- 3 weeks ago
The first round of US-Iran negotiations has produced an interim framework, but conflicting statements over nuclear inspections, sanctions relief and the Strait of Hormuz underscore the fragile path ahead. Nailah Huda speaks with Dr Rowena Abdul Razak to examine whether the deal marks a genuine breakthrough for regional peace or merely a temporary pause in a deeply entrenched conflict.
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00:06This is Awani Global with me, Nailah Huda.
00:09After the first round of negotiations in Switzerland, the United States and Iran have since given conflicting accounts about the
00:17terms of the agreement,
00:18from nuclear inspections and control over the Strait of Hormuz to Israel's parallel war in Lebanon.
00:25At the same time, this week also marked the first time both chambers of the US Congress passed a resolution
00:31directing a president to remove the US Armed Forces from hostilities under the War Powers Act.
00:38And although it is seen to be largely symbolic and it's still unclear how the votes might affect the ongoing
00:46conflict,
00:46it does, however, reflect the growing concern even among some of Trump's Republicans about the unpopular conflict.
00:55And in this hour, we want to unpack the ongoing negotiation.
00:59How might the Iranian political regime stand on the deal with the US and what we can expect in the
01:07weeks and months to come?
01:08Joining us now to unpack, we have Dr. Rowena Abdul Razak, lecturer in Middle East History at the School of
01:14Oriental and African Studies, SOAS.
01:16Thank you so much, Dr. Rowena, and good morning to you.
01:19Thanks for joining us on Awani Global.
01:21Now, between the first announcement of the interim deal between the US and Iran last week on June 15 and
01:29up to today,
01:30have your thoughts perhaps changed on the prospects of peace based on the agreement?
01:37Thank you so much for having me, Naila. Good to see you again.
01:41In a way, as I've said before, I'm an optimist.
01:47I think that we can still very much hope for a peace deal.
01:52Things like misunderstandings and misinterpretations of what exactly the memorandum of understanding contained is quite normal.
02:03I think we all need to kind of remind ourselves that we are very much at the beginning of what's
02:09going to be a long, long journey.
02:11If we think back to things like the JCPOA back in 2018, you know, the original nuclear deal that was
02:20signed between Iran and the European powers and the EU and the United States,
02:25that we saw it really at the end of a very long process.
02:29Things like that took years.
02:31And I think we are also in the same position where it's going to take years.
02:36It's going to take, if not months, then at least years.
02:40Because the MOU, which was signed last week, was very comprehensive.
02:46And it contained a lot of different aspects of bilateral, you know, the rapprochement between the US and Iran.
02:55So that means that a lot of things need to, a lot of details need to be, to be, to
03:00be sifted through.
03:02So in that sense, yes, optimistic, but we have to be patient.
03:07I mean, you describe this situation as rather normal.
03:09But what about the conflicting statements that we're seeing from both sides on the terms of the deal, particularly on
03:16nuclear inspections?
03:17Is this something to be expected?
03:19Is this normal business as usual for the US and Iran?
03:24In a way, yes.
03:25As we've seen in the last couple of months, you know, we've seen, you know, they had a ceasefire.
03:31They had changes to the ceasefire.
03:33And we need to remember that there are different, different people.
03:37And in any kind of negotiating process, it's a very layered process.
03:40You have the, you know, the top, you've got Trump on one hand,
03:45the Supreme Leader and on the other hand.
03:48And then you've got different other players involved.
03:50You've got the negotiators themselves on both sides.
03:53You've got the, you know, domestic players as well.
03:58And we know that all of them may have different ideas.
04:02They may have to also say different things to their domestic partners.
04:06And then on top of that, we also have the referees themselves, you know, to use a World Cup term.
04:11We have Qatar and Pakistan.
04:14So because it's such a layered, you know, a layered process, it's not unusual to have kind of conflicting ideas
04:24of what, you know,
04:27what both sides have, you know, have decided, you know, an item might look like.
04:33And we must remember that, you know, even though they've agreed on these kind of terms and conditions,
04:40how those terms and conditions are going to be implemented might be quite different.
04:44And that's why we have technical negotiations and so on.
04:48Bearing in mind also, we have Trump in the picture who, you know, as we know, you know, he is
04:53quite capricious.
04:54He has made conflicting statements many times in the past.
04:57So it is quite difficult to kind of follow, you know, the actual negotiations when you have personalities like him.
05:05So it's quite hard to say.
05:06Yeah, in a way, I'm not surprised that we're getting conflicting statements.
05:11But again, we're at the very start of a long negotiation.
05:15These two powers, they've been at war.
05:17They need to learn how to communicate with each other.
