- 21 hours ago
In this edition of Democratic Newsroom, the focus is on Karnataka leadership change where Siddaramaiah resigned as Karnataka Chief Minister on Thursday, paving the way for his deputy D K Shivakumar to take over the top post.
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00:20Good evening, namaskara, welcome to another edition of Democratic Newsroom, Karnataka edition.
00:25I'm joining you live from outside the iconic Vidant South, I've got my colleague Nagarjun Dwarkanath with me.
00:31The political temperatures have eased with that a beautiful breeze through the city of Bengaluru
00:37and to let them enjoy a bit of the beautiful Bengaluru weather away from the Delhi heatwave,
00:42we've teleported my colleagues down here to Bengaluru.
00:46I've got with me here Rajdeep Sardesai, Preeti Chaudhary and Gaurav Savant.
00:51Welcome, namaskara, to all three of you.
00:53I hope and I wish that sitting in Delhi you're able to get a sense of the beautiful Bengaluru weather,
00:59Rajdeep.
01:01Well, it has the best Vidant South building in the country without a shadow of a doubt.
01:06I see the colours are changing even as the political climate or the leadership climate is changing in Bengaluru.
01:14And yes, you have the weather. CV Raman, the great scientist once said that the reason he loved Bengaluru quite
01:22apart from anything else was the weather.
01:24And that makes Bengaluru very special.
01:27And I'm almost envying you that you and Nagarjun are not only in the heat of the action, but are
01:33in cool Bengaluru even as the three of us are suffering here in the heatwave of Delhi.
01:38Except it's just started raining here in Delhi.
01:41No, I'm going to say it's cool down now.
01:43You should, you should, Rajdeep, but you should also speak about the political change that has happened.
01:49And can I say that I told you so that it would happen as soon as May end?
01:53Because we keep having this conversation about Karmataka.
01:55He's been itching to say that, Rajdeep.
01:57No, that's right.
01:58I mean, you know, there was a sense that this was going to happen and Nagarjun was saying that by
02:03the end of May, there will be a change in guard.
02:06I think what has taken people by surprise is the manner in which it's been done.
02:12Normally, the Congress party is known to sometimes believe not taking a decision is the best decision.
02:18And the manner in which, in a way, Sidharamaya was almost told to resign and he complied so readily to
02:26the point that he was even seen to be hugging his Bait Noir DK Shiv Kumar today.
02:32The winds are clearly changing, both in the Congress party, in Bengaluru.
02:36And in that sense, obviously, the last 24 hours have shown that something is at least changing, particularly in the
02:47Congress party.
02:51Preeti, does it mean that Congress will finally look at taking bold decision?
02:55Because if they had done the same in Rajasthan, maybe the election result would have been different or they would
02:59have put up a better fight.
03:01Do you think the Congress party and Rahul Gandhi have started to now take decisions quite aggressively?
03:06Well, you know, okay, let's not get ahead of ourselves, Naga.
03:10You know, it's said often that one swallow doesn't quite make a summer.
03:15But you're right with what happened in Rajasthan, the same thing happened in Punjab, the same thing happened in Chhattisgarh.
03:21But why I think the Congress is making decisions which is very different to the grain of the Congress is
03:27we go back to the last three political decisions that the Congress has made in a span of one month.
03:33I think they've understood the meaning of timing and which the Congress completely lacked earlier.
03:38Let's go all the way back when we were in Tamil Nadu in Chennai.
03:42It took the Congress less than 48 hours to switch Naga from an old ally like DMK to the TVK
03:49and then actively play the go-between to try and garner support for that very alliance.
03:55Very unlike Congress.
03:56And even then, a lot of us were completely taken by surprise because if it was, you know, to come
04:02to switching an alliance, this deliberation would have gone on for months.
04:05It happened less than 24 in 48 hours.
04:08Then you move to Kerala, the neighboring state.
