- 4 weeks ago
Amid wars on two fronts, the 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara serves as a critical juncture for the alliance as it faces colliding trans-atlantic policies, U.S. budget demands, and questions of unity. Nailah Huda is joined by Dr Kadir Temiz, President of ORSAM in Ankara, to discuss the changing security environment faced by NATO and the increasingly strategic role played by Türkiye.
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00:07This is Awani Global with me, Nailah Huda.
00:09And this week we want to take a close look at the NATO Summit where leaders of the Transatlantic Security
00:15Alliance gathered in Ankara amid wars on two fronts, one in Russia and of course another in Iran.
00:22And while leaders of the European countries expressed concerns about the prolonged war with Russia, what did get the most
00:30attention and media coverage, however, was as always US President Donald Trump's statements about Iran, one of which includes declaring
00:39the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran effectively over.
00:44So a lot to unpack, of course, from the NATO Summit to the statements by world leaders or leaders of
00:53the Transatlantic Security Alliance in Ankara.
00:55So to help shed some light on highlights and potential setbacks from the summit repercussions, joining us from Ankara online
01:04is Dr. Khadir, President of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, ORSAM.
01:09Thank you so much, Dr. Khadir, for joining us again on Awani Global.
01:13Before we dive into the NATO Summit, I think it's also worth mentioning and pointing out President Trump's meeting with
01:21President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
01:23What do you think were some of the highlights from this official meeting?
01:27Okay, thank you.
01:28Thank you for inviting me.
01:30Actually, I think the meeting between President Trump and President Erdogan sends two clear messages, in my opinion.
01:39The first is political one.
01:41Another one, of course, on defense cooperation.
01:44As you know, in the political one, over the past few years, Turkey-US relations have experienced several difficult moments
01:55from S-400 or to Syria.
02:00And the fact that the both leaders now emphasize the dialogue and strategic cooperation, and this suggests that the both
02:09sides are trying to rebuild confidence without pretending that all disagreements have disappeared.
02:19Actually, there are certain number of disagreements between the U.S. and Turkey, but at the end of the day,
02:26both presidents agreed on some certain points again to improve the relations.
02:35And the second message about the defense cooperation, and if you look at the press briefing of both presidents, the
02:48discussion on possible sale of F-35 fighter jets is symbolically and strategically important, because it would indicate that Washington
02:58is willing to move beyond the disputes of the last decade.
03:02And Trump emphasized so much on the Biden administration's mistake and others, and, by the way, reconsidered Turkey as an
03:11essential defense partner within NATO.
03:15So, however, from Turkey's perspective, the F-35 issue is no longer simply about purchasing an aircraft.
03:26Since Turkey was removed from the F-35 program, you know, Turkey has invested heavily in its indigenous defense industry.
03:37So, projects such as KAN, Kizilelma, Siper, Hisar, and they are all the name of Turkish aircrafts and technologies and
03:46defense industry's success stories, actually.
03:49They all significantly reduced Turkey's dependence on foreign suppliers.
03:56So, therefore, yes, if the F-35 sale moves forward, it will certainly strengthen NATO interoperability.
04:06By the way, this issue discussed a lot during this summit, interoperability.
04:13But, you know, it will not reverse Turkey's long-term strategy of strategic autonomy in defense industry.
04:21So, in other words, I think Turkey welcomes defense cooperation with its allies, including with United States.
04:30But it no longer sees foreign procurement as the only option for ensuring the national security.
04:38Therefore, in this NATO summit, bilateral relations between the U.S. and Turkey is going well, and it's improved a
04:49lot, actually.
04:50We will see outcomes, more outcomes in the further development in the next couple of days and month, maybe.
04:58We will discuss more about developments in defense agreements, particularly with Turkey.
05:05But just some of the overall outlook on the NATO summit, what do you think would be some of the
05:13key highlights, outcomes, or potential setbacks that you've seen from the summit in the past two days?
05:22You know, NATO published a document yesterday evening, and we have read it as NATO's, you know, declaration.
05:35And in that declaration, there are several points, actually, we can talk.
05:40But we have to emphasize this, NATO is no longer focused only to Europe.
