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NFL Draft analyst Justin Melo joins the program to talk about the Commanders running back room and rookie draft.
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00:00We are excited right now to jump on the Rude Guest Hotlines
00:04and talk to our friend Justin Mello from Sports Illustrated.
00:08Justin, what's going on, man? How are you?
00:10I'm doing well. Appreciate you gentlemen for having me.
00:13It's nice to have some OTA football content on the timeline.
00:16It feels like we're getting back into the swing of things here.
00:19That's right, man. We were at Commander's Rookie Minicamp a couple weeks back
00:23and they'll have OTAs next week. We'll be out there.
00:27I wanted to talk to you. You do a lot on the NFL draft
00:31and I know you wrote about the fit of Catron Allen, the fat man,
00:35the Penn State running back, coming to Washington.
00:37Just kind of give me your thoughts.
00:40Yeah, I really like that pick. Round 6, 187 overall.
00:45Pre-draft, I've done a lot of work on him, of course.
00:48Very productive back. I think toe-ready frame, really good size.
00:52I think probably the most important trait a running back can have
00:56going from college to the pros might be the most underrated.
00:59It's having good vision, right?
01:01And when I watch him run the football, he runs like a pro-ready back.
01:06And I think that's going to benefit the Commanders a lot.
01:08He leaves Penn State, you know, all-time rushing leader in program history.
01:12Nearly 4,200 rushing yards throughout his time there as a Nittany Lion.
01:18Don't think you can overstate, you know, the level besides that achievement.
01:21Obviously, one of the better programs around college football over the last 50-plus years.
01:26So, for me, I really like the fit.
01:28And then, you know, I don't know if I'm getting ahead of myself here,
01:31but you look at that depth part in Washington,
01:33and it certainly feels like there might be some opportunity for him to carve out a role.
01:40You know, of course, you know, Bill Krofsky-Meritt heading into year two.
01:44I think had, you know, an up-and-down rookie year.
01:47The hype might have gotten a little out of control going into year one.
01:51They make some changes there, right?
01:53Chris Rodriguez no longer in the room.
01:55They bring in a couple guys, you know, short-term deals who are, I would call them,
02:00Band-Aid solutions.
02:02Rashad White, you know, Jeremy Ford.
02:04The latter of which Ford, you know, I'm not even convinced that he makes that roster, right?
02:09They bring back Jeremy McNichols.
02:11So, it's a crowded room, but in truth, it's probably more quantity than quality.
02:18So, it certainly feels like, you know, K-Tron Allen has a good training camp,
02:22a good preseason, whatever it is.
02:24It certainly seems like there's opportunity for him to carve out a role for himself in that room.
02:28Does he have RB1 potential?
02:32And what does that even mean?
02:34Because he's a sixth-round pick who is trying to supplant a seventh-round pick
02:39who at one point kind of was the RB1.
02:44I think he does a lot of good things, right?
02:46Could he be the RB1 in this room?
02:49I could see it.
02:50Do I think he's a true, true RB1 in terms of, you know, high-end running back in the NFL?
02:58No, I don't think I'm comfortable going there, right?
03:00I think there's probably a reason that he was a sixth-round pick.
03:04And, you know, my pre-draft scouting report would say those reasons are there's probably a cap ceiling, right?
03:11Like, you know, he's not the most explosive guy that I've ever seen, not the most dynamic.
03:16I don't know that he's breakaway speed in the open field.
03:21I don't think he has those things, right?
03:23But if I look at, you know, what this team is going to be, and I think he's probably going
03:28to be running back by committee, right?
03:30I think everyone's going to chip in and help.
03:32I don't think there's anyone that's going to run away with this job.
03:36I think he's, you know, an RB by committee kind of guy because he's big, he's physical.
03:42So immediately, I think, well, first, second down, you know, between the tackles, goal to go, you know, short yardage.
03:50A lot of what Chris Rodriguez did for them, right, for a period of time before moving on.
03:55So I think he's got that potential.
03:58And if you can get that kind of guy in the sixth round, I think that's a win.
04:02But in terms of being, you know, a true, true high-end RB1 in the NFL, I think a lack
04:08of, you know, breakaway speed and dynamic athleticism, the explosiveness, I think that probably holds him back from reaching that
04:15category.
04:16Yeah, I mean, just watching him run, and granted, it was rookie minicamp and there weren't pads on and stuff,
04:21but Dan Quinn said you could see the power and watching him at practice, whenever that was, you know, two
04:27weeks ago, I could see the path for him.
