00:00The Gulf states are unified in calling for a de-escalation of the Middle East war.
00:04These are the words from Qatar this Tuesday as Tehran launched new strikes against its neighbours.
00:10But is this a disingenuous statement?
00:12Reports are pointing to a totally different stance among Gulf states,
00:16aware that a total defeat for Iran could well gift them control over the Strait of Hormuz,
00:21as well as a longer-term peace.
00:23Here at France 24, James Vassana with this.
00:28A full month of war, and some want more.
00:33At first, there appears to be a common stance among Gulf countries.
00:37Our understanding is that there is a very unified position in the Gulf
00:41on calling for de-escalation and an end to this war,
00:44but I would say that you should ask every country about their own positions on this.
00:50But a glance behind the scenes paints an entirely different picture.
00:54Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain
00:59are all reportedly urging the United States to continue the war against Iran.
01:04Speaking on condition of anonymity, officials from each country
01:07say that their authorities want to see bigger changes to Iran's leadership
01:11or in its conduct before the conflict comes to an end.
01:16Saudi Arabia and the UAE are said to be particularly eager,
01:20with the latter even pushing for a ground invasion.
01:25This comes despite continued attacks from Iran,
01:28which has launched thousands of drones at its neighbours
01:30since the beginning of the war.
01:33Gulf countries had at first complained about a lack of warning
01:36from the United States ahead of its first attacks,
01:39but are now hoping to see a deal that will best guarantee their security.
01:43The Navy's gone, the Air Force has gone, we know that.
01:47U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed conflicting opinions,
01:50claiming that Iran's leadership is sufficiently weakened,
01:53while also threatening to escalate the war if an agreement isn't reached soon.
02:00Let's get more on this one and bring in Dr. H.A. Hellyer,
02:03Senior Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
02:06Dr. Hellyer, as always, thank you for joining us here, France 34.
02:08We appreciate your time.
02:09I'm wondering how you're reading the stance of the Gulf states right now in this war.
02:16Thank you very much.
02:17Always a pleasure to be on with you.
02:20I think that there's a bit of a divergence among the Gulf at present.
02:24There will be those who are moving towards escalation,
02:28because frankly, they don't trust that the Iranians will not continue to strike them
02:33or escalate in the event that this war comes to an end in the future.
02:38And I think that they have good reason to be concerned in that regard.
02:41So you have some who are moving towards escalation,
02:46particularly the Emiratis and the Saudis and the Bahrainis.
02:51But also you have others in the Gulf, particularly the Qatris and the Omanis,
02:55who are also incredibly angry about how Iran has targeted them,
03:00even though they try to stay out of all of this,
03:03but seem to be moving more towards de-escalation
03:06as opposed to thinking beyond that.
03:09I think that broadly, though, there is consensus on a few things,
03:14one of which is that none of these states want Iranian state collapse,
03:18which distinguishes them from the Israelis,
03:20who frankly couldn't care less if the state in Iran collapsed
03:24and might even see it as a good thing.
03:26I don't think that the Gulf states at all want that.
03:30I think they would be very concerned about stability in Iran.
03:32And then they, of course, have to bear the consequences of such instability,
03:37something that does not seem to trouble Tel Aviv and, frankly, Washington, D.C.
03:43So there is that note of consensus.
03:46But I think there's another note of consensus, which is bad for Tahrad,
03:49and that there will be no going back to business as usual.
03:53The Iranian regime struck all of these countries,
03:56despite the fact that all of them seem to try very hard
03:59to stop this war from taking place, and they will not forget that.
04:02The Gulf states, till now, have been, of course, a bastion of stability,
04:06a place where people have gone for business, for pleasure,
04:09a place where things, as advertised, can grow and thrive.
04:14All that changed, of course, since February 28th,
04:16with the drone attacks coming from Iran
04:19towards what I perceived as U.S. allies there.
04:22I'm wondering, is this going to be, given they will need some kind
04:27of different arrangement with Iran, a push for regime change?
04:31Will that be what the Gulf states will be pushing for,
04:33pushing Donald Trump to do?
04:37No, I don't think so.
04:39And again, not because they have any sympathy for the regime in Tahrad.
