00:00Tropical Depression 9 is churning. It's got a lot of moisture with it, and here is an updated look at
00:05the timeline for tropical impacts.
00:07So through tomorrow, Tropical Depression 9 will be strengthening into a tropical storm.
00:11It'll gain the name Isaias. There's no other competition out there in the Atlantic that would maybe become a tropical
00:16storm before this one.
00:17It is the only show in town, and it will likely become our first hurricane of 2026 for the Atlantic
00:23Basin Thursday night into early Friday.
00:25And it'll drift north and strengthen. We're looking at landfall as a hurricane as the weekend begins.
00:32Friday evening, Friday night, and into late Friday night, impacts significant there along the central Gulf Coast.
00:38This weekend, as the storm slides north, heavy rain will spread inland into the southern Appalachians, western North Carolina.
00:45You've got four to eight inches of rain ahead of you.
00:48Isolated tornado threat will be east of the track, and then eventually that may be most escalated
00:54in the 6, 10, 12 hours after landfall, stepping down as we get deeper into Saturday and deeper into Sunday.
01:01So here we have the latest stats on Tropical Depression 9.
01:04It's drifting east at 5 miles per hour, so it has dislodged, and it's beginning to move.
01:09It's going to move east and then north.
01:11If it were moving directly north now, it would gradually move into an area of stronger shear.
01:16But the eastward movement will give it time to mature through a stronger shear to the north.
01:20You can see max sustained winds 35 miles per hour.
01:23So let's look at some ingredients for tropical development and tropical activity.
01:27Warm water in the forecast feed we showed you.
01:2986-degree water temps where it currently is located.
01:32There is some strong wind shear to the north, but not to the south.
01:36So as long as it hangs out well south of the Gulf Coast of the U.S., it will have
01:42the opportunity to organize.
01:43And there's plenty of moisture.
01:45We don't have any of that dry, dusty air to prohibit convection.
01:48Lots of moisture out there.
01:48Here's the wind shear, and you can see the general location into Wednesday drifting east at 5 miles per hour.
01:54A lot of wind shear north.
01:55That's the deep purple.
01:57Not a whole lot of wind shear to the south.
01:59And as this plays out, you can see the shear does increase.
02:02But, again, the storm will have other ingredients that may make up for that, and that could allow this to
02:09become a true hurricane.
02:10You can see upper-level energy here.
02:11A big dip in the jet stream sets into Texas, and that will help to steer this northward.
02:17We have very light winds right now.
02:19Most of the steering winds are around 5 or 6 miles per hour right now, 20,000 feet up above
02:24the storm.
02:25As it gets farther north, it will be moving into an environment with stronger winds aloft.
02:29Not terribly strong, but the winds aloft will be drawing at northward at maybe 30 knots or so.
02:33So, and here you can see we're giving you a slightly more detailed view of landfall.
02:39Category 1 storm by 8 p.m. Thursday.
02:42By the way, 24 hours from now, we're looking at Tropical Storm Isaias.
02:46Then Hurricane Isaias, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season.
02:49That would be on Thursday.
02:50So that would be the 8th of November.
02:538th of October, I should say.
02:55And that would actually tie the record latest date for first hurricane to form.
03:01There have been two years where we don't know of any hurricanes out there.
03:04But, you know, we're in rare territory.
03:05This would be the latest first hurricane in the whole satellite era since the 60s.
03:09And there we have landfall.
03:10I'm going to zoom in and show you a slightly better view of the landfall, the approach, and then the
03:16landfall.
03:16Category 2 hurricane may still be hanging on as a 2 before it makes landfall.
03:2011 p.m. Eastern Time, that's 10 Central, Friday night.
03:25So big concerns here, Anna, for this one.
03:27And the impacts are going to be varied, as with any landfalling tropical storm or hurricane.
03:31Yeah, in this scenario, we think that rain and flooding is really going to be the biggest impact,
03:35not to discount everything else.
03:38Because landfall is a Category 2 hurricane, we're going to see all of the impacts.
03:42But let's take it piece by piece, starting with the rain.
03:44So it's a small area here right around landfall and just to the east,
03:49where we'll see that 8 to 12-inch area.
03:51But that's where we could see localized totals up to 25 inches of rain.
03:56So that alone causes significant problems.
03:58But we've also had a lot of rain recently.
04:01That just adds insult to injury.
04:03Another thing to keep in mind here, the system, even once it loses tropical characteristics,
04:08the moisture will still be moving further to the north through the weekend.
04:11So we're talking about up towards the Ohio Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, into the Appalachians,
04:15some significant rain as well that could lead to some flooding and even mudslides in the case of the Appalachians.
04:21Now, let's go back to the Gulf Coast here.
04:23I mentioned all of the rain and some flooding that we've seen recently.
04:28Well, the last seven days, look at the rainfall totals here.
04:31I mean, we've seen anywhere from two to upwards of six inches of rain,
04:34depending on the exact area that we're talking about.
04:36And this does include the areas that we're expecting to get hit hardest
04:39by the heavy rainfall from what will be East Aeas.
04:44So ground already saturated, more heavy rain on top of it,
04:48scenes worse than what you're seeing on the right-hand side of your screen right now.
04:51That's just from recent rainfall and flooding.
04:53That's part of why I'm saying what I'm saying about the level of concern
04:56with the rainfall that's coming in with East Aeas.
05:00Take a look at future radar because the same rainfall that brought
05:04what you're seeing on the right-hand side of your screen there,
05:06it shifts south as we go through tomorrow.
05:09So places like Tampa, that's where I'm concerned about flash flooding
05:13for your Wednesday and even to some extent your Thursday.
05:15But as we go through future radar here,
05:17you're going to start to see the influence and the moisture from East Aeas.
05:22So we go from just tropical moisture that's not an organized storm
05:25that we've had most of this week and even over the weekend
05:28to now having the rainfall and starting to see the impacts
05:32from tropical storm, hurricane, East Aeas, whatever form it's at.
05:37At that point, we do think it is a hurricane at that point, though.
05:40Now, let's break down the timing a little more specifically
05:42than future radar is able to do with this specific circumstance.
05:45The heaviest rain, we're going to start to see that Friday night
05:49ahead of landfall or Friday evening, really ahead of landfall
05:52along the Gulf Coast.
05:53And then, like I was saying, we continue our way north
05:56as we go through the weekend.
05:57And so Mother Nature is not great timing for your weekend plans
06:00with big impacts here.
06:02Now, we do have wind concerns as well.
06:05And we just added the upwards of 80-plus mile-per-hour wind area.
06:11That's around where we have landfall where we could see gusts
06:14even upwards of that 100-mile-per-hour AccuWeather local storm max.
06:18Our forecasting team just raised that to 120
06:20because of that Category 2 hurricane forecast.
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