- 2 days ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond.
Although Summer 2026 has started wetter and fresher than Spring 2026 ended, that’s not a sign for what’s to come. With more on this and a look back at recent events, bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
Although Summer 2026 has started wetter and fresher than Spring 2026 ended, that’s not a sign for what’s to come. With more on this and a look back at recent events, bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
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00:00It's nowhere near as hot as it was this time last week, but meteorological summer has started.
00:06And what does it have in store for us?
00:08Well, I'll be looking at that and a fair bit more in this week's Deep Dive.
00:12Thank you for joining me.
00:13Yes, I'm Alex Burkill, presenter and meteorologist, coming to you as we do every Tuesday from our headquarters here in
00:20Exeter.
00:20Make sure you're leaving comments and questions, you're subscribed, and hitting that like and that share button.
00:26And it makes us more able to do these kind of videos going forward.
00:30So let's dive straight in.
00:32I will talk about how summer 2026 is looking.
00:36But first, I want to look back at the huge contrast between what we have currently and what we had
00:43a week ago.
00:44So one thing, one big thing that many of us are noticing, the massive drop in temperatures.
00:50Lots of people struggled with the hot weather that we had last week.
00:53So many people are welcoming the drop, but I just wanted to look at just how much fresher, cooler it
01:00is now than it was this time last week.
01:02Some places, well, on this chart, which has just disappeared, but it's back.
01:06So many places across much of England in particular are more than nine degrees fresher than they were this time
01:14last week.
01:14In fact, some places are more than 15 degrees fresher.
01:18That's a huge drop, but not that surprising when you think just how exceptional the hot spell was last week,
01:24getting above 35 Celsius for the first time in May on record in the UK.
01:30Worth highlighting when my graphics come back that some parts of the UK, far northwest of Scotland, eastern parts of
01:37Scotland, and some far northeastern parts of England are actually a little bit warmer than they were this time last
01:42week.
01:43But for many, it is markedly fresher and quite a bit wetter as well.
01:47There's a fair amount of rain around this week, some heavy thunderstorms to watch out for as well.
01:52So why the change?
01:54Well, we talked about this a lot last week in the deep dive, in the weather studio lives.
01:58Remember, the cause of the heat was this air traveling across the Atlantic and sinking as it came towards us.
02:04And it was that sinking that led to it rising or the air warming up before it reached the UK.
02:12And then with high pressure sitting around northern Europe, the air sort of wrapped around itself and then came back
02:20towards the UK from a southerly direction.
02:22And that air, which was already warm because it had gone through that sinking process, was then warming up even
02:29further as it was sitting over the near continent, sitting across parts of the UK because of the high pressure.
02:37And, you know, at this time of year, the days were long.
02:39And so no wonder we saw a lot of heating.
02:42But it was really exceptional with just how hot it got.
02:47But things have drastically changed.
02:49Now, here I have the NAO index, so the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.
02:54And remember, the NAO looks at the contrast between the pressure with the high pressure towards the Azores and the
03:03low pressure towards Iceland.
03:04A negative NAO suggests that you have the slacker, so less of a pressure gradient and a slacker flow, higher
03:12pressure around the UK.
03:14And a positive NAO brings more of a westerly influence to us.
03:18And I've gone back a bit too far with this chart.
03:21Let's focus on May, which is this chunk.
03:23And what you can see is it was in the negative phase through the start of May and also through
03:30last week as well in this negative phase, which is why we had high pressure across us and largely settled
03:36weather.
03:36But then the beginning of the month, beginning of the season, the start of meteorological summer, we saw a big
03:41shift and it went to pretty or it's going to pretty positive, especially for the time of year.
03:48And so it's peaking in the next couple of days.
03:51And that's when we're going to see the most unsettled weather, probably.
03:56I'll come on to that probably in a few minutes time.
03:59But yes, a changeable unsettled period.
04:01We can also see the shift in our pressure pattern by looking at this chart, a Hofmoller.
04:06If you've watched our deep dives before, you may have seen one of these.
04:08We do like to show them because they tell a nice story.