04:43On the contrary, I think none of them have sympathy for the regime in Tahrad.
04:46But I think they know and they are aware
04:49that there's no such thing as regime change in Iran
04:52that doesn't result in a huge instability for the country.
04:57It's not going to be Venezuela.
04:59Forget about it.
05:00Not happening like that.
05:02It would be more like Iraq after the second Gulf War.
05:07It would look incredibly chaotic.
05:11I don't think that they're interested in any of that.
05:13I think also that there's a wider consideration across the Gulf
05:18where they recognize that their main security partner,
05:21their main security, I won't say guarantor,
05:24but their main security underwriter, let's say,
05:26the United States, embarked on a war in their region,
05:30in the Gulf region, without centering Gulf security,
05:34so without respect for the security assessments of the Gulf itself
05:38in its own region.
05:39And at least partly, and I would say partly,
05:44I don't think that responsibility is mainly here,
05:47but at least partly because of lobbying and urging and pressuring
05:52from Tel Aviv, from the other power in the wider Middle East region
05:57that the Gulf considers to be incredibly destabilizing.
06:01Of course, they consider the Iranian regime to be destabilizing.
06:03They also consider the Israelis to be destabilizing given the genocidal war
06:09that they brought on Gaza, invasion and occupation of Lebanese
06:13and Syrian territory, striking Doha last year.
06:19Imagine from the Gulf perspective that they're seeing a war unfold,
06:23which has been incredibly destabilizing for them,
06:26especially vis-a-vis energy supplies and the Strait of Hormuz
06:30being effectively closed and so forth,
06:33be a war that began without centering their security considerations at all,
06:38at least partly because of another act in the region
06:40that they deem to be destabilizing.
06:42None of this looks good for them.
06:44We've heard Benjamin Netanyahu speaking to the Israeli people tonight in Hebrew.
06:50We talk as much of his speech as we could capture live.
06:54The theme seemed to be listing the achievements as he sees them
06:58and trying to reassure, as he sees it, the future of Israel as he wants it to be.
07:04At the same time, condemnation from the likes of Mark Carney of Canada
07:08saying the occupation of South Lebanon is illegal.
07:10Ten European countries as well, including Britain, France and Italy,
07:14falling in line with that opinion that what is happening
07:17is not something that should happen under international law.
07:22Is this going to be, do you think, the pressure that pushes Netanyahu
07:25into a different stance or does he just not care?
07:31So first, if you'll allow me, it's not an opinion.
07:35It is illegal.
07:37Okay.
07:39There's no opinion about this.
07:40This is fact.
07:42And I think it's important to call things by their name.
07:44This is an illegal invasion of what Israel is doing in the south of Lebanon,
07:49does not have standing in international law.
07:50So Hezbollah are odious.
07:53Hezbollah are a terrible movement that have taken Lebanon into a conflict
07:58that the vast majority of Lebanese did not want to get into.
08:01It does not excuse in the slightest the way in which the Israelis have threatened
08:07to turn different parts of Lebanon into Gaza.
08:11They've said it.
08:13Into Rafah.
08:15This is absolutely unacceptable.
08:18I don't think that Netanyahu cares.
08:21I think Netanyahu will push the narrative that opposition to Israel's moves in Lebanon
08:28is basically anti-Semitic, that the world is against the Jewish state,
08:35and that they need to move in order to secure the future of Israel in a, quote-unquote,
08:39new Middle East.
08:41But this new Middle East is one in which Israeli paramountcy, freedom of action,
08:48freedom of action to strike beyond borders without reference to international law, reigns supreme.
08:55And I don't think this is a recipe for a sustainable solution in the wider region.
09:02I don't think it's a security architecture that the vast majority of the region is interested in.
09:09I think that the peoples of the region want to see stability, peace for all peoples in the region,
09:17and you can't have that with any type of paramountcy being put into play like this,
09:24and certainly not one that has been taken to the International Court of Justice on genocide charges
09:30and the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges.
09:34Dr. Haldia, thank you very much indeed for your analysis of the situation.
09:38Dr. H. Haldia joining us from the Royal United Citizens Institute.
09:41Thank you, sir, very much indeed.
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