00:00Hello and welcome to this week's 10-day trend. It's felt like the beginning of the year has
00:05been largely wet and windy, but a change is on its way. It's not going to be straight
00:09away and it's not quite going to be everywhere. To start off though, let's take a look at
00:14the bigger picture. So for the beginning of the week, it's largely been low pressure dominating
00:18the weather. There's been lots of dry weather around here on Wednesday, but lots of wet
00:22and windy weather as a result of this area of low pressure just to the south, bringing
00:25quite a wet day across Channel Islands and southern counties. But once that drifts away,
00:31that does allow a ridge of high pressure to stretch across the country. So that means
00:34Thursday is actually going to be largely dry and settled, lots of sunshine around. They
00:39can't rule out a few pesky showers, particularly around coastal areas of the north. I'm afraid
00:44this ridge of high pressure is fairly brief though. We've still got a good cold plume
00:48stretching across parts of North America and that's really driving our jet stream as it
00:54meanders into the Atlantic, largely moving northwards, so dragging areas of low pressure
00:59towards Greenland and Iceland. But that does still allow them to sweep in some frontal
01:03systems, particularly to the northwest of the country, where it's largely going to be
01:06wet and windy towards the end of the week. And then we almost end up with a bit of a
01:11battleground between this wet and windy weather towards the northwest. That's moving up against
01:15this area of high pressure down towards the southeast. And then as we head into February,
01:22that really makes a difference as to what's going to happen with our weather. It really
01:26depends on this location of the high pressure. And it could be the difference between something
01:29quite cold compared to something above average for the time of year. More on that in a moment
01:35though. Firstly, let's take a look at Thursday. So as that ridge of high pressure builds,
01:40that means there's going to be plenty of clear skies overnight. So a chilly night ahead,
01:44likely to see quite a widespread frost. Also some icy stretches, particularly across Northern
01:48Ireland and parts of Scotland. So do take care if you're out and about during the early
01:52hours of the morning. But it should brighten up nicely through the course of the day. Plenty
01:56of sunshine and dry weather. As I said earlier, they can't rule out a few showers, particularly
02:01towards the northeast of Scotland. Quite a brisk breeze here, too. So that's really going
02:05to take the edge off the temperatures here. Also, some showers merging into longer spells
02:09of rain across parts of Shetland. Also, the odd shower around northwestern coasts of Scotland,
02:15northwestern parts of England and northern parts of Wales, too. But for the most part,
02:18a dry day, plenty of sunshine around and temperatures around about average for the
02:22time of year. But as I say, perhaps feeling just a little bit chillier to the northeast
02:26of Scotland. Then behind me, you can see this frontal system edging its way in from the
02:32west. By the time we reach Friday morning, that slowly shifted its way towards the southeast.
02:36So it's going to be quite a wet start, particularly across parts of the south, central parts of
02:41England, also parts of Lincolnshire and Yorkshire can see quite a wet start. This will eventually
02:46drift its way further southeastwards, affecting parts of East Anglia, Sussex and Kent, parts
02:51of the southeast through the course of the morning. But behind it, it's still going to
02:55leave plenty of clouds, still even some odd spots of drizzle, particularly around hilly
03:00areas. But it's not all doom and gloom. We should also see some brighter weather, particularly
03:05across Northern Ireland, northern and northeastern parts of Scotland, also southern parts of
03:09Wales. Devon and Cornwall should start to see some sunshine by the time we reach the
03:13afternoon temperatures once again around about average for the time of year, perhaps
03:17not something slightly milder just to the southwest. Now, once again, you can see behind
03:22me another frontal system. So another area of cloud and rain starting to edge its way
03:27in from the west. But the difference is this time this one doesn't move its way too far
03:31inland. That's as it's pushing up against that area of high pressure that showed you
03:34earlier towards the southeast. Still, though, it is going to bring some thicker areas of
03:39cloud, perhaps even some rain just edging into western parts of Scotland and some fairly
03:43blustery winds as it moves into the northwest, too. But elsewhere, it should be largely dry.
03:48There is still going to be plenty of cloud around, so quite a murky start to the day.
