- 18 minutes ago
In another massive escalation in West Asia war, President Donald Trump said bigger and more powerful bombings tonight against Iran and threatened to take over its oil hub, Kharg Island, like he did in Venezuela.
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00:00Good evening, hello and welcome. You're with the news today, your primetime destination news,
00:04newsmakers, talking points, news without the noise. This Thursday night, our big talking point,
00:09are America and Iran heading back to war with each other? West Asia war, what are India's
00:16options as Indian sailors are getting caught in the crossfire? And the impact on the global and
00:22Indian economy of an escalating conflict once again, Raghuram Rajan is among my special guests
00:28tonight. But first, as always, it's time for the nine headlines at nine. A third ship with Indian
00:35crew is struck in Hormuz by U.S. forces. America says empty Jalveer targeted for flouting blockade.
00:44Three Indians have been killed already in an attack on empty Cetivello, another ship.
00:48India launches protests with U.S. charge the affairs. Another massive escalation in the West
00:56Asia war. Donald Trump says bigger and powerful bombings tonight threatens to take over Iranian
01:02oil hub, Khark Island, like he did in Venezuela.
01:09A big ethanol pushed by the government amidst the energy crisis. Center scraps excise duty on 22 to 30%
01:16and ethanol blended petrol. Move to promote government says clean transportation, enhance energy security.
01:26Mamata Banerjee loyalist Kalyan Banerjee gives her an ultimatum to choose between party or her nephew,
01:32Abhishek Banerjee. Another TMC, Rajasaba MP, Prakash Barak, resigns from the party.
01:41After relief from the Calcutta High Court, Abhishek Banerjee appears before CID in an alleged signature
01:47forgery case. High Court ordered probing agency to not take coercive action against the TMC leader
01:54for three weeks. All three BJP Rajasaba candidates elected unopposed in Madhya Pradesh after Congress
02:04candidate. Meenakshi Natarajan's demand for a reconsideration of a nomination is met with
02:10silence by the election commission. Rahul Gandhi calls it an example of seat chori and a murder
02:16of democracy.
02:21Ki Niti Aayog meeting held in Delhi today. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Vijay requests the centre to
02:27release pending funds without forcing a national education policy and three language formula.
02:32Vijay personally meets Prime Minister for the second time in two weeks.
02:39Shocking murder in broad daylight caught on cam. Gym owner shot dead in Haryana's Haasee after
02:45assailants pump around 10 bullets into him within seconds. Vishnoyi gang claims responsibility for it.
02:53And the ultimate football extravaganza kicks off in the United States as North America hosts the
03:00FIFA World Cup. Later tonight, South Africa to face host Mexico in the opening game.
03:21But let's turn to the big breaking news at the moment where the situation in West Asia has once
03:26again worsened. And this time, India is squarely caught in the crossfire because another vessel
03:32with Indian seamen on board has been targeted. Remember, three Indian sailors were killed in a
03:39U.S. operation targeting the tanker empty setter below only yesterday. That's the there have been
03:45three attacks of the coast of Oman in the last three days involving Indian seamen. The United States
03:53has attacked those three vessels. All 20 Indian members have been rescued in today's attack by the
04:02Oman Navy. This is the vessel M.T. Jalveer, which came under U.S. attack today. The deaths of the
04:10three
04:10Indian sailors have triggered a diplomatic response with India summoning the U.S. Sharadi affair in New Delhi,
04:17lodging a protest over the repeated attacks on vessels carrying Indian crew. That happened last night.
04:22But the tensions between Washington and Tehran escalating now in a post on True Social. U.S.
04:30President Donald Trump has warned that the U.S. will hit Iran very hard tonight, even threatening to
04:35take control of Iran's key oil export hub, Khark Island. I'm joined at the moment by Shivani Sharma.
04:41Shivani, you cover defense, three attacks in three days. Indian crew on board in all those vessels.
04:47How is the Indian government planning to respond, if at all? Do they have any options?
04:53Rajdeep, this is really unfortunate that in Gulf of Oman for 72 hours, now three vessels have been
05:00attacked and 65 Indian seafarers have been rescued. Three are dead. And India says in the statement that
05:07it has condemned the attack. It has taken the issue with the U.S. diplomat in India. It is looking
05:13into the
05:13matter. It is in conversation with the stakeholders. But certainly a big question is how India is going
05:20to respond to this particular situation where we see that more than 662 seafarers are still stuck on
05:28the Indian flagged vessels in this area on the west and the east of Strait of Hormuz. And if we
05:34talk
05:34about the foreign flagged vessels, there are about 18,000 Indian seafarers working in these vessels in
05:40this region. So certainly a big question out there, Rajdeep, how India is preparing, how it will counter
05:46these kind of attacks that are coming in almost now every day for the last three days. And three Indians
05:51have lost their lives. Now the families are awaiting the bodies of their loved ones. They want the bodies
05:57now. The bigger question is that apart from responding, condemning, what's the plan for Indian authorities?
06:08Okay, Shivani Sharma, clearly there is uncertainty that's growing up and there is no clarity on how India
06:14really can respond. Appreciate you joining me on our big story breaking this evening.
06:23To our top focus today, three attacks in three days, three Indian sailors dead and growing fears over
06:31the safety of commercial shipping in West Asia as the war threatens to escalate once again. Indian
06:39linked vessels increasingly getting caught in the crossfire of the fallout of the US-Iran
06:45confrontation, prompting a strong response from New Delhi diplomatically. But is that response too
06:53little, too late? What's happening on the ground? Will India send a tougher response to America?
