Ukraine could 'drive out' Putin if US armed Ukraine 'to the teeth', allowed attacks deep into Russia

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00:00There is a lot happening at the Munich Security Conference today, a lot of news, a lot of

00:14developments in the past few hours with European and US foreign leaders there. Ukraine's President

00:19Zelensky due to meet US Vice President J.D. Vance two days after Donald Trump had that

00:2690-minute phone call with President Putin that appears to have significantly changed

00:30the dynamic in the Ukraine war. And J.D. Vance's speech has not gone down well with those in

00:36the room. That's an understatement. He's been accused by European diplomats of lecturing

00:40them. Germany's Defence Minister has said Vance's speech was, quote, not acceptable

00:45and shocking and there was barely an applause. Let's have a listen to some of that message

00:50from J.D. Vance today.

00:53The threat that I worry the most about vis-a-vis Europe is not Russia, it's not China, it's

00:59not any other external actor. And what I worry about is the threat from within. The retreat

01:06of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States

01:11of America. In Washington, there is a new sheriff in town. And under Donald Trump's

01:17leadership, we may disagree with your views, but we will fight to defend your right to

01:22offer it in the public square, agree or disagree.

01:26So J.D. Vance calling on European leaders to engage, to listen. Well, the mantra of

01:33the whole Munich Security Conference going since the end of the Second World War is to

01:37interact with each other. Don't ignore one another. That's what is called the Munich

01:42rule. It underpins the conference of foreign ministers are told that's what should govern

01:46the conversation. And the security conference, as I say, set up as a forum to meet and allies

01:52for Germany after the NATO military alliance was created. So the worry today is that they

01:57are being lectured, being ignored. It goes further. J.D. Vance also called on European

02:03policy to be changed on immigration, referring as well to a recent car ramming attack by

02:08an Afghan suspect in the same city yesterday.

02:13How many times must we suffer these appalling setbacks before we change course and take

02:19our shared civilisation in a new direction? No voter on this continent went to the ballot

02:27box to open the floodgates to millions of unvetted immigrants.

02:33J.D. Vance speaking. Let's cross to Munich. Let's bring in Yevgenia Kravchuk, who is at

02:39the security conference and a Ukrainian MP from President Zelensky's party, the Servant

02:43of the People party. Great to talk to you tonight, Yevgenia. First of all, were you

02:48in the room when J.D. Vance was speaking? Well, I listened for sure his speech and it

02:55was right after speech of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. So maybe that's

03:01why it looked like a bit as a cold shower to those who were listening to the speech

03:07and with, you know, coming from the European continent. But actually, J.D. Vance didn't

03:14say anything that he hadn't said before or someone from the current administration said.

03:23And he did emphasise that Europe should step in more in the terms of security. That's

03:29also not something new. Interesting. Boris Pistorius, Germany's defence minister and

03:34foreign leader as well, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, both saying it was shocking, it

03:38was not appropriate. You're saying this was part of the course of what you get with Americans.

03:43You didn't find it lecturing? Well, it did look like a lecture and actually afterwards

03:48I was at the conversation with US congressmen from both parties and those who were coming

03:55from the Democrat side said the same thing that they felt it did sound like a lecture.

04:02Well, in any case, this is a security conference that is in Europe. So, you know, it is important

04:09and United States administration comes to Europe to speak about security. I think it

04:14also has to be acknowledged, well, to my mind. Given what he's also said today, because as

04:21I mentioned at the start, there's a number of developments. One of those that he spoke

04:24to the Wall Street Journal. He said to the Wall Street Journal that basically Russia,

04:30after the Trump phone call on Wednesday, could face punishment, tariffs when it comes to

04:35energy. Also, didn't rule out military force. Didn't go into any detail. That was vague.

04:40But that's very different or at least harsher than the conversation where President Trump's

04:44been accused of appeasement, saying that it's unlikely that Ukraine would get NATO membership

04:50and get its whole borders back pre-2014 after this Putin conversation. Where do you stand

04:56on that? A. Do you trust Donald Trump on Ukraine? And J.D. Vance too?

05:02Well, I truly believe that Trump's administration does want to end the war. The question is

05:12on what terms and what it will cost, not just Ukraine, but European continent and Europe

05:18and whether this peace will be long lasting and just. That is the main question. And what

05:24security guarantees will lie behind this possible treaty? So far, the plan hasn't been announced

05:34and our delegation and President Zelensky do not have the details yet. So it's hard

05:43to discuss. But indeed, this interview that J.D. Vance gave to the Wall Street Journal

05:48is probably the most strong words that were used personally by him, but also by administration,

05:57saying that Russia will face economic consequences if the Kremlin will not cooperate. But yet

06:05we need to explore all the details. And also, I think the outcome of the war cannot be to

06:13reward the aggressor. I mean, if you attack another country, you need to be punished,

06:18not rewarded. Do you think it was appeasement, if any, of the conversation that Donald Trump

06:24had? Well, I wasn't on the conversation, basically. What he said afterwards? What he said afterwards?

