- 9 hours ago
Calling for restraint in the US-Iran war, the joint statement from the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting reaffirmed the importance of freedom of navigation in international straits. Nailah Huda speaks with Dr Khoo Ying Hooi of Universiti Malaya and Elina Noor of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to unpack the growing geopolitical challenges shaping ASEAN's agenda and what they mean for the bloc as it navigates an increasingly uncertain world.
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00:07This is Awani Global with me, Nailah Huda.
00:09And in this episode, we want to take a close look at the ASEAN meetings in Manila this week,
00:14where foreign ministers of the bloc gathered to discuss a growing list of issues faced by the region and beyond.
00:22Increasingly, their agenda is overshadowed by conflicts that may be geographically distant,
00:27but have just as much impact on Southeast Asia.
00:31Calling for a restraint in the US-Israel-Iran war,
00:34the official statement from ASEAN has also used previously unused language
00:39targeting, quote, freedom of navigation in and overflight above straits.
00:44So, of course, plenty to discuss and joining us to unpack what it all means,
00:49what we can expect in the coming year from ASEAN.
00:52Joining us right now, Dr. Ku Ying Hui, Associate Professor at University Malaya,
00:56and Elina Noor, non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
01:01Thank you so much to Dr. Ku and Elina for joining us on Awani Global.
01:05Perhaps I'd like to start with Elina.
01:07What do you think are some of the key outcomes for this year's ASEAN foreign ministers meeting?
01:12What do you think they tell us or signal about ASEAN's current priorities right now?
01:17Well, as you foreshadowed, Naila, in your opening comments,
01:21the fact that there is this gathering in person in Manila,
01:25despite all that's going in the world, is pretty significant
01:29because there have been other ASEAN meetings that have been convened virtually.
01:33And the fact that you have the U.S. Secretary of State, Wang Yi from China,
01:40being at the meeting, meeting with all 11 foreign ministers or representatives of their government,
01:47in the case of Myanmar, is pretty significant in itself.
01:51I think what it foreshadows is even greater uncertainty in the coming months,
01:56unfortunately, for the Philippines Chair, and we will continue to see more dialogue.
02:03And for I think many ASEAN observers, perhaps that's not enough.
02:07We are also, as we're recording this, in the midst of dealing with a new fresh round of tariffs
02:13that the United States government has unleashed on several ASEAN member states
02:19with potentially more to come.
02:20And so we're in flux, but the fact that this meeting is happening is,
02:26in typical ASEAN fashion, something to be commended.
02:30But I don't know if Ying Hui will agree with me,
02:34this is probably a potential of more uncertainty to come in the next few months.
02:41Dr. Koo, your thoughts on this key outcomes from the ASEAN foreign minister meeting,
02:47what do you think they spell for ASEAN's fate right now?
02:51Yeah, well, I think I will extend from what Elena has mentioned.
02:56As far as from what I see is that I think overall, the meetings that we witnessed this time,
03:03I think there are several major ASEAN priorities.
03:07They are not necessarily new, but it has been how the ASEAN been operating
03:12and their models operandly.
03:15I think they continue to try and protect the Southeast Asia from external shocks
03:19and preserving the regional autonomy amid all the major power competition
03:25and also, I think, strengthening ASEAN's own institutional credibilities as well.
03:32I think first, we also see ASEAN is increasingly treating the external crisis
03:38as regional security issues as well.
03:42I think the conflict in the Gulf, the Middle East crisis has been one of the top priorities
03:46because of all these supply chain shocks and the food price volatility as well.
03:54And I think this also explains how ASEAN is still finding ways, you know,
04:00navigating amid this major power competition.
04:03Where do they place themselves?
04:04Kind of align with what Elena was saying, that, you know, uncertainties is still there.
04:08But we also still need to see that, you know, ASEAN, despite being a regional organization,
04:14sometimes and very often, several ASEAN member states has their own different approach
04:20in certain issues.
04:22That, for me, I think we can still see that in this time's meeting as well.
04:28And I think they are trying to preserve the regional autonomy.
04:34For instance, I think the modalities for the engagement of ASEAN with the high contracting parties
04:41to the TAC that Lazaro was talking about.
04:47But at the same time, I think this institutional credibility is what I see still kind of significance
04:57within ASEAN, that where are they, how do they actually move forward in implementing ASEAN 2045?
