00:00Yemen's Houthi rebels have entered the Middle East war for the first time since February the 28th.
00:04It happened this weekend. They, of course, are the Iran-backed militia that has seized the Yemeni capital, Sana'a.
00:10The Houthis firing missiles at Israel this weekend.
00:13They have already, of course, mounted similar attacks in support of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
00:18But what does their entrance into the war at this point mean?
00:21How could it affect transit of oil from the region?
00:24The Houthis could make it very dangerous for ships entering the Red Sea Zone.
00:28Monty Francis with this.
00:31Sirens blared in Tel Aviv, warning of incoming missiles from Iran.
00:36Now missiles are also being launched from Yemen by the Houthis, a militant group backed by Tehran,
00:41which announced over the weekend it would continue its attacks until the aggression on all fronts ended.
00:47The Houthi armed forces, with God's help and reliance upon him, have carried out their first military operation.
00:53This operation involves a salvo of ballistic missiles targeting sensitive military objectives of the Israeli enemy in the south of
01:01occupied Palestine.
01:03So far, Israel's air defences have prevented the Houthis from doing major damage.
01:08But the greater threat, say analysts, could come on the global stage.
01:12The Houthis pose a very serious military threat.
01:15They have very sophisticated ballistic missiles.
01:18They have very sophisticated drones.
01:21They are able to disrupt the shipping routes in the Red Sea, in Bab al-Mandeb.
01:27The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, or the Gate of Tears, was named for how perilous it can be to navigate
01:33and is vulnerable to Houthi drones and missiles and attacks from small boats.
01:38Just south of Yemen, the critical shipping lane connects the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
01:43With shipping already mostly blocked by Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, experts say a blockade in the Bab al
01:49-Mandeb Strait would effectively shut off traffic through the Suez Canal,
01:53which could drive up shipping costs, cause oil prices to surge even more, and ultimately threaten the global economy.
02:00With the Houthis controlling and potentially preventing oil from moving in the Red Sea, we are at a point where
02:15we have not been before.
02:18It would not be the first time the Houthis have disrupted global shipping.
02:22In 2024, during the war in Gaza, the group attacked dozens of vessels in the Red Sea, forcing ships to
02:28take longer routes,
02:30effectively soaking up almost 10% of the world's shipping capacity.
02:35Let's bring in Elizabeth Kendall, Middle East expert at Cambridge University, for more on this situation.
02:40Elizabeth, thank you very much for being with us here in France before.
02:43We always appreciate your time.
02:46How significant do you think is this move by the Houthis rebels at this stage?
02:52I think it's very significant at this particular stage, because the Houthis have exercised strategic patience until this point in
03:04time.
03:05And the reason they've carried out these attacks on Israel now is to send a message that Iran is not
03:14the one dictating the terms,
03:16it seems that they're not in a mood for a deal on the timetable that America has, and that escalation
03:26is still possible.
03:27Remember, this comes as U.S. troops arrive in the region, and as pressure builds up on Iran.
03:39So this is a signal to say, we could still escalate, and we could really choke off the global economy,
03:48because if the Houthis turn their guns towards the Baerba al-Mandab instead of towards Israel,
03:54then there's a whole new layer of the conflict.
03:56There's never been any doubt, has there, about who the Houthis support?
04:01Clearly, their loyalties are well-known, well-publicised, very, very clear.
04:05But of course, this decision now to do what it's doing, is this a sign that the Houthis will act
04:11independently of what Iran says?
04:13Do they run to their own agenda? Is that the message we're getting?
04:17No, I think the message we're getting is that the Houthis are very much aligned with Iran,
04:23and that they've been keeping their powder dry until the moment when Iran perhaps needs them most.
04:31Because if there's a dual attempt to place a chokehold on trade and oil exports by the Houthis on one
04:39side of the Arabian Peninsula
04:41and the Iranians on the other, then that puts massive pressure on America and its international allies.
04:49Do we see then, as a natural extension of this, the escalation that you're talking about,
04:54that Saudi Arabia could be dragged into a direct conflict with the Houthis?
05:00That's always a possibility, but I don't consider that likely.
05:06And that's because Saudi Arabia has already experienced over a thousand Houthis drones and missiles directed at it
05:14during the many years of the internationalised Yemeni civil war.
05:19And the last thing it wants is to have the Houthis turn on it again, particularly when it's focused on
05:27Vision 2030
05:29and when it wants to protect its oil exports via the Red Sea port of Yambu.
05:35And it's probably worried about its own energy infrastructure and desalination plant.
05:41So I imagine that Saudi won't step into the fray.
05:46Nonetheless, as I think you've just intimated, the traffic that perhaps might be seen in the Red Sea as a
05:54possibly good route,
05:56given what is happening in the Persian Gulf, they might see the Red Sea as a good route for getting
06:00essential goods to and from,
06:02an essential passageway.
06:04That could be under threat now, even more.
06:07That's correct.
06:09With Hormuz, practically impassable to all but a few ships.
06:15The Red Sea is now a vital export route.
06:19And in fact, we've seen exports of crude through the Red Sea port of Yambu quadruple from last year to
06:31now.
06:32And I think that that's really important because very large crude carriers are now taking around about six times as
06:42much crude out as they had been from this route.
06:46Now, the thing about these very large carriers is that they can't get through the Suez Canal.
06:51So they have to exit through the Baer Belmander.
06:54That means that if the Houthis choke off that vital exit point, it will have a dramatic impact on the
07:04oil supply and therefore spike the oil price and have knock-on effects for the global economy.
07:09It means that the Houthis hold serious cards here.
07:13They hold cards.
07:14But how well equipped are they?
07:16I'm wondering, this is a group that is funded, financed and provided for by Iran.
07:20Iran at present is, if we believe Donald Trump, on its knees, but it's on its knees and still fighting
07:26back.
07:27How well armed, how well prepared are the Houthis?
07:31There's no doubt that the Houthis have been severely degraded over the past couple of years by airstrikes, by Israel,
07:41by the UK, and not least by the United States, who fought the Houthis for seven weeks last year.
07:49Nonetheless, they are still standing, and they're feeling confident.
07:54They have missiles that have 2,000 kilometers of range.
07:58They have drones.
07:59They have experience.
08:00They have drone boats, and they have anti-ship missiles.
08:03And even though their most sophisticated weaponry has probably not been replenished by Iran over recent months, nonetheless, they're able
08:14to domestically produce.
08:16And even if their own weaponry is not as sophisticated as it used to be, that doesn't matter, because this
08:23is an asymmetric war.
08:25All they need to do is to continue and to harass shipping, and that achieves the result that they're seeking.
08:33So this asymmetry you're talking about, we're talking about strikes on shipping or strikes on shipping lanes, disrupting that.
08:39We're talking about more strikes against Israel, and perhaps strikes on American targets within the region.
08:46I think all of those are possible.
08:49But where I imagine that the Houthis would focus, if pressured to that point, I imagine it would be on
08:58shipping.
08:58Because they know that that works.
09:00They know that it gets attention because it ultimately impacts the wallets of voters in the West.
09:11Elizabeth Kendall, thank you so much for giving us that insight into the situation.
09:15Middle East Specialist at Cambridge University, thank you for your time, and thank you for sharing your thoughts so openly
09:21with us here on France 24.
09:22We always appreciate it.
09:23Thanks again to Elizabeth Kendall for joining us.
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