04:11And there, Naga, everyone until the last minute thought that the high command in all probability, Rahul Gandhi, will favor
04:17his man and put him, you know, in the chief minister's position.
04:21But that didn't quite happen.
04:22The Congress actually heard what was the natural sentiment or if there is something called political natural justice delivered that
04:30in the form of V.D. Satishan making him chief minister.
04:33Very unlike Congress, some would suggest.
04:35And now, I would reckon Rajdeep himself, you know, the night before, Rajdeep in Karnataka, when the change was affected,
04:41you yourself said that unlikely.
04:43You know, most political watchers of the Congress would have said that no, it would have been status quo, continuity,
04:50where Sidhara Maya was concerned.
04:51So, yes, a decision of bringing in D.K. Shiv Kumar a year and a half before elections in 2028,
04:57clearly he's going to be the one carrying the Congress into that election in 2028 and the general election in
05:022029.
05:02Decisions have been made.
05:04Now, whether will the Congress take it forward remains to be seen.
05:07But going by just the last three decisions, the Congress has made, Naga, interesting, different.
05:14I'm not convinced.
05:15I'm not that convinced that, you know, that the Congress has dramatically changed.
05:20I'm not saying it's dramatically changed.
05:22So, South India is very different.
05:23True.
05:23There's a comfort factor that the Congress has there because…
05:28No, no, Rajdeep, but even in the South, even in the South, look at Tamil Nadu.
05:33Before the elections, there was all the stock of power sharing.
05:35Congress didn't put their foot down.
05:36They said, okay, the high command ultimately decided what is the easiest way we'll go with that,
05:41which is to be in an alliance with the D.M.K.
05:42Something has changed, Rajdeep, in the last few weeks and how the high command is functioning.
05:46So, moving a giant like Sidra Maya doesn't come easily, Rajdeep.
05:50So, you know what kind of decision that they've taken.
05:52And in fact, what gives me some more surprise is not having KC Venugopal as a choice of CM and
05:58rather having VD.
05:59Can I tell you what we'll decide, which Rajdeep was saying is correct to a certain extent,
06:04but what we'll decide will be the next couple of decisions.
06:06In one year, less than a year, the position of General Secretary Organization empties itself out.
06:12Who will replace that position?
06:14Who will come in?
06:16You know, will it be KC Venugopal who will be removed?
06:19Who was given that slot?
06:20Will it be a faithful loyalist or someone who really deserves it?
06:23That decision is important.
06:24Will now the Congress look at Andhra Pradesh?
06:26Will they try and foster an alliance in Andhra Pradesh?
06:29I think the next few decisions, Rajdeep.
06:32Look, as I said, it's the grand old party.
06:35I think what has happened is a weakening of the high command.
06:38And with the weakening of the high command, there is a strengthening of the local organization.
06:44We saw that in Kerala.
06:46We've seen that in Tamil Nadu.
06:48We've seen that in Karnataka.
06:49If I were to detect a pattern, it's...
06:52Not so much in Karnataka.
06:53He came to Delhi this time saying now or never.
06:55He wasn't going to take no for an answer.
06:58He'd come here with a clear plan that this time he wasn't going to bend down, accept and allow the
07:04Congress high command to buy more time.
07:06Satishan and his supporters did something which is very unusual.
07:09They virtually were challenging the Congress high command by saying, look, our leader is the most popular leader.
07:15Kesi Venu Gopal may have the tacit backing of Rahul Gandhi.
07:19But at the end of the day, it's our leader who's got the support on the ground.
07:24Plus the IUML pressure.
07:26It wasn't just...
07:27I don't agree with it.
07:28The IUML pressure fits in with the narrative, Gaurav, that you would like to push.
07:32No, you...
07:34They didn't need the IUML.
07:35They didn't need the IUML.
07:36They may or may not have needed IUML, but is it the IUML pressure there?
07:41And this time I completely agree, you know, it's the weakening of the central leadership in this case.
07:46With D.K. Shivkumar, it's anyway delayed.