07:01That's our talking point. But first take a look at our report.
07:06Three ships attacked in three days, all carrying Indian sailors. India linked vessels are increasingly
07:13finding themselves in the crossfire of a widening maritime security crisis across West Asia.
07:20Three Indian sailors have been killed in a US military operation to haul the tanker off the coast of
07:26Oman. The three Indian seafarers went missing following the attack on the Palau flag tanker M.T.
07:33Cetebello and are now confirmed dead. The other 21 of the 24 crew members on board have been rescued.
07:40The deceased sailors have been identified as Aditya Sharma, Shivanan Chaurasya and Patnala Suresh.
07:52The U.S.A. Shivanan Chaurasya and Patalas Sankar Chaurasya and Patalas Sankar Chaurasya
07:53have been killed in a few weeks. We are now on the mission of the U.S.S. Navy.
08:00The three of the crew members are missing in the U.S.A. Shivanan Chaurasya.
08:03The three of the crew members are missing in the U.S.S. Army. We are trying to
08:05make sure that local authorities, administration or our members of the parliament,
08:24The MT Cetebello is only one of the many vessels attacked as part of Washington's moves to
08:30enforce its blockade on Iran-linked shipping.
08:34On Monday, US forces hit MT Marivex, also a Palau-flagged oil tanker, with Indian
08:40crew in the Gulf of Oman.
08:42All 24 Indian seafarers were rescued.
08:45Then, the attack on MT Cetebello saw the first deaths reported since the blockade began
08:50on April 13th.
08:51And soon after the confirmed deaths, another India-linked vessel, MT Jalvir, has been targeted
08:57off the coast of Oman.
08:59It had 20 Indian crew members on board and they have all been confirmed safe.
09:12The external affairs ministry has summoned the US-charged D affairs in condemnation of
09:18the repeated incidents and urged an end to the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy.
09:24We condemned the attack on a ship off the coast of Oman, in which, unfortunately, we lost
09:31three Indian nationals.
09:32We had summoned the US-CDA here to register a strong protest.
09:38These attacks must cease and end.
09:41And we also call for dialogue and diplomacy so that we can have an early return to peace
09:47and stability in the region.
09:49Amid escalating tensions in West Asia, the attacks have intensified questions over maritime
09:54security in the region and the growing risk on commercial shipping.
09:58With Shivani Sharma, Bureau Report, India Today.
10:04Okay, so let's raise the first big questions on our talking point.
10:08Are America and Iran back at war?
10:10What are India's options now, given the fact that our sailors have lost their lives?
10:15How should the government handle Donald Trump?
10:18Do we need to send a strong message to him?
10:20And what next in the West Asia war?
10:22Two special guests joining us.
10:24Major Mike Lyons joins me from the United States.
10:27US Army Major and Military Analyst from New York City.
10:30And Casey Singh, former ambassador, is also with us.
10:34Appreciate both of you joining us.
10:36Major Lyons makes sense of what we've heard from Donald Trump today.
10:40He's saying he's going to bomb Iran tonight.
10:42He's even threatening to take Khark Island and destroy Iran's oil economy.
10:48All of this, while allegedly negotiations are on for a truce, a ceasefire is supposedly in place.
10:55Can ceasefire and bombings coexist?
10:58Well, as the President said, this was the most violated ceasefire in the history of all ceasefires.
11:04And in order to restore some level of deterrence, given the fact that the Iranians downed an American Apache helicopter,
11:10the President has to do something.
11:12And I think it's smart.
11:14I think now is the time to turn on what I'll call a dimmer switch and not a sledgehammer.
11:18There's no reason to go back to an epic fury-type operation of 900 to 1,000 sorties a day
11:24and a very large air campaign.
11:26However, there are military targets and there are targets inside of Iran that would put a lot of pressure on
11:32the IRGC,
11:33take away their revenue capability.
11:34As mentioned, Khark Island is one of them.
11:36If the President can do something to take out the capability of Khark Island,
11:40I think it would put tremendous pressure on the Iranians to come back to the negotiation table,
11:44which is what the President wants to do.
11:50But where does it leave the ceasefire of April 8th?
11:53I mean, the ceasefire therefore seems in tatters.
11:55We are seemingly back into escalating hostilities.
12:00I don't disagree.
12:01I don't think that that's something that the President, again, we've got a military would call this a siege.
12:08Right now, the Iranians are surrounded.
12:09They're blockaded.
12:10They really can't do anything.
12:12And so from a military perspective, if we start to take out certain capability there
12:18and erode their ability, again, to generate revenue, that might get them back to the peace table.
12:24The Iranians have tried to tie this to Hezbollah.
12:26They've tried to tie it to a lot of different things.
12:28Right now, Donald Trump's out of patience.
12:30And so because of that, you're going to see the military increase there.
12:33Think of it as a dimmer switch, though.
12:34It's not going to be a sledgehammer.
12:36You won't see large-scale attacks, but you'll see very precise military-related targets
12:41and infrastructure in order to keep them from generating revenue.
12:48Of course, the worry, K.C. Singh, is that, as you're hearing from Major Lyons, that this
12:53is the U.S. president now using force in a way to get Iran back, he says, to the negotiating
12:59table.
12:59But in the process, India is getting caught in the crossfire.
13:02India, three attacks in three days, three Indian sailors dead.
13:06India has summoned a senior U.S. diplomat.
13:09But we really haven't been able to send a strong enough message to Donald Trump that,
13:13you know, countries like India are going to get caught in the crossfire if this conflict
13:18keeps escalating.
