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TheMeyersReport_06_20_2025_Fast_15
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00:00There's a winter storm warning right now for Glacier National Park in Montana.
00:05They're expecting a foot of snow.
00:07Hold on a second. A foot of snow, and we're almost into July?
00:15Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Myers Report.
00:19It is Friday, June 20th, the Fast 15, the day after Juneteenth.
00:27Another holiday.
00:30Okay, what we have seen so far, interestingly enough, despite everything that's going on,
00:36what we have seen is that the markets don't seem to be getting affected by much.
00:44The oil is up, yeah, to roughly $74 a barrel,
00:49but it was at $79 a barrel back when President Trump went into office.
00:55And in the last month, it has gone up, the last 20 days, it's gone up from $63 up to $74,
01:05but that's not huge. It's not like crisis proportions.
01:10And the S&P 500 is still only, what, 200 points below its all-time high,
01:18and it seems to be not being impacted that much by what is happening elsewhere in the world.
01:26The U.S. is deploying a squadron of F-22 Raptors to the Middle East.
01:34It's also sending the Gerald Ford, which is due to leave Norfolk in the next, I guess, two days.
01:41And the USS Nimitz was deployed from the South China Sea.
01:46It's interesting, both of these aircraft carriers can travel as much as 1,000 miles a day,
01:53which, considering from Norfolk to the Eastern Med is roughly 6,000 miles,
01:59that means these carriers can be in position in less than, in a week,
02:04maybe a little less, maybe a day less, or a day later, depending upon how far they push it.
02:10The point is this ties in with President Trump's desire to give Iran two weeks,
02:18so that they'll either come to task or they won't.
02:21Russia and China, where forecasting will not be involved,
02:26regardless of what happens with Trump and Iran.
02:29The reason is, in the long term, it's really not in their interest to do so,
02:33and the other is that their ability to do anything is severely limited.
02:38This is despite some media saying, beware of China and Russia.
02:42I think those media are more interested in selling subscriptions and pushing precious metals.
02:48As we all know, right now, it's a strange situation.
02:54Other Arab states, such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and, well, the UK is not really an Arab state,
03:03but nonetheless, they've been helping shoot down Iranian missiles.
03:09The EU, obviously, has not been particularly supportive.
03:12While Israel has been hitting Iranian nuclear facilities, particularly the Natanz enrichment structure,
03:24the enrichment facility, deeper underground facilities like Fordow present a greater challenge.
03:30While people are saying Trump is deciding whether or not to deploy our own bunker busters,
03:37the fact is our own people are telling us that the Israelis already have these things
03:42and have the capacity to deliver.
03:46I think that the biggest issue isn't whether or not it can be hit.
03:52The question really is whether or not there'll be any fallout, literally a fallout.
03:59But we will see.
04:01Our forecast is that there will be a resolution within the next few weeks, hopefully.
04:09Not because President Trump necessarily says so, that that is very impactful,
04:15but also because the status quo is completely unsustainable.
04:19Assuming we are right, we're going to forecast something else.
04:23Assuming we are right, other results, collateral results, could be stunning.
04:27In addition to Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis collapsing for lack of funds and support,
04:33we could look at something similar happening with Nigeria's Boko Haram and other sub-Saharan regions.
04:40Plus, look for South Africa's ANC ruling party to come under severe pressure because of loss of money
04:47from Iran, USAID, which was funding them,
04:52and other governmental pressures that the U.S. is going to have.
04:57The bonus could also be that during the next 12 to 18 months,
05:03China's influence in Africa will recede,
05:06which is important when you're talking about strategic minerals.
05:10Okay, with that being said,
05:13Don, are we really getting snow in the U.S. right now?
05:19What about the rest of the country?
05:21It's going to be a wild weekend of weather across the United States.
05:24We've got a massive heat wave.
05:25Okay, how wild will it be?
05:28Remember the movie Blazing Saddles when he came off on his horse and says,
05:33What in the wide, wild world of sports is going on around here?
05:37That's kind of where we're headed.
05:39I mean, we're going to have everything across the nation.
05:42So we've got a massive heat wave in the central and the east.
05:45That's going to be rather persistent.
05:46The hottest weather of the summer, early summer, is coming basically east of the Mississippi to the east coast.
05:54There will be some big thunderstorms as well, but the heat will make the headlines.
05:57There's a winter storm warning right now for Glacier National Park in Montana.
06:02They're expecting a foot of snow.
06:05Hold on a second.
06:05A foot of snow and we're almost into July?
06:08Well, yeah.
06:10Today is the first official day of summer.
06:13And it will probably snow in Yellowstone Park.