06:31Was that appeasement? In true social and everything. It's too early to say that, you know, the

06:40actual steps are appeasement. Of course, the tone of voice to Ukrainians that are suffering

06:45of the attacks by Russian Federation, you know, it was too nice. But that's coming from

06:53our side. But we need to see the steps. That's the most important thing. The steps, concrete

07:00steps, and how to make Ukraine stronger. And also, not to forget Europe in this process.

07:08And I think it's a very good decision to have this Weimar declaration in Paris, actually,

07:13with the ministers of foreign affairs saying that we're not going to be set aside, because

07:19this is European continent and Ukraine will be part of EU eventually.

07:26We're getting live pictures, Yevgenia, as we're talking. This is in the room right now

07:30at the Munich Security Conference between Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president,

07:34and his team on one side. J.D. Vance smiles, talks to the camera, what they call the press

07:39five minute, where they quickly do a round table before they go again. So this meeting

07:43happening now. Stay with us, Yevgenia. I want to bring in John Herbst as well. Also in Munich,

07:48the former US ambassador to Ukraine, 2003 to 2006, under President George Bush. Great

07:54to speak to you this evening, Ambassador Herbst. Can I ask you the same question?

07:59Well, Yevgenia is with us too. We're watching these live images, John. What did you make

08:06of what J.D. Vance said today? Diplomatically, was it shocking or not?

08:11Well, I can understand why he ruffled feathers in Europe with his talk about the European

08:20and American values, his assertion that Europe was stepping back from those values, and his

08:26defense of the Trump policy on immigration. And so that's part of it. But I think from my

08:36standpoint, what's most important is what relates to the security of Europe, security of Ukraine,

08:42security of the United States. And we've seen in the past, since Trump won the election,

08:52I think we've seen the outline of Trump's basic approach. It's not official yet, but

08:58we keep hearing the same kind of ideas that they'll need to be compromised by both Russia

09:05and Ukraine. Ukrainian compromise requires some territory and requires at least a 20-year

09:11moratorium on joining NATO. And Russian compromise would come in the form of accepting a demilitarized

09:19zone with European peacekeepers to deter future Russian aggression and major arms to Ukraine

09:25to deter future Russian aggression. And some statements made by President Trump after his

09:31call with Putin have called into question whether he was going to hang firm on the Russian things

09:36that would require compromise by Russia. But then I think Vance, in his interview with The Wall

09:41Street Journal, reaffirmed the concept that Russia has to compromise for this plan to work.

09:46But if we look, John, given what Evgeny has said, you both kind of strike the most

09:53pragmatic tone right now, essentially saying, let's see where this goes. But when President

09:57Trump was asked in the Oval Office about President Zelensky, he said, well, he's got low ratings at

10:02the moment, there will have to be elections soon. You know, there was praise, there was warmth

10:08towards the conversation with Putin, and it really seemed in contrast, didn't it, with his words

10:13about Ukraine's leader? Well, I would say that plus several other things he said in the Oval

10:20Office were problematic. But then he also said in the Oval Office, you know, that we can't let

10:25Russia take more of Ukraine. So that statement was, you might say, in lower voice, or rather

10:33was one off or two off, whereas the other statements which seemed to be warm towards Putin,

10:39less warm towards Zelensky were more. So I can understand why people would be concerned.

10:43But when Trump made that one point about, well, we can't let Putin do more,

10:46you know, go further into Ukraine, that reaffirms the basic approach which I described,

10:52which they've all been talking about for the last, I don't know, two months, two plus months.

10:58Do you have a view, John, if we look at the mantra from 2022, the last time that President

11:05Biden, then President, spoke to Vladimir Putin, the line was nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,

11:11that it has to be an equal member at the table. And again, President Trump, when he was asked

11:15about that, said, that's a very interesting question, we will see about that. Which camp

11:21do you sit in? As a Republican, do you believe Joe Biden's measure was right? Or actually,

11:26are you kind of intrigued by what President Trump is doing now to try to bring about peace?

11:31Where do you sit? Well, my view is actually pretty, pretty clear. I think the best policy,

11:39which Biden did not follow and which Trump is not following, would be to arm Ukraine to the teeth,

11:45allow them to shoot wherever they want to shoot. And I am confident that if we did that in a

11:49serious way, Ukraine would drive Russian forces, maybe not completely out of its country,

11:54but largely out of its country and make it extremely expensive for Putin to hold on to Crimea.