13:21Yes, I think it's been very clear that India is really in the UAE, Israel, U.S. corner
13:27in this.
13:28And that's why the only country Prime Minister has recently visited is the UAE.
13:33So, you know, that neutrality is no longer there.
13:37And I don't think the government's trying to hide it.
13:40Now, the question is, when you're caught in the middle, but we are also probably getting
13:45oil from Iran or from other places.
13:49And that's where then when you're in the middle of a crossfire, you get caught in it.
13:55But there is a reluctance to position ourselves in a more neutral position.
14:00But even calling in the CDA, I think it's a step forward to not think the government has
14:10changed his basic stance of not offending Trump, not taking him on, essentially turning your
14:17face the other way and sending silent messages using their ambassador.
14:23Defiance has not been there.
14:25And of course, we are not, we can't defy them like China because the Chinese are...
14:29But what can we do?
14:30But Ambassador Singh, what can we do beyond summoning a US diplomat?
14:38What can we do to send a stronger message to Donald Trump?
14:44Well, what you can do is he's not stopped imposing tariffs.
14:48He's now got, you know, compulsory that we are using enforced labor and therefore another
14:55set of tariffs is coming.
14:56Now you have to make up your mind.
14:58And we keep saying the trade deal is about to come and it keeps going into the background.
15:03I think we have to take a stand on this.
15:05At some stage, we have to see what is a profit loss of what we are doing, doing a deal
15:11with
15:11them.
15:12But then remember, in America itself, the inflation has gone up to 4%.
15:16President Trump is under a lot of pressure domestically.
15:19And for the first time, polls which have been done in America indicate that there is more
15:24support for the Palestinians than for Israel.
15:27It's never happened in American history.
15:30So there is, there's a shift in public opinion.
15:32And the November election is just four months away.
15:35So there should be absolutely, we have to stop being desperate to do a deal with the Americans.
15:40Because you remember last time we did an interim deal and then the U.S. Supreme Court struck
15:45those tariffs down.
15:47Yes.
15:47So you have to realize that, you know, doing a deal in a hurry is not going to help because
15:52things are not normal within America itself.
15:59You know, Major Lyons, the question therefore that arises from this, given that the public
16:04opinion is now firmly against the war, they do not want this war to be prolonged.
16:09Is Donald Trump, who said this war would end in a few days, now we've gone well over
16:14a hundred days.
16:15Is he under growing pressure to end the war?
16:18Now the president is talking about taking over Khark Island of escalating bomb, escalation
16:23in bombings.
16:24I mean, it only seems that the war is going to get further prolonged well into possibly
16:29the next month or so at the very least.
16:32Yeah, I think the president is very steeled about his objective to make sure the Iranians
16:37do not have nuclear weapons.
16:39He's not going to settle for a deal that looked anything like the Obama deal, the JCPOA back
16:44from 2015.
16:45I don't think he cares about the polls.
16:47I don't think he is very much forward on getting some kind of visual sign of victory.
16:52Taking Khark Island would be that.
16:53If we landed U.S. troops inside of Khark Island and shut down their capability to generate
16:59petro oil and things that go from there, I think that would be that sign of victory.
17:03This is a situation where America thinks it's on the right side.
17:08Iran has been at war with the United States for 47 years.
17:10It is time to figure this out and settle it right now.
17:13I don't think he cares that people don't think the war is popular or not.
17:16I think he cares it's the right thing to do.
17:22But it's not going to be easy, surely, to take over Khark Island.
17:25And even if they do, the Iranians are not just going to simply sit back and watch it
17:30happening.
17:30They could once again try and escalate the entire locus of the conflict, drag in other
17:34countries into the conflict.
17:35They're already targeting.
17:37Once again, we've seen drones being hit at U.S. bases across the Gulf.
17:44And if they do, then they'll see an escalation from the United States.
17:47I don't think the original conflict was escalation management to begin with.
17:51I think we put a very significant hit on them during Epic Fury, and we backed off in order
17:58to maintain an infrastructure so they could have some kind of escape.
18:03It's not the United States' interest to totally destroy Iran.
18:05It's not in our interest to do that.
18:07It's not in the world's interest.
18:08We have to give them some kind of bridge in order for them so they could save face and
18:12have some concession.
18:14But if they're not going to take the concession, then the Trump administration is going to keep
18:17going until we figure out what that pressure point is.
18:20If that pressure point's Khark Island, it's Khark Island.
18:23The president says that they want to make a deal right now, but if the IRGC, who controls
18:27Khark Island, doesn't want to make a deal, well, the United States is going to do what
18:30it can to put the pressure on the IRGC.
18:36Given what you're hearing, therefore, KC Singh, do you fear the Straits of Hormuz closed, the
18:42blockade of Iran continuing?
18:43Are we in for a prolonged conflict?
18:46And that is only bad news if this conflict gets prolonged.
18:49Is that now increasingly likely, according to you also?
18:54Look, with Trump, you don't know what is likely, what is unlikely.
18:57He has said we'll hit them very hard, but he'll also keep talking.
19:00He wants to bring them to the table.
19:02But I think he still not understood Iran, because the Iranians put up with all the firing
19:07and the rockets and air attacks that Iran and U.S. inflicted on Iran, and still Iran
19:15was able to hit back.
19:16They were firing missiles.
19:18So what they have said is, if you come to Khark, if you put the boots on the ground,
19:23we will fight them, and then we will spread the battle all across the region.
