00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - Let's start with the very top of this odds board.
00:06 Scotty Scheffler plus 550.
00:09 When somebody has such a short price relative
00:12 for a 72 hole golf tournament on the PGA Tour,
00:17 is that too short to dive into
00:19 or can you still find some value on Scheffler?
00:22 - Yeah, I mean, you definitely can still find value
00:26 on Scotty Scheffler.
00:27 So Scotty Scheffler last season,
00:31 basically won or finished second
00:34 in most of the events that he played.
00:37 So he won the Players Championship,
00:39 he won the Phoenix Open, he T2'd at the PGA,
00:44 the US Open, got third at the Charles Schwab Challenge,
00:48 like the Tour, like he was unbelievable.
00:52 And the tools that I use most often to bet golf
00:56 are our friends over at Data Golf.
00:58 We've had a long partnership with them
01:00 in conjunction with the old Daily Roto.
01:03 They actually have Scotty Scheffler listed
01:06 with a true probability in their math
01:09 of plus 472 odds to win the tournament.
01:14 So if you break that down into an applied percentage,
01:16 that is 17 and a half percent of the time
01:19 that this tournament is played.
01:21 Scotty Scheffler wins.
01:22 Our friends over at the FanDuel Sportsbook
01:25 have him listed with an implied probability
01:27 of winning 15% of the time, American odds of plus 550.
01:32 That means, theoretically,
01:34 obviously if you believe in all this math,
01:36 that actually is just a profitable wager.
01:38 Now, I think there are a couple things you can do
01:41 when you want to bet a really heavy favorite
01:44 like that in golf.
01:45 I mean, obviously, a profitable wager is a profitable wager.
01:49 Now for me, Ben, I like the sweat.
01:52 I like to bet under the one.
01:54 That's just me, right?
01:56 So the thing you can do is,
01:58 one, you can bet it like a football game.
02:00 So whatever your golf unit size is,
02:03 you just disregard that
02:05 and you make it your football unit size, right?
02:08 So it's like, this is what I'm betting
02:09 on the Chiefs money line this weekend.
02:11 Instead, actually what I'm gonna do
02:12 is I'm just gonna bet that on Scotty Scheffler.
02:14 Or the thing I really love to do
02:18 is you just throw it in parlays, right?
02:20 So it's like, all right, we got Scotty Scheffler
02:22 to win on the PGA this week,
02:24 and we also have the bills to cover
02:26 two and a half versus the Chiefs
02:27 or whatever it might be.
02:30 And as you might expect with all of that win equity up top,
02:34 a lot of the other guys that look
02:36 like really solid wagers this week
02:38 are much further down the board.
02:40 (upbeat music)
02:43 [BLANK_AUDIO]
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