00:03Hello New South Wales! This is your weekly weather update. So coming ahead this week we have a calm
00:09start to the week but there is some really interesting mid-level dynamics happening from
00:13midweek onwards which will see a lot of weather being delivered to the northwest coast so we'll
00:19break that down. Starting off on Monday we still have some marine wind warnings down along the
00:25central sort of New South Wales coastline but that should ease Tuesday into Wednesday. Let's have a
00:32look at that it's just some strong onshore flow but again Tuesday yep the gusts reduce and it doesn't
00:40quite pick up into the interior. Let's talk about the rain that's coming on the way. So down in the
00:47southern alpine regions you'll be getting rain from a few frontal systems that are hitting Monday and
00:53Tuesday but the rest of New South Wales is nice and dry for those systems. Down in the south the
00:58possibility of maximum 15 to 25 mils far more likely between the 5 and 10 sort of range. That continues
01:07again for Tuesday and until Wednesday it starts to calm down in the south but it starts to pick up
01:13along that northeast coast. So Wednesday it doesn't quite hit but you can start to see this system
01:20developing. You cannot see it on a mean sea level pressure map. This is a mid-level dynamic driven
01:26system driven by very warm moist waters and air mass in the Pacific. It's Thursday where you can start to
01:36see the accumulation really hit. Possibility of 25 to 50 mils onshore. If we go inwards though it's between
01:441 and 15 mils really. That continues to stick around and intensify onto Friday into Saturday and Sunday
01:53as well. So we can see there's multiple days of moderate rainfall. There's a chance, we'll zoom right in
02:01here, of 75 to 100 mils. Now this is over Dorigo at the moment but because this is a Saturday
02:10forecast,
02:11so that's you know six to seven days ahead, we're not saying that that is the region that's going to
02:16get
02:1675 to 100 mils. We're saying that this system has the possibility of in a very localized area delivering
02:23that level of intensity anywhere really along this northern coast area. A much larger region, possibility of
02:3450 to 75. So there's a lot of moisture available in this system over multiple days. We're going to have
02:40a look at Lismore to gain a bit of an understanding about the certainty around these ranges. So at the
02:46start of the week it's nice and dry, zero mils up until Wednesday, Thursday nine mils arrives, Friday 26,
02:55Saturday 13, Sunday 12, Monday 4. Okay let's look at our pro range on the Friday and what I want
03:03to show
03:04here is that the Canadian, US and EU models, they are all showing rainfall for this like multi the
03:12Thursday, Friday, Saturday and if I zoom ahead it will also show into Sunday. But each of the models
03:17is showing different amounts on different days. So this Friday which is when the intense rainfall for
03:24at least the Lismore area is expected to arrive, we can see that the US model is throwing a lot
03:32more
03:32rain out than some of the Canadian and EU models but they're all showing lots of rain. So what that
03:40certainty range is showing us is that these systems have the potential to deliver high falls but because
03:47the forecast is so far out in advance we're not having very good certainty at this point as to
03:55which locations we'll be receiving that intense rainfall. So that's all that spread shows. There's
04:01rain coming, it'll go to widespread areas along that north coast but as to where the majority of it hits
04:07we'll have to wait to see how the models are developing. Because it's a mid-level dynamic driven
04:12system I think it'll be really interesting to watch how the different models spin it out. So that's
04:18something I keep my eye out on if that is a concern to you at all. Otherwise the rest of
04:25the state is
04:26relatively dry, some light showers are on the way for the week as well. Okay so that's New South Wales
04:32for
04:32this week. If you're down in the southern alpine regions the moisture is at the start of the week and
04:37then it calms down as a high pressure system moves over. If you are up in the north coastal regions
04:42it's calm at the start of the week and then as a mid-level dynamic system approaches and develops
04:48it's the end of the week that has the possibility to deliver moderate to severe rainfalls in local
04:53areas. Okay have a great week, do stay safe and we'll see you next time.
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