05:48Yes, it's a Euro-Atlantic alliance, but the coming challenges is not only limited in Europe or even European neighborhood.
06:01Today, the security of the Black Sea, the Middle East, the Eastern Mediterranean, okay, they are a close neighborhood of
06:09NATO countries.
06:10But along with that, there are some technological developments, cyber threats, for example, in missile defense, artificial intelligence, and critical
06:22infrastructures and minerals, for example, chips.
06:25They are becoming interconnected, actually, and the challenge is not coming from geographically close regions.
06:34So NATO's, you know, perspective now reaches to the world changing and the world transforming, and NATO in that summit
06:45actually realized the importance of it.
06:48So in this context, Turkey's importance has increased considerably, because Turkey, you know, is unique, because it's simultaneously borders Europe,
07:02the Black Sea, the Caucasus, the Middle East.
07:04I mean, in the middle of the East and West, yes, it's right, but strategically, it's in the middle of
07:11almost all conflict-ridden regions.
07:14So it's also NATO's second largest military after the United States, and has become one of the alliance's major contributors
07:23in terms of operational capability.
07:26Another important outcome of this summit was the growing emphasis on defense industrial capacity, for example.
07:34In the declaration, we have seen this as well.
07:36So in this sense, Turkey also belongs to this category.
07:41I mean, Turkey's industrial capacity is very, very, you know, powerful when you compare it to previous years.
07:53And the war in Ukraine and the recent conflict, you also mentioned about Iran, demonstrated that the military strength today
08:01depends not only on troop numbers.
08:04Yes, troop numbers is important.
08:05Turkey is a very important place in that sense.
08:08But also on production capacity and, of course, technological capability, they're also important.
08:16And Turkey also, and also NATO countries realize the importance of it.
08:21And countries today that can rapidly manufacture missiles, drones, air defense system, and ammunition have become strategically more valuable.
08:31And I think in this NATO summit, we have seen all of this discussed.
08:38And of course, we shouldn't forget that inside NATO, there are a number of critical, you know, issues that we
08:47have to be careful.
08:48The first one is the financial issues and the burden sharing and Trump and Secretary of General Mark Rutte also
08:58brings this issue on the agenda.
09:02And as you know, until 2035, NATO countries trying to reach the 5.5 percent level in their defense, you
09:16know, budget in terms of each country's GDP.
09:19But it's not an easy job, of course, step-by-step approach will be implemented, probably.
09:26But it is very critical because, you know, until that time, the United States was paying much more than the
09:35other countries.
09:36So the U.S. criticism is clear and still on the table.
09:40But the European countries should decide on it.
09:45And Turkey is ready for this.
09:49But the other countries, especially Europeans, should decide about their strategic security and foreign policy perspective regarding the NATO financial
10:01issues and NATO requirements in coming years.
10:06Of course, of course, other issue that we discussed in NATO's role in Ukraine is very clear that the steel
10:15Russia is the main threat for the NATO countries and NATO will continue to support Ukraine.
10:24There is no doubt that it will continue.
10:27But of course, now, as I told you before, today's security environment is changing.
10:35Only military options, not enough to solve the problems.
10:41So therefore, along with Turkey, Turkey's relation with Russia as well, as you know, Turkey is trying to be neutral
10:50as NATO member.
10:52Of course, it's impossible, but trying to be.
10:54I mean, trying to convince the Russian side and the Ukraine side coming together to solve their problems in a
11:01diplomatic way.
11:02But, you know, the war is already started and going on.
11:08And, of course, the old sides will also push the peaceful way of solving the problems in Ukraine.
11:20Yes, there are a number of debates, of course, but in terms of NATO's priorities, these are important, very important
11:30issues in these two days of NATO summit in Ankara.
11:33They are all discussed.
11:35You mentioned a lot of important points there, but one of which you pointed out, concerns surrounding funding and burden
11:44sharing.
11:45This also got a lot of attention in media among analysts.
11:48But if we look at Secretary General Mark Rutte's statement, he reassured that the US remains committed to NATO.
