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US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a peace Memorandum of Understanding that provides for an immediate halt to all military operations in West Asia for a sixty-day period.
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00:00So the U.S.-Iran MOU the unanswered questions.
00:04What happens if Israel now doesn't honor the truce in Lebanon?
00:07Will Iran and Oman impose fees on ships transiting Hormuz Strait after 60 days?
00:13Who will fund the $300 billion construction aid that's promised for Iran?
00:18Does Iran retain nuclear material after downblending uranium?
00:22Has U.S. lost critical leverage when it agreed to lift the sanctions?
00:26Can U.S. ensure released assets don't go to alleged terror outfits, especially to groups like Hezbollah?
00:32What if no final deal is agreed upon within 60 days?
00:36So lots of big unanswered questions, which leads me to my big question today.
00:41Trump or Iran, who has gained more?
00:43Did Donald Trump lose the battle of nerves?
00:46Will Netanyahu now play spoiled sport?
00:48Will there be a lasting peace at all in West Asia?
00:51Let me go to my first two guests who are joining me.
00:54Chris Osborne is President and Editor-in-Chief, Center for Military Modernization, joined me in Washington, D.C.
01:00Jeffrey Rosh Gunter, former U.S. diplomat, also joins me from Washington.
01:04Good to have both of you there.
01:05Let's cut the chase, as they would say, in your part of the world.
01:08And tell us, what's your first biggest takeaway, Mr. Gunter, from this deal?
01:13Do you believe, as many are suggesting in Washington and across the world, that Donald Trump has had to bend
01:19before Tehran?
01:22Well, absolutely not.
01:23We've absolutely devastated, devastated Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, and all the rest of them.
01:31If you don't believe me, go ask Soleimani.
01:33If you don't believe me, go ask their supreme leader.
01:36If you don't believe me, go find their navy.
01:38Oh, wait, it's at the bottom of the ocean.
01:40Oh, if you don't believe me, go ask the Air Force.
01:42It's not flying anymore.
01:43We've massively destroyed their ability to manufacture, as well, weapons as well, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and the list goes on.
01:53This is a memorandum of understanding, and let's be really direct here.
01:57Iran has a gun against their head.
01:59To quote the president, if they do not comply, we will bomb the hell out of them.
02:03That is exactly what's going on here.
02:06Iran has absolutely...
02:07Well, you know, you're saying that you've sort of sent a tough message to Iran, but when I look at
02:13the deal itself, you're defreezing their assets.
02:16You're promising to ensure $300 billion, reportedly, for the reconstruction of Iran.
02:21The leadership is much the same.
02:24It's not as if...
02:25It's broken.
02:25Yes, individuals have been taken out.
02:27Individuals have been taken out, but the revolutionary guards are in place.
02:31Ayatollah Khamenei's son is in place.
02:33So what's really changed?
02:34What has all this bombing done for the last three months, except allowed Iran to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz?
02:41Well, they haven't weaponized the Strait of Hormuz, and I have to respectfully disagree with your assertion.
02:48And you know who also agrees with me?
02:49The price of oil.
02:50The price of oil currently is $74 a barrel.
02:53So if you think they're really controlling the Strait of Hormuz, why do international markets and $74 a barrel of
03:00oil disagree with that premise?
03:03First and foremost, we have a gun against their head.
03:06This is not a just kind of acquiescence and true negotiation.
03:12President Trump has devastated Iran militarily, their ability to make weapons, and their leadership.
03:18Therefore, the gracious way to do it, the smart way to do it, is do it with dignity for the
03:24Iranians.
03:24And that will give freedom to the 91 million Iranians there are.
03:29And if you look at the surrender of Japan, if you look at the surrender of Germany, it was done
03:34with dignity.
03:35It was done with graciousness.
03:37And guess who met in the G7?
03:39Japan.
03:40Guess who met in the G7?
03:41Even Germany.
03:42It's a very effective and brilliant strategy from President Trump and shows that he's the most powerful man in the
03:51world right now.
03:52And arguably one of the most powerful leaders we've seen in the history of the world.
03:57No doubt about it.
03:58Let me get another viewpoint.
04:00Chris Osborne, how do you see it?