06:17There will be places that will go below freezing in parts of the north central United States while we have a heat wave over the eastern side of the country.
06:27But you will hear all – well, where you guys are, you're going to feel it for sure.
06:34So on average, John, what you're saying, on average, the temperature is normal.
06:38Yeah.
06:39Yeah, basically.
06:41So, yeah, so it's going to be wild.
06:43There's a huge contrast across the United States and North America.
06:48So, you know, it's been an interesting spring, and now it's going to be an interesting summer to see how the patterns evolve for sure.
06:55Don, while considering weather conditions for warfighting is somewhat grotesque, it is our sad reality of today.
07:05In Iran, obviously, pressure is building for everything that's going on.
07:09What is your forecast of weather conditions for warfighting there, as well as the civil unrest demonstrations, over the next figure seven to 14 days?
07:21Well, there's really not going to be any change.
07:22The weather we talked about last week was going to be some fair, dry, very warm weather, which is typical for this time of year there.
07:30That's going to continue.
07:31So the weather, at least here for another week, is not going to be a factor.
07:35So it'll be suitable for demonstrations and for warfighting is what you're saying.
07:39Yes.
07:40That's strange news.
07:43Let's not forget Russia and Ukraine, their war.
07:46How is the weather out there?
07:47Well, they're getting into their summer season.
07:50It's getting drier as well.
07:54So, again, I hate to say this, but if you're going to have a war, this is the weather you want.
08:01Okay.
08:02Isaac, are sea shipping routes being affected by activity in the Middle East and the Iranian situation?
08:10Yeah, surprisingly, not by much, and that's mainly due to the fact that a lot of the larger steamship lines have already rerouted back when everything, you know, when the whole Israel-Gaza situation started in 2023.
08:26So the simple answer is no, not much disruption.
08:32They've already went around it.
08:35They're going around Africa.
08:36It added about an extra 10 days and about 20% more in shipping costs to get to the United States.
08:42With the recent spike in fuel costs, how are the carriers being affected domestically?
08:50No, no, they're being affected in a huge way, as I've been reporting.
08:56I take it huge is not good.
08:58Huge is very, very bad.
09:00Right now, yeah.
09:02So, as you know, right, we've been talking about this freight recession that has prolonged our industry for 36 months.
09:09So, we are in, so not only is fuel skyrocketing, a lot of these smaller carriers get most of their work off of load boards, the open marketplace, whether they do not benefit from a fuel surcharge versus some larger and mid-sized carriers have contractual work with direct shippers and do get a fuel surcharge.
09:31So, fuel goes up, we get more fuel surcharge.
09:33Fuel goes down, we get less.
09:35A lot of these smaller guys don't benefit from that.
09:38So, with the exodus that has been going on, especially that is ramped up here in the beginning of 25, I think I reported last week that in April, 7,500 carriers went out of business.
09:53This is going to be another twist in the rib here for a lot of carriers who just simply can't afford it.
10:00A lot of carriers are running out of steam.
10:02Mind you, this is all while we are kind of in this belly of the beast of slow period from the Trump tariffs that happened.
10:12We're waiting for the surge, but we're still about three weeks away from that.
10:16We're probably in the lowest point in terms of import volumes that we've seen since the beginning of this year.
10:24And compiled fuel on top of that, it's a bad time for carriers right now.
10:28Okay, we're now just about, we're ready, we're just about ready to enter the second half of the year, beginning July 1st.
10:36What do you see in store for the trucking industry for the rest of 25?
10:40I think we're going to start seeing, finally, balance, capacity start to balance out.
10:47A lot of the reason, most, the most reason, the primary reason, rather, that we went into a freight recession is because of excess capacity.
10:56Way too much capacity entered our market in 2021, 2020 and 2021.
11:01Now, we bled a lot of that capacity, but there's still a lot lingering today.
11:05With the fact that fuel prices are up, you know, it's going to be another exodus that happens.
11:11With the fact that imports are at an all-time low, a lot of carriers, again, we can't make it until Monday morning right now.
11:18And you have the Trump executive order in full swing now with the English proficiency.
11:25So you've got CDLs being turned off every single day.
11:29So capacity is going to be reduced?
11:32In a very big way.
11:34ATRI, the American Trucking Research Institute for American Trucking Association, came out and reported something that was quite frightening.
11:41There's 4% of truck drivers in America have a fraudulent CDL.
11:47Bob, with respect to the strange events of the week, of which there have been many, the markets don't seem to be reacting that strongly.
11:58What is your view?
11:59No, if you look over a two-week period, nothing has happened in the stock market.
12:03And the same is true for the fixed income markets.
12:07The fixed income markets are really kind of balanced at what I call a key level.