03:52That's away from the southeast, though we could see a fair amount of sunshine here that
03:55will build through the course of the day. And we could also see the cloud break up at
03:59times, giving some brighter spells. And it is going to be largely dry, though that frontal
04:03system still continues to slowly edge its way in from the west and turning very blustery
04:07here, too. It's also bringing in some slightly milder air for western parts of Scotland,
04:12Northern Ireland, but elsewhere, once again, those temperatures around about average. Then
04:18as we head into the second half of the weekend, it does still move its way southeastwards.
04:24This is the same frontal system. So once again, quite a wet start across parts of Scotland,
04:29northwestern parts of England and Wales and parts of the very far southeast. This rain
04:32could be a little bit heavy at times, too, as it edges its way inwards. Also, once again,
04:36those very blustery winds moving through a chance we could even see some gales across
04:40the far northwest of Scotland. Once again, slowly trying to move its way towards the
04:45southeast, but it doesn't really move very far as it pushes up against the high pressure.
04:50So it rather stalls across northwestern parts of England and Wales. But the rain largely
04:55starting to fizzle out as it moves its way southeastward. So once again, some drips and
04:59drabs of rain and drizzle, but largely just an area of cloud. But to the far northwest
05:04away from this system, once again, things should start to brighten up during the course
05:07of the afternoon across Northern Ireland, western parts of Wales. But still, once again,
05:11very blustery here. And also, once again, across parts of East Anglia, Sussex and Kent,
05:16we could start to see some brighter weather before that frontal system moves through.
05:20Temperatures once again around about average, but likely feeling a little bit chillier under
05:23those cloudier skies. Then what about after that? Well, the frontal system I just showed
05:29you eventually moves its way towards the southeast. And then once again, we start to
05:34see this bit of a battleground between the northwest system, wet and windy weather moving
05:38in here, battling up against this area of high pressure across central and southern
05:42parts of the UK. So it's sort of a twist between low pressure and high pressure. But which
05:47one wins out? Well, taking a look at the stacked bar chart here, we can see more blue colours
05:53at the start of the period. That's a flavour of low pressure of some sort. And then as
05:58we head further into February, we can see more of these reds and these yellows and that
06:02indicates high pressure dominating. But as I say, it does really depend on whereabouts
06:07the high pressure sits and what kind of weather conditions we'll see. So it could look something
06:12like this by the time we reach Wednesday. So high pressure largely sitting to the south.
06:16So once again, lots of fine and dry weather across central and southern parts of the UK.
06:21But I'm afraid it's a fairly cold high. So we could see some pockets of frost, even some
06:25fog where we see the more settled conditions. And across the far northwest, that's once
06:30again where we've drawn the short straw, some wet and windy weather also likely here across
06:35the northwest of Scotland, perhaps northwestern parts of Northern Ireland. Then as we head
06:41towards the end of next week, as I say, it's really dependent on whereabouts that high
06:45pressure sits. Now, this is the most favoured solution. So once again, that area of high
06:50pressure staying to the south of the UK. So that means it is going to be wet and windy
06:54to the northwest, but still seeing something slightly milder here across southern and central
06:59parts of the UK. Temperatures around about average, if not slightly below. But it is
07:04going to be largely settled. It doesn't mean glorious sunshine throughout the whole throughout
07:09the whole time, but it should be largely dry away from the far northwest. There's also
07:15another option, not the favoured solution, I might add, but that's with an area of high
07:20pressure over Scandinavia and that drags in some easterly winds. So that means at this
07:26time of the year, quite cold conditions, perhaps even some flurries of snow if we see any showers
07:31move through. As I say, it's not the favoured solution, but there is a chance we could see
07:36something colder on the cards as we head into the first week of February. As I say, it's
07:42not the favoured solution. At the moment, it does look like high pressure sat to the
07:45south, so something slightly milder, but perhaps below average across central and southern
07:50parts of the UK. And there's also another solution, 9% chance of that area of high pressure
07:55slightly further south. So that's going to be dragging in the wet and windy weather across
08:00a more widespread area of the UK and also something slightly milder. But as I say, as
08:04it stands, it looks like the area of high pressure to the south. So milder, yes, across
08:09the northwest, wet and windy here, but largely settled across the south. As I say, could
08:15still be a fair amount of cloud around, some fog and also some frost at times too. So high
08:20pressure building in for February, yes, but as I say, it's not going to be quite everywhere.
08:26For day-to-day updates, if you haven't already, don't forget you can subscribe to our YouTube
08:30channel. Otherwise, that's it from me. Bye bye.
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