04:02Here we are hearing a viewpoint from Mr. Gunter saying that America has brought Iran to its knees.
04:09Okay, okay.
04:11Ambassador Gunter says that Iran has been brought to its knees.
04:15Your view?
04:17Well, the ambassador raises an important point, and you raise several very important points, which is this question of consequence.
04:24If the prospect of military force is very much a contingency, it could help enable to enforcement of this deal.
04:31As you point out, there are very concerning questions that do remain.
04:35Number one, the Revolutionary Guard is still in place, and they are extremely hard-line.
04:40There are 40,000 Iranians who were murdered by this regime.
04:44The second is the state's support for terrorist activity.
04:47The question remains is, will the Iranians comply?
04:50Will the Houthis, will they be able to stop attacking in the Red Sea?
04:55Will there be further interruptions in the Strait of Hormuz?
04:58Iran has a long history of harassing the U.S. Navy with small boats.
05:02Now, the military threat is not super significant, but it is still there.
05:07The other question is, how much of an arsenal does Iran still retain?
05:11There were underground missiles.
05:13The biggest question, as you mentioned, and the ambassador referred to this quite correctly, is the nuclear possibility.
05:20Now, the president has exerted fantastic leverage and created a very hopeful prospect.
05:26The question remains is, this Iranian regime has a history.
05:30They cannot be trusted.
05:32They are very violent.
05:33They kill their own people, and this supports terrorism around the world.
05:37Will that stop or not?
05:38And what about the Iranians who died in the street wanting a different regime?
05:43So I think there are some real precarious questions that need to be enforced by, as the ambassador said quite
05:49correctly, the prospect of U.S. force.
05:53But, you see, the point I'm making is, how are we different to what happened before the 28th of February,
06:00when the Omanis said there that they're very close to achieving a deal, Chris?
06:06The Omanis had then said they were very close to achieving a deal on the nuclear, on the crucial issue
06:13of a nuclear deal.
06:14What's happened since then?
06:16You've had all these bombings take place.
06:18You've had the world being disrupted.
06:20And we're still not clear whether Iran's, what happens to Iran's nuclear program.
06:25And when I look at the specifics, $300 billion being given for reconstruction, assets being defrozen.
06:31All of this leads to believe that, at the end of the day, the U.S. president was forced to
06:36meet the Iranians more than halfway.
06:40Well, the U.S. president is a very strong leader, and he's been successful in the past when it comes
06:45to the idea of grilling the prospect of military force.
06:48It's a fundamental paradox.
06:50The prospect of attack and military force for the purpose of keeping the peace.
06:55And what that can do is create a massive effect.
06:57He's known as a leader that follows through when there is a red line, which is what brought Iran to
07:02the negotiating table.
07:03It's not mere posturing.
07:05It's not a bluff.
07:06Certainly, as the ambassador said, the Iranian Navy is at the bottom of the ocean.
07:10There is an ability to exact more precision strikes and have a very forceful military effect.
07:15There's also the presence of the United States Navy in the Gulf with the amphibious assault ships and destroyers, which
07:21have massive firepower.
07:23So this idea of leadership and the paradox of presenting the possibility of force to ensure compliance and peace is
07:30the most important thing here.
07:32Because when it comes to the merits of disagreement, this regime cannot be trusted.
07:36And there is a very significant risk involved with this regime.
07:40This regime is violent.
07:42This regime is hardcore.
07:43And the possibility of regime change and freedom for the Iranian people who want something more hangs in the balance
07:49of whether this agreement will be exacted or not.
07:53And there's a long history of this regime harassing with small boats, supporting terrorism.
07:59There's a lot of danger ahead.
08:00But fortunately, the U.S. has the strongest leader it's seen in quite some time.
08:05And this is not a bluff.
08:06The possibility of force to enforce this is extremely credible.
08:11Both of you, in a sense, seem to be seeing this as a win then for President Trump.
08:16Then what explains Jeffrey Gunter?
08:18The kind of political backlash that the president is facing within the United States.
08:22Look at his ratings when it comes to prosecuting the war.
08:25They're the lowest ratings that the U.S. president has had in a very long time.