19:28Which means you take out their oil facility, they'll take out all the oil facilities in
19:34the GCC and beyond.
19:36And which will then create chaos in terms of global oil prices or whatever oil is flowing
19:41from Saudi Arabia through the Red Sea and all, even that would stop.
19:44So this, I think that President Trump understands.
19:48He does not want that kind of escalation, where already the price rise in America, you don't
19:55want further price rise that will be wiped out in the November elections.
19:59He may say he doesn't care, but his party cares.
20:02Right.
20:03And you know, in the Senate and the Congress, they're already congressmen.
20:07Republicans say certain things have to be done.
20:10And then you've got the Epstein files.
20:12Is he doing it because the Epstein files are again re-emerging?
20:16And there's a danger that all of them will come out.
20:19And I think that always, that seems to be one of the factors in his mind somewhere.
20:29I'm going to leave it there.
20:30Clearly, these are worrying times and worrying signals once again coming from the conflict
20:35zone in West Asia.
20:37But to shed more light on it, I appreciate Major Lyons and Casey Singh for joining me on
20:43the show tonight.
20:44Thank you very much.
20:47Now, as we all know, the war in West Asia has shaken the global economy and India.
20:52And the fear of war clouds returning has sent jitters.
20:56As I said, handling the economy is now possibly the biggest challenge facing the Narendra Modi
21:03government in the next one year.
21:05And there are many worrying signs that we've seen.
21:08Remember, the rupee recently hit 96 to the dollar.
21:12It's among the worst performing currencies right now.
21:15Crude oil prices have risen and the government has increased domestic fuel prices multiple times.
21:22Forex reserves have fallen from $728 billion on February 27th to now $682 billion on June 5th.
21:33Wholesale inflation is at a three and a half year high of 8.3%.
21:38Food inflation is at 7.1%.
21:41Fertilizer subsidy is expected to rise from the allocated 1.71 lakh crore to 2.5 lakh crore rupees.
21:50These are the worrying signals.
21:52I'm now joined by a special guest who I spoke to earlier.
21:55One of the world's leading voices on the economy.
21:58Listen in to Raghuram Rajan.
22:07So in the backdrop of the uncertain global climate created by the conflict in West Asia,
22:12the focus remains on the Indian and global economy.
22:17What lies ahead?
22:19What are the headwinds that we will now face?
22:21Joining me now is one of the world's most distinguished economists,
22:25former Reserve Bank of India Governor, Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth,
22:29and also has been with the IMF in the past.
22:32Dr. Raghuram Rajan, good to have you as always on the show.
22:36Thank you very much for joining me.
22:39I recall speaking to Dr. Rajan in March, soon after the conflict broke out in West Asia,
22:45and then you had said if this conflict continues into the summer and beyond,
22:50then the world could be heading for a very grave situation.
22:53We are now in the month of June, and there is no end yet to the conflict.
22:58How do you see therefore all of this playing out in terms of the global economy
23:04and India's economic challenges?
23:08Certainly what has happened is that this conflict has lasted way beyond what the,
23:16you know, the initiators Israel and America thought would happen.
23:21And negotiations are also underway.
23:25I think there is some hope that an agreement will be reached.
23:34The hope is always in the next week, but every week we are disappointed.
23:38So it clearly is harder.
23:41There are some issues which it's very hard to bring the two parties together.
23:47Of course, this is not even talking about the nuclear issues,
23:50which early science suggested will be postponed into the future.
23:55The world has actually managed better than one expected in the beginning.
24:02And that's because there have been all manner of adjustments.
24:06First, we have run down the buffers that existed, both the commercial buffers,
24:12as well as the strategic buffers of oil and other forms of fuel.
24:19So that's one source of adjustment.
24:21Another has been kinds of substitution.
24:25Countries have moved towards using more coal.
24:28China is an example.
24:30We also have seen that in China, cars are not using gasoline anymore.
24:37They're using electricity.
24:40Of course, China has a big EV population, and that has taken some of the brunt off.
24:45In fact, if you look at oil production also, that has increased substantially in the United States,
24:52while oil consumption by China has fallen in part because they're not filling their strategic reserves anymore,
25:01and a number of industries have moved away from high-priced oil to much lower-priced coal that they have.
25:08And I think such substitutions are taking place across the world.
25:11What is true is this room for maneuver is reducing.
25:17Ultimately, the fact that, you know, around 10 percent of world energy is shut out
25:24will play a part in slowing economies down because the buffers will run out.
25:30When the buffers run out is everybody's big question.
25:34Nobody quite knows when.
25:35But if we see this kind of impasse by the end of summer, almost surely we're looking at much lower
25:43growth in the world economy than we anticipated initially,
25:47partly because of the effects of oil shortages.
25:50And that, too, it will, you know, affect India for a similar reason.
25:59Let's come to India for a moment because you mentioned oil shortages and the energy crisis.
26:04We're already slowly feeling the heat.
26:06There have been half a dozen hikes of fuel prices at different times in just the last month alone.
26:13And when you then speak to governments, policymakers, they say, look, we are better off than the rest of the
26:18world.
26:19Compare the hike in fuel prices in India to what the hike in fuel prices have been in parts of
26:25the Western world or indeed in our neighborhood.
26:27Do you go along with that argument?
26:29Is that a good enough argument to make that, look, we are no different to the rest of the world.
26:33In fact, we are better off, they say, than the rest of the world, even though we are a heavily
26:37oil-import-dependent economy?
26:42Well, the reason the government can say that it hasn't passed through is because it's taking the hit on the
26:49fiscal.