12:12It's on the 10-year yield is 4.5%.
12:16And it's just slightly below that, but a little tick and it gets right above that.
12:21So we're at a very critical point.
12:24And why I say 4.5% is such a key level is that when rates go below that, it appears that the market is more confident than ever that we're going to get inflation under control.
12:35But when it goes above that, interest rates go higher, people get nervous, and it appears that we have less containment of inflation.
12:45It seems to me that we do have inflation under control.
12:52Obviously, the month of June and possibly July are going to show an increase in inflation because of fuel prices going up.
13:00But assuming that things get under control in the next two weeks, you're going to see fuel prices coming down.
13:08Even if they come back into our projected of $55 to $65 a barrel for the year, that's going to be read as a decrease in costs from $75, which is a significant reduction in inflation.
13:24Yeah, well, one of the things we've been saying is there will be bumps in the road that we're not going to go down immediately.
13:29We already know it's in the bag that June is going to be high because of the jump in oil prices relative to the previous month.
13:37And if July stays up, that'll be two months in a row.
13:41Now, the year-over-year inflation rates are somewhere in the vicinity of 2.5%.
13:45That could drive them up to the 3% vicinity, and that's a nervous place for the Fed to be.
13:54And again, if those oil prices in June and July kind of spook the inflation numbers and we start to see something going up toward 3%,
14:04you're going to see those long-term interest rates go above the 4.5% mark.
14:10So what I'm saying is I think we're in the right direction.
14:13I believe that we're going to be okay.
14:15But we've still got some nasty bumps in the road ahead, and we've got to get over those before we're going to see clear sailing.
14:24Okay. Assuming we avoid World War III, which I think we will.
14:28And that's a safe projection because if we do have World War III, we're not going to be on here.
14:35Yes, it'll be limited.
14:38What's your call for the stock markets for the next quarter?
14:42Wow. It's really a tough one.
14:45A market is overvalued significantly.
14:47Anyone buying today, you're paying 43% above what a normal value would be.
14:53However, corporate profits have been really good, and the analysts are predicting that that's going to continue into the future.
15:01So just being 43% overvalued doesn't tell us where the market is going next.
15:06We have a short-term momentum indicator that's based strictly on the momentum in the market.
15:13And that momentum indicator turned positive at the beginning of May, and it's been extremely positive ever since.
15:21Right now, past five days, we're looking at 90% probability that we will continue this upward move in the market.
15:30So, clearly, investors are optimistic.
15:35I'm optimistic that things are going to turn out well.
15:38If they don't turn out well, that's where we have trouble in the market.
15:42Okay, so do you think that our forecast of the S&P 500 hitting 7,000 this year is very real?
15:49Absolutely.
15:50All we have to do is get everything to go in the right direction, Gary.
15:52Bob, is it possible for this, if this, yeah, there's no huge turns that causes the stock market to plummet here, do we get to 60%, 70% overvalued?
16:06Oh, yeah.
16:07We've been over 100% overvalued in the past.
16:10That was a dot-com boom that occurred at the turn of the century.
16:15Yeah, we were 100% overvalued.
16:18So just because we're high doesn't mean we can't go higher.
16:20But, obviously, the risks of something going wrong get greater and greater when you get that high.
16:27Okay.
16:28Are you optimistic about our future, Don Day?
16:33Yes, sir.
16:34So you're still optimistic.
16:36How about you, Isaac, despite all the prevails?
16:39I think what's crazy is, with all the different changes, like, I really have to think about this question week over week.
16:45I really do.
16:46But, yes, Andrew, I'm still optimistic.
16:51Yeah, I am, too.
16:54I'm doing an awful lot of work trying to figure out what's happening with the money supply.
16:58And, at least at the moment, I believe that we have enough money in the system that we're not heading into a problem like we did in 2008 for the financial crisis.
17:08There is sufficient money in the system, not for a blow-off in the economy, but at least to keep the economy moving in an upward direction.
17:16It seems that the Fed has stopped taking money out of the system.
17:20They've been flat now for almost two months.
17:23Yeah, two months.
17:25Hopefully, we're going to the third month where they're not taking money out of the system.
17:29But, also, there are two measures of money, and we'll have another discussion on that when we have more time.
17:39Okay.
17:39I am very optimistic.
17:41I think that things are shaping up in the world that are looking very positive.
17:48If we can get the Middle East, we'll get Iran taken care of.
17:52All sorts of problems elsewhere in the world tied to Iran come to a positive outcome.
18:00With that, I want to say thank you.
18:02Be well.
18:03Have a good weekend.
18:04Stay safe.
18:05And God bless America.
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