07:48If it was supposed to be two and a half years and two and a half years, clearly D.K.
07:52Shivkumar gets much less time.
07:54That's 0.1, 0.2 Rajdeep and Akshita.
07:57The bigger point maybe, will Siddharamaya permit him to function in the manner in which he may want to function?
08:03Whether his loyalist will still remain in the government and in the party there?
08:08All of this.
08:09You know, is this curtains for Siddharamaya as far as this Natak is concerned?
08:14Or will we see another season of this Natak?
08:16That remains to be seen.
08:18You know, what has happened is...
08:19That's a fair question that Gaurav has asked right now.
08:22Go ahead.
08:23Go ahead, go ahead.
08:25Yeah, Rajdeep.
08:26Okay, so I just want to bring in Naga on that.
08:28Naga, will Siddharamaya completely stay out or will he be pulling the strings?
08:32Thanks.
08:34Rajdeep, go ahead.
08:35Go ahead, Rajdeep.
08:37Look, I was just making two very quick points.
08:40One, don't forget the impact that Sonia Gandhi's had.
08:43Semi retired, but we are told both in the context of Shivkumar and in the context of Satishan,
08:49there was a Sonia Gandhi hand there.
08:51In the context of Satishan, she spoke to AK Antony,
08:54took feedback from one of their tallest leaders or former leader of Kerala,
09:00got those inputs, gave them to the party.
09:03And in the case of Shivkumar, apparently she said,
09:05we had committed to him that two and a half years after Siddharamaya,
09:11Shivkumar would take over.
09:13So, it's interesting.
09:15And not just that when Shivkumar was in the prison in Tihar Rao,
09:19Sonia Gandhi personally went…
09:21I think you've got to be very clear.
09:23Sachin Pilate, I think, when that entire revolt took place,
09:29in a sense, almost burnt his bridges at one level with the high command.
09:34Just one very quick final point on all of this.
09:38It's interesting the contrast that's taking place.
09:40In the BJP, where you've got the all-powerful high command,
09:43chief ministers are decided by firman.
09:46Bhajan Lal Sharma over a Vasundha Rajay or a Pushkar Dhami or a Rekha Gupta.
09:51These decisions are not taken by consulting legislators.
09:54Ironically, the Congress is now doing what the Congress never did in the past.
09:59The BJP has become the old Congress and the new Congress is resembling the old BJP.
10:06Much more consultative.
10:08And that's the change.
10:10Is that much more consultative or pressure that's mounted either by VD Satishan
10:14or by D.K. Shivkumar?
10:16Because D.K. Shivkumar says, I do all the hard work,
10:18but I am not rewarded for the hard work.
10:20And the pressure is, if he's not rewarded,
10:23then the elections in 2028 may be a nightmare for the Congress
10:26in case there's internal fighting, as it was both in Chhattisgarh and in Rajasthan.
10:32Either way, Mr. Shivkumar has got a tough task on hand.
10:38But even if they didn't change Shivkumar,
10:40there are local elections across Panchayat Samitis in five months.
10:44He will, by the time he hits the ground running two major elections,
10:47then he's got just one year.
10:49Not easy.
10:49Also, Siddharamaya, like it or not, and we saw a bit of it today,
10:52remains a mass leader, not easy to just, you know, cast him aside.
10:58Importantly, he's not willing to take the Rajya Sabha Sikh as of now.
11:01Now, all of this...
11:02That's the big point.
11:03None of this could happen in the BJP of today.
11:06No, no, but Rajdeep, for one hand, you're saying consultative process,
11:10and on the other, the only factor that perhaps worked here was a promise.
11:15Nothing beyond a promise, essentially, Rajdeep.
11:17You're saying that the Congress has become more consultative,
11:19but the reality is that it was only a promise that led to D.K. Shivkumar
11:23becoming the Chief Minister.
11:24Siddharamaya, for no fault of his, has been removed right now
11:27as the Chief Minister, has resigned.
