00:02This is Apropos.
00:03As Cuba prepares to receive a sanctioned Russian tanker carrying roughly 700,000 barrels of oil,
00:10the White House is insisting the move doesn't mean U.S. policy towards Havana has changed.
00:15It comes a day after Donald Trump softened his stance on the months-long blockade of the island,
00:20telling reporters he had no problem with relief being delivered to Cuba.
00:24Experts say the shipment could produce enough to feed the country's daily demands for nine or ten days, as James
00:31Vizina reports.
00:34It's the first oil shipments to reach Cuba since January.
00:38730,000 barrels of crude delivered by Russia as Moscow vows to send more aid to the island.
00:47Considering the desperate situation that Cubans currently find themselves in, we'll continue our work.
00:52We cannot remain indifferent. This issue was raised in advance during our contacts with our American counterparts.
01:02Speaking on Sunday, Donald Trump appeared unconcerned about the delivery,
01:06despite U.S. ships stopping oil tankers from reaching Cuba.
01:11If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem with it.
01:16Cuba's finished. They have a bad regime.
01:18They have very bad and corrupt leadership.
01:21And whether or not they get a boat of oil, it's not going to matter.
01:24I'd prefer letting it in, whether it's Russia or anybody else, because the people need heat.
01:32It will take two to three weeks to process the oil, and another to provide the refined product,
01:37as the country hopes to reduce its regular power outages.
01:42Fuel prices on the island have soared, and some airlines have suspended flights to Havana,
01:48threatening the all-important tourism sector.
01:52The United Nations has warned that the fuel shortage could push the country into a humanitarian crisis.
01:59And in the past days, other countries such as Mexico and China have supplied medical goods,
02:04as well as food, to help Cuba stay afloat.
02:09Venezuela had been Cuba's main regional ally and oil supplier,
02:13but following the U.S.'s arrest of Nicolas Maduro, it's found itself increasingly isolated,
02:18with Washington upping the pressure, calling for a change of leadership in a communist-led nation.
02:25For more on the situation in Cuba, we're joined by Helen Niafa,
02:29Professor of Latin American Political Economy at the University of Glasgow.
02:33Helen, thanks so much for being with us on the programme this evening.
02:37Why the change in stance from Donald Trump, and why is this happening now?
02:41The White House, of course, saying this ship is being allowed to enter for humanitarian reasons.
02:48I mean, I think that there are many international and geopolitical factors behind this.
02:55So I think that the Trump administration has faced a lot of criticism internationally
03:03for its policy, which basically weaponises starvation by denying the Cuban people oil.
03:10I mean, just listening to Marco Rubio speak today, the hypocrisy was so stark
03:17when he's complaining about Iran and the Yemen blocking the free movement of oil,
03:24and, you know, they're violating the free movement on the seas,
03:28while at the same time, since the 29th of January,
03:32the United States has threatened that any country sending oil to Cuba,
03:38whether it was commercial or a donation, a humanitarian donation,
03:42would face, you know, heavy tariffs or would be otherwise threatened.
03:47And that follows, by the way,
03:49the violent kidnapping of Venezuelan oil tankers in December,
03:56where they were, the oil tankers were seized,
03:59their crews were kidnapped and the oil was just stolen.
04:02So I think that he's faced a lot of criticism.
04:06This oil tanker was accompanied by a frigate,
04:10a Russian frigate for part of the journey.
04:13So perhaps the appetite for extending the conflict
04:17that is already underway was not there.
04:19And I think, you know,
04:21there's recently been a global convoy of solidarity activists
04:27to Cuba who've brought a lot of international attention
04:30to the severe impact on ordinary citizens of this oil blockade.
04:39So, for example, people are reporting
04:41and they've gone into the hospitals where they've been told by medics
04:46that children in the ICU units, you know, in incubators,
04:51the panic that they face when the electricity system goes off
04:55and there's a lag before the generators kick in
04:59and the medical staff have to rush to the incubators
05:02and hand pump, you know,
05:04the oxygen to keep these poor little babies alive.
05:06And I think that, you know,
05:07that news is coming out
05:09and people are pretty horrified
05:11by what the Trump administration is proposing to do to Cuba.
05:15And despite the months-long blockade,
05:19Donald Trump now saying, you know,
05:20he's not bothered that this shipment is going to reach Cuba,
05:23but surely it is going to reduce the pressure on authorities there
05:27as Trump pursues what he says is regime change on the island.
05:32So, I mean, I didn't catch the whole of the report
05:36before we are speaking now,
05:38but I believe that it was spelt out
05:40that this is going to take some weeks
05:42for this petrol to be able to be distributed.
05:46It needs to be refined and then distributed.
05:48The other thing is that the White House spokesperson
05:51came out with a statement
05:54after Trump made the comment
05:56about allowing this oil tanker to arrive in Cuba
06:00and confirmed that there hasn't been a change in US policy.
06:05The sanctions that were announced on the 29th of January,
06:08which, you know, were presented
06:11with the absolutely absurd pretext
06:14that Cuba is a threat to the national security
06:17and international and foreign relations of the United States,
06:20that that hasn't changed
06:22and that this was allowed on a case-by-case basis.
06:27So a journalist followed up with a question to say,
06:30you know, would other tankers be allowed on humanitarian basis?
06:33And the answer was, well, it would be case-by-case.
06:35So, I mean, let's just be clear
06:38that the oil shipment was by one sovereign nation
06:42to another sovereign nation
06:44and it was completely legal.
06:47Trump is in utter violation of international law
06:50to attempt to, you know, blockade Cuba's access to oil.
