00:00Well, the heat is building across the plains, the Midwest, and into the Northeast.
00:04Our first big heat wave of the year, and this is going to be a broiling one.
00:09Classic old-fashioned heat wave. There's nothing old-fashioned about it.
00:12We have a lot of these in the current day, obviously, and, in fact, the intensity of them is escalating
00:19here in many regards.
00:20Well, here we have the heat dome expanding across more of the Midwest and into the Northeast of mid-Atlantic
00:25states,
00:26and here you can see AccuWeather, real field temperatures 100 to 110.
00:30The risk of heat-related illnesses will be spiking in many of these areas here Wednesday and Thursday,
00:35and high energy demand on the map.
00:38We're going to look at this through a few different lenses here, and just right off the bat, I do
00:44want to acknowledge
00:44we're going to talk also about some storms, the Ring of Fire, around the periphery of the heat.
00:48We have sinking air in the plains and the Ohio Valley with that core of the heat dome,
00:54but around the periphery of that, that's where there is less sinking air.
00:57In fact, even opportunities for rising motion, and that's where we're facing some strong storms.
01:01We've had some nasty storms up into the upper Midwest, and, again, these are the areas where the storms are
01:05going to be percolating
01:06over the next few days.
01:08Now, before we get into some details, I want to bring up some big-picture computer modeling
01:13and show you the core of the heat dome, and overall, we can clearly plot it.
01:19We're looking around, really, all the way up around 20,000 feet, the 500 millibar level in the atmosphere.
01:27And that's where we have some very significant heat out there in regards to large mountain of air.
01:35Hot air expands, so it occupies more volume, and it's almost like mountains of air and valleys of air
01:42when we characterize the air mass, and in this case, we're dealing with a very large hot air mass
01:48across much of the central and into the eastern U.S.
01:52Here we are on a Tuesday.
01:53The core of this is drifting east with time, and we're going to be dealing with, again,
01:58a lot of big-time heat across more of the plains.
02:01Now, as we look at the overall flow aloft, if you're on the west side of a ridge,
02:05you're getting flow from the southwest.
02:07If you're on the east side, it's actually flow from the northeast,
02:09so it's kind of the central and western part of this ridge where the heat is searing the most.
02:14And then you can see it just expands.
02:16And, again, a lot of the time if we get up to around 600 decameters here,
02:21we're close to the threshold.
02:23You can see there's a closed 594, 588, 594.
02:28We're close to a little bubble of 600.
02:31And we never quite make it there with the GFS, but it's going to be hot regardless.
02:36Sometimes in the plains, we'll get a 600 decameter contour.
02:40I don't see that with any of these.
02:42But regardless, the persistence of this is going to be significant enough that we're dealing with some very significant heat.
02:49And some spots will even get close to record highs or even break record highs in a few cases.
02:53We'll look at Thursday for the big cities.
02:55We'll be close to records in a few spots.
02:57Now, if we look at this, this is the shift of tails.
03:01This is like a statistical approach to look at the European Temperature Index.
03:06And are we above or below average?
03:08And are we way above or way below average?
03:10How rare is this?
03:12And we look at the 29th here.
03:13We're looking at, let's go ahead to the 30th.
03:16This is when the core of this, Tuesday and into Wednesday,
03:21begins to shift into more of the Midwest and the Great Lakes.
03:24Meanwhile, we're especially cool in the western U.S.
03:28But again, the core of this on the, here we are valid on 0Z on July 1st is really the
03:36preceding day.
03:37So this is the time leading up to 8 p.m.
03:410Z would be midnight Greenwich meantime.
03:44Shave four hours off of that for the eastern U.S.
03:46So here we're looking at the final day of June.
03:48This is, again, we're looking into the second.
03:51So this is really the 1st of July, if we're ending at 8 p.m. on the 2nd at Greenwich
03:57Mean Time.
03:57So here we're looking at the time frame for July 1st.
04:01And again, July 1st will take us into the middle of the week.
04:05And into the latter part of the week here, this is for July 2nd, which would be Thursday.
04:09And then July 3rd, which would be Friday.
04:12And then the timeline leading up to midnight Greenwich Mean Time on July 5th, which is really the 4th of
04:19July here in the U.S.
04:20This is the heat baking the I-95 still on Saturday.
04:25So it gradually shifts east through the second half of the week.
04:27And if we look at maximum temperatures, here's the GFS forecast for high temps.
04:31I see 104 there in central Virginia.
04:36And then the next day, 103.
04:37Then the next day, 105.
04:39And then a 106.
04:41Even a 106 for Philly in the forecast in the GFS.
04:44What's the, looking at, I see a 103 for New York City for Friday's high.
04:50What does that actually look like here in the European model?
04:54Not quite as hot, but almost as hot.
04:58So there's a slight difference in the computer modeling for the intensity of the heat.
05:03But, again, it's going to be very, very hot.
05:05We'll show you our accurate weather forecast in just a minute.
05:08One of the problems here is the overnight lows.
05:10They stay way up.
05:11Overnight lows in Philadelphia around 81 for Wednesday night to Thursday morning.
05:16That's hot.
05:17An overnight low of 82 is a classic heat wave here when you have overnight lows of 80 or warmer.
05:23And then still upper 70s here for the overnight low leading up into Saturday morning.
05:28So that's really, really hot.
05:30I want to take you into our graphics.
05:32And the AccuWeather Heat Wave Severity Index is a statistical method we use to characterize
05:38the intensity and the duration of a heat wave.
05:42At New York City, in New York City, we set the threshold at 90 degrees.
05:46If we string three or more days together in a row in which Central Park hits 90 plus,
05:52and then if we're well above 90 for any of those days, it begins to add to the tally.
05:56We have 14 units on our AccuWeather Heat Wave Severity Index.
06:01We didn't have a single heat wave last year or the year before at that threshold for New York City.
06:06Let's look at history.
06:07So if we got a 14-unit heat wave for New York City, since 2000, the worst was August 5th
06:16to 10th of 2001, 23 units.
06:19Second worst was the next year, 20 units.
06:21So we said 14 units.
06:22Where would that land us?
06:23We've got to go a little deeper into the list.
06:25This would be our eighth worst heat wave in New York City since the year 2000.
06:29Pretty impressive stuff.
06:31And by the way, that's for New York City.
06:33For Philadelphia, we're looking at 45 units for the year and 21 units just for this event.
06:38We didn't have any 21-unit heat waves last year in Philadelphia.
06:43So it could be our worst heat wave there in over a year.
06:47And close to records for Thursday for the Daily Records.
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