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IIUM's Syaza Shukri points out that BN won handsomely in the 2021 Melaka and 2022 Johor state elections but delivered its worst electoral performance in GE15.

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https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2026/07/07/bn-win-in-johor-wont-necessarily-trigger-national-resurgence

Laporan Lanjut:
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/bahasa/tempatan/2026/07/07/menang-johor-belum-tentu-cetus-gelombang-nasional-bn-kata-penganalisis

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Transcript
00:00A Barisan Nasional win in the upcoming Johor state election may not be enough to spark a nationwide comeback.
00:08Political analyst Shazza Shukri said BN's strong performances at the Melaka and Johor state elections held in 2021 and 2022
00:17came amid low voter turnout due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
00:21She said those successes did not translate into a nationwide resurgence with the coalition performing badly at the 15th general
00:29election later in 2022.
00:32BN secured only 30 seats in GE15.
00:37Shazza noted that even in Johor, the coalition was outperformed by Pakatan Harapan with PH capturing 13 parliamentary seats compared
00:46to BN's nine.
00:48She said that even if BN performs well in Johor, any momentum from that victory could be lost unless a
00:55general election follows quickly.
00:58Meanwhile, University Science Malaysia Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid said BN's national resurgence would depend more on reviving UMNO's cooperation with
01:07PAS than on the coalition's own strength.
01:09He said BN still struggles to win support from non-Malay and urban Malay voters, which largely backs Pakatan Harapan.
01:19Roman Dawiga Pari, FMT.
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