00:11U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseff has warned that the war on Iran will continue with more
00:16intensity if Tehran fails to make a deal with Washington. During a Pentagon briefing, Hegseff
00:22said he had visited troops in the Middle East on Saturday to witness the military operation.
00:27Citing intelligence, the Secretary said U.S. strikes were damaging the morale of the Iranian military
00:34and were triggering widespread desertions, key personnel shortages and causing frustration
00:40amongst senior leaders. Take a listen. On the battlefield, because of the latitude the
00:46president has given us, American firepower is only increasing. Iran's decreasing. We have more
00:55and more options, and they have less. Just one month in, only one month, we set the terms.
01:03The upcoming days will be decisive. Iran knows that, and there's almost nothing they can militarily do
01:09about it. Last 24 hours saw the lowest number of enemy missiles and drones fired by Iran.
01:16Well, reportedly frustrated that his war in Iran is dragging on, U.S. President Donald Trump has been
01:22conveying the message that it will be over soon. But with the American ceasefire proposal so far
01:28leading nowhere, Washington's options now range from bad to worse. Peter O'Brien has the story.
01:36When assessing Donald Trump's options for the war he started, it's best to begin with the options he
01:41doesn't have. As it stands, he can't claim to have stopped Iran's nuclear program, he can't convince the
01:46Iranian people to topple their government, and he doesn't appear able to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
01:51without the help of European allies. But the American president is still insisting the war
01:56will be over soon. So what options does he have? In his own words,
02:01If for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait
02:07is not immediately open for business, we will conclude our lovely stay in Iran by blowing up
02:12and completely obliterating all of their electric generating plants, oil wells and Karg Island,
02:18and possibly all desalinisation plants. This plan to attack civilian infrastructure adds to Trump's
02:24earlier comments threatening to send U.S. troops to capture Karg Island, Iran's oil lifeline,
02:30and reporting that he's thinking about a mission to put troops inside the country for days or longer
02:35in order to extract a critical stockpile of more than 450 kilograms of uranium.
02:41We want the nuclear dust, we're going to want that, and I think we're going to get that.
02:48These boots-on-the-ground missions would carry significant risks to personnel in a war that's
02:53already deeply unpopular with American people. While a final major air assault before walking away
02:59would only be a Pyrrhic victory with the Gulf massively destabilised. Whatever course of
03:05action the commander-in-chief chooses, he's already selling it as a major victory, claiming,
03:09for instance, to have already brought about regime change by killing top Iranian officials,
03:14while all signs point to Iran's commitment to continue the fight.
03:21Well, for more on this story, we can bring in Ali Vais, who's the Iran Project Director and Senior
03:27Advisor at the International Crisis Group. Thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24.
03:33I'd like to start by a report coming out of the Wall Street Journal, which says that Donald Trump has
03:39told aides that he's willing to end the war in Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed,
03:45because securing this waterway would extend the operation. Epic fury passed its timeline.
03:51With the president looking to destroy Iran's missiles and navy and then pressure
03:55Iran diplomatically into reopening the Strait, do you think that this is plausible?
04:03Well, it would be very hard for President Trump to declare victory if the Strait remains closed,
04:09or Iran remains in effective control of the Strait, because this obviously started as a war of
04:16choice, but has now become a war of necessity because of the situation in the Strait. And it is
04:23also clear that if the president decides to do a unilateral ceasefire, just like he did last year
04:29after the 12-day war, the Iranians might not agree. They might continue attacking Israel. They might
04:35continue putting pressure on this Strait. So this is no longer just a decision that President Trump
04:40can make on his own. Well, Trump has threatened attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure and even
04:47desalination plants. That was in a post to Truth Social on Monday. One journalist during a White
04:53House briefing pointed out that this would probably constitute a war crime, these being civilian
04:58infrastructure sites. Do you think the president is bluffing on this?
05:05Look, everything is possible with President Trump, so I don't rule out anything. But of course,
05:10this is exactly the kind of attack that Vladimir Putin would conduct in Ukraine that the entire
05:17West would condemn. And this would be mass punishment of the Iranian people. It would not be help
05:23underway. It would be hurt on a mass scale. Plus, the Iranians still retain the capacity to retaliate.
05:31We see that they are still firing missiles towards Israel. They're still firing drones towards the
05:37Gulf states. And they have threatened to torch the entire infrastructure in the region. That would
05:42shoot up the price of oil above $250 a barrel. And that would also be a political and economic disaster
05:49for the United States and for President Trump as well. So there is no real good option here
05:55for President Trump to deliver on that threat. Well, what about negotiations then? I mean,
06:00in that same Truth Social post, Trump boasted that great progress was being made in negotiations with
06:07Iran. What's your take? Do you think that those talks might be progressing if they're happening at all?