04:11But if you've not seen one before, I'll try and explain it.
04:14So we're looking at the pressure at around 500 hectopascal.
04:18So a wee way up.
04:19But what we have is the UK is along this line and we're going further in time the further we
04:25go down.
04:25So we're looking into the future.
04:26This was taken from yesterday.
04:27So this is the UK for yesterday.
04:29And then we have to the west and to the east.
04:32And the orange is indicating higher pressure.
04:34So last week, high pressure across us and across near Europe, sorry, near parts of Europe, northern Europe had high
04:41pressure.
04:42But what we often see with very hot spells, heat waves, high pressure, and then that high pressure drifts away
04:50towards the east.
04:51And in doing so, remember, our winds go around in a clockwise direction around high pressure.
04:57And so our air then gets dragged in from the south more.
05:00And you often get this thundery plume, a Spanish plume, that kind of thing.
05:04That's not what we had last week.
05:06In fact, we had the high pressure drifting away towards the west and breaking down as it went.
05:12Now, we did get some convection, some severe convection, some thunderstorms.
05:17We had a couple of warnings out.
05:18But they were mostly homegrown showers that developed.
05:21They weren't this plume coming up from the south.
05:24But nonetheless, what we had was the high pressure weakening as it drifted away towards the west and then eventually
05:29breaking up.
05:30And it's that breaking up process that has allowed now for frontal systems to come in from the west.
05:35We've got this now positive NAO, which has helped strengthen the jet stream.
05:39And so we've seen a real change in our weather.
05:41Things are markedly more unsettled than they were a week ago.
05:45Temperatures are only actually around near average for the time of year.
05:48But it's actually pretty wet.
05:50So let's quickly run through what we have weather-wise.
05:53And here we have the jet stream.
05:55As I mentioned, the jet has strengthened through the last few days.
05:59And you can see the jet running close to the UK.
06:01That's quite a strong jet for early June.
06:03And so no wonder the weather's quite changeable.
06:05Let's put the rain on.
06:06And actually, I'll get rid of the jet stream for a little while.
06:09Oops, pressed the wrong button.
06:10And I'll put the jet stream back on in a second to show you something that happens towards the weekend.
06:15But for now, let's just run this through.
06:17We have a fair few showers around the UK.
06:19Low pressure nearby.
06:20Some of these showers, there's a bit of convergence around.
06:23So some of them across parts of Scotland have been pretty intense today.
06:26And then over into Wednesday, we have a weather system making its way across the country.
06:31And that's going to bring some persistent and at times heavy rain.
06:35But actually, away from the weather system, the front, that's probably where we're going to see the most impactful weather.
06:43So let's look at the UK in a bit more detail.
06:46I'm just going to move it over so I have more space.
06:48And let's go to Wednesday, middle of the day.
06:51And you can see that front, that's pushing its way, making its way northeastwards or east northeastwards.
06:56And yes, there will be some persistent rain on the front.
07:00But we're also a little concerned, or paying attention to at least, the convection, the severe showers that could develop
07:07both to the north and also behind the front.
07:10So across parts of Scotland, can I put pressure on?
07:13I think I can.
07:14Yeah, yeah.
07:16Towards the north of Scotland, we actually have quite a slack flow here.
07:19So there are a few showers developing.
07:21They could be quite heavy.
07:23But they're going to be a bit slow moving.
07:24And so as a result, we could see rainfall totals building up a little bit in some places.
07:28Let's get rid of the pressure for now.
07:30Then behind the front, as we run this through, this is where we're going to see the heaviest, most likely
07:37to be thundery showers as we go through the day.
07:40Now, across much of England and Wales, there's a risk of showers.
07:43The further south you are, perhaps the lighter, the fewer and further between there are going to be with some
07:48dry, sunny weather in between.
07:49But across much of Northern Ireland, Southern Scotland and much of Northern England, that's where we have the greatest risk
07:56of some severe convection through Wednesday.
08:00I'm talking maybe 20, 30 millimetres in a couple of hours.
08:03And also some pretty large hail.