05:19They need to learn how to communicate to their own stakeholders.
05:23So it's going to take a while until we sort of see a clear picture.
05:26So I'm not surprised that we're seeing contradictions.
05:30On that note, taking into account the sort of layered process that negotiation and peace process would take,
05:37do you know where the Iranian political establishment might stand on this deal?
05:43How do you think this agreement would serve Iranians' strategic interests?
05:52When we look at Iran, I mean, we have to kind of see it from two perspectives.
05:55There is their regional presence and the international presence and their domestic presence.
06:00For many years, a deal was kind of necessary for Iran's domestic politics.
06:08The sanctions have been very, very hard for Iran and Iranians.
06:12You know, we've seen sort of the backlash of it over years,
06:17the tensions that it has created among the population with its government.
06:20But we've also seen the effects on its economy, you know, high inflation, supply issues and so on.
06:27So I think that Iran really needed to make a deal.
06:31It could not sustain itself, even though it has been more or less self-sufficient for a long time,
06:36you know, decades at this point.
06:39It's getting to a stage where it's no longer sustainable.
06:42And we know that, you know, before the 28th of February, when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran,
06:48Iran and the U.S. were actually in the middle of negotiations.
06:53So we know that Iran needs to do it.
06:55I think there's a lot of rhetoric around, you know, not wanting to deal with the U.S.
07:03or this kind of government and so on, but it can't afford to do that.
07:07So I think it is important to do that.
07:09And I think there is also a sovereignty aspect as well.
07:12So the nuclear issue, for example, has always been a very big issue for the,
07:15especially the hardline faction of the Iranian government.
07:18So they don't, they've always seen it as like, it's their right.
07:21They need to have a nuclear program because it sort of reinforces Iran's rights as a sovereign nation.
07:29But again, it has also shown that it's willing to kind of, you know, use that as a negotiating tool
07:37of need be.
07:37So they're not so, they're not holding on to these, to these, to these, to these things as much as
07:44they used to.
07:45I think that even though they're a hardline government and, you know, domestically,
07:48the war has actually reinforced the hardline government, we are seeing a softening as well.
07:55So having said that, you know, the kind of contradicting statements that we've seen,
08:00you know, I think the foreign ministry said that, you know, there's no nuclear scientists are going to come in
08:05at this stage.
08:06We shouldn't sort of see this as evidence that, oh, Iran is backing down on their nuclear issue.
08:11I think it's just, again, all technicality at this point.
08:15We need to sort of see how these agents can come in and so on.
08:19So, yeah, so, and again, regionally and internationally, Iran, as we know, is a rational layer.
08:26Having sort of peace in the region, you know, is to their benefit.
08:30And I think the war has created a lot of tensions with its Arab Gulf neighbors.
08:35So they've also got to kind of prove to the Arab Gulf neighbors that, you know, that they want peace
08:41and stability,
08:42which is also going to be very difficult if U.S. bases are still going to stay in the U
08:47.S. Gulf, sorry, in the Arab Gulf states.
08:49So we've got a lot of different parts to this.
08:52So I think for Iran, the deal is very necessary.
08:56Despite previous rhetoric, they need the deal, whether they, you know, whether in the past, you know,
09:01they've been very strong headed about it.
09:03I think that's very rhetorical.
09:05Iran still has shown itself to be a rational and strategic plan.
09:09And the U.S. needs this deal as much as the Iranians do.
09:13But you emphasize about the need to have this patience for this, you know, layered process of peace negotiation that,
09:20of course, takes time.
09:21And mediators, Qatar and Pakistan, have said that after the first round of talks in Switzerland,
09:27the U.S. and Iran had agreed to a roadmap towards reaching a final deal within 60 days.
09:34Now, some analysts say this is optimistic.
09:36But as you say, you are quite the optimist yourself.
09:39Do you think this is a realistic timeline?
09:43The 60 days is, you know, with I think that we have the option to extend it.
09:50But I think it gives everyone a little bit of breathing room.
09:53So I don't know, if I'm honest, whether they can make it in 60 days, because that seems like a
10:00big ask.
10:01And as we know, a lot of things can happen, especially when we have other components like Lebanon, Israel included
10:09in that.
10:10And because that's so fragile and Israel has shown that it's happy to do whatever the U.S. doesn't want
10:16it to do.
10:17So that Israel, you know, Israel will do what it wants.
10:20We know this.
10:21And because we have that, it's going to be quite fragile.
10:24So even though I'm an optimist, even I realize that reality, you know, can kind of ruin that optimism a
10:33little bit.
10:33So 60 days is a lot.
10:36It is not a lot in the grand scheme of things.
