- 9 months ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 26/03/2025.
Turning cooler and more unsettled this weekend. Then high pressure builds back in but will there be sunshine?
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Honor Criswick.
Turning cooler and more unsettled this weekend. Then high pressure builds back in but will there be sunshine?
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Honor Criswick.
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NewsTranscript
00:00The warm spring sunshine is soon going to be replaced over the weekend by something
00:04slightly cooler and a little bit more unsettled. But if you're not a fan, we have high pressure
00:09building next week. But does that mean it's going to be warm and sunny? Well, firstly,
00:13let's take a look at the bigger picture and we can see a ridge of high pressure here on
00:17Wednesday and that's brought quite a pleasant afternoon for many of us enjoying that warm
00:20weather and the sunshine, particularly across parts of the south and southeast. This soon
00:25being replaced, though, by cloud outbreaks of rain across the far northwest to start
00:29with. So starting off that more unsettled spell of weather towards the end of the week.
00:33But it should be said that across into Thursday, many central and southern parts should see
00:38once again another fine start to the day. Once again, some mist and fog to start. And
00:42then we see something more widespread, more widespread and unsettled as this cold front
00:46edges its way towards the southeast. And it may linger here for a time on Friday, bringing
00:50quite a damp start across East Anglia and parts of southeast England. Not only this,
00:55but it drags in some slightly colder air. Now, it's not going to be particularly chilly,
00:59but it is going to feel much cooler than it has done of late. But once again, another
01:03ridge of high pressure building, but low pressure once again, never too far away, just in time
01:07for the weekend. Before we get on to that, though, let's take a look at some of the details
01:11for tomorrow. So with clear skies overnight, we tend to see mist and fog, particularly
01:16during this time of year. But it does tend to ease away quite quickly through the course
01:20of the morning. So a chance we could see this across central and southern parts turning
01:24brighter through the course of the morning, but very different story across parts of Scotland,
01:28Northern Ireland, more cloud here, some outbreaks of rain. So a very wet start and it persists
01:33all the way into the afternoon. Some quite heavy outbreaks at times, too, and fairly
01:37blustery, particularly around exposed coasts and under those cloudier skies. But central
01:42areas, particularly across the south and southeast, seeing once again plenty of sunny spells and
01:46highs of 17 to 18 degrees Celsius. So feeling pleasant once again. Then we start to see
01:53a change into something slightly more unsettled. It starts off into the evening as we start
01:57to see this cold front drift its way south eastwards, turning more widespread across
02:01the country, dragging in that slightly cooler air. And notice a few more isobars on the
02:05chart, too, starting to turn a bit more breezy as we head into Friday. So that's when we'll
02:10begin to start to see a little bit of a change. Now, as I've already mentioned, this cold
02:14front might just linger for a time across parts of East Anglia, Sussex and Kent, for
02:18example. So a damp start here. Elsewhere, a little bit brighter, but it's not going
02:23to be totally dry. Still plenty of showers moving their way in from the west. And as
02:26we saw that colder air moving in, some of these showers could actually bring a little
02:30bit of snow, particularly across western parts of Scotland. But this once again, mainly across
02:34hilly areas, some quite heavy showers at times to perhaps hail the old rumble of thunder,
02:39particularly around coasts of Scotland. And it's still going to be fairly blustery, too.
02:43So it's not going to be particularly pleasant, but we will see some sunny spells in between
02:47those showers. And elsewhere, northern parts of England, central parts, parts of Wales
02:52and the southwest. Still a bright day ahead. It is going to be feeling cooler, though,
02:55and still can't rule out some showers, particularly around western areas. But notice that drop
03:00in temperatures highs this time only reaching around 13 degrees Celsius. So feeling a little
03:04bit cooler and a bit fresher. And it's not going to be totally dry either. Then how about
03:10as we head into the weekend? We'll eventually say goodbye to that cold front and we'll see
03:14once again another ridge of high pressure building for a short time. And then we need
03:18to keep our eyes on the jet stream. Now, what it does as we head into Saturday, we have
03:23an area of low pressure to the north. This is the global model that we use at the Met
03:27office. And what it does is moves in this area of low pressure towards the cold side
03:31of the jet. And what this can mean is that it undergoes rapid deepening as we see more
03:36divergence aloft, so more air lifting. And that could mean some slightly stronger winds
03:40across parts of the north and some heavy outbreaks of rain. But actually, it's not
03:44quite the preferred solution. We have other models such as our European model or American
03:48model that actually has the jet stream slightly shifted further north. So it doesn't move
03:53this area of low pressure into that colder air, that colder air mass. So it doesn't undergo
03:57any kind of rapid deepening. And that means the winds won't be as strong and the rain
04:01won't be as heavy. So at the moment, this is a little bit of an outlier. Nevertheless,
04:04though, there is a chance of seeing some outbreaks of rain, some breezy weather across the north,
04:09but across the southeast, once again, a fairly settled day until we see some rain and some
04:13showers later into the day. But notice that jet stream still stays to the north of the
04:17country. And this allows high pressure to build in as we head into next week. I just
04:23want to rewind the clock for a little bit just to say that, yes, there is a chance of
04:26seeing some wet and windy weather, mainly in western parts. But this feature is a largely
04:30weakening feature as it moves southeast. So for many across central and southeastern areas
04:34on Saturday, a largely fine day, some showers following on behind, at least for the beginning
04:39of Sunday. But then once again, that ridge of high pressure building and that's going
04:42to kill off any showers, at least until we finish off the weekend on Sunday. Now, then
04:48we want to focus on that area of high pressure, don't we? That's going to build into next
04:52week. And there's a fairly good signal over the next couple of weeks or so that we are
04:55going to see that high pressure stick around all the way through into the beginning of
04:59April. Now, if we just take a look at some of the detail at first, it does look like
05:03the red colours, so high pressure dominating across the U.K. But if we look at some of
05:07the numbers, particularly for kind of the latest model run, which we find at the top
05:12here and as we move away further down, these are earlier model runs. And what we notice
05:16is that earlier on, perhaps yesterday, we saw some quite high percentages for that high
05:21pressure dominating across the U.K. But the latest model runs, the percentages aren't
05:26quite as high. And that's just indicating perhaps some different flavours of high pressure.