26:50There is a limit to how much hit you can take on the fiscal without concerns of serious long-term
26:57damage being done via, for example,
27:00the higher debt that has to be issued, the need to finance that debt, the interest payments that will go
27:07out and so on.
27:08Remember, we are trying to bring down the debt.
27:11You know, we have a target.
27:13We're also trying to bring down the fiscal deficit.
27:16There is some leeway.
27:18The government is using that.
27:19But this is not a pleasant state of affairs where you're trying to cushion the blow from higher oil prices
27:25by either forcing the oil marketing companies to take it on their books,
27:31which ultimately is a hit to entities that are partly in the private sector, which you shouldn't be doing,
27:36and longer-term taking it on the government's sort of budget and balance sheet, which effectively is postponing the problem
27:45to future generations of Indians.
27:47We have so many needs for, you know, government spending, including schools, healthcare, and so on.
27:55And, you know, subsidizing especially richer households who consume more oil by keeping the prices low is not the most
28:04sensible government policy if this continues into the medium term.
28:11So what would you suggest, given as you're saying that there is pressure on the fiscal, that this cannot be
28:16sustainable for an extended period,
28:18and there is, as I said, no clear sign of when the state of Hormuz will open, when those oil
28:24flows will be back to what they were pre-war.
28:27What is the solution? Particularly, let's look at the energy crisis first. The government keeps talking about the fact that
28:35we are diversifying our basket,
28:37looking for other countries from which we can import oil. What is it that we really need to do in
28:42the short term over the next few months?
28:44In the short term, almost surely we have to pass it on. Maybe not in one jhatka, but in steady
28:52sort of increases in the prices of all manner of energy,
28:59including gas and oil, petroleum, as well as diesel. So this has to be a steady process. And, you know,
29:08the longer it lasts,
29:09the more adjustment you will have made. You can't sort of wait and hope and pray that the straight opens
29:16up,
29:16because it may take longer than you think, given that on both sides of the bargaining table,
29:22you have some very, very strong and determined interests who may not give in that easily.
29:28So I would say a steady sort of process of raising the price to make it match the market eventually
29:36is what is important,
29:38because part of the adjustment to higher oil prices is lower demand. And it is important that if these prices
29:48stay higher,
29:48our industry, our restaurants, as well as our people, especially the richer ones who consume more of the stuff, adjust.
29:57Now, that doesn't mean that you can't find ways to help those at the bottom of the pyramid. You could
30:04still subsidize gas cylinders, for example, for those.
30:08But I would say, by and large, you know, any kind of subsidy should be very targeted at this point.
30:14And we have methods of doing that targeting, but pass on the prices more generally.
30:24Let's look at some of the headline numbers, Dr. Rajan.
30:27The figures that came out just a few days ago showed the Indian economy showing some resilience in FY 2026
30:35with 7.7 percent GDP growth.
30:38The government said, look, this is a sign that the economy is far more resilient than many believe.
30:43The RBI, though, has cut its financial year 27 growth forecast to 6.6 percent while raising CPI inflation consumer
30:52price index inflation to 5.1 percent against earlier projections of 4.6 percent.
30:59So are we going to see possibly the concern over inflation and the impact that could then have on purchasing
31:07power of of consumers?
31:10That is the real challenge, isn't it? Because the Modi government has been very successful, reasonably successful over inflation in
31:16the past.
31:17But they now could face a fresh challenge. Is that, according to you, going to be one of the big
31:21challenges?
31:22How do you keep inflation under control?
31:25It will be a challenge, for sure, because inflation comes in through higher oil prices and then feeds through to
31:32almost everything else in the economy.
31:34What the government and the RBI will be watching is how much this is a one-time effect with higher
31:42oil prices feeding into prices of goods and services.
31:45As you said, given that the prices haven't been passed through so far, it's not surprising that inflation is a
31:52little calmer than it would be.
31:54But eventually, as you pass through, it is going to show up.
31:57The real question for the Reserve Bank will be if these kinds of higher inflation, one-time higher inflation, starts
32:08prompting more of an inflationary spiral, that people start expecting higher inflation, and then it gets more out of control.
32:16Right now, projections are still that inflation will stay within the RBI's band, and it can, you know, be a
32:25little calmer about raising interest rates and slowing the economy while that is the case.
32:31But it may not last forever, especially if this war lasts longer and prices move.
32:38Right now, today's oil price is $93 a barrel.
32:41This, if it goes to actually slow down demand, would be much higher.
32:46You know, some people say maybe $150 to $200.
32:50That is anybody's guess, but if it gets to those levels, then you're seeing both prices go up, but also
32:58expectations of prices going up go up.
33:00And that is the killer as far as inflation goes.
33:03When people sort of start billing, inflation will be higher and make inflation actually higher because they themselves will demand
33:12higher wages.
33:13Businesses will both pass through higher prices.
33:16Now, the other issue, and this may seem strange given the high GDP numbers, is that there does seem to
33:24be, you know, some spare capacity in the economy.
33:28I can't find other ways of explaining why investment by corporations is so tepid.
33:35If investment is so tepid and there is some spare capacity, it may well be that corporations themselves don't raise
33:43prices that quickly.
33:45So there may be another margin there for us, for India, to go slow on raising interest rates.
33:52That said, you know, either one or the other has to be a little iffy.
33:58Either the GDP numbers don't reflect the true state of the economy, or corporations for some reason are overly pessimistic
34:06and are not investing.
34:08It's not clear how you can have an economy growing north of 7%, as the GDP numbers say, and investment,
34:15a corporate investment really so tepid.