05:05Because this is the first year of that implementations that makes it also very challenging.
05:10And many plans are still in the beginning.
05:12And I think those are the outcomes that I see where ASEAN is still finding its way
05:20with the Philippines' chairmanship for this year.
05:24Following that line of thought of ASEAN finding its way and talking about outcomes,
05:28one of the outcomes, at least one of the more tangible ones,
05:32maybe we can talk about the official statement,
05:34one of which mentions freedom of navigation in international straits,
05:39of course, referring to the conflict and the US-Israel-Iran war.
05:45Alina, how important do you think it is for blocs like ASEAN
05:49and increasingly more minilateral or multilateral frameworks that we're seeing around the world right now,
05:57how important is it for blocs and organisations like ASEAN to draw attention
06:01and place more pressure on resolving conflicts, however distant they may be?
06:07It's absolutely crucial.
06:09And I think the fact that there was a statement released on what's going on in West Asia
06:12or the Middle East, depending on where you sit, is significant for ASEAN.
06:18And the reference to the freedom of navigation in the straits has also come about
06:25primarily because there has been some schism, at least at the rhetorical level, within ASEAN.
06:31There have been calls from certain countries to maybe follow the lines of blockading
06:37or imposing a fee on straits in our part of the world.
06:41And this has obviously been pushed back by some other countries as well in the region.
06:45So while this created a bit of controversy, I think the fact that the return to first principles
06:52and the fundamentals of international law continue to hold true within ASEAN,
06:57how this plays out in practice is obviously something we should keep a watch on.
07:01And a lot of it honestly depends on what happens in the Strait of Hormuz
07:05because we've seen both Iran and the United States talking about imposing fees for access through the strait.
07:12And while I don't think countries in ASEAN will be keen to follow that line of thinking,
07:18the fact that this was even considered in the first place by certain parties in ASEAN
07:23is a bit new in terms of how ASEAN collectively should approach such issues.
07:31So what's going on in distant places is obviously felt in this region.
07:35And when you think about it, I think this framing matters, right?
07:39The statement that we've seen about, quote unquote, the Middle East by ASEAN brings to mind this distance.
07:46But really, if you think about it, it's West Asia.
07:50And if we think of it that way, the fact that we are part of the Asian continent
07:54should bring this intellectual distance much closer.
07:58And how we frame the challenge itself is, I think, really important
08:03in how we think about the distance or proximity of what happens in other parts of the world.
08:09Dr. Koo, how about you?
08:10Was there anything in the official statements coming out from ASEAN
08:14that strike as particularly important or interesting, perhaps,
08:17the language surrounding this issue of freedom of navigation in straits?
08:21Maybe one of them, yeah.
08:22Yeah, well, earlier on, you also asked about, you know,
08:27when it comes to resolving the conflicts at the ASEAN level.
08:31And I think, to be more critical, ASEAN is partly very effective
08:38when it comes to resolving the conflicts.
08:41Judging from the statements, as what Elena has earlier on has mentioned,
08:45I think what the ASEAN is trying to do now is looking at how they can actually contain the tensions.
08:54And I must say is that what's happening around the world now felt very closely to ASEAN.
09:01And what's also interesting with the ASEAN is that there are many other major powers
09:07that are actually gathered in ASEAN itself.
09:10So my question is really, joint statement is one thing.
09:14But how do actually ASEAN can actually move this forward
09:18by still anchoring all this within the line of talking about
09:23that it is very important when it comes to defending the principles of international law
09:29and things like that.
09:30And I think one of the major concerns that really strikes ASEAN is always the economies,
09:37the vulnerability of economies because of the global conflicts here.
09:41So I think I would like to see this in a different way that joint statement is not
09:46that new when it comes to ASEAN, but really on how ASEANs would like to bring this forward
09:53that to make a statement that no state should be able to use or control over an international waterway
10:00to intimidate the others and all this kind of disrupt lawful commerce is very important.
10:08The stronger words when it comes to the issues that has been prolonged for a while now.
10:15Following that thought, Elina, looking at how global events, of course, with the US-Iran war,
10:21hard to avoid that.
10:23But looking at distant conflicts and issues appear to be shaping ASEAN's agenda more and more so
10:30as much as regional issues have this impact on the region.