08:05Pretty much anywhere could see large hail of around one centimetre.
08:08But in some places, we could be looking at hail around two centimetres.
08:12Over Yorkshire, for example, that seems to be an area where we could see that severe convection.
08:16So do watch out for that frequent thunder, lightning, hail, gusty winds mixed in with it as well.
08:22The winds will be particularly strong for the time of year.
08:25Let's see what the winds are doing.
08:26You can see, yeah, wrapping around and with those big showers that bring those downdrafts, they bring the strong winds
08:33aloft down to the surface.
08:35So we could have some pretty strong gusts.
08:37We're talking 40, 50 miles per hour, maybe in some exposed coast when you get those heavier showers pushing through.
08:43So an unsettled picture, even away from just that band of rain that's coming through, the showers are going to
08:48bring an unsettled story.
08:50Now, I'll rattle through the next few days because I want to get on to what's going to happen through
08:55the rest of summer.
08:55Let's go back to the bigger picture and we'll still get rid of the jet for now.
08:59Oh, I'm pressing all the wrong buttons.
09:02But let's start to head to Thursday.
09:04Still a showery picture on Thursday.
09:06But notice a ridge of high pressure out towards the west.
09:09As we go into Friday, that ridge of high pressure is going to quiet things down for a short period
09:15of time.
09:16Just to go back to Thursday, showery, still some gusty, strong, gusty winds.
09:20The winds will be pretty strong for the time of year.
09:23But as we go through into Friday, that ridge of high pressure quietening things down.
09:28And then the eagle-eyed amongst you will have noticed an area of low pressure out in the Atlantic.
09:33Let's look back at how that's developing.
09:35Let's get back the jet stream.
09:37I said I would.
09:37And if we run that through, let's go back to about now-ish, where are we at?
09:43Tuesday evening, for sure.
09:45It hasn't yet developed.
09:47There's something coming towards the UK.
09:49The models are all hinting at it.
09:51But it hasn't yet developed.
09:53Actually, if I run this through, and even this time tomorrow, that feature doesn't really look like it will have
09:59established itself yet.
10:01But later Wednesday, and let's just go a little bit quicker, later Wednesday and more so into Thursday, now you
10:08can see the low pressure developing.
10:10And it's making its way across the jet stream.
10:12Remember, I said it's a relatively strong jet stream for the time of year.
10:16That's going to drive this low pressure towards us.
10:18Then we sort of have two jet streaks.
10:20And it then starts to interact with the more northern of the two, and still comes towards the UK as
10:26a deepening feature.
10:28Now, we're looking quite far ahead.
10:31This now looks set to arrive towards us Saturday sometime.
10:36But when we're looking that far ahead, particularly with a feature that hasn't even yet developed and established itself,
10:43there's always going to be a fair amount of uncertainty as to exactly what it's going to do.
10:48So the Met Office model I have here brings a deepening area of low pressure towards the north or towards
10:55the UK.
10:56And it would bring some wet and also some pretty windy weather to parts of the UK.
11:02Unseasonable, really, for the time of year.
11:04But different models do slightly different things.
11:07So here I have different scenarios that we could expect for this weekend.
11:12The most likely scenario, 50% chance we're going with, is the low pressure system deepening, but then starting to
11:20fill again.
11:21So becoming slightly more shallow by the time that it reaches us on Saturday.
11:25And it tracks somewhere around the southwest of the UK.
11:28Now, if this comes off, yes, it would be quite wet and there would be some strong winds, but not
11:35too impactful.
11:35We may need the odd warning here and there.
11:38We'd need to firm up on the details nearer the time.
11:41Another possibility is for the feature to become much weaker, maybe not even deepen as much as some models want.
11:48And as it comes across, just a bit of a trough.
11:51And again, there'd be a bit of rain, some blustery winds, a bit breezy, that kind of thing.
11:56But that shouldn't be especially impactful.
11:58The third possibility, however, is for a deeper low, an area of low pressure similar to what I just showed
12:04you with the Met Office model.