05:31So perhaps not high pressure, clear skies, warm and sunny, but perhaps something slightly
05:35different. And it all really depends on whereabouts that high pressure is going to sit. This is
05:41shown quite nicely in the probability plot. So, yes, as we head into the first week of
05:45April, lots of the red colours, so once again, high pressure dominating. But you can see
05:49by the different kind of red that we get is the different kind of high pressure. So a
05:52chance it could be to the north or perhaps more to the south with an Azores high extension
05:58across the U.K. And this does have a big impact on the kind of weather we can expect
06:02and the kind of temperatures we can expect, too. So as we head into the middle part of
06:06next week on Wednesday, it could look something like this. High pressure situated to the east,
06:11still bringing us a southerly flow of air, so temperatures around average, if not above.
06:15So once again, likely that we'll see some warm, sunny spells as we head into next week
06:18and that high pressure begins to dominate more and more. As you know, here at the Met
06:23Office, we don't just look at one model and we don't just look at one model run. For
06:27example, our Mogreps Global model that we use, that's run over 30 times here at the
06:33Met Office and we change those initial conditions and then we tweak what we could see at the
06:38beginning and that gives us slightly different outcomes as we move forward in time. Now,
06:43what we notice taking a look at all the different members of this model is that most of the
06:46time they agree and we do actually have high pressure situated to the east, giving us that
06:50warm southerly flow. But there's a couple of outliers that have that high pressure just
06:55situated slightly further to the southeast and that allows low pressure more to the northwest.
07:00So once again, there's a chance that we could see something a little bit wet, a little bit
07:03windy, particularly across parts of the northwest. But still a fairly similar situation as to
07:10what we could see over the next couple of days, central and southern areas still seeing
07:13fine and dry conditions. But these are the only two members really that indicate that
07:16kind of direction and they're not really the preferred solution and most of the time we
07:21see that high pressure still situated out to the east. Now, towards the end of the week,
07:27once again, it's likely that that high pressure will shift slightly, so moving perhaps slightly
07:31further northeastwards. And what we could find with this is that still temperatures
07:35widely above average, so still feeling mild for the time of year, but it's likely that
07:39the driest of the conditions, if we see a bit more of an easterly component to that
07:43wind, the drier conditions will be slightly more to the west. Now, I'm not saying it's
07:48going to be particularly wet across the east, but what we do find at this time of year with
07:52that easterly flow brings in some moisture from the North Sea, so we can get a little
07:56bit of low cloud moving into the eastern areas, some sea fret or some har. And we have had
08:01situations where that can stick around through much of the day and with more cloud around,
08:05that means things aren't going to get quite as warm and you're not going to see as much
08:07sunshine in these areas as well. The only difference at the moment is that if we take
08:11a look at the sea surface temperature normally, so the temperatures compared to average across
08:17the ocean, so the redder colours showing above average, whereas the blue colours showing
08:22below average, what we see across the North Sea is actually sea surface temperatures are
08:27quite warm for the time of year. Now, what that means is if we do start to see any moisture
08:32being dragged up across North Sea coasts, yes, it could bring in a little bit of sea
08:36fog, some low cloud to these areas, but because the seas are slightly warmer, that shifts
08:42and decreases the temperature difference between the land and the sea. So although we could
08:46see some low cloud moving through, it's likely to be a bit patchier, perhaps not lingering
08:51around those North Sea coasts as much. So we may see it in the morning and then that
08:54warm spring sunshine warm enough to burn it back. But nevertheless, there is still a chance
08:58that we could see a little bit of that, particularly if that high pressure is situated to the northeast.
09:03Now, more on temperatures, as I've already mentioned, it is going to be turning that
09:06little bit cooler over the weekend with the more unsettled conditions. But as that high
09:10pressure builds into next week, we can take a look at what the temperatures are going
09:14to be doing. So once again, obviously, still very dependent on whereabouts that high pressure
09:17is going to sit. But it is largely agreed across the models that will have high pressure
09:22at some point situated across the UK. And with that, we could see some quite warm temperatures,
09:27even though as we move further in time, we can see these boxes getting bigger. So the
09:30spread of potential temperatures getting larger. But even though the spread is quite big, for
09:34example, in northern areas, they're still mostly above this red line, which is the climatological
09:40average for the time of year. So even though there is more spread as we move further into
09:44the future for both northern and southern parts, which is what we would expect, it is
09:49still mainly above that red line. So it's still likely to remain mild. It's not looking
09:52like we're going to see any more cold spells on the horizon. So slightly unsettled over
09:58the weekend, high pressure building next week, but it looks like it should be staying mild
10:02and still some sunny spells in places. And of course, for more updates day to day, you
10:06can subscribe to our YouTube channel. Bye bye.
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