34:21Have you tried to, what is your view of that?
34:24As I said, the headline numbers showing the economy growing at 7.7%, slowing down, yes.
34:30And yet private investment not picking up.
34:33What could be the reason?
34:34Arvind Subramaniam the other day seemed to suggest that there is an element of fear factor that could exist or
34:40a sense that cronyism has grown in the economy and hence many others are not investing.
34:45The MSMEs, the smaller and micro enterprises have taken a bit of a hit, is another view.
34:50What's your view?
34:51Why is it that investment is not picking up?
34:54If the headline numbers show 7.7%, why is private investment in your view still not picking up?
35:01I don't understand it.
35:02Or are the GDP numbers falsified?
35:05Look, I think if it was growing at this rate, you would definitely expect investment to be higher.
35:14You know, this was a puzzle 10 years ago.
35:17It still is a puzzle today.
35:18Why corporate investment hasn't taken off?
35:20And so, I mean, the only answer with the kind of growth we've seen over the last 10 years in
35:27the official numbers is that perhaps we are growing less strongly than those numbers suggest.
35:34But, you know, again, I don't know where the discrepancy is.
35:39Because, you know, Arvind Subramaniam, as you know, has pointed to a number of data points where growth is less
35:47than it should be, even while we are seeing very strong GDP growth.
35:53But I cannot fathom why corporate investment is not picking up.
35:59Because with this kind of growth, you reach capacity, you know, sooner.
36:04And one of the things you see in the capacity numbers that RBI puts out…
36:08So do you trust the growth numbers?
36:12You know, I don't…
36:13Do you trust the growth numbers?
36:14Sorry to intervene.
36:15Do you trust the growth numbers?
36:16Let me put it this way, that something is off.
36:21And I have to believe that, you know, you can't just attribute the lack of investment to fear.
36:30Our industrialists are fairly money-minded also.
36:33If they saw the opportunity in investing, they would.
36:37The fact that they're not investing suggests that, you know, they're not seeing the kind of demand that would be
36:43consistent with these growth numbers, which suggests the growth numbers aren't fully reflective of what the economy is doing.
36:51Can I…
36:54Can I move to an issue which, of course, you've written about in the past, the rupee?
36:59When we last spoke in March, it was about 93.4 to the dollar.
37:03It's gone up to 95.6.
37:06You also had, you know, the depreciation of the rupee.
37:09Do you believe that, as one member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council says there's nothing wrong if the
37:16rupee falls further, even goes, you know, above 100 to the dollar?
37:21Do you believe that there will come a time when that will stretch us, particularly on our forex reserves?
37:27Or do you believe it's okay to have a free fall?
37:29Yeah.
37:30Steady adjustment is okay.
37:32A free fall is not.
37:33So, you know, with our current account deficit larger, but more important, the fact that capital is not coming into
37:41India, to the extent that we need to finance our deficit, you know, the rupee adjustment, some of it is
37:51necessary.
37:52What you don't want is a situation where the rupee falls because people think it's going to fall, and you've
37:59got a lot of investors abandoning rupee assets because they fear a further fall in the rupee.
38:06That kind of free fall can be very damaging because it can take you far beyond what the reasonable value
38:12of the rupee should be.
38:13Right.
38:13This was a situation we faced in 2013 with the taper tantrum where the rupee plunged 25, you know, a
38:22significant amount over the space of two, three months.
38:25And, you know, there was a clear case for rescuing the rupee at that point because the free fall was
38:33unwarranted, which, you know, as the rupee recovered its strength, that was certainly the case that perhaps it had been
38:42oversold.
38:44You know, one could debate whether that's a reasonable place.
38:48We are in that kind of place today.
38:50I don't think we are.
38:51But nevertheless, what is worrisome is the fact that capital inflows are not coming in to the extent India needs.
39:00With all this talk about what a wonderful economy India is, the seven point something percent growth that we saw
39:07in the year so far, it is not consistent with the kind of, you know, investment from foreigners also.
39:19FDI is down significantly.
39:21They're not bringing in money to build factories in India.
39:26And portfolio investment has, they've been selling and getting out, which is consistent with a lack of confidence in the
39:34Indian economy.
39:35Now, this may be, you know, headlines.
39:37India is not positioned well for AI, which I think is a debatable question.
39:42And second, India is not benefiting from the China plus one strategy.
39:47We're still not a manufacturing power despite all the efforts of the government.
39:51But this set aside, I think part of the problem is nobody knows what India's vision is, other than it
39:58wants to be a developed country by 2047.
40:00What are you going to emphasize?
40:02What is the economic resources, what is the economic growth going to be?
40:07How much are you going to invest in your people?
40:09None of this is particularly clear, even while we have probably the strongest, you know, government, politically speaking, in decades.
40:21What is the government trying to do?
40:23You know, what we had in the recent past is a bunch of, yeah.
40:30Go ahead.
40:33Go ahead, go ahead.
40:34No, no.
40:34Please go ahead.
40:35Because, you know, taking off from what you just said, Surjit Bhalla, former executive director at the IMF, was on
40:42my show a few weeks ago.
40:43He created a controversy by suggesting that while the Modi government was politically strong, it was at its economically weakest.
40:50And he argued that policy uncertainty, domestic structural bottlenecks were discouraging long term capital formation.
40:57And that is why there was this sharp decline in net FDI.
41:01He said inconsistent taxation, regulatory, unpredictability, compliance, burdens, retrospective disputes.