04:30With C-Rod and Jacksonville, to me, they're not looking for an RB1.
04:34It's going to be Bill, it's going to be Fatman, and it's going to be Rashad White.
04:37I think White's going to have a big role here, but I do think there's a true path to a
04:44roster spot for Fatman.
04:46I think you're right about Jerome Ford being on the outside.
04:49McNichols just makes plays for this team, and I think he'll be part of the 70 one way or another.
04:54Whether he breaks camp on the 53 or not is different.
04:57NFL rosters have changed so much now.
05:00With the changed practice squad rules, that veterans can be on there.
05:04Justin, how much has that hurt, maybe, you know, Saturday draft picks, that veterans can be on these practice squads
05:14now?
05:16Well, I think, number one, there's a number of factors that go into it.
05:20It's a devalued position around the NFL.
05:22I still believe that.
05:24Just look at the way that they get paid, right, compared to other positions.
05:27They are one of the lower-paid positions on the football field.
05:31So there's a devalued nature to it.
05:33There's your replaceable nature to it.
05:36I mean, you look at the way the commanders went about it this offseason.
05:39They let Chris Rodriguez go.
05:41They bring in a couple cheap guys on short-term deals, and then they just draft the guy in the
05:45sixth round.
05:46And then, you know, they pair all those three additions with a sophomore day-three kick, and they're going to
05:52say, well, we're good.
05:53You know, we feel good about what we have.
05:54You wouldn't do that at cornerback.
05:56You wouldn't do that at pass rusher.
05:58You wouldn't do that almost anywhere else, right?
06:00So there's certainly a devalued nature to it.
06:03And then, sure, you know, I think the practice squad rules have played a role as well.
06:07And you talk about someone like Jeremy McNichols, who I covered closely up in Tennessee for a long period that
06:14he was there.
06:15We used to call him Jeremy McWeapon, you know, because he just makes plays, I think, for that offense or
06:20special teams, whatever unit is on.
06:22He's a guy that won't be denied, and yet he strikes me as the kind of guy, and you kind
06:27of hit the nail on the head there, if he doesn't make the 53, you'd probably feel pretty good about
06:33your ability to sneak him onto the practice squad, right, due to the nature of the position.
06:37And then you've got other rules, right?
06:39Now you can call these guys up four times from the practice squad before you have to add them to
06:44your roster without them counting towards, you know, your game day flexibility.
06:48So there's just so much you can do with the practice squad nowadays that I would say, yeah, I guess
06:54a devalued position like running back has probably suffered from it a little bit more.
06:59I'm old enough to remember when you used to say, can this guy get 30 carries a game?
07:03Well, that's laughable.
07:04Now the new number is 20.
07:07Last year, as I look at the numbers.
07:09And it's touches, not even carries.
07:10Well, true, right.
07:11But I'm looking at the carries from last year.
07:13JP, you probably know this, but Bill got the most at 175.
07:18Chris Rodriguez was second at 112.
07:21The next two were Daniels and Mariota at quarterback.
07:25Then McNichols got 44.
07:27You want to know what the high carry total between Bill and Rodriguez was for a single game?
07:34Granted, they were behind by a billion.
07:37I bet it's up to 20.
07:38I doubt either of them got to 20.
07:39Correct.
07:40Probably like 16, 17.
07:4118.
07:42Yeah.
07:4218.
07:43That totally tracks.
07:43So we're talking about maybe getting 12 carries a game, if that, six to 12 carries.
07:49I mean, these running backs have got to produce literally every time they touch the ball or
07:54they won't see it again.
07:55One thing that will be different for the Washington offense, though, is you're going to see a lot
07:58less designed quarterback runs.
08:00Not that quarterbacks won't be running, but there'll be less design there.
08:05Justin, I wanted to circle to another story you wrote.
08:08We're talking with Justin Mello from Sports Illustrated, covers the NFL draft.
08:11Give him a follow at Justin M underscore NFL.
08:15Certainly, you know, there's a role for Fat Man here, but let's go to the first round.
08:19You had an article about kind of underrated first round picks across the league.
08:25Jordan Tyson, major list.
08:27Carnell Tate, major list.
08:28I think Reuben Bain slipping a bit to get to 15 to Tampa.
08:33That totally tracks with me.
08:35What do you think about Washington being able to get Sonny Stiles at seven?
08:40Yeah, they have no complaints, I would imagine, right?
08:43Like, I think a lot of people fought pre-draft.