12:05Deep area of low pressure or deepening area of low pressure to come somewhere towards the northwest of the UK.
12:11Now, if this came off, particularly on the southern flank of the low, we could get some particularly strong winds,
12:16especially for the time of year and also some heavy rain mixed in with it.
12:20Remember, our warnings are all impact based.
12:22And so we do take the time of year into account.
12:26The fact that it'll be coming over a summer weekend means the impacts are likely to be greater with lots
12:31of events planned,
12:32outdoor events, compared to in the winter months when there's less of that.
12:36So there's something that we're really paying attention to.
12:39Now, we've got with around a 50, 25, 25 percent chance of these various scenarios.
12:43But within them, there are some intricacies, some details to firm up on.
12:48And it's not out of the question that we sort of have something in between the first and the third.
12:53And as much as it could still be quite deep, the low pressure, but it could just be a little
12:57bit further south,
12:58more towards the first scenario.
13:00Now, if that came off, then that could be a particularly wet and windy spell.
13:03So definitely something to watch for.
13:05I will be interested to hear what is said in tomorrow's 10-day trend.
13:09Albeit, as I mentioned, the feature doesn't look like it will have developed by then.
13:13So maybe not until Thursday, really, that we get a better handle on the situation
13:18and have greater confidence as to exactly what we're going to see as we head towards this weekend.
13:25Thereafter, through this weekend, it is going to be unsettled for a time.
13:30But looking further ahead, we've been talking about this for a little while,
13:34signs of higher pressure building again towards the middle of the month.
13:39So things are likely to settle down after quite a wet and around average initially,
13:45but perhaps turning a little bit cooler later on this week.
13:48A wet start to summer, wet start to June.
13:52As we head towards the middle of the month, higher pressure, more settled regime looks more likely.
13:58It's not a guarantee at this stage, but it does look more likely.
14:02But I know what you were asking for.
14:04I teased it at the start.
14:04How is the rest of June, how is the rest of summer looking likely?
14:09Well, we have issued our three-month outlook.
14:13Now, this is our one-month outlook.
14:15But, yeah, every month we issue a one-month and a three-month outlook.
14:18And with it being the start of meteorological summer,
14:21this three-month outlook looks at June, July and August, meteorological summer.
14:26So what can we expect?
14:27Well, worth bearing in mind that when we give these outlooks,
14:30because they're looking over such a long period of time,
14:33we come up with them by looking at all the different teleconnections,
14:38all the different features that are happening around the world
14:40and the trends that they're likely to bring based on the past
14:44and based on model outputs or our prediction systems' outputs.
14:49Now, they're not a forecast.
14:51It's not a guarantee.
14:53This is more likely than that.
14:55But as most of us know, just because something's more likely doesn't mean it would definitely happen.
15:01And similarly, just because it's less likely doesn't mean it won't.
15:05But here's the trend, or here's the month's likelihood of impact through June.
15:10And what we can see is it's more likely to be hotter than average than it is to be cooler
15:15than average.
15:16Near average is most likely, but hotter is more likely than cooler.
15:20Now, it feels a bit fresh perhaps at the moment,
15:24but actually, like I mentioned, temperatures are actually near normal for the time of year.
15:29Not really sure why that came up, but why that QWERTY keyboard's disappeared.
15:33I don't even know how to get rid of that.
15:35Maybe press that.
15:36There we go.
15:37Wow.
15:37My buttons are all going wrong today.
15:39Never mind.
15:41So where was I?
15:42But yeah, so it's a bit fresher at the moment,
15:44but only really feels like that because of that hot spell that we had last week.
15:48In reality, temperatures at the moment are near average for the time of year.
15:51Now, they are dropping down a little bit this week,
15:53but the trend is for it to warm up again later on as we go deeper into June,
15:58towards the middle of the month,
15:59and the second half of the month looks likely to be warm.
16:02That being said, this is not the right chart.
16:06This has gone to the three-month outlook.
16:07That being said, this outlook that we've given for June
16:12has around a 35% of it being hotter than normal.
16:15But we have a warming climate.
