00:00 I am Pragya and I bring to you excerpts from the latest issue of Outlook.
00:04 One nation, one election.
00:06 One nation, many people.
00:08 The issue brings to you diverse debate and points of view on the idea of one nation and
00:13 one election.
00:14 Tracking election trends by S. Dindubhattacharya from Outlook.
00:18 An analysis of election results prior to 1971 indicates that issues determine their outcome
00:24 irrespective of whether polls were held simultaneously or separately.
00:29 But the 1951-71 political situation was entirely different from the present.
00:35 A study of outcomes of elections from 1951 and 1971, when parliamentary and assembly
00:41 polls used to be held together generally and separately only exceptionally, reveals that
00:47 results were determined more by state-specific and national political issues and alignment
00:52 of parties.
00:54 Whether polls were held simultaneously or separately was not the deciding factor.
00:58 The Congress party, the political force which enjoyed an overwhelming dominance all over
01:03 India during this period, used to record a higher vote share in the Lok Sabha elections
01:09 when compared to simultaneously held assembly elections in most states.
01:13 This happened mostly because independent candidates used to get higher share of votes in assembly
01:18 elections.
01:19 On the other hand, the national opposition parties or regional forces did not necessarily
01:24 benefit from separate elections.
01:27 And state elections were held mid-term due to reorganization and creation of new states
01:31 or because of the government losing the majority.
01:34 There have been instances when, in case of simultaneous elections, the Congress's assembly
01:40 vote share was about 5 percentage points lower than its Lok Sabha share.
01:44 In some cases, their assembly vote shares saw an increase in separately held elections.
01:49 However, it wouldn't possibly be right to draw conclusions about the present political
01:53 scenario based on the 1951-71 electoral trends for two reasons.
01:59 First, the Congress was the main force not only nationally but in every state of the
02:04 country.
02:05 The current ruling party at the centre is still trying to make inroads in many parts
02:09 of the country where its electoral presence remains insignificant.
02:13 Second, the rise of strong regional parties is essentially a post-1960s phenomena.
02:20 National opposition parties like the left, including communist and socialist, and the
02:24 right, including Bharatiya Jana Sangh, Ram Rajya Parishad, Hindu Mahasabha, and the Sovdantrata
02:30 Party were strong in some states but not strong enough to challenge the Congress-led state
02:36 governments.
02:37 It is due to the lack of strong regional forces in many states that in the pre-1971 elections,
02:43 after the Congress, the highest vote share often went to independents.
02:47 More so, in the assembly elections, whether held simultaneously or separately.
02:52 Take for example, the states where the Congress faced some contest in 1951-52.
02:58 In the Lok Sabha, the only states where it won less than half the total seats were Madras
03:02 (35 out of 75) and Rajasthan (9 out of 20).
03:07 Besides, the party won 6 of the 12 seats in Travancore-Cochin states and 11 of the 20
03:13 seats in Orissa.
03:14 In the simultaneously held assembly elections in these states, the Congress fell short of
03:19 majority figures in Madras, won 152 of the 375 seats, in Orissa, won 67 of the 140 seats,
03:27 and Travancore-Cochin won 44 of the 108 seats.
03:32 However, the party managed to form governments with support from independents and other political
03:37 forces.
03:38 In Rajasthan, they crossed the majority mark by a very small margin, winning 82 of the
03:44 160 seats.
03:45 A look at the vote share shows that in Madras, the Congress polled 36.39% votes in Lok Sabha
03:52 election and 34.88% in the assembly election.
03:56 In Travancore-Cochin, the Congress vote share in the Lok Sabha and assembly elections stood
04:01 at 35.08% and 35.44% respectively.
04:07 In Rajasthan, the party's vote share in the Lok Sabha and assembly elections stood at
04:12 41.42% and 39.46% respectively.
04:17 In Orissa, the Congress' Lok Sabha vote share, 42.51%, stood significantly higher than the
04:24 assembly election's vote share, which was 37.87%.
04:29 A similar difference was recorded in the vote share of the main regional cause, Ganatantra
04:34 Parishad, which was 26.23% and 20.50% and the pan-India entity, Socialist Party, stood
04:43 at 15.40% and 11.77%.
04:47 This can be attributed to the higher vote share of the independents, which was 8.6%
04:53 in the Lok Sabha and 22.94% in the assembly election.
04:58 Such trends were reflected even in states where the Congress party faced little challenge.
05:03 In Bihar, the Lok Sabha vote share, 45.77%, was higher than the assembly election, which
05:10 was 41.38%.
05:12 But the main opposition party there, the Socialist Party, had a similar gap, 21.28% in the Lok
05:19 Sabha and 18.1% in the assembly elections.
05:23 Thanks again to the higher share of votes that independents secured.
05:27 For these and more, read the current issue of Outlook.
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