41:08So, obviously, it's not just the war, the conflict in West Asia that's obviously adding to the stress.
41:16But this is, there is a need for, as you said, a clear vision, direction and specifics to be addressed.
41:23Absolutely.
41:24So, the weaknesses in capital inflows into India predate the war.
41:30We've seen slower inflows for the last couple of years.
41:36Of course, the stock market reflects some of that.
41:38But the FDI numbers most clearly reflect.
41:41And that's consistent with the fact that Indian entrepreneurs are not investing, the point we talked about earlier.
41:48So, both foreign investors as well as Indian investors aren't putting assets on the ground.
41:53That is suggestive that they see something that is not reflected in the headline GDP growth numbers.
42:00But to the point that what does India stand for, economically speaking?
42:06I mean, this whole, you know, make in India idea, yeah, it has had some successes.
42:14We brought cell phone assembly into India.
42:17But the kind of growth that we expected, both in terms of manufacturing output growth, but also job creation,
42:24is much more tepid than India needs.
42:27I mean, you saw the Cockroach Janta Party take off, partly because we have millions of unemployed youth that we're
42:34not providing jobs for.
42:36What is the strategy to provide them jobs?
42:38And talking about 2047 is a little irrelevant.
42:43When you're not describing the pathway to 2047, what are we going to do?
42:47And to your point, you know, start first by reforming the kind of getting rid of some of the irritants
42:54that make it harder to invest.
42:56Now, what we had last week with the proposals on the, you know, attracting foreign investment are important band-aids,
43:07but they are band-aids.
43:08They are ways to, you know, bring in money, perhaps by liberalizing some of the frictions which kept the money
43:15out,
43:16but also providing a huge subsidy in terms of the foreign exchange swap that the RBI is providing.
43:22The question is, why do we still need to subsidize foreign investment if we had a strong growing economy which
43:30would attract that investment?
43:32And my worry is, yes, we'll get the money coming in, but we need to also accompany that with important
43:39reforms
43:40that actually make India a better place to do business and give people a sense of what the India narrative
43:46is.
43:46Is it going to be more services-oriented? Is it going to be high-tech manufacturing?
43:51If so, do we have the necessary inputs such as stronger engineers?
43:57I was, you know, I told you a little bit about being back at my alma mater, IIT Delhi,
44:02and it needs massive resources to be competitive with some of the universities that China is producing.
44:09Our engineers are going to compete with Chinese engineers.
44:12They were better than what China was producing in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
44:18Now I have to say China has far better universities than India has at the top.
44:24We need to understand that we risk not investing in our human capital.
44:30If we don't invest in our human capital, we risk our future.
44:34But again, what you hear about is talk about freebies to win elections.
44:39The government was trying to stay away from freebies, but now it's fully participated in that.
44:44What is its strategy for long-term Indian growth? I don't see it.
44:52Given what you've done, and you've given us a broad sweep, in conclusion, therefore, given that we are in these
44:58stress times,
44:59given that the war in the Gulf has aggravated the sense of trust, what is your economic outlook for the
45:06next six months?
45:06Is there an opportunity that you see in this crisis, or do you believe that it will get worse before
45:13it gets better?
45:15I think the pain will have to be borne. There is no two questions about it because most of our
45:21pain is imported from the Middle East.
45:24If the straits stays closed for much longer towards the end of summer, I think we will have to absorb
45:31significant pain
45:32because we import so much of oil from that direction.
45:37But I think if it causes us to, you know, experience a wake-up call that, you know, maybe all
45:44this, you know,
45:47this presentation of a wonderful economy doing so well, we need to reexamine and find out what is really going
45:56wrong.
45:57And I would say the lack of investment is a canary in the coal mine.
46:01It's telling us something is not quite right. Can we figure out how to liberalize the economy, reform it, in
46:09such a way that we can propel investment?
46:12And that would mean also many more jobs to satisfy our hungry youth, many of whom legitimately now are saying,
46:21what is going wrong?
46:22I would say that we need to create those jobs. A rethink forced by more tighter circumstances would be very
46:32welcome.
46:33And there are so many ways we can move forward. But first, we need the willingness to acknowledge that something
46:40is going wrong.
46:50Thank you very much, in a way, for giving us that what you believe is a wake-up call for
46:59the Indian economy
47:00and giving us the big picture as you see it from your vantage point.
47:04Thanks very much for joining me on the show today.
47:09You're with the news today. The crisis within the Thinamul Congress is deepening by the day.
47:14Today there was a stunning attack from senior TMC MP Kalyan Banerjee.
47:19He accused Abhishek Banerjee, the party's general secretary and Mamta Banerjee's nephew, of arrogance and even destroying the party.
47:27Even issuing a virtual ultimatum to the TMC supremo Mamta Banerjee, saying she had to choose between the party and
47:35the nephew.
47:36Amidst all this political turmoil, Abhishek Banerjee has now appeared before a CID investigation in Kolkata over an alleged signature
47:45forgery case.
47:46The big question now, will Mamta Banerjee stand by her old loyalists or her family?
47:52The TMC is split wide open.
47:56Indrajit Kundu interviewed Kalyan Banerjee. Listen in.
48:02Such an arrogant person.
48:06One must understand that for Obhishek Banerjee, the party has been destroyed today. We have lost it.
48:13Everybody is saying this.
48:15I have not said.
48:16I am in the back days of the party.
48:19I was with the Mamta Adi.
48:21I said, again I am saying, I am with Mamta Adi.
48:24But Mamta Adi has to choose whether Obhishek Banerjee, she will keep or she will keep me.