11:57But looking at the summit, how confident are you about the US and particularly President Trump's commitment to the alliance?
12:05Yes, this is a really important, controversial issue.
12:08If you look at all the press briefing at the end of the NATO summit, there are certain misunderstandings as
12:17we have seen it.
12:18Especially if you look at Trump's, you know, Spain remarks, it's very interesting.
12:24Spain is one of NATO allies, but targeted by Trump's, you know, very, very, very, you know, I mean, the
12:35sensitive topic.
12:37Yes, Mark Rutte's reassurance in terms of US commitment is certainly important.
12:44However, I think the question today is not whether the United States remains committed to NATO.
12:51The question is what kind of NATO the United States wants.
12:56So it's not only related to Trump, because if you look at the US security approach in the world politics,
13:05it's completely changing, transforming, I mean.
13:08For example, until 2024, we had China in the NATO declarations.
13:16China is, of course, not defined as a threat, but the coming challenge.
13:20But in this two years NATO declaration, there was no China.
13:24So it changes according to, I mean, it is my personal opinion, according to US political priorities.
13:33For example, President Trump expects European allies to take some great responsibility for their own security.
13:45This does not necessarily mean weakening NATO, actually, because there should be a kind of, you know, equality and the
13:54justice among the NATO member countries.
13:58Instead, this reflects an effort to transform the NATO into an alliance with great burden sharing.
14:05So the United States pushing this actually, in my opinion, Turkey fits well into this evolving model,
14:14because it has consistently increased its defense capabilities, I already told you,
14:22and contributes significantly to regional security and NATO's budgets.
14:26And, but Trump administration and the United States will continue to push this momentum.
14:36It is not an easy job to change it overnight, but probably in the next NATO summit, we will continue
14:44to discuss it,
14:44and we will see the outcomes.
14:46For example, next year's, in step-by-step approach, in every year, the NATO countries expect to rise their defense
14:58expenditure as 1.5%,
15:02and 1.5% and 1.5% it will reach to 500% after decades.
15:10Therefore, the United States and the United States and the Trump is right to push European countries to this direction.
15:17But there are, you know, certain numbers of difficulties inside European Union and European countries as well.
15:25And we will see the outcomes in the next NATO summons, I think.
15:30Again, a lot of interesting points there, and I want to shift gears just slightly,
15:35because, you know, we can't help but to look at some of the strong statements coming from President Trump,
15:42particularly to do with the war in Iran.
15:45A lot of the dissatisfaction that President Trump has expressed concerns this conflict in Iran,
15:52criticizing some of the allies in NATO for refusing to back the US and Israel during the conflict with Iran
15:59now worsening already,
16:01with the state of the MOU, you know, being uncertain.
16:05What do you make of all of this?
16:07If we can shift gears a little bit and look at what's developing with the Iran war,
16:12do you think this setback is expected with what Trump declared the MOU being effectively over between the US and
16:21Iran?
16:22Do you think that we should have expected this setback?
16:25Is this business as usual between the US and Iran towards the prospect of peace?
16:32Unfortunately, I'm one of the pessimists on this topic.
16:35Yes, there's an MOU we are talking,
16:38but we have to accept that the Iran conflict has entered a different phase now.
16:45At the earlier phase focused primarily on military confrontation,
16:50and today we see a combination of military pressure, diplomacy, sanctions and negotiation,
16:56but we don't know how they will go hand in hand,
17:00because during the military confrontation,
17:02we actually expect that,
17:05okay, there will be some defense, you know,
17:07capabilities that Gulf countries and Israel should rise.
17:13But today, now there are complicated issues.
17:17They all come together.
17:19For example, military pressure.
17:23And during this MOU and negotiation process,
17:26there's a ceasefire.
17:27I mean, the so-called ceasefire,
17:29because still some certain violations going on in the field.
17:37Now, just yesterday, there were some bombings.
17:39And so, yes, military pressure is going on.
17:43For example, before Trump left Ankara,
17:47he declared that maybe tonight we will start a military attack again to Iran.
17:53Interestingly, it's going like that,
17:56but regarding NATO,
17:58President Trump's criticism of some allies
18:01reflects differences in tactics rather than strategic objectives, in my opinion.