11:28No, but that promise itself is consultative, right?
11:31Because it had done in the consensus of the high command
11:34with Congress President Malik Arun.
11:35No, but I'll tell you why I'm not referring to this consultative.
11:37It was pressure.
11:38It was pressure from two camps, and the Congress high command said,
11:41because we are at a loss of a solution,
11:44two and a half years, two and a half years.
11:45No, but in hindsight, if this didn't happen, we asked us to look back in 2028 and say that this
11:51should be…
11:51Tunaga, just coming in there also, the pressure was also when the two and a half year was completed.
11:55Like I said, the Congress has understood the importance of timing.
11:59It didn't happen then.
12:00Clearly, it was in the work since then.
12:03You gave Siddharamaya an honourable exit.
12:06He exits now as the longest serving Chief Minister of Karnataka.
12:10You've given him that.
12:11So, I think what the Congress got right this time is the timing of it.
12:17And therefore, you see the kind of optics which possibly the BJP might not like
12:21of what seemingly on the surface is a smooth transition.
12:26But those are optics for today.
12:28Will Siddharamaya permit D.K. Shivkumar to function and lead the Congress in the next election
12:34is the big challenge, is the big question that we'll be looking at very closely, Naga.
12:37Gaurav, that's the big question.
12:39And also, having a giant figure like Siddharamaya in the backyard and sitting alone and silent
12:45is a big, big factor in Karnataka.
12:46No, so do you think it's going to happen, Naga?
12:48Absolutely.
12:48That he will pull the strings of the government?
12:50That he will call the shots?
12:51He will call the shots.
12:52He might not pull the carpet under Shivkumar's leg because the number of MLAs are a bit too much.
12:57140 MLAs.
12:58So, he can't be a threat.
12:59But there'll be constant nitpickings in the governance.
13:02People will also compare Shivkumar's style of governance to Siddharamaya's style of governance.
13:06And you can't take the MLA slightly.
13:08There are a lot of supporters of Siddharamaya will be in the cabinet and will be in the assembly also.
13:14And they constantly will be picking on Shivkumar if he doesn't take the instances of all of them.
13:18Naga, what's the juice on deputy CMs?
13:20Is Siddharamaya getting his men as deputy chief ministers and cabinet ministers?
13:25What's the political juice there?
13:27What are you picking up?
13:28Preeti, in fact, Siddharamaya is landing in half an hour in Delhi right now.
13:33He's coming with a list is what I'm told.
13:35And he definitely wants a couple of power centers while Shivkumar is saying,
13:39boss, I don't want any power centers.
13:40That's why DK, Shivkumar is chasing him right up to Delhi right now.
13:43That might be the reason.
13:44Shivkumar definitely doesn't want any power centers.
13:46He doesn't want his position to be questioned or diluted.
13:48But I think they might have, Preeti, they might have in all likelihood deputy chief ministers because of the original
13:55balance and caste balance that they want to, caste arithmetic they want.
13:58They want to fill the giant Siddharamaya shoes, right?
14:00He represented almost 80% of the population.
14:03He consolidates the Ahinda community, the minorities, the OBCs.
14:06Will it become Ahinda versus Dota Liga?
14:08Local Liga and Liga, it's together at 25%.
14:10Naga, or can they take everyone together?
14:12Because who gets finance ministry?
14:14Who gets public works department?
14:16Who gets the money portfolios?
14:21No, but also we have got it wrong.
14:23Congress party with Siddharamaya, without Siddharamaya, with Shivkumar, without Shivkumar has the 35% vote bank.
14:29So largely the minorities, the Ahindas have always been with the Congress party.
14:33So these leaders will give you the last mile of 3% vote share.
14:37Otherwise you still have the solid 35% vote share irrespective of who becomes the chief minister in Karnataka.
14:43If tomorrow I am the chief minister of Congress party Karnataka, I still have 35%.
14:47All the best.
14:48It's the 35% in the last mile who takes you through the boundary line.
