00:00We have now entered the mid-season low or the doldrums of the hurricane season.
00:06We defined that from mid-July through about mid-August.
00:09Doesn't mean you can't get a storm in the Atlantic Basin during this time,
00:14but typically you have a better chance in June.
00:17In fact, the history shows that.
00:19You see the little dip once we get in toward the middle part of July,
00:23then there is an increase early August.
00:25But most years it goes quiet.
00:28Why is that?
00:29Well, in the early part of the year, you get development when you get the jet stream
00:34digging south into the Gulf, southwest Atlantic, or in the Caribbean,
00:38and that starts the process of tropical development.
00:41But during July, typically the jet stream is actually going north,
00:45right near the U.S.-Canadian border, so you don't have any tropical interaction.
00:49So you can't get development that day.
00:51Also, water temperatures typically in July and early August aren't quite at their peak.
00:57They don't typically peak until September.
01:00And then this is the big story.
01:02Dry Saharan dust, which eliminates the possibility of any tropical waves coming off Africa,
01:09developing in the tropical storms.
01:11So without the tropical Atlantic being a source for development,
01:14and then the loss of the interaction between the jet stream and the Gulf, the Caribbean,
01:21and the southwest Atlantic, the tropics usually go quiet.