18:06For example, Spain is completely against this Iranian war,
18:10and Trump's trying to convince the others.
18:14Of course, it's not a NATO country.
18:16I mean, it's not the NATO's sphere of, you know, operations.
18:24There is no mandate on Iran in NATO.
18:28So, NATO members maybe share concerns about Iran's nuclear program.
18:35We have seen, by the way, in the NATO summit documents,
18:40yes, there is an Iran.
18:41They underline the importance of it.
18:44However, they differ on how to address it.
18:48So, some prefer sustained military pressures.
18:52Others believe diplomacy should remain the primary instrument.
18:57Therefore, I would describe these agreements as debates over methods
19:04rather than fundamental division within NATO.
19:07Somebody read it from the NATO perspective.
19:10It's very critical and very important controversy inside the NATO members.
19:16But there is a methodological, you know, differences, I think,
19:21between Spain, let me say, some European countries, and the United States.
19:25As for the MOU with Iran,
19:28of course, its difficulties were not entirely unexpected, in my opinion.
19:33And if you look at the number of these 14 articles, you know,
19:37that were in MOU,
19:40and all of them are very big issues.
19:45And every time,
19:47when I'm observing Iran-US negotiation for decades, actually,
19:51it's not a new issue.
19:52These negotiations have always experienced cycles of escalation.
19:58I mean, followed by diplomacy and military escalation, etc.
20:03This pattern has existed for decades.
20:06So, but today, the real challenge is not signing agreements,
20:11but implementing them.
20:13So, we can write a lot of articles, you know, 14, 15,
20:17but what about the implementation?
20:19The most difficult issues remain,
20:22in my opinion, uranium enrichment, for example,
20:25and sanctions relief,
20:27and how the other countries will do it,
20:31and regional security proxies, etc.
20:35And, of course, the mutual trust.
20:39Nobody trusts each other.
20:40Then, they are the critical issues on table.
20:44I think it will also be interesting to hear some of your thoughts
20:47on President Erdogan's speech at the NATO summit.
20:51What do you think were some of the key highlights for you,
20:54looking at President Erdogan's speech?
20:57Yes.
20:58There were a lot of meetings, by the way.
21:00President Erdogan met with, you know, Zelensky and Ahmet al-Shara
21:05and other, you know, head of states and prime ministers, etc.
21:12But at the end of the meeting,
21:16he holds a press briefing and gets some questions placed.
21:24What I understand, his messages,
21:27there are, in my opinion, there are three messages,
21:29three main messages.
21:31The first one is,
21:33okay, we are talking about the NATO security,
21:37and NATO, and Turkey is part of NATO,
21:40and we committed on NATO,
21:44but cannot be separated,
21:46NATO cannot be separated from instability in the Middle East,
21:50because Turkey shows this reality to the member of NATO countries.
21:55Some NATO countries, you know, the Canada, for example,
21:58and let me say the other Baltic countries,
22:01they're far away from the Middle East.
22:03For example, in the Cold War mentality,
22:06they are focusing on Russia so much,
22:08or the Euro-Atlantic security.
22:10But now, the challenge is coming from the Middle East,
22:13for example, Eastern Mediterranean.
22:16Syria's civil war affects the European security, right?
22:19Because of migration, etc.
22:21Then, President Erdogan emphasized this,
22:26and conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Iran,
22:30directly affect European security
22:32through migration, terrorism, energy markets, etc.
22:37The second main message, of course,
22:41about the defense industrial cooperation within NATO,
22:44and Turkey and President Erdogan called for stronger cooperation.
22:52Turkey emphasized that security today
22:54should include technological resilience.
22:58That's critical.
22:59Turkey investing a lot on cybersecurity,
23:01artificial intelligence, and defense innovation.
23:05And another one, actually,
23:10the third message that we have seen in Erdogan's remark
23:14is Turkey belongs to NATO,
23:18but NATO also should consider the Turkey as priorities.
23:21Turkey has some priorities in its foreign policy,
23:28security environment, and defense industrial capacity.
23:31So there should not be trade barriers.