08:46He probably goes four or five, right?
08:48Tennessee Titans, New York Giants.
08:50You know, those two teams go in different directions.
08:52Pines decide to help their young quarterback.
08:54I get that.
08:56And then Stiles, you know, being there at seven, I think Washington probably runs that,
09:01probably ran that pick to the podium, I imagine.
09:04I love it.
09:05I mean, I think that article was about first round picks that kind of walked into dream scenarios as well.
09:10I included him in that one, too, because you get to go play for a defensive-minded head coach
09:14in Dan Quinn, you know, check mark.
09:17You know, new defensive coordinator is going to be calling plays.
09:19I think he's got a lot of upside in that role.
09:21We'll check mark.
09:22They haven't brought back Bobby Wagner, so there's sort of a leadership role there that's up for the taking
09:28and also a high-volume production role, right, from a tackling number standpoint, check mark.
09:34I think he's going to give them, of course, you know, more than Wagner could in coverage at, you know,
09:38that later stage of his career with his ability to turn and run and how long he is
09:42and he impacts passing windows.
09:44I just think the fit is seamless, right?
09:47And they've upgraded the front seven, right, not just, of course, that linebacker through him,
09:51but they brought in a couple of pass rushers, and I think when those defensive linemen are playing better ball,
09:56it makes a linebacker's job easier.
09:58So there's not a lot to not like, I guess, is what I'm trying to say about the fit between
10:04Sonny Stiles and the Washington Commanders.
10:07I mean, he's got my vote for, you know, my early pick for defensive rookie of the year,
10:11because I think he's just going to rack up numbers.
10:14I think he has 130-plus tackles.
10:16I think, you know, they're going to deploy him in different ways.
10:19They're going to be creative in versatility with his usage.
10:21He could rush the quarterback.
10:23Jack, I think if you look at the, it's interesting, if you look at his pass rushing splits last year,
10:28he was essentially as productive as Arzel Reese was.
10:32And meanwhile, you know, Reese had all this projection to pass rusher.
10:36You know, no one did that with Sonny Stiles.
10:38I get it, but the point is, you give him opportunities to rush off the edge,
10:41blip the quarterback, whatever it is, he can get after the pocket.
10:45So turn and run in coverage, interceptions, fumbles forced.
10:48I think he's going to rack up numbers this year and probably run away with defensive rookie of the year.
10:53There you go.
10:56He's walking into a position that's like tailor-made as well.
10:59What do you make of the third-round receiver, Antonio Williams?
11:04Well, they had a role there, right?
11:06They had a slot open, I think, specifically at the slot position, I should say.
11:10I haven't brought back Debo Samuel.
11:12The Brandon Ayoub thing is, I guess, kind of in limbo as we wait on movement there.
11:16Or, I think, Antonio Fett said he can come in and, if needed, play the slot for them rather quickly.
11:23He's athletic, he's creative, really good in the open field.
11:26He's very twitchy.
11:28I think he's got to hone in on the route running a little bit.
11:30When you watch him on tape, there's a little bit of freestyling, which, in all honesty,
11:35a lot of college-wide receivers suffer from.
11:37I remember interviewing A.J. Brown when he was coming out of Ole Miss.
11:41I asked him what his favorite route to run in the offense was.
11:43He looked at me and said, we had a route called Get Open, where we just kind of did what
11:48we wanted,
11:48and we got open.
11:49And I said, oh, dear Lord, who's running the offense?
11:52He's like, what are we doing, right?
11:52Who's running the offense?
11:54So, you'd be surprised.
11:55A lot of these guys come out of college not that polished when it comes to the route running.
12:00So, I think he's got to get better there.
12:02But, again, that's kind of par for the course.
12:04But, you watch him on tape, he's athletic, he's dynamic, he's twitchy.
12:08I think he's a tailor-made fit for the slot position.
12:10I think that's why they targeted him specifically, right, with that role in mind,
12:14not bringing that Devo Samuel kind of saying, okay, you know, admitting defeat maybe on that one.
12:19But I think if they need him to play, I think he can do it fairly quickly from the slot.
12:24Again, they bring in Brandon Ayuk, he probably gets pushed down the pecking order.
12:28And, honestly, it's probably best for him, right?
12:30Like, you don't want to be too reliant on a rookie you drafted in the 70s.
12:35But he can do it.
12:36I think he's capable of playing reps.
12:38And, you know, maybe there's a role on special teams, too.