10:34Do you think that this might also signal ASEAN's growing role in global diplomacy?
10:40I think some analysts have this position where whatever sort of statements that ASEAN come out
10:47on the Middle East or West Asia conflict might not seem so relevant and falls on deaf ears.
10:52But where do you think ASEAN stands here?
10:56ASEAN always has this aspiration of playing an impactful role in terms of its outreach with
11:02the rest of the world.
11:04Whether or not that has actually succeeded in trickling down to the ASEAN populations
11:09is a different matter.
11:10But I think, as Ying Hui mentioned, the effects of what happens in Iran or elsewhere has been
11:17felt on the ground in very real terms, particularly with the rising costs of just everyday goods.
11:24I think, though, that where ASEAN maybe misses the mark a little is on this emphasis on the
11:32impact of the US-Iran war in terms of economic shocks to the region.
11:40And I say that because at the heart of ASEAN's spirit is community building and people-centeredness
11:48or people-orientedness.
11:51And I would have liked to see in statements, not just in this ministerial meeting, but in
11:56previous, like the leaders meeting summit that was held a few months ago, I would have
12:01liked to see more of an emphasis on the human impact of these conflicts abroad in terms of
12:08actual human lives lost, not just the economic shocks that trickle down to people's everyday
12:14lives.
12:15And of course, ASEAN populations are not directly impacted in the region, but there are ASEAN
12:20peoples in places in West Asia whose lives and peace and security have been threatened.
12:29So if ASEAN is to be serious about its people-centeredness, then I think this return to what it means
12:36when
12:37conflicts are felt on the ground, whether it's abroad or here, should actually go back to
12:42the fact of the preservation of human life and dignity, not just how economic shocks are
12:47impacting people's daily lives.
12:49If it's okay to sidetrack a little bit, and I guess going against what you just said, Alina,
12:54and to touch a little bit on the economic shocks, you mentioned yourself earlier referring to
13:00the new announcement of tariffs of 10% and 12.5% announced by the Trump administration.
13:05If it's okay to shift gears a little bit here, Alina, do you think that ASEAN might fare a little
13:13bit better in dealing with the new round of tariffs this time, seeing as how they were
13:18a little bit divided and dealt with them individually in the past year?
13:23Do you think that there'll be a little bit of a shift or change in their approach towards
13:27these economic shocks this time around?
13:30We're still in very early days, right?
13:33We just received news this morning about the first round of tariffs.
13:37Singapore has already had its tariff rate increase from 10% to 12.5%.
13:41So in that sense, Singapore is in a worse position despite being a free trade agreement
13:48partner with the United States.
13:50We're still awaiting news on other tariffs that may or may not be imposed and whether carve-outs
13:56for certain sectors will actually be given.
13:59In Malaysia, the semiconductor industry is crucial to the economy.
14:04And so whether there will continue to be this silent carve-out with this fresh round of
14:10Section 301 tariffs is still to be seen.
14:13And these tariffs could change on any given day.
14:17So just because we've seen the release of these tariff rates today doesn't mean we won't
14:21see a change in the next week or even in the next month.
14:24And so there's still this round of unpredictability with this tariff list that's been released.
14:32So it's hard to say whether we're in a better or worse position than we were yesterday.
14:36Yeah.
14:37And if it's okay to go back to the earlier point talking about this aspirational role that
14:42ASEAN is trying to play on the global stage.
14:45Dr. Koo, maybe you have your own take on this.
14:47Do you think that this is simply the reality that external conflicts increasingly have direct
14:53consequences on the region and that ASEAN has to react?
14:56Or do you think this is simply an aspiration for the bloc?
14:59Well, I guess we cannot dismiss that ASEAN certainly has certain form of diplomatic values.
15:06But it has been a very busy regional organization whereby there's so many senior officials from
15:13different countries that actually gather in these regions.
15:17That is somehow, yes, it shows that the ASEAN remain useful.
15:21But I will be very cautious when it comes to how do we see the effectiveness of the ASEAN itself?
15:27Because ASEAN, they provide diplomatic infrastructure.
15:32You know, they always try to portray themselves that they have these neutral settings for the
15:37regular meetings and people can come and have their communications together and the discussions.
15:42But I think what is still missing is that we are not really the one that's setting the agenda.