16:18And so 35% is about on trend with the change in our climate.
16:23As a result, whilst it is a little bit warmer than average,
16:28it's about what you'd expect with the way that things have developed.
16:32So really, this is kind of just near average for how things are looking
16:37as we go in the future of decades.
16:40This is the trend that we're just seeing more and more.
16:44In terms of rainfall, yes, we are starting the month on a wetter picture,
16:47but the second half does look set to be drier.
16:50So overall, near average looks most likely, I mean, 20% drier than average,
16:5415% wet.
16:55That's negligible, isn't it, really?
16:57So I think it's likely to be average dry, average wind,
17:02and average temperature most likely,
17:05but slightly warmer than average, more likely than cooler.
17:08But that's really just on trend with our warming climate.
17:12Now, I teased this earlier and showed you the three-month outlook,
17:14but this is the same idea, but this time it's looking at June, July and August,
17:19so the whole meteorological summer.
17:21And you can see we're going with around a 40% chance
17:24of it being hotter or warmer than average,
17:27which is quite a bit greater than 5%.
17:29Still worth highlighting, 55% near average, most likely.
17:33And when it comes to rain, 60%, still most likely.
17:36But when it comes to rain, around 25% chance looks,
17:40is higher than it being 50% chance of drier.
17:44So ever so slightly greater chance of being wetter than average
17:47compared to drier than average,
17:49but really near normal looks most likely.
17:51And it's kind of similar with temperatures.
17:53Again, if we add in the climate influence,
17:55that 40% chance is about what you'd expect with our changing climate.
18:00When it comes to these three-month outlooks,
18:03as I mentioned, there are lots of things we look at.
18:05Teleconnections, what's going on around the world
18:07and how they influence the UK's weather.
18:10But it's worth bearing in mind,
18:11the influence of teleconnections on the UK's weather
18:14is less during the summer months.
18:17It's much more of an influence during the autumn and the winter,
18:22whereas during the summer it has less of an impact.
18:25As a result, confidence is a little bit less
18:28in what we're suggesting here.
18:30However, you'll have no doubt heard about the fact
18:33that this year is forecast to be an El Nino year,
18:36a super El Nino, a Godzilla El Nino,
18:39according to some scientists.
18:40It's set to be quite strong.
18:42And that's had a knock-on effect
18:43to some of this output that I have behind me here.
18:47Do I have that chart? No, I don't.
18:49So what I have, this is the output
18:52from some of our prediction systems that we used
18:55when it came to coming up with that table
18:57that I just showed you.
18:58So I have the Met Office normal model,
19:00our Glossy, our Global Seasonal Forecasting model,
19:04and then ECMWF.
19:06And these charts are looking at temperature.
19:08And all of them, these are looking at the probability
19:10of greater than average temperature.
19:12And the oranges, particularly the deeper oranges,
19:15are higher probability.
19:17So showing that higher than average temperatures
19:20are most likely through June, July, and August.
19:23If I look at the same chart, but this time
19:26for rainfall or precipitation,
19:28and slightly confusing, the blues are actually indicating
19:31where it's a higher chance,
19:34no, it's a lower chance of being wetter than average,
19:37as in blue means it's likely to be drier than average.
19:41And as you can see, this is hinting at parts of the UK
19:44having a drier than average June, July, and August,
19:48which is different to what I just showed you in our table.
19:51And why is that?
19:51Well, it's because when we have an El Nino year,
19:56particularly when we have this transition,
19:59or actually, when we have an El Nino year,
20:01there's an increased likelihood
20:03that during the summer months,
20:05we get a westerly pattern
20:08in as much as we get a more mobile setup
20:10and we get our weather coming in from the west.
20:12It doesn't necessarily mean our winds
20:14will always be coming in from the west.
20:15They could come from the south at times.
20:17But it just means that we'll have this mobile pattern
20:20of weather coming in from the west.
20:23However, there tends to be with our prediction systems
20:27in an El Nino year,
20:29especially in a year where we transition
20:30from La Nina to El Nino, which is what we have,
20:33they have this sort of bias
20:34where they put high pressure,
20:37ridge of high pressure over Northern Europe,
20:38over the UK.
