00:00We are just a little over a week away from the start of the Atlantic hurricane season.
00:06It begins June 1st.
00:08Now, the vast majority of storms in the Atlantic Basin form from mid-August through the month of September,
00:14but you always have to be wary of early season development, what we call homegrown development,
00:20during the month of June.
00:22That happens when you get an interaction between the jet stream and the tropics.
00:26You need a little kickstart to get showers and thunderstorms to form.
00:30How does that happen?
00:31The dip in the jet stream comes southward, and what that can do is produce areas of low pressure
00:37where you get showers and thunderstorms to form,
00:40and if those showers and thunderstorms could sit in the warm waters of the Caribbean, the Gulf,
00:45or off the southeast coast of the United States, they can slowly develop into a tropical system.
00:51Do we have a pattern like that upcoming?
00:53We certainly do.
00:55A week from now, we're going to see a weak dip in the jet stream across the Gulf.
00:59Now, what that is going to do is there's going to be energy and moisture in the Caribbean.
01:04It's going to draw it northward, either toward Florida or toward Cuba, Jamaica, or the Bahamas
01:11as we head in a week from now.
01:13Do I think it's going to develop?
01:15I do not.
01:16But this is the first real time where we're going to see tropical moisture
01:20and perhaps at least a disturbance get drawn northward here.
01:23So as we look at late May and early June, we're going to keep an eye on that system
01:29that tries to come up toward Florida, Cuba, or the Bahamas a week from now.
01:34And also early June, there's some indications that low pressure is going to try to form off the Carolina coast.
01:42So two areas to think of over the next two weeks.
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