08:29So surely you're saying that the U.S. president has shown strength.
08:32The people of America don't seem to see that.
08:35Not just his political opponents, but even those within his own coalition.
08:39The MAGA coalition have raised serious questions over the manner in which this war was prosecuted.
08:44I have to respectfully disagree with you.
08:47The reality is, you know, some of the polls, I was on another show, I've been on many of them,
08:51where they're quoting fake news NBC.
08:54I mean, these are polls that predicted Donald Trump would lose to Joe Biden.
08:59So you have to be very skeptical of the mainstream.
09:02With due regard, Mr. Ambassador, it's not just one poll.
09:05A series of polls have shown that the American president is seen to have mishandled that this was a war
09:10that was completely unnecessary.
09:12And this was a war he was pushed into by Benjamin Netanyahu, who incidentally continues to prosecute his own war
09:18in Lebanon,
09:19which again raises a question mark over the peace deal.
09:22Fake news, baby.
09:24Fake news.
09:25And that's what I'm telling you.
09:26President Trump has known Bibi Netanyahu for years.
09:29I worked for President Trump.
09:31He's a friend of mine.
09:32I've met Bibi Netanyahu.
09:33Bibi Netanyahu will MAGA, make Israel great again.
09:37President Trump will MAGA, make America great again.
09:40And your great prime minister Modi will do MAGA as well, make Iran great, make India great again.
09:47President Trump will do what's in the best interest of America.
09:49And I have to say, Chris gave you some very smart, very insightful, very objective military opinions on what's going
09:57on there.
09:58He was direct, Chris was smart, you're lucky to have him on your show, and I agree with him 110%.
10:04We have a gun against their head.
10:06President Trump has executed this incredibly well, and there are unanswered questions.
10:11And the reason why there's unanswered questions, because President Trump feels comfortable that he has enough military leverage to execute
10:19this deal.
10:20And the beneficiary will not only be America, the beneficiary will not only be Israel, it'll be the great country
10:25of India.
10:26You watch, India is going to emerge out of this stronger and better, and the proof is $74 right now
10:33for oil per barrel.
10:35And Modi will be getting together with President Trump.
10:38India will win on this, America will win on this, and 91 million Iranian people will win on this as
10:45well.
10:45It's a peace deal.
10:46Not only P-E-A-C-E, it's P-I-E-C-E.
10:51It's a peace deal with a gun against the head of the Iranian people, and it's going to work, it's
10:56going to be successful, it's going to benefit society dramatically if we continue that military pressure like your great panelist
11:03suggested.
11:05Chris, in a sense though, while Ambassador seems to suggest it's a win-win, presumably we've got to press the
11:11pause button for 60 days.
11:12We will know the reality in 60 days.
11:15That's when we will know which side has made what concessions and what has really changed on the ground.
11:20Whether it's the Strait of Hormuz, whether it's how the assets that are defrozen are used, whether it is Iran's
11:27nuclear program.
11:28In a sense, this deal seems to be putting all the contentious issues for a future date.
11:34So we will really know the impact of this deal only after 60 days.
11:39Will you raise perhaps what's the most important point?
11:41And the strength of this deal is it really takes away Iran's apparent or ostensible leverage, which is this idea
11:47of using time as a weapon of war.
11:49The Iranians have sought to extend this and possibly float the idea of peace, but then continue with violence to
11:57help create or generate political disagreement within the U.S.
12:01That's been the strategy.
12:02The strength of this deal and the leadership of the president has ended that possibility for the Iranians to use
12:08time as a weapon of war.
12:09And I'll return to my essential paradox.
12:12And this has been longstanding.
12:13It relates to strategic deterrence in terms of pure philosophy, the prospect of force to keep the peace.
12:20And the strength of this president and of this deal is we're dealing with a very strong leader who in
12:25the past has created very clear consequences for disagreement and for noncompliance.
12:31The past Iranian deal was essentially useless to a large degree.
12:35One of the things the president said when he was campaigning is the Iranians haven't been the threat that they
12:40were in the past.
12:41And that the, well, excuse me, you said that the Iranians...
12:44What's different?
12:45How has this changed?
12:46What has really changed?