20:40And that brings a greater sign for drier
20:43and also therefore warmer weather during these months.
20:47But in reality, we know from past experiences
20:51that often doesn't happen
20:53and we get this westerly pattern
20:54because of the El Nino.
20:57And so whilst the raw output from the prediction systems
21:01had this sign of slightly drier than average,
21:04based on our experiences,
21:06we have come up with this table
21:09or this table in particular instead.
21:11So remember the middle column,
21:13the near average,
21:14most likely that's where the highest percentages are,
21:16but still hotter than average
21:19is more likely than cooler,
21:20wetter than average is more likely than drier,
21:22but only by negligible amounts really.
21:24And especially when it comes to the hot,
21:26you've got to factor in our climate change.
21:29That being said,
21:30there will be,
21:31or there are likely to be hot periods
21:33during the summer months.
21:35And with that greater chance of hot weather,
21:37heat waves are then a problem
21:39and they can cause some impacts.
21:40Although we are going with this 25% chance of wet
21:43and 25% chance of windy,
21:46you know,
21:4625,
21:47like a slightly increased wind
21:49in a season which isn't particularly windy
21:51is still just slightly less,
21:55no wait,
21:55slightly more windy than less wind.
21:57Do you get what I mean?
21:58So even though it could be windier than average,
22:01it doesn't mean it's going to be especially windy.
22:03And even though it could be wetter than average,
22:05it doesn't even mean that it will be especially wet.
22:08And actually it's more likely
22:09that the dry periods at this time of year
22:11will cause us problems,
22:12especially when we've had so much dry weather
22:14through recent months,
22:16then drought impacts could become more prevalent
22:19if we get this drier weather.
22:20And if we have this hot weather,
22:22the heat waves,
22:23they will cause problems to the public as well.
22:27Now, speaking of heat waves,
22:28I've already mentioned it
22:29or alluded to it already,
22:31but last week we did have a heat wave
22:33and that then had a knock-on effect
22:35to our average temperatures
22:37or our statistics
22:38for spring and May as a whole.
22:41So just looking back
22:42and we released some of the statistics on Monday
22:45and some people were a bit surprised
22:47when we came out and said
22:48for England and Wales,
22:50it was the warmest
22:51when you look at mean temperature spring on record
22:53and for the UK,
22:55it was the third warmest
22:56because whilst we had this hot spell
22:58towards the end of the month,
23:00many people remember that cooler spell,
23:02but, sorry,
23:03but we're looking at spring anyway
23:05and I was talking about May,
23:06but here I have a chart
23:08which I've shown you many times before.
23:09Apologies for this unmount thing.
23:11I don't know why it's saying that,
23:13but let's just move back.
23:14I shouldn't have touched the screen.
23:16But what we have here is the chart
23:18and I've shown this before
23:19and it looks at every day during 2026 is spring
23:23and compares it to average
23:25and if it's orange,
23:26it was warmer than average.
23:28We're looking at mean temperature here
23:29and if it's blue,
23:30then if the shaded area is blue,
23:32then it was colder than average
23:33and then we also have the extremes
23:35with the orange line
23:36and the blue line
23:37of the warmest and the coldest on record
23:39and what you can say
23:40is there is a lot more orange
23:43than blue on this chart for spring.
23:45So although there were some colder days,
23:48a few days in March,
23:49a few days in April
23:50and then that cold spell
23:51during the first half of May,
23:54when you add it all up,
23:55it's no wonder that May came up
23:57so remarkably warm
24:00or sorry,
24:00spring as a whole came up
24:01so remarkably warm
24:02just because the majority of days
24:04were warmer than average
24:05and when they were warmer,
24:07they were much warmer
24:08than the colder days
24:09were colder than average
24:11and you can really see
24:12that huge spike
24:13at the very end of the season.
24:15Now this is looking at mean temperature.
