00:00The Energy Chamber said that according to the IMF's 2026 Article 4 report, Trinidad and Tobago's energy sector growth was
00:09only 0.4% in 2024 before an estimated contraction of 0.5% in 2025.
00:17The Energy Chamber further stated that the sector is projected to contract further by 4.5% in 2026 and
00:26is one of the reasons overall real GDP growth is expected to remain modest at 0.8% in both
00:322025 and 2026.
00:35The Energy Chamber said the IMF's report also shows how the structure of the economy is continuing to shift as
00:43the energy sector accounted for 22.5% of GDP in 2024, an estimated 20.9% in 2025 and
00:53is projected to fall slightly to 20.7% in 2026,
00:57while the non-energy sector, by comparison, is expected to account for 79.3% of GDP in 2026.
01:06However, the Energy Chamber said the energy sector remains critical to government revenue and foreign exchange as it noted energy
01:14revenue is estimated at 9.9% of GDP in 2025 and is projected to rise to 10.2%
01:22in 2026.
01:23This reflects the effect of higher global energy prices, even as production remains weak, according to the Chamber.
01:32The Energy Chamber said the medium-term outlook is more positive.
01:37Energy Minister Dr. Rudal Munilal recently expressed his optimism in the Parliament as he referred to a report from another
01:43international agency.
01:46I'm quoting the Moody's report.
01:48We, however, expect a meaningful boost to oil and gas production from late 2027, following final investment decisions taken on
01:57several large upstream projects, which would lift production for several years.
02:03Natural gas output is expected to increase as new fields come on stream, including manatee, ginger, afrodite, which combined would
02:13lift production towards 3 to 3.5 billion cubic feet per day, which most people would tell you is what
02:20is required.
02:213.5 billion cubic feet per day.
02:23The Energy Chamber said the IMF expects growth to strengthen from 2027 as new energy projects come on stream, particularly
02:32manatee, with real GDP growth projected to rise to 3% in 2027 and average about 3.5% in
02:402028 and 2029.
02:42The Energy Chamber noted that higher energy prices have given Trinidad and Tobago an opportunity to rebuild financial buffers, including
02:50through deposits into the Heritage and Stabilization Fund.
02:54The Energy Chamber also said that at the same time, the IMF's report makes clear that this support depends heavily
03:01on global oil prices, while local production challenges remain.
03:04The Chamber noted that the IMF stated that energy accounts for about three-quarters of the country's foreign exchange supply
03:12and that as energy production has declined, foreign exchange inflows have weakened, contributing to tighter conditions in the foreign exchange
03:20market.
03:20Yet, the Energy Chamber said higher energy prices are expected to provide some relief in 2026, but the report still
03:27identifies foreign exchange shortages as an ongoing macroeconomic concern.
03:32The Energy Chamber said that the IMF's report also notes that the new administration is looking to encourage new investment
03:41in the energy sector, including enhanced recovery from mature fields, deep water exploration bids, and regional collaboration with Guyana, Suriname,
03:51and Venezuela.
03:52The Energy Chamber said these efforts are part of a wider push to support growth while continuing to diversify the
03:59economy.
03:59Julie Brown, TV6 News.
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