10:38And we might see an extension of that.
10:41We might see a complete reversal.
10:44And Trump himself has said that they might return to war if necessary.
10:48Or they might, you know, they're reserving the option to bomb Iran if necessary.
10:55And I've always said this, that I think a lot of the bombing were, in fact, negotiating tactics.
11:00But then again, Iran has other things up its sleeve, like the Strait of Hormuz, which he can use in
11:09retaliation to that.
11:10So I know that even though 60 days are limited and, you know, they may not be able to get
11:14there and many things might happen.
11:16But I think history has shown that they will return to the negotiating table in one way or another.
11:24They will, because it's not sustainable.
11:26A full-scale war is not sustainable.
11:28A long-term war, long-term conflict, also not sustainable.
11:33So, yeah, we'll have to see.
11:36Yeah.
11:37Perhaps something to boost your optimism is a move that I think has surprised some.
11:41The U.S. Treasury issuing a 60-day sanctions waiver thus dismantling central pillars of Washington's long-running embargo on
11:50Iran.
11:51How much of an impact do you think this would make on Iran's economy?
11:56Of course, some temporary respite.
11:58But how much of this has come as a perhaps lifeline for Iran's economy right now?
12:05I think it will be very necessary.
12:08Things like lifting, those kind of things.
12:12If it doesn't go through, yes, it will be very helpful for Iran.
12:17And we know that they've been under immense strain since the end of last year.
12:23Inflation has gone up, you know, hugely.
12:27You know, there's the, I think for the first time in its history, it published, it produced a one million
12:33real note.
12:34So we know that inflation is very bad.
12:35So there's going to be some respite.
12:38As well as, you know, a flow into the country.
12:42Again, these things don't happen overnight.
12:45It does take time.
12:46We also have to kind of see how that would work.
12:49A flooding of, you know, of assets and so on is also not necessarily going to reach the people very
12:57quickly.
12:58Iran has a lot of domestic issues that, you know, we, that are not necessarily always going, only going to
13:05be solved because this is, this happened.
13:07We have, you know, just before the war last year, we had an immense drought, for example, in Iran.
13:13So, you know, Iran is mostly quite, it's a desert-like country.
13:17So with drought, there was a major water issue, major infrastructural issues that need to be solved differently.
13:27So, yes, there's going to be some respite and some, you know, maybe some alleviation on the economy.
13:33But Iran is still facing quite, Iran is still facing quite a lot of domestic issues that need to be
13:40solved one way or another.
13:41So, still looking internally, or at least in Iran's domestic politics, in our last interview, I remember we were discussing
13:49quite at length about the sort of enduring power that we've seen from the Iranian political regime.
13:56How do you think this war might have shaped the establishment under Supreme Leader Mustafa Khamenei, especially in this very
14:04early formation phase?
14:07The war has been, in a way, it helped alleviate some of the legitimacy crisis that the government had been
14:17facing.
14:18If you remember back in December, there were quite a lot of protests against the government.
14:23And the government, over the years, you know, has been having, had been facing a lot of, you know, backlash
14:28from its people, the Women in Life Freedom Movement, for example, back in the early 2020s.
14:35So we know that the government had been facing quite a lot of opposition.
14:40And I don't necessarily know if that's going to go away, because there's a lot of voices within Iran that
14:46want a more moderate version of what they have now.
14:50Much about Khamenei himself was an interesting choice.
14:55I think he was the hardline choice.
14:57He was the hardline choice of Supreme Leader when his father was killed early in the war.
15:03So we know that, you know, we have a hardline government, but we are also tempered by Pazesh Kian, who's,
15:09you know, more on the moderate side of the hardliners, let's say.
15:12So there's a bit of balance here.
15:15But the government itself, you know, it's, you know, we're seeing different things coming out of Iran.
15:22And, you know, there was an internet blackout for a long time.
15:25So it was very hard to kind of gauge how Iranians felt about the war.
15:31But there is a sense that Iran was kind of united within the country.
15:36We'll leave the diaspora aside, because that's a little bit more complicated.
15:40But the Iranian, you know, people were very much, you know, united by the war.
15:45There was a lot of show of support for the army, even for the IRGC, because they were the ones
15:52who were defending the country.
15:53So there is a lot of that.
15:55And I think that shouldn't be discounted when we think about Iran.
15:58So when we think about the Iranian government and its ability to use the war to kind of take back
16:06some of the legitimacy it had been sort of losing.
16:11It would be kind of interesting to see what a post-deal hardline government would look like at this point.
16:18And it's very hard to see.
16:20But, you know, the images that we have been seeing out of Iran, we're seeing women without hijab.