24:17If we look at maximum temperature,
24:19the difference is even more marked
24:21in as much as you can see
24:23the highs or the warmth
24:25is even warmer than average
24:27and the cooler days
24:30aren't that much cooler than average
24:32and again,
24:33you can see that huge spike
24:34at the very end of the month.
24:35Now looking at May
24:36in just a bit more detail
24:38and it really was a tale of two halves,
24:41albeit a bit of a warmer spell
24:43to start the month
24:43but then we had that colder period
24:45which many people will remember
24:46and think it would counteract
24:48that hotter spell
24:49but just because of how exceptional,
24:52how obscenely hot it was
24:54for the time of year,
24:56it hasn't,
24:57they don't weigh each other out.
24:59The hot has won out
25:01when you look at the statistics
25:02for May and for spring as a whole.
25:06This map here shows the anomaly
25:08for mean temperature
25:10through spring across the UK
25:11so it was definitely across southern areas
25:13where it was so much warmer
25:14than average.
25:15Further north,
25:16it wasn't as much
25:17but nonetheless,
25:18it was a very warm period
25:21and you can see many counties
25:23had their warmest spring on record,
25:26particularly across central southern parts
25:28of England
25:28but some parts of Wales
25:29and many places
25:30had one of their warmest springs
25:33if not their warmest spring.
25:34Like I said,
25:34it was England's warmest
25:36and the Wales' warmest spring on record
25:38and if we look at May,
25:40it's a similar chart
25:41but less marked.
25:42We have some warmer weather
25:44or some of the southern counties
25:46had their warmest May on record
25:48and many others
25:49had one of their warmest on record.
25:52One chart that I want to show you
25:53when it looks at mean temperature
25:55for spring
25:56and this is our trend
25:58through the last 100 or so years
26:01because we have data going back to 1884
26:03and you can see
26:05how things really have risen temperature-wise.
26:08It's a warming trend.
26:09Now you can see the last three years,
26:11this is for England,
26:12worth highlighting,
26:13the last three years
26:14have all been the warmest on record.
26:16So 2024 was the warmest on record
26:17at the time,
26:18then 2025 exceeded it
26:20and then 2026 exceeded it again.
26:23So the three warmest years
26:24have all come
26:29as the hottest at that time
26:31for spring
26:32and I think it's something like
26:33nine of our warmest in the top 10
26:36have all come since 2007.
26:38Don't correct me on that one.
26:39It's either nine or 10
26:40of our top 10
26:41have all come since 2007
26:43and we're going with data
26:44back to the late 19th century.
26:47So well over 100 years of data.
26:50But it's not just temperature
26:52that we are concerned about
26:53when it comes to looking back
26:55at stats for May and spring.
26:57Also, here's our rainfall chart.
26:59This is for spring as a whole
27:00and you can see
27:01towards the northwest of the UK,
27:03yes, it was a little bit wetter
27:04than average
27:04but elsewhere it was markedly drier
27:07and I've shown you this before
27:09but we didn't have the full season's stats
27:12to contrast it with
27:14but if we look at winter and spring
27:17and look at them,
27:19they are basically polar opposites
27:21in as much as winter.
27:23You may remember it was really wet
27:24across parts of the south,
27:26across central areas,
27:27northern Ireland and eastern Scotland
27:30whereas across western, northern Scotland
27:33and a few other places
27:34it was drier than average.
27:36Meanwhile, for spring
27:37it's the complete reverse.
27:39Yes, northwestern parts of Scotland
27:41and some parts towards like Cumbria,
27:42for example,
27:43have had a wetter than average spring.
27:45Elsewhere it's been much, much drier.
27:47So when you average it all out,
27:49you know, when you look at 2026 so far,
27:52it probably wouldn't show a huge amount
27:54in terms of the change
27:56but it's just how marked,
27:57how different,
27:58because of the different setups that we had,
28:00we had a slightly different pattern to normal.
28:02It was less of a westerly influence
28:05through much of the winter
28:07than we normally see
28:08which is why western Scotland
28:09was so much drier than average.
28:10We had lows getting stuck
28:13and just driving in rain
28:14towards the southwest
28:15and wrapping up into eastern parts.