15:50And many of the issues that are dominating the meetings, such as the US-Iran war, US-China rivalry and
15:58many other things, yet it is important because it produces the immediate consequences for Southeast Asia.
16:05But so what it is really revealing is that how do the ASEAN actually can convert all this exposure into
16:16the agencies?
16:17Because I think ASEAN up to today is still a body that they react to each new crisis.
16:24And then it will develop some positions and the joint statements.
16:28And I think underlying that, the issues is really ASEAN has not been very much of an organization
16:35that is ready to actually championing certain issues before it actually happens.
16:42So I guess for now, I would like, I would see that ASEAN is becoming more globally connected,
16:48but not necessarily more global, influential.
16:52So it is still quite vulnerable in a way.
16:56And I think we should not confuse all these two roles that they are actually playing and
17:01still trying to find its way.
17:05One of the other issues that also got one of the more attention during the meetings this week,
17:11of course, looking at Beijing and the Philippines that faced an incident of sorts in the South China Sea,
17:19leading each other to summon each other's ambassadors.
17:23Alina, how would you assess recent developments in these disputed waters of South China Sea?
17:29There's been a lot of talk that there's progress on the Code of Conduct as well,
17:34that there's still optimism that it would be completed by the end of this year.
17:38Are you optimistic?
17:41Whether or not it's concluded at the end of the year is secondary to how effective it will be
17:47in terms of implementation.
17:49And I think this has been the crux of the issue for a long time now,
17:53since the Code of Conduct began to surface as a possibility to manage tensions in the South China Sea.
18:00Credit to the Philippines Chair.
18:03I think there were initial concerns when Manila took chairmanship this year
18:07that the Philippines might try to center the South China Sea dispute during its chairmanship.
18:12And that hasn't been the case because if it had done that,
18:16I think it would have sidelined a number of its own ASEAN neighbours.
18:22And so we've seen the Philippines deal with what has happened in Second Thomas Shul
18:27in almost split-screen fashion with its leadership of the ASEAN ministerial meeting this past week.
18:35And so I think it's managed to buffer or isolate the incidents it's bilaterally faced with China,
18:44apart from its collective stewardship of the ASEAN meeting.
18:50And so I think this has been appreciated amongst the ASEAN member states,
18:54the fact that the South China Sea dispute hasn't dominated the meeting,
18:58and the fact that there continues to be calls for this early conclusion
19:02or timely conclusion of the Code of Conduct is something to be commended.
19:07Again, I return to my early comment,
19:09whether or not this ends up actually being an effective tool
19:13is something we'll have to wait and watch.
19:16Dr. Kuh, do you think there's been much progress in the South China Sea dispute?
19:20And I guess to add to that,
19:22do you think a lot of credit can be given to the Philippines as Chair of ASEAN this year?
19:28Yeah, well, when Manila was taking over as the chairmanship,
19:33one of the top priorities that I think all the analysts would be thinking
19:37is that South China Sea, you know,
19:39because it is a very important issue for Philippines itself.
19:43But putting that aside, I think now that either the Code of Conduct,
19:49as they say that they want to finalize it by the end of this year,
19:52I will concur with Elena that the implementations will be something
19:56that we will have to wait and see.
20:01So the Code of Conduct can be drafted and things like that.
20:05And it has been a very long, prolonged issue.
20:08But I think in this South China Sea issue,
20:11we are not just talking about the reactions of Beijing and Manila now,
20:16but also the U.S. as well,
20:19because U.S. has actually responded by reaffirming their defense commitment
20:23to the Philippines.
20:24And they also indirectly kind of criticizing China's actions as well.
20:29So I think these issues is no longer just about the ASEAN or Philippines for now
20:36and China,
20:38but also bringing into the pictures of how the U.S.
20:41is going to use these particular issues
20:44and also this managing of the U.S.-China rivalry coming from the ASEAN side.
20:49So I would say it is quite a delicate issue.
20:52And we all know that South China Sea issues is not the only one
20:56that got mingled into the geopolitical tensions in this region.
21:01On that note,
21:02one of the most closely watched engagements on the sidelines of the ASEAN meetings
21:06was another meeting between the U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio,
21:10and Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi.
21:12Dr. Kuo, in your view,
21:13do you think the meeting sent any signals?
