00:00 Sir, thanks for joining us and speaking to Outlook Money.
00:11 So, sir, first question is that we are seeing that data, like data about the different sectors
00:16 automobile and the economy is coming day by day in the public domain and that depicts
00:19 quite dismal picture about the economy.
00:22 And there are a lot of speculations about it.
00:23 Are we heading to recession and whatnot?
00:25 So what's your quick comment on that keeping in consideration the whole picture of the
00:29 economy?
00:30 So, one thing is clear that you have to look at this economy in two different ways.
00:35 One is, if you look at the medium to long term, we're in absolutely great shape because
00:39 we are putting the building blocks for the long term growth of this economy.
00:43 And from a 3 trillion economy for us to now go to 5 trillion, it seems clearly a doable
00:48 job.
00:49 So it does not seem like an impossible ask that the Prime Minister and the FMR put out
00:54 there.
00:55 But the challenge is here and now of today that the current slowdown, which has impacted
01:02 almost all the consumer facing businesses across the board, is creating despondence
01:08 to the point that the mood is down.
01:11 So already in a slow economy, people's purchase decisions actually get deferred or get pushed
01:17 back, which makes it worse.
01:20 And then the government has gone and made some announcements or at least indication
01:24 that we will most likely do things like either cash injection into the economy or we will
01:30 lower taxes on automotives and others.
01:32 Moment you say this, people further push back their decision because they expect things
01:36 will get cheaper over time.
01:37 So I will wait.
01:39 So time is actually not only to think about it, time is actually to make decision and
01:44 act upon it right away.
01:46 So I'm quite clear, the government is very aware actually and they've made this plain,
01:50 they're very aware of the situation.
01:53 Over the last two or three decades, the growth has been phenomenal for any country in the
01:59 world.
02:00 This is amazing growth.
02:01 But we were working on two engines.
02:04 On the one hand, we had investments.
02:06 The second we had consumption and demand parallelly keeping up.
02:11 In the last few years, the investment went down and consumption kept up.
02:18 Now with the NBFCs and banks getting affected, the consumption has also got reduced and that
02:25 is having a big impact.
02:26 And having said that, do you think that it's appropriate to say that we are heading towards
02:30 a recession?
02:32 So that's a very difficult question to answer because there are many, many different things
02:36 which contribute or push an economy into a full recession.
02:40 I don't think we are there yet.
02:42 And I certainly hope we will not get caught into a full recession because that takes a
02:46 much longer cycle.
02:48 Because for any economy, there are parts structural issues and parts cyclical issues
02:53 which actually matter.
02:54 There are things like policy decisions, tax rates, how much money is in supply in the
03:02 system, in the banking system, etc.
03:06 And then the cyclicality of different sectors of the economy.
03:10 And when these two come together and in an entrenched fashion, you actually do head into
03:14 a recession.
03:15 At this moment, we are not quite there.
03:17 And I think quick action from the government, encouraging more private investment, first
03:24 consumption and then followed by investment to come in, can help us to stay away from
03:28 that.
03:29 Because the global situation itself is not helping much.
03:33 Most economies barring the US are actually themselves struggling right now.
03:40 Bond rates are the lowest they have been, yields are low.
03:44 There are countries with negative interest rates right now.
03:46 A number of countries have negative interest rates.
03:47 So actually they have a unique opportunity.
03:49 Because we are still an economy growing.
03:52 When we grow at 6%, it's very poor for us because our need is for higher.
03:56 But otherwise by global standards, we are in an amazing situation.
04:01 So we need to ensure that this machine keeps ticking and moving forward.
04:06 And so my third question is that do you like there are divergent views, some one is terming
04:11 it as a cyclical slowdown, someone is terming it a structural slowdown.
04:15 So what's your opinion on that?
04:17 What kind of slowdown is it?
04:18 So as you heard right now, since we're sitting at the Mindmind Summit, you had all kinds
04:21 of experts, including officials, including ministers, including bureaucrats, including
04:26 think tanks, the Niti Aayog is here, all of them are here.
04:29 Chief Economic Advisor of the government is also here.
04:33 You heard different views from industry, from the stock markets, Ram Deogarwal is here.
04:37 So the way people are looking at this is that no matter where it's come from, the situation
04:45 that we're facing is real.
04:47 It's not just the stock, it is a real situation that needs to be addressed.
04:51 And the quicker it gets addressed, the more the chances of us not going into a recession,
04:57 the more and the better the chances of us to be able to maintain the growth that we
05:01 had anticipated before the year started.
05:05 And so my last question is about that you have been on from industrial fraternity and
05:09 like whatever the government may announce measures in budget about the FDI and surcharge
05:14 on income tax for super-rich people.
05:16 How do you see all these measures?
05:19 So there are two things which are happening right now.
05:21 One is the government, including at the senior most level, the Prime Minister, FM, etc.
05:26 In the last few public outings on 15th August speech by the Prime Minister, the FM's budget
05:33 speech, the opening was that we respect those who create wealth and value because that is
05:39 wealth and value for the whole nation.
05:41 That has a multiplier effect that creates jobs, that creates more opportunities.
05:46 But what people are saying is we need to see this also in action being implemented in different
05:51 ways the system works, policy, policy implementation, execution, revenue department.
05:58 So there is some mismatch in there.
06:00 And I think it's time for this to get resolved because it is a reality in any system, in
06:06 any economy.
06:09 Those who run the economy create value, wealth through industrial activities, service, manufacturing,
06:17 agriculture, no matter what the activity.
06:19 I think all of that role needs, we need to have pride in that role.
06:24 That's nation building.
06:26 That's how you build a nation.
06:27 That's how the nation value and wealth gets built.
06:30 This is the wealth which then gets used to build education, healthcare, highways, roads,
06:34 sports.
06:35 We have one of the most amazing programs right now in infrastructure in the world, the world
06:40 has ever seen actually.
06:41 Our road building program is the largest ever seen in the world.
06:44 Our programs like the DMIDC and the Ludhiana-Kolkata corridor, our number of airports and ports,
06:52 we are in an amazing place right now.
06:55 So this has to be a machine where all of us are aligned and pulling in one direction,
07:00 government, industry and civil society all together.
07:05 Any one of us not being in sync is not going to help us to tap our full potential.
07:09 Sir, at last my final question is like the Mindmind Summit provides a stage to strike
07:14 up a very crucial discussion.
07:16 So what's your idea behind organizing this summit?
07:21 The idea was exactly this, is to create a platform where different parts of India can
07:29 come together.
07:30 So the Mindmind Institute, which is a think tank, independent think tank, looks at India,
07:36 Indians, Indian industry, Indian economy and India's global relations.
07:39 So all aspects which interact on how we as a nation and we as a people are and can be
07:47 in the future are discussed here and we get leaders from all walks of life.
07:51 We have politicians from government and outside of government, we have think tanks, academics,
07:58 industry leaders, civil society artists.
08:00 So literally the microcosm of India, including agriculturists.
08:03 We also have some of agriculture experts and actual agriculturists coming in into sessions
08:07 to look at things like agriculture, water, energy, technology and social structure.
08:16 So all of these are discussed in a very open conversational manner and that allows us to
08:22 capture some of these ideas and then feed them back into the system to government, industry
08:27 and policy makers to use it for India's benefit.
08:30 Thank you sir, thanks for joining.
08:33 Thank you.
08:34 [Music]
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