28:17But it's just interesting
28:18just how contrasting
28:21these rainfall charts are
28:22when you look at winter
28:23compared to spring.
28:25And then also just to reference
28:27the fact that May
28:28was actually drier than average
28:29for the vast majority of the UK,
28:31just a few places.
28:32North East England, for example,
28:33having a slightly wetter
28:34than average May.
28:37Then sunshine amount
28:38and for spring,
28:40it was generally sunnier
28:41than average
28:42for most of the country
28:43which is, yeah,
28:47welcome news for most people,
28:48I guess.
28:49Many people enjoy the sunshine
28:50as long as you're able
28:51to enjoy it safely.
28:52One thing that I did want
28:54to actually mention
28:54before I forgot,
28:56or actually I did forget,
28:57but let's move back
28:58to this chart.
28:59And one thing that I wanted
29:00to mention with this warming trend
29:02with our changing climate,
29:04the extreme heat,
29:05it was extreme for May,
29:07that we saw last week
29:09is made more likely,
29:10significantly more likely
29:12because of our changing climate.
29:13In fact,
29:14a recent study found
29:15that the chances of exceeding
29:18the previous May record
29:19of 32.8 Celsius
29:20was now three times
29:22more likely
29:23in our climate
29:25that has been influenced
29:26by human greenhouse gas emissions
29:29compared to a natural climate
29:31without those greenhouse gas emissions.
29:34What was a one
29:35in a hundred year event
29:36is now a one
29:37in 33 year event,
29:39but that was looking
29:39at 32.8
29:41and as you're probably
29:42well aware,
29:43we got to 35.1.
29:46Now one thing before I go,
29:49I actually just wanted
29:50to have a look
29:50because it is
29:52the Monaco Grand Prix
29:54this weekend
29:55and I hadn't had a chance
29:56to look at this,
29:57but just for my own interest,
29:59I wanted to see
30:00what the weather's doing.
30:01So let's have a look.
30:02So there is some wet weather around
30:04in that,
30:05oh, I've got lost.
30:06Here we are.
30:07There is some wet weather around.
30:09What do we have?
30:10Oh, there's a front pushing through.
30:11Some wet weather
30:13arriving on Thursday.
30:15I think practice
30:15is now on Friday.
30:17It used to be on Thursday
30:17at Monaco,
30:18but I think it's now on Friday.
30:20Some rain arriving,
30:21but actually it looks like
30:21it's largely avoiding Monaco
30:24and that's coming overnight,
30:25really Thursday into Friday.
30:26Anyway,
30:27then that clears through
30:28and then Friday,
30:29you can't rule out
30:30a few showers nearby,
30:31but on the holes,
30:32it's looking dry
30:33and Saturday,
30:34oh, Saturday and Sunday.
30:35It's looking dry, really.
30:37Well, there we go.
30:38Not as interesting
30:38as I thought.
30:39I knew there was
30:40some rain nearby
30:40and thought that might
30:42influence the Grand Prix,
30:43but it doesn't look
30:43like it will.
30:45Anyway,
30:45that's everything
30:46that I've got to talk
30:47to you about today.
30:48Remember, as always,
30:49do get your questions
30:50and your comments coming in.
30:51I will be reading them
30:52this afternoon
30:53and we'll answer
30:54some of them straight away
30:55or some of them
30:56in the Weather Studio
30:56live on Friday.
30:57I think it's Annie
30:58and Alex Deacon
31:00back again,
31:01so they'll be going
31:02through all that
31:04and we'll obviously
31:05have the 10-day trend
31:06tomorrow.
31:07Hopefully,
31:07we'll have a better idea
31:08on what this weekend's
31:10going to bring,
31:10but it may be
31:11something that we
31:12need to affirm up on
31:13as we get nearer
31:14the time.
31:14Make sure you subscribe,
31:16make sure you hit
31:16that like button.
31:17Really appreciate it
31:18when you do
31:19and whatever you're up to,
31:20enjoy the rest of your day.
31:21Bye-bye.
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