21:16Did it, you know,
21:18maybe offer some positivity on the global power competition between the two?
21:24Yeah.
21:24Well, I think over the times we have seen this,
21:29the U.S. and China's senior officials have been meeting quite often,
21:34more than before.
21:35I think what I can see from this meeting is that
21:39both the Washington and Beijing still want to stabilise the relationship,
21:44but neither side is actually stepping back fully from the strategic competitions.
21:49So the meeting also,
21:51I think mainly they also focus on preparing for presidencies,
21:55next meetings with Trump in the U.S. as well.
22:00So I think it is also very interesting if we look at how Marco Rubio actually responded,
22:08and also Wang Yi as well,
22:09because on the Rubio side,
22:11he actually described that there are still major differences.
22:14So, but then the Chinese side actually used a more positive tone by saying that the meeting was pragmatic,
22:20positive and constructive, you know.
22:22So I guess this kind of approach has been very much quite consistent coming from the U.S. and the
22:29China as well.
22:30So I think the meeting basically revealed the contradictions that we see.
22:35Both sides still wants the stability, but each also wants the stability on the terms that they can actually determine
22:43themselves.
22:45So they, the Washington, does not want these kind of dialogues to actually weaken the deterrence.
22:50But at the same time, we also see the China side does not want the engagement to actually legitimate the
22:57continued U.S. pressures as well.
23:00Because after the meetings of Trump and Xi,
23:02we continue to see several episodes of tension,
23:05and it did not actually stop despite of the positive tones that they're trying to send to the world as
23:11well.
23:11So I guess the balls comes to, rolls back to ASEAN really, you know.
23:20Being ASEAN and, you know, ASEAN platform that we still provide such a diplomatic space,
23:27but as I earlier mentioned, providing the venue is not the same of how we can actually shape the outcome
23:33as well.
23:34So I guess this is something that I think ASEAN at this stage should really reflect a little bit.
23:41Are we going to continue to be just a platform, a convenient stages on which the major powers can actually
23:48manage their bilateral relations?
23:50Or how do we actually championing the concerns of the ASEAN itself?
23:57Talking about the concerns of ASEAN, I think we have talked at length about some of the more external issues.
24:03But looking internally, there is, of course, the conflict in Myanmar,
24:07whereby ASEAN foreign ministers have agreed to develop benchmarks for measuring progress in Myanmar
24:13and has also began discussing appointing a longer-term special envoy.
24:19I think this is what analysts have been calling for for quite some time now.
24:22Do you see this as progress?
24:25Well, I would say it is procedural.
24:28But whether it can bring up to the political progress, the meaningful one, I am not so sure at this
24:35point of time.
24:36After all, this is another very long overdue issue that ASEAN has not been able to resolve despite the five
24:43-point consensus.
24:44Yes, the talk about to have a benchmark is good.
24:48To appoint a long-term special envoy is also a good progress.
24:52But I think I want to be more mindful of the issues on Myanmar
24:57because we continue to see there are several ASEAN member states that actually have a softer approach towards Myanmar.
25:05So that itself can actually dilute this whole collective actions by the ASEAN itself
25:12and because some are more open to actually accept the military junta.
25:16So I think we must not dismiss that there is a real risk that we are facing,
25:23that such a renewed engagement with the Myanmar's military authorities could actually become normalized
25:31without any real meaningful change within the Myanmar itself.
25:38So I guess there is a progress when it comes to procedurals,
25:43whether it becomes a progress for the people of Myanmar,
25:46really depending on the implementation itself
25:48and how the ASEAN can actually be or ensure that it is going to be a very inclusive kind of
25:58engagement.
26:00A lot to watch out for in the region, of course,
26:03and an ever-growing list of priorities,
26:05a busy time, of course, as you said, for ASEAN.
26:08But that is all the time that we have to discuss the ASEAN Foreign Minister's meeting this week.
26:13Thank you so much, Dr. Ku Ying Hui, Associate Professor at University Melayah
26:16and earlier Elina Noor from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
26:19joining us on Awani Global this week to discuss the ASEAN meeting
26:24and what we can expect in the weeks and months to come.
26:28Thank you once again to our guests.
26:29That is all on Awani Global this week with me.
26:31Nala Huda, we'll catch you next time.
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