12:47I ask you what has again changed between February and June for us to be optimistic that this deal will
12:54be a lasting one.
12:55There's no military.
12:56There's no supreme leader.
12:56Come on.
12:57Chris is 100% right.
12:58There's no supreme leader.
13:00He's gone.
13:01There's no navy.
13:02It's gone.
13:02There's no air force.
13:03It's gone.
13:04The Strait of Hormuz actually, based on the price of oil, has been open more or less for the last
13:09two weeks.
13:10I mean, come on.
13:11It's a whole different deal, like Chris is pointing out to you.
13:14And it's a different world.
13:16And you know something?
13:16It's not only win-win-win.
13:17So, you know, I'm just flashing on the screen, Ambassador.
13:21Vice President Vance has said the sanctions will be lifted on Iran.
13:26I mean, it seems now they get the defreezing of assets.
13:29They get sanctions.
13:30They get $300 billion.
13:31And you're telling me that America has Iran on its knees?
13:35Absolutely.
13:36And by the way, look at Japan.
13:39Look at Germany.
13:40Come on.
13:40They're in the G7.
13:42This is what you do.
13:43You defeat your opposition.
13:44You defeat your opponent.
13:46And then you find ways to elevate them and elevate their people.
13:49And I think you really have to listen to Chris's point.
13:52He's spot on.
13:53We have military strength.
13:55And we've never had a leader like Donald Trump to hold them accountable.
13:58And that's what's going on.
14:00Okay.
14:01Interesting.
14:01Chris, you want to find a quick final word?
14:03Are you optimistic that this deal will last?
14:06Or do you fear, given the acute mistrust on both sides, that we could be facing a difficult situation a
14:13month or two down the line?
14:14A quick answer.
14:16I think there's an ambiguity here because the Iranian regime simply cannot be trusted.
14:20At the same time, the leadership here and the prospect of force is extremely strong.
14:24And there have been massive paradigm-changing achievements.
14:27Number one, the strait is open.
14:29The price is already dropping.
14:30But also, the nuclear ambitions have been removed.
14:34That needs to be enforced.
14:36And we have a military that can enforce that with the precision firepower of the Air Force, fifth generation, and,
14:42of course, warships with Tomahawk missiles.
14:45Should that be necessary, the idea is to avoid that.
14:48But Iran needs to recognize and clearly seems to understand that there will be consequences for noncompliance.
14:55The removal of nuclear capability is paradigm-changing.
14:59That potentially keeps the entire world safe.
15:01And this leader has put that into effect.
15:04We'll wait and see.
15:05I think at the moment, we'll wait and see how the critical negotiations go over the next 60 days.
15:12But good to have two perspectives, two individuals who are backing Donald Trump over the last few months.
15:19We've had several more critical voices from the United States.
15:22But that's what we do.
15:23We bring you a diversity of opinion.
15:26I appreciate my guests, Ambassador Gunter, Chris Osborne, for joining me here on the show tonight.
15:30Thank you very much.
15:32My take.
15:33Has Donald Trump surrendered to Iran?
15:35Arvind Singh Walia writes,
15:37Trump realizes that unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened,
15:40U.S. standing as the sole superpower will lose its potency.
15:43So at the risk of biting the bullet and swallowing his pride,
15:46he has agreed to allow Iran to be paid war reparations and unfreeze its assets.
15:50Soman Mohanty writes,
15:51Trump dismantled the old leadership, handed the new regime an ultimatum disguised as a deal.
15:57Iran complies or Washington snaps the trap shut.
15:59But Milan writes,
16:01this time Iran will go longer and get a huge amount of benefits from the U.S.
16:04But alarming for Israel and Lebanon,
16:06for some time the U.S. may be isolated from Israel.
16:09And Harish Achantanani writes,
16:11with 2026 midterms looming,
16:13Trump isn't risking his position on another prolonged conflict.
16:17The U.S.-Iran MOU gives quick de-escalation,
16:19reopens Hormuz and oil flows stability,
16:22smart politics over endless war.
16:24Iran gets breathing room,
16:25America gets a win narrative.
16:28Interesting perspectives.
16:29Remember,
16:30you can send in your messages every day on the news today.
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