48:29That's an ultimatum.
48:30Yes.
48:31This is.
48:31I am.
48:32I leave it to her.
48:33Her wisdom.
48:35I leave it to her wisdom.
48:37This is a Dharam Sankat for Didi.
48:38It is.
48:39I leave it to her wisdom.
48:41Okay, let's turn to our Get Real India story.
48:45Somewhere in the hills of Chhattisgarh, women still walk treacherous mountain paths twice a day for just a bucket of
48:54water.
48:55Children are falling sick drinking from a stream that they have to share with animals.
49:01And for the people of Maspur, clean drinking water remains a distant promise.
49:07Sumi Rajappan has tonight's Get Real India story.
49:15As India battles an intense summer, the message is simple.
49:20Stay hydrated.
49:22But in some corners of the country, the challenge isn't staying hydrated.
49:26It's finding water.
49:28To reach Maspur village in Chhattisgarh's Kanke district, the road ends long before the village begins.
49:36On paper, Maspur does not seem very far.
49:39But distances in these mountains are measured differently.
49:43What follows is a punishing climb across rocks, steep slopes and unforgiving terrain.
49:50A journey villagers make every day.
49:53We have just started the trek of this small mountain.
49:57And it's a three kilometer, three to 3.5 kilometer long stretch and trek that we have to do.
50:03The administration regrettably couldn't do this needful measure just to give the people what they needed all these years.
50:13And in this heat wave, how they are arranging for the drinking water is somehow a story that we are
50:20going to tell.
50:20For Subey Singh Usendi, this isn't a trek.
50:24It is the only road home.
50:27The path that brings ration.
50:29The path that carries patience.
50:32What feels extraordinary to most is routine in Maspur.
50:55The electricity poles took years to reach Maspur.
51:01Electricity itself still hasn't.
51:03The poles stand across the hillside like promises waiting to be fulfilled.
51:10As evening falls, the women of Maspur begin another journey.
51:15Not for work.
51:16Not for cooking.
51:18But for water.
51:19Twice a day.
51:21Every day.
51:22We follow them to the village's only reliable source.
51:26A small pool trapped between rocks.
51:34Stagnant water lies nearby.
51:36Yet, this is what the village depends on.
51:40The birds are drinking.
51:42The birds are drinking.
51:43The birds are drinking.
51:44The birds are drinking.
51:44Everything is drinking.
51:46Mothers say children frequently fall sick after drinking this water.
51:51When the rains arrive, even this source turns muddy.
52:11The elderly women here say they have been drinking from this stream since 1975.
52:18Villagers say they have approached officials repeatedly.
52:33authorities assure health.
52:46Authorities assure health.
52:52The people of Maspur are now asking for miracles.
52:57They are asking for something basic.
52:59A glass of clean drinking water.
53:01With Sumi Rajappan, Bureau Report, India Today.
53:06Okay, let's turn to a brighter story.
53:09And it is a spectacle like no other.
53:12All eyes from today will be, or tonight, will be on the 2026 FIFA World Cup
53:17that's set to start across North America.
53:20US, Canada, Mexico all playing host.
53:23This time, 48 teams are competing for the Holy Grail of the FIFA World Cup trophy.
53:29Who will win the big trophy?
53:31Our sports team brings you a glimpse of what lies ahead.
53:56There is just no other competition in the world that enjoys the hype and passion that the FIFA World Cup
54:04does.
54:08Playing host this time are the United States, Canada and Mexico.
54:13A first in 100 years that three nations are co-hosting the FIFA World Cup.
54:22In the rich history of the sport, never had 48 teams competed.
54:27But this year's World Cup will see those many teams go head to head.
54:34The superstars of the football world have come together to serve up yet another timeless masterpiece.
54:44Doesn't matter who you are or where you come from.
54:47It's the one tournament that makes everyone's heart skip a beat.
54:55For two of the greats of the game, this one will be the final dance.
55:00A final opportunity to enrich their unforgettable legacy.
55:07Defending champions Argentina yet again look a team to watch out for.
55:13So do the team they beat in the last edition's World Cup final were now led by Kylian Mbappe.
55:22Ronaldo's Portugal are on a mission to deliver for their talisman.
55:28And then there's Spain who arguably have the most talented squad.
55:34The wait is over.
55:37The world is watching.
55:39Let the greatest show on earth begin.
55:43Sports Bureau, India Today.
55:47Okay, before we end the show tonight, just a clarification.
55:50During the interview with Honourable Justice Gautam Patel retired on 9 June 2026,
55:57a statement was made on this show referring to the threats against Justice Patel
56:01and the reported attack on his daughter in the United Kingdom.
56:05It is clarified that there is no judicial finding or allegation on record attributing responsibility
56:12for these incidents to any party in the Daudi Bora proceedings,
56:16succession proceedings and no such attribution was intended.
56:21The reference was made in the course of a discussion concerning the succession and dispute
56:26dispute and should not be understood as asserting that any particular individual,
56:32group, sect or party to the litigation was responsible for the alleged threats or the attack.
56:39We understand that Saidna Tahir Fakruddin Sahib, the appellant in the succession proceedings,
56:45has publicly condemned the threats and the reported attack.
56:49We regret any misunderstanding that may have arisen from the statement during that discussion.
56:57Okay, that's all that we could pack in on the show tonight from the entire team here.
57:01Thanks very much for watching.
57:03That was the news without the noise.
57:05Stay well, stay safe, good night Shubratri.
57:07Jai Hind, Namaskar.
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