00:00AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DeSilva.
00:02And Alex, we're not going to bury the lead here.
00:05We're going to go over the tropics so far.
00:07But let's get right to the main story here.
00:10We issued our hurricane outlook earlier this year.
00:15We sent an update in August.
00:17And we do have another update that was just issued.
00:21Yeah, this is going to be news people probably want to hear here,
00:24is that we are going to be lowering the number of hurricanes forecasted for this year.
00:30Of course, we've seen zero hurricanes so far this year.
00:33And with El Nino continuing to strengthen,
00:35and now that we're in the second half of the hurricane season,
00:38we are lowering our hurricane projected number from three to four
00:42down to one to three hurricanes this season as a result of El Nino's impacts on the basin.
00:48All right, let's talk about where we are right now, Alex.
00:52Five named storms, and when you look at them, with the last one, Edward,
00:57and take a look at where we should be, you've been using the term,
01:01you know what, we're about a month behind where we should be.
01:04Again, we've seen five named storms, and look,
01:07we should be around the ninth named storm by this time of the year
01:10and around the fourth hurricane or so.
01:12So we are behind schedule, about a month or so behind schedule.
01:17And this is a very impressive stat here.
01:19You can see the latest occurrence of the first Atlantic hurricane.
01:23So in years that we've had at least one hurricane,
01:26the last 100 years, the latest hurricane was September 21st.
01:31And if you go all the way back, what is the latest first hurricane ever on record?
01:34You have to go all the way back to 1905.
01:36That happened on October 8th.
01:38And there's been two years well, well back near the year 1900 that have actually had zero hurricanes.
01:44We don't think that will happen this year,
01:46but it just goes to show how quiet of a season it's been in terms of the numbers.
01:50All right, let's just stop it right here.
01:52All right, here's where we are now.
01:53We have five storms.
01:55Let's look at the one thing that's interesting.
01:58We've had five storms, but three impacts.
02:02Yeah, they've all been close to home, homegrown development, as we like to say.
02:06So just because the season is quiet in terms of the total numbers of storms and hurricanes
02:10doesn't mean it's not going to be impactful.
02:12And that's why we've been constantly saying it's important to follow the forecast.
02:16These three storms, while being all tropical storms, did still bring impacts to the Gulf Coast.
02:22Now, here's where we are on the graph here.
02:24You can see we're past the historical peak.
02:27However, when you look at the numbers, all right, today's September 16th.
02:31Let's just say we're going to have a normal or an end of the season from here on out
02:37that we normally would see.
02:39Here are the numbers.
02:41Yeah, by the numbers, we would have another five named storms and three hurricanes
02:46if this was a typical hurricane season.
02:49Of course, so far, it's been pretty atypical,
02:52especially with that El Nino raging on across the Pacific.
02:55So it doesn't look like we're going to be seeing that many named storms additionally this year.
03:00So I would expect a couple more named storms.
03:02The 11 total is going to be really hard to get to, I think.
03:05And so that's another reason why we lowered the numbers of hurricanes.
03:08One thing we haven't changed the entire season is that last column there,
03:13the direct impacts to the United States.
03:15Of course, we've seen three so far, forecasting three to five total.
03:19So that means that there could be another one or two potentially down the line here
03:24as we go throughout the rest of the season.
03:25It could be homegrown.
03:26So we want to watch things carefully as it could be less time to prepare.
03:30Is there an area that you and the team are kind of highlighting as far as,
03:35all right, there's going to be some more storms.
03:37Where are the areas that this year are most prone to a direct impact?
03:42I think it's going to come out of the Gulf.
03:44I think the Gulf is the best shot to get something here over the next couple of weeks
03:48and into the beginning of October.
03:50And then climatologically, usually the storms either would move towards the northern Gulf Coast
03:55or the northeastern Gulf Coast.
03:57So places northern Gulf Coast all the way down towards the Big Bend of Florida,
04:01places like that are of concern, as well as the outer banks of North Carolina
04:04and down towards South Carolina.
04:06Sometimes you can get something to spin up off the Carolina coastline and move northward.
04:11So those are the areas that I would be watching here over the next couple of weeks
04:15and months as we really get into that second half of the season.
04:18All right, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva,
04:22thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.
04:25Take a look at the Atlantic right now.
04:27You can see, you know, nothing really organized, although we do have,
04:31I want to go to the Atlantic here, take a look at the satellite picture.
04:34We don't have really anything organized right now, but here's been the problem.
04:40Dry air.
04:41Now, you can see the dry air in the water vapor loop.
04:43It's not as widespread as it was a few weeks ago,
04:47but there's still areas of dry air near the African coast, also in the Caribbean.
04:52But if you had to tell me what is the main driver of not having much of any development,
04:57it's been the wind shear.
04:58And look at the dark purple all the way from the Caribbean to the west coast of Africa.
05:03Now, there are a couple of pockets where you see the light purple,
05:06where the wind shear is lower, southeast of Bermuda and into the Gulf.
05:11And those are the two areas we're going to watch.
05:13Although I'm starting to think that this area is running out of time to develop southeast of Bermuda.
05:19We still have a moderate chance.
05:21That probably offers the best opportunity for Fay.
05:24Wouldn't have any impact on the United States and probably not Bermuda.
05:27And we're going to keep an eye on the Gulf here as we head toward the weekend.
05:30But right now, we only have a low probability for that.
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