23:34There should not be sanctions.
23:37There should not be any kind of limitation on procurement, for example.
23:42Yes, Turkey is investing on so much
23:45its own national security, you know, defense industrial production.
23:53But if we are talking about the NATO as an organization,
23:57as a unity of 32 countries,
24:00along with some, you know, other supporters,
24:05at the end of the day,
24:06Turkey wants this unity,
24:08and Erdogan has given strong messages,
24:12actually, on these three topics.
24:15Yeah.
24:16We have just about one, two minutes left,
24:18but I think it's also important to point out
24:21or to elaborate on some of your points,
24:24talking about the need to pay more attention
24:28to Turkey's priorities within NATO as well,
24:32and having to do with the defense industry restrictions specifically.
24:37Do you think that some of these restrictions
24:40are purely economic protectionist policies,
24:46or do you think that there's also,
24:48you know, maybe geopolitical
24:51or political differences factors there?
24:55Yes, I totally agree with you and with your question.
24:59Some parts are political and others are economic.
25:02Yes, I understand the economic ones
25:04because, you know,
25:05we face these economic difficulties together in the world,
25:10but some are political.
25:12And so we have to talk, you know, both, of course,
25:17but Turkey's perspective is
25:19all these restrictions on defense cooperation
25:21undermine the alliance itself.
25:24If allies impose export restrictions on one another
25:28during times of crisis, for example, in Iranian crisis,
25:32so how we will talk about the collective security,
25:36and then the collective security inevitably becomes weaker.
25:42So when it comes to Turkey's priorities
25:46and Turkey's defense industry restrictions,
25:49for example, S-400 system
25:52and disagreements over the S-400 system
25:55that Turkey has bought it from Russia,
25:57this is clearly political.
26:00Nobody is talking how we came, end up in that discussion.
26:04What happened before Turkey bought the S-400, for example?
26:09So if you remember this discussion,
26:12we understood very well that
26:13that Turkey is trying to push NATO's unity,
26:19not the fragmentation.
26:21So, for example, regional policies.
26:24For long years, unfortunately,
26:27some NATO member countries
26:28against the Syria's policy,
26:31Turkey's Syria's policy.
26:32But at the end of today, what happened?
26:35And in Syria,
26:36and Turkey has pushed this moment,
26:39and now we have a new Syria.
26:42So regional policies have influenced defense cooperation,
26:46unfortunately.
26:47They are a political one.
26:48What about the economic one?
26:49Of course, the European defense companies,
26:52they naturally seek to protect their own industries.
26:56Okay, everybody and every country
26:58has different sovereign countries.
27:00However, today's security environment
27:03is very different.
27:06Russia's war in Ukraine,
27:07conflicts in the Middle East, for example,
27:09I told you,
27:10and demonstrate that NATO needs
27:12greater production capacity,
27:15not less cooperation.
27:17For example,
27:18if you cannot produce enough ammunition,
27:22if you don't have enough drones,
27:25and then it's impossible to be successful
27:28in any kind of front,
27:30then,
27:31so there is no enough European production,
27:35I think.
27:36And just look at Ukraine war's outcomes
27:39in the inventories,
27:40ammunition,
27:41et cetera,
27:41there are all problems.
27:42So Turkey has become one of the alliance's
27:45fastest growing defense producers,
27:47but Turkey is trying to push this.
27:49Therefore,
27:50integrating Turkey
27:51more closely
27:53into European defense initiatives
27:54would strengthen NATO,
27:56in my opinion.
27:57Overall,
27:58all the resilience
27:59rather than weaken European industries
28:01and the cooperation mechanism
28:03should be rethinking.
28:06Plenty more, of course,
28:07we'd like to unpack here,
28:08but that is all the time that we have.
28:10Thank you so much to Dr. Khadir,
28:12to Ms. President of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies
28:14or some joining us online from Ankara
28:17and helping us shed some light
28:19on key highlights, outcomes,
28:21and potential setbacks
28:22from the NATO Summit in Ankara.
28:24That is all on Awani Global this week with me.
28:26Nala Huda,
28:26we'll catch you next time.
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