11:59But Biden didn't have the spine to do that. And I'm not sure Trump even understands what I'm

12:05suggesting. But Trump's policy, the one that I described, if it's pursued rigorously, could

12:13achieve a stable peace, not completely just because we leave Russians on Ukrainian territory,

12:19and Ukraine would have to live with the awful occupation, which the Russians impose. But it

12:23would ensure that Ukraine, which is controlled by the Ukrainian government, by President Zelensky,

12:29would be secure. I don't think Putin is going to go for that. He wants more of Ukraine.

12:34But if Trump's going to be true to what he's laid out, he would prevent that.

12:39But you've raised some legitimate concerns. Yevhenia, listening to John, are we one

12:46way that your party leader and your president has tried to deal with the new president,

12:52to get some sense of movement? And talk us through this. Am I right to say, in a sense,

12:57offering, with caveats, access to the rare minerals that are needed to build and use

13:04electric vehicles and computers, things like lithium, which in the east of Ukraine, currently

13:09there are two sites that occupying Russian forces sit upon, in exchange for continued

13:15US presence. Tell us about that, whether you think that could be successful.

13:19Well, we did have a visit of the Minister of Finance of the United States a few days

13:25before the Munich Security Conference. And there was a meeting with President Zelensky,

13:30and they discussed this possible mutual contract with regards to the rare earth minerals and rare

13:37minerals as such. As I am informed, the decision had not been approved or taken. And actually,

13:46I think part of the conversation that you showed, this meeting of Ukrainian and US delegations,

13:53could be around this package, which is part of security guarantees, as American administration

14:01says. But just to understand, the rare earth materials, it's something, it's not something

14:07you go out and dig out of your backyard. It does need a lot of investment. It does need

14:15actually a normalized situation, because they do like close to the front line. And basically,

14:23it needs some investments in the factory building. It has a very difficult and complicated

14:32technological process. But on the other hand, if America will invest in that and have some

14:37businesses coming, having it as a mutual project with Ukraine, it means that America will value it

14:46and probably will try to support or play some air defense system around these factories.

14:57But also, we do believe that Europe has to be in these conversations as well. Of course,

15:03America as a country is the biggest contributor of military aid, but European Union as an entity,

15:09as a union, did a lot, especially after 2022 as well. Do you think if we look back at this week,

15:16it will be remembered as the beginning of the end of the conflict towards peace? Do you believe that

15:21the significance of that moment with Vladimir Putin and its aftermath, what Donald Trump is doing,

15:27is going to achieve a peace? I would like to believe that, you know, and try to be optimistic.

15:34But still, in these corridors, there is a picture of Vladimir Putin giving his famous Munich speech

15:40in 2007. They didn't take it out, you know, take it off. And I wonder how many more years it will

15:48take to Western countries understand that Putin does not want peace, does not want to have normal

15:55relations with Europe, with United States, that he just wants to come back to this imperialistic

16:02view of having the spheres of interest, and so on and so forth. And also, what I know,

16:08that Ukrainians is such a nation, and it's truly, you know, it's the war that is being conducted by

16:14the nation. It's not just some soldiers that are being paid, fighting on the front. No decisions

16:20can be taken without agreement from Ukraine, both the political leadership, you know, President

16:27Zelensky, Parliament, but also the, you know, the whole people of Ukraine. It will be a long process,

16:34but I want to be optimistic that the first steps we're seeing right now. We're just getting

16:38information from that meeting to which Vladimir Zelensky has told reporters, we are talking to

16:45Vice President Vance, quote, it is our first meeting, not our last meeting.

16:50John, I also want to run this by you. So we've had, listening to JD Vance, who's in the summit

16:55in Munich, you've got another senior figure, Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, who almost got there,

17:01but his plane broke down, had a crack in the windshield, had to swap planes. We think he's

17:04on the way. And we have a third senior figure, the new Defence Secretary, Pete Hegseth, who avoided

17:09it altogether, called it a cocktail party, and did this with German troops running this morning.

17:14Let's take a look.

17:29John, have you been there in your time? Does the Munich Security

17:32Conference matter, or is it a cocktail party?

17:34It's a little bit of both. There are key issues discussed, and sometimes historic moments.

17:43You've mentioned Putin's dreadful Munich speech in 2007, which foreshadowed the aggressive

17:50policies pursued the last 15 years. And I think this conference is notable for the first meeting

17:58between the second Trump team and our European allies. And as you mentioned, it's been a little

18:05bit unsettling, but it's part of the process by which they will acclimate to each other.

18:10It's great to talk to you both this evening. Thank you, Yevhenia Kravchuk, Ukrainian MP

18:13from President Zelensky's party. And John, thank you to you too, John Herbst from Munich,

18:17former US ambassador to Ukraine.

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