14:53No, no, it's not easy.
14:54Let's be honest.
14:55You've got the BJP and JDS together.
14:58The BJP has its own problems.
14:59You know, what is very interesting, you finally have a Karnataka political milieu
15:04where Siddharamaya, the old war horse, once with the Janta Dal, now with the Congress, is slowly stepping aside.
15:10Yedirappa has more or less retired, although politicians never retire.
15:14And Deva Gowda, even in his 90s, is at the end of the road.
15:18So you have an opportunity emerging.
15:20The BJP hasn't seen it yet.
15:22No, no, don't say it.
15:24Deva Gowda wants to enter Rajasabha now.
15:26By June 8th, you might even have Deva Gowda entering Rajasabha at 94.
15:30He recently celebrated his birthday at 94.
15:32So you will have Rajasabha.
15:33And one more thing, JDS and BJP together have 55% vote share.
15:37And that's the big task.
15:38But then you also have a local leader right now, Naga, in the form of DKS as the Chief Minister.
15:44And then you counter that with the JDS.
15:47No, no, the fact is JDS plus BJP is a very formidable coalition as we saw in the Lok Sabha.
15:53Once they come together, they become a very formidable coalition.
15:56So DK Shiv Kumar will have his hands full.
15:59He has to not only establish himself as the Premier Vokal Liga leader, but he has to take others along.
16:06You see, DK Shiv Kumar for the first time will now find the challenge of, as you said, Sidharam Mahiya
16:12and his loyalists who will also want to be accommodated.
16:15We are told there could be two Deputy Chief Ministers, one a Lingayat, one a Dalit.
16:20Karnataka, as we've seen, is a caste cauldron.
16:22If, you know, it is the, if Uttar Pradesh is the caste cauldron of the North, Karnataka is the caste
16:28cauldron of the South.
16:29Therefore, managing all the caste challenges will be one of the many challenges that DK Shiv Kumar will face.
16:36The first one is Bengaluru.
16:37He's the Chief, he was the Minister in charge of Bengaluru.
16:40And you've got an election there in a seat, in a city which was dominated by the BJP in the
16:462024 election.
16:48Will he be permitted to function as Chief Minister or will Sidharam Mahiya and his team will keep sniping big
16:54with 2028 in mind?
16:55Look, I think Sidharam Mahiya also knows that he will, you know, Sidharam Mahiya is an old-style regional satra.
17:02He's like Deva Gowda.
17:03They never retire.
17:04So, Sidharam Mahiya is not going to retire and go into the sunset.
17:07He's going to continue to play some kind of a role in Karnataka politics.
17:11There's absolutely no doubt about it.
17:13I think what Shiv Kumar will bring to the table is energy.
17:17The fact is, he is desperate enough now that he's got the Chief Minister to at least try.
17:21This is, he's 18 months in the sun.
17:24The other person may not be going into the sunset, but DK is finally finding a place in the sun.
17:29So, he will do whatever it takes.
17:31And I think that's one of the reasons why the Congress took the gamble.
17:34They knew that even with a Sidharam Mahiya, 2028 is not going to be easy.
17:39But you've effected some kind of a generational change of sorts.
17:43And you're giving DK Shiv Kumar what you promised him.
17:46So, do you see this as a lesson learned from mistakes made in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in the past?
17:51Or you don't see them as mistakes?
17:53I think each state is very different to the other.
17:55The politics of different states are different.
17:58It's never easy to compare one state to the other.
18:00Which is why I said, to suddenly say that the Congress has transformed itself, no.
18:04Okay.
18:04But I do think...
18:05You know, we're running out of time.
18:06We're running out of time.
18:07This can keep going on quickly.
18:08From all of you, I will get one answer.
18:11Rajdeep, to you first.
18:12Looking at 2028 and 2028 alone.
18:14Yes or no?
18:15Right decision by the Congress high command of choosing DK Shiv Kumar?
18:21If you're looking at it from a 2028 perspective, I'm not so sure.