16:25We're seeing women, you know, especially, you know, things like the football, you know, that's been, you know, that's happening
16:32right now.
16:33We're seeing a lot of scenes in Iranian cafes of, you know, people just trying to go back to normal
16:41life.
16:42You know, they're enjoying the games, the Iran games.
16:45But, you know, again, the Iran games have been really fascinating because they've gained so much support internationally as well,
16:50the team.
16:51Anyway, that aside.
16:52But, yeah, so we're seeing a lot of domestic, the Iranian domestic scene is changing a little bit.
16:59We're seeing definitely more moderate, but seems to be more moderate.
17:03The government not really cracking down on women without hijab.
17:07You know, there seems to be more freedom for women, especially in the urban centers.
17:11The hardline government has strengthened its position because of the war.
17:17But, again, we're going to have to see what Iran would look, the government would look like with less sanctions,
17:23less of this pressure, stability and peace.
17:27There is a hope that we'll move to a more moderate version of what we have.
17:32But, yeah, all remains to be seen.
17:35If we were to look at the entire stretch of the war from February up till now, how significant do
17:42you think has the Strait of Hormuz been in shaping the negotiations?
17:46Or, I guess, more specifically, looking at Iran's ability to either threaten or disrupt traffic through the Strait,
17:54do you think this is proving to be its strongest bargaining chip, its leverage?
18:01Certainly, I would say so.
18:03I mean, there are two bargaining chips here.
18:04I think one is the Strait of Hormuz and the other one are its regional partners.
18:08So, in Lebanon, Yemen and so on.
18:12But I think the Strait of Hormuz has really shown that Iran has the ability to tie whatever happens to
18:18Iran to the rest of the world.
18:20And they've used it quite effectively.
18:23But they've used it fairly, I feel, because they allowed, you know, even when they were limiting traffic within the
18:29Strait of Hormuz, they allowed allies.
18:32They didn't close it completely.
18:34They were, and they haven't, and they never, you know, they never closed it completely in that sense.
18:39Of course, they were skirmishers.
18:40You know, there were unfortunate casualties of tankers, you know, of personnel on tankers and so on.
18:45But generally, you know, they maintained good relations with, I believe, Malaysian tankers were allowed to pass through during this
18:53time.
18:54So, even though they used it as leverage and, you know, and it did cause a lot of strain on
19:01the global economy in many ways, they were still quite rational.
19:04And when things were better, they opened it back again.
19:08And I think now they're even in separate negotiations with Oman to see how they can regulate the Strait of
19:16Hormuz.
19:17So, you know, there were concerns that Iran would kind of just take full control of the Strait of Hormuz.
19:22But we're seeing now that they do want the region to be involved as well.
19:28So, they're currently, I believe, in Oman to negotiate that.
19:35I mean, just an interesting point.
19:38I read an analysis that suggested the Strait of Hormuz or Iran's ability to disrupt traffic in the Strait could
19:46potentially be an even stronger bargaining chip compared to its nuclear program.
19:53Do you think you would go to the extent of agreeing to this analysis?
19:58It's not untrue, I think.
20:01And also, Iran's missiles.
20:03I mean, as we know that Iran maintained itself and defended itself with its huge stockpile of different assortment of
20:13different missiles.
20:14So, in a way, the nuclear issue at this point is just symbolic.
20:19And I think that it's kind of symbolic in the sense that anyway, we've known in history, nuclear weapons have
20:27only really been used once in a conflict setting.
20:30And this was back in 1945.
20:32No one has really used it.
20:35It's more of a threat that people have.
20:39Sometimes it's also a kind of national glamour project that, oh, we can produce a nuclear weapon or we have
20:44nuclear energy or whatever.
20:47And Iran has been very clear.
20:48It doesn't want a nuclear weapon.
20:50And as you and as this and the analysis that you read, and a lot of people have been saying
20:55this, Iran doesn't need a nuclear weapon.
20:57We've seen that it's used the Strait of Hormuz effectively.
21:01It has regional allies that it can rely on for, you know, to assert pressure on other countries or other
21:08sort of belligerent countries like Israel.
21:11And that it has a stockpile of missiles that it can use to defend itself.
21:16So, we know that the nuclear weapon is not necessary.
21:19It's got other things in it.
21:21And it's got other bargaining chips that it can use.
21:24Now, looking briefly just at the U.S., looking at the recent news coming out regarding the U.S. Senate
21:31passing this bill, directing a president to remove U.S. armed forces from hostilities under the War Powers Act, thus
21:39requiring Trump to seek congressional approval before resuming any hostility with Iran.