06:15Look, I think he's exaggerating on both sides, both on the military threats and also on the diplomatic
06:21progress. The reality is that as long as the United States is pursuing a set of maximalist demands that
06:27would amount to Iranian capitulation, the Iranians are just simply not interested. They have paid a huge
06:33price now for this war, and they want to make sure that this would never happen again. So they want
06:38a degree
06:39of guarantee that will be very hard to provide. And they also need reconstruction funds, which they
06:46don't believe would come through sanctions relief that the U.S. has repeatedly offered but never
06:51delivered. So this is why remaining in control of the strait is one of the key conditions that the
06:58Iranians are going to put on the table. And again, it will be a very difficult issue or concession for
07:05President Trump to swallow. And in terms of the Iranian regime or what's left of it, how have these
07:13assassinations of high-profile officials affected Tehran's ability to negotiate? I mean, can we imagine
07:20that there's been any problems in communication or confusion over what Tehran might be willing to
07:26accept in talks? Look, the regime appears to have preserved its coherence, despite the lack of
07:36senior leadership and setbacks that it has suffered. It had contingency plans for exactly a scenario
07:45of serious political and military decapitation. And it has remained in control of the internal sphere,
07:53it has maintained its command and control on the battlefield. And so when it gets to the diplomatic
07:58field as well, I don't think that there is any sign of paralysis. Again, the question for the Iranian
08:04side remains whether they have been able to inflict enough cost on the U.S. and Israel so that they
08:12would
08:12never do this again. And from every evidence that I see, the Iranians are not yet at that point. So
08:19I'm not
08:19sure if they're interested in a diplomatic outcome. It's not a question of building consensus internally.
08:25It's a question of timing.
08:27And who is in charge in Iran right now? Do we know? Is it any one person?
08:33No, it is not a one-man show. Iran has always been a multi-power center system
08:41with overlapping authorities. The power seems to gravitate now more and more in the hands of
08:47the Speaker of Parliament, Mohamed Bagher Gharlebaf, himself a former commander of the Revolutionary
08:53Guards. But he can't make decisions on his own. He has to make sure that other senior Revolutionary
09:01Guard commanders who are now in charge are also on the same page. And we don't know what's the status
09:07of
09:07the new Supreme Leader, whether he's incapacitated or even alive. But at the end of the day, it would
09:13have to be a collective decision. No one in that system dares to show their responsibility on their
09:20own and take a massive political risk of dealing with a country, the United States, that has repeatedly
09:26reneged on its commitments to them and has now attacked them twice in the past eight months.
09:31And you mentioned earlier Iran is still continuing those retaliatory attacks on Israel and also
09:38attacks on the Gulf. Are you surprised by Iran's capacity to continue to carry out these strikes?
09:44I mean, this must require some level of coordination as well.
09:49It is quite interesting. You know, you can't imagine a lot of other countries in the world
09:54having a third world military being able to stand up and punch back to the strongest military in the
10:04world, the United States, and also the strongest military in the region, Israel, for such a long
10:09period of time. There is definitely superiority in the air, in intelligence realm. And nevertheless,
10:16the Iranians have been able to stand their ground. But it is because they have been planning for
10:23asymmetric warfare against the United States for nearly four decades. So unlike President Trump,
10:29who went into this without having a clear strategy, without having a clear set of objectives or even
10:36definition of success, the Iranians had all sorts of plans in place and they are now implementing them.
10:44And at the end of the day, they are fighting on their own terrain. And whatever the president would
10:49do from this point on, whether it's putting boots on the ground or escalating by targeting infrastructure,
10:55it is only going to increase the risks and costs, not just for Iran, but for the entire region and
11:01the
11:01world. You said that Donald Trump, the U.S., Washington, they're in a particularly difficult
11:06position right now with the leverage that Iran has, particularly over the Strait of Hormuz.
11:12And are the U.S. demands to ending this war going to be different from what Israel would want?
11:21Look, Israel seems to only be interested in regime collapse or even state failure. It certainly doesn't
11:28want a deal in which this regime would be able to benefit either financially or even getting a security
11:38assurance in any way, because it believes that the problem is not the behavior of the regime,
11:43but it's the nature of the regime. And so I don't see a scenario in which the U.S. and
11:49Israel would
11:50be on the same page in terms of what kind of deal could end this war. But as was the
11:57case in the 12-day
11:57war in 2025, President Trump can impose his will on Israel whenever he decides to do so, and Israel would
12:04have no choice other than falling in line. Well, that might create a condition that is quite unstable
12:13and maybe another war a few months down the road. But at least at this point, if the U.S.
12:19decides to
12:20go for a deal, I think Israel would have to submit to the U.S. will.
12:25And do you believe that we could see an escalation from the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen,
12:30particularly when it comes to threatening shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb straits?
12:37So if you look at the escalation scale on the Iranian side, it's very clear that they had kept
12:44the Houthis in their back pocket for later stages of this conflict as we get closer to the possibility
12:51of the U.S. sending ground troops. And if the U.S. ends up actually invading Iranian islands or
13:00the shoreline or even anywhere else in the country, that is, I think, when the Houthis would escalate by
13:08targeting Bab al-Mandeb. Because the Saudi and the Marathi energy exports now, about two-thirds of them,
13:16are going through Bab al-Mandeb. And if that strait is shot as well, that you have two critical
13:22choke points cut off at the same time, it would really shock the energy markets and could result
13:28in a global economic meltdown. That's the kind of pressure that the Iranians would be looking for
13:34to basically try to teach President Trump a lesson. And of course, if there are boots on the ground,
13:39it would provide Iranians with another opportunity to inflict costs. And that's by trying to send
13:45American body bags back home. All right. Ali Vaiz, Iran Project Director and Senior Advisor
13:51at the International Crisis Group. Thank you very much for your time. Thanks for having me.
13:56Thank you very much.
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