18:26No, Rajdeep is good friends with both of them.
18:28He's good with Sidra Maya and DK Shiv Kumar.
18:31That's the reason he's finding it difficult to answer.
18:32I think you had to give Shiv Kumar his moment in the sun.
18:36You see, if someone has been around for 35 years, was promised by the entire Congress leadership,
18:41two and a half years, two and a half years.
18:43If there was one leader who deserved it, because he was willing to do the hard work for the party
18:48at various levels,
18:49I think he deserved it.
18:50Whether he can win the Congress 2028, big question mark.
18:54Deserves, okay, Rajdeep, yes or no?
18:56Good decision for 2028, yes or no?
18:58Quick, quick.
18:59You're not answering my question.
19:00You're putting a question back at me.
19:02No, I'm not putting the question back.
19:04What about you?
19:042028, right decision by the high command of choosing DK Shiv Kumar?
19:07I think electability, whether winning an election is very different,
19:09but I think the Congress had no option at the end.
19:12In this case, they had no option.
19:13Well, you know, Akshita, I think 100%.
19:15It's the best decision that the Congress has taken.
19:17And why I say that is, I don't quite believe that the moment in the sun for DK Shiv Kumar
19:21is now.
19:22But the Congress has handed him an opportunity of getting his moment in the sun,
19:26which is his real term in 28.
19:27And he has that bandwidth now.
19:29DK Shiv Kumar cannot go back to the Congress and say,
19:32I couldn't do enough, my hands were tied, you gave it to me too late.
19:34It's a year and a half.
19:35Some might suggest that it's too short a time, but there is time.
19:39Let me put you guys on the spot.
19:41What if tomorrow the BJP, they'll already start this campaign.
19:45If the BJP starts a campaign saying, look, Rahul Gandhi talks about OBC politics
19:50and the party's only OBC chief minister has been told to resign.
19:54How will the...
19:55Okay, we're running out of time.
19:57We're running out of time.
19:58You guys tell me.
19:59How will the...
20:00How will the...
20:01What will be the response on the ground?
20:03Saga, you want to go?
20:05I think...
20:06I think...
20:06I think it's...
20:07I think I'll not hold back.
20:09I think it's the right decision taken by the Congress Party.
20:11It was long pending.
20:12I think Sidramayi had his fair share of power
20:15and he's exercised his fair share of power
20:17and they had both had their roles in 2023 election.
20:21I think it's a fair decision by the Congress Party.
20:22Okay, only fair.
20:23Gaurav, 10 seconds, please.
20:25Right decision, but a little too late.
20:27It should have happened at least six months earlier.
20:29Both of them should have got two and a half years
20:31so that even DK Shiv Kumar had enough time to work and deliver.
20:35So it should have happened much earlier.
20:37Guess what?
20:37But for once, Gaurav and I might actually agree with each other on that.
20:41You know, I do quite agree.
20:42I think the timing was perfect.
20:43It wouldn't have happened so soon.
20:45Okay, we'll enter time out.
20:46I don't want to jinx it.
20:47It would not have happened this morning.
20:49This was about to be one hour.
20:52You need to ease out, Siddhi.
20:53Please mute the mic.
20:54Please mute the mic.
20:55We're going to have to otherwise not go to to the point.
20:58So I'm going to have to now cut off this debate.
21:01Thank you all very much.
21:03You know, I wanted to ensure that you also had a bit of fun of all the drama we've been
21:06witnessing
21:07and that's why we decided to teleport here to the beautiful Vidant Souda in Bengaluru.
21:11We've got the best team out here on the ground and in the studios.
21:14Sometimes we bring them over to Bengaluru as well to get you a sense of what's happening right now.
21:19But it's DKS Sarkara all the way now in Karnataka.
21:222028, we'll know ultimately if the gamble has paid off for the Congress or not.
21:26But that's all in this edition of Democratic Newsroom.
21:29Thanks very much for joining us.
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