21:46Do you think you agree with the overall analysis that says this is largely symbolic or do you think this
21:53might have an actual impact on the conflict?
21:57The war against Iran was not popular in the U.S.
22:01So, when the U.S. launched its attack on Iran, there was no congressional approval for it.
22:10So, you know, to my knowledge, I think the U.S. just went for it more or less.
22:15And I think we saw this in other places as well, that, you know, Trump has not used Congress to
22:22wage war in Iran and to also have other kind of military, to go for military campaigns in other countries.
22:33So, we know that Iran has, so the U.S. has bypassed this in the past.
22:39So, having this kind of bill being passed might have, might help a little bit, might sort of limit Trump's
22:49abilities to wage war.
22:50I don't know whether it would necessarily stop hostilities with Iran because a lot of things might change.
22:55He might have enough support in the Senate to go ahead with future hostilities.
23:00But I think it would limit it a little bit, even though, you know, Trump has said he will go
23:04back to hostilities if Iran didn't, you know, uphold its part of the bargain.
23:09But again, sort of patterns have shown that U.S. will go back to the negotiating table.
23:16We know that the U.S. and Iran, you know, in the past have, you know, opted for the negotiating
23:21table.
23:22So, I think the bill might sort of stop hostilities.
23:28I mean, it will at least limit hostilities or at least slow down Trump's sort of quick decision-making process.
23:36So, yeah, I think it would have an impact.
23:39Now, of course, we're talking about the negotiation.
23:42We can't leave out the more unpredictable or erratic factor here being Israel.
23:49What do you think this deal leaves Israel?
23:53And more importantly, what do you think it means for peace prospects in Lebanon?
23:59Israel has been quite against the deal.
24:05And I think it sort of shows, it sees the deal as a sort of selling out of Israel to
24:11some extent.
24:11And it feels that, you know, any kind of, if peace with Iran was achieved, then Israel would, you know,
24:17sort of feel even more attacked, more in a hostile neighborhood.
24:21And it might sort of take on, take this out on Lebanon.
24:25And it will always sort of see Lebanon and Hezbollah and therefore Iran as its enemy.
24:30So, I think we'll see Israel kind of continuing on its belligerent path.
24:37But because Iran has tied what happens to Lebanon with Iran, this is going to be, I think this is
24:44the weakest part of the deal.
24:47In the sense that, I mean, it's the strongest part of the deal in the sense that it brings Lebanon,
24:53it brings the region sort of, so Iran is not alone.
24:56It brings the region together. Iran has shown that it is, you know, it wants to protect its allies to
25:03a large extent.
25:04So, that's, I guess, a strong part of the deal.
25:06But the weak part in the sense that one of the biggest reasons why the deal may not go through
25:10is because of that, is because of what might happen with Israel.
25:16And Israel has not, you know, even though it's said it will honor a ceasefire, it hasn't.
25:22We still have seen continued action in Lebanon.
25:27I believe something like 5% of Lebanon still is under Israeli occupation.
25:32So, we know that this is going to be quite, yeah, this might hinder the deal.
25:39Because Iran is always going to kind of make sure that Lebanon is part of it, that Lebanon maintains, that
25:46peace is somewhat maintained in Lebanon.
25:48But again, that's also going to take a long time, whether Israel wants to pull out of Lebanon completely.
25:54And we know that the Lebanese army is very weak.
25:57So, without a Lebanese army, we're still relying, they're still relying on Hezbollah to protect its borders.
26:03So, it's very complicated there.
26:06But yeah, that's, I think, going to be the biggest hindrance to a proper U.S.-Iran deal.
26:12Which probably, you know, and maybe we can sort of end on this here, is that I think it shows
26:18that a U.S.-Iran deal is not bilateral.
26:21It has to include the region.
26:23It has to include other players, whether it's the Gulf states.
26:26And we're seeing Qatar actually playing quite a role, quite a big role, again, as an in-between, which is
26:32very good.
26:33And I think that's a very positive sign.
26:35But it must include Israel.
26:37And this includes U.S.-Israeli relations as well, a re-examination of that to some extent.
26:43Thank you so much for your time and your insight, Rowena.
26:46Of course, early days in the negotiation, a long journey ahead.
26:50As you said, a lot of patience is required here, but we'll continue to bring more updates and analysis as
26:56the negotiation develops.
26:58Thank you so much.
26:59That was Dr. Rowena Abdul-Razad, lecturer in Middle East History at SOAS, for sharing some of her insights and
27:05analysis on what we can expect in the weeks and months to come as the peace negotiation goes on between
27:11the U.S. and Iran.
27:12That is all on Awani Global this week with me.
27:13Naila, we'll catch you next time.
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