06:55So the question, I guess, is partly, you know,
06:59will other countries, for example, Mexico,
07:02will they be able to or will they be prepared
07:05to defy Trump's prohibition,
07:11which is a violation of international law,
07:14and continue to send oil to Cuba?
07:17And the fact that this was a Russian ship,
07:19do you think that would have been a major factor
07:20in Trump's thinking?
07:22Because not intercepting it means
07:23he's averting a potential conflict
07:26with a Russian vessel in waters not far from the US.
07:31I'm sure that this was part of the, you know,
07:37the calculation.
07:38The other thing is that Trump is in a situation
07:42where he's having to depend on Russia
07:45to cooperate with easing the, you know,
07:49the supply constraint in terms of global oil.
07:53As we know, the Iranian, the war with Iran
07:57has blocked, you know, 20% of global oil supplies.
08:01And Trump is now turning to Russia
08:05or turning to other countries
08:06and saying they can now purchase Russian oil.
08:08But that, of course, assumes
08:10that the Russians will cooperate.
08:12So I guess that there are multiple calculations
08:18or, you know, pieces of this puzzle
08:19that they're putting together.
08:21I don't claim to speak for the Trump administration,
08:24but I don't think that there was any appetite
08:27for following up the current war with Iran
08:32with another conflict with Russia.
08:34There was a ship, I think, a couple of weeks ago
08:37by Russia that was on the way to deliver oil in Cuba.
08:41And it was, you know, steered away
08:44by the U.S. Coast Guard.
08:49So this ship, as we've said,
08:52was being accompanied by a military force from Russia.
08:55So perhaps that was a contributing factor.
08:58And what do you think Trump's ultimate objectives are here?
09:01I know you say you don't want to speak
09:02on behalf of Washington,
09:03but as an expert on the region and on the country,
09:07do you think he's any closer
09:08to achieving the regime change he seems to be after here?
09:13So I think what Trump is doing
09:16is kind of unmasking U.S. policy towards Cuba,
09:22which has actually been since 1960.
09:25And this was recorded in a memorandum
09:28by Lester Mallory on the 6th of April, 1960.
09:31It's easily available if people want to look it up.
09:33It was basically a one-page memo which said,
09:36we recognise that the new revolutionary Cuban government
09:40has the support of the majority of the population.
09:43So regime change or removing the government
09:46is not going to be popular
09:48through civil uprising or unrest.
09:50So therefore, we have to use economic warfare
09:54against Cuba to create,
09:56and this is the words that were used,
09:59hunger, desperation and overthrow of government.
10:02And more or less for every U.S. administration
10:06since then has followed this dual track policy.
10:10So on the one hand, use economic warfare,
10:13the U.S. sanctions, the blockade and other mechanisms
10:16to really stunt and obstruct Cuban development
10:23and ensure that the country cannot prosper.
10:26And at the same time,
10:28to work very hard to encourage and foster civil unrest.
10:33So the United States Congress,
10:36this is the overt funds that it approves
10:39for what it calls democracy promotion,
10:42and the Cubans called regime change programmes,
10:44they amount to something like 20 million every year.
10:47So this is the dual track policy.
10:50And I think that what Trump has done
10:52is remove the mask
10:53can no longer dress it up
10:55as a question of, you know,
10:56human rights for Cubans.
10:58It's very hard to sustain
10:59the human rights argument
11:00when you're, you know,
11:03stopping 11,000 children from getting surgery,
11:07when people, mothers are giving birth,
11:09you know, with the light of the medic's phones,
11:14the torches on their phones and so on,
11:17when water cannot be pumped
11:19because the pumping of water relies on electricity.
11:23So I think that that mask is removed.
11:25But I do think that there is a difference
11:28between the objective of Trump
11:31and the objective of Marco Rubio,
11:34the Secretary of State,
11:35who is, you know, second generation Cuban,
11:38although he's never visited Cuba.
11:40And he has built his career
11:43with the support, funding and so on
11:47of the right wing Cuban American sector
11:51in Miami, very powerful sector.
11:54And he owes his career to them.
11:57And they don't want to see anything short
11:59of complete system collapse
12:02and regime change.
12:03They want to see the end of socialism.
12:05It's a matter of revenge.
12:08It's ideological for them.
12:10Whereas Trump, as we know,
12:13you know, we found out
12:14when he was first the candidate
12:15for the U.S. presidency,
12:17he, you know, has expressed an interest
12:20in doing business in Cuba.
12:21He registered his own businesses
12:23for golf courses back in the 1990s
12:26when it was not legal to do so.
12:29And, you know,
12:30after the rapprochement with Obama,
12:32he said, I'm OK with a deal.
12:33So, you know, now he's sort of saying,
12:37well, the Cuban state
12:39is going to fail on its own.
12:40But again, this is another element
12:42of the sheer hypocrisy
12:44from this administration
12:45where they have suffocated Cuba.
12:49They have ensured that the Cubans
12:51cannot make transactions
12:53in the international financial system.
12:55They cannot import machinery
12:58or equipment if 10%
13:00of the components are made
13:02by a U.S. company
13:03or a U.S. subsidiary.
13:04They have absolutely made
13:07basic functioning for any economy
13:10almost impossible with Cuba
13:11and then complain
13:13that the Cuban system has failed.
13:16Well, actually, if you really want to...
13:18I'm very sorry,
13:18but unfortunately,
13:19I'll have to cut across you there
13:20because we are just out of time.
13:22But thanks so much
13:22for being with us on the programme.
13:24That's Helen Yaffa,
13:25Professor of Latin American
13:26Political Economy
13:27at the University of Glasgow.
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