12:40But excited to watch him kind of compete for opportunities in the slot this summer.
12:44For sure.
12:45And I think there'll be real opportunities.
12:47We'll see kind of what happens with the dig stuff that's floating around, even the Ayuk.
12:52One more, just about the DN they drafted, Joseph's out of Tennessee.
12:56I watched him at rookie minicamp and was pretty impressed.
12:58Where did you have him evaluated?
13:02Yeah, I thought he was, you know, very athletic.
13:05He's long.
13:06You kind of like certain aspects of his frame.
13:09I think he's got to add more play strength and fill it out a little bit.
13:12But he's long and he knows how to use it.
13:14And he's athletic.
13:15And I thought he had some good production this past year for Tennessee.
13:19And you see the pathway.
13:22I know that pre-draft, there were some sort of character questions.
13:28And, you know, I won't get into it, obviously.
13:30But whether it was work ethic or whatever it was, I know Scouts had some question marks there.
13:36And that's probably why he ends up going, you know, 147.
13:39Because I personally thought the tape was a bit better than 147.
13:44But when it all comes together, you know, I think there were factors that kind of led to his, you
13:50know,
13:50day three slide, middle of round five, whatever you want to call it.
13:53But when you watch him on tape, I agree.
13:56Like, I see the path, right?
13:57I think he's got some good linear burst.
14:00And it is a bit linear, but better to have it than not have it, right?
14:03I think he can sort of threaten offensive tackles with speed and athleticism.
14:07I'd love to see him become a more diverse and flexible rusher.
14:11I think there are certainly opportunities to expand his arsenal and add something to his game
14:16so it's not somewhat similar on a snap-by-snap basis.
14:20But they're not going to ask him to play every down, right?
14:22He's athletic.
14:23He can do some things for them in certain personnel packages.
14:26And if he can kind of, you know, get things going and attack this opportunity with vigor and effort,
14:32then I can certainly see a pathway for him developing into a contributor.
14:36Because, again, love the length, love some of the things that he does with the athleticism.
14:40But, you know, got to get going in the right direction.
14:42So, when I talk to a real draft guy, I could go deep and really nerd out on this stuff.
14:47I'm going to ask you one difficult one and then circle back with a very easy one.
14:53Undrafted kicker Drew Stevens out of Iowa.
14:55I don't know that you scouted or watched him, but he's got the leg.
14:59Can he get the accuracy to be an NFL kicker?
15:04Did I scout him?
15:05I have a great interview on the website right now with Drew Stevens that I did pre-draft.
15:09No way.
15:10I've got a fantastic, I've got, I will DM you.
15:13I've got a great interview that I did with Drew Stevens pre-draft where we talked about all that.
15:19I asked him about bouncing power with accuracy, how he goes about that.
15:24Like, I had a deeper conversation with an undrafted kicker than any draft analyst should probably have.
15:30I love it.
15:30On a website, I wrote, I did a great Q&A with Drew Stevens.
15:35I thought he was one of the better draftable kickers.
15:38I'll tell you this, he had a lot of interest pre-draft.
15:40I got to speak to him about that off the record a little bit.
15:43You can say it now because it doesn't matter anymore, but he had a lot of interest.
15:47He went to a bunch of, you know, workout, pro-day workouts, things of that nature.
15:52I thought a team was going to draft him.
15:54I think that's big for Washington to get him where they did.
15:57Instead, I totally see a universe out there where he develops and becomes an NFL-caliber starting kicker.
16:04There's only 32 of those jobs in the league, right?
16:06There's not a lot of them.
16:07But I like Drew.
16:09A couple of things he's got to work on.
16:10But, you know, I think they've got a good special teams coach down there in Washington.
16:14He'll be able to compete this offseason, right?
16:16Like, you know, preseason training camp will have lots of opportunities.
16:20Big leg, like you said, probably got to be a bit more accurate.
16:23But in all honesty, like, you look at numbers from college, we make this mistake a lot.
16:28There's really no predicting.
16:29Like, sometimes you'll see a 75% college kicker become an 88%, right, like, success rate in the NFL.
16:36And at the same time, you'll see a guy like, well, who was it?
16:39Was it Robert Aguilar a couple years ago, like, out of FSU, Tampa Bay?
16:42You'll see a 90% college kicker become a 73% kicker in the NFL.
16:46It really is, you know, the mental makeup, the repetition, the reps, handling the pressure.
16:52I think that probably plays a much bigger role than we think it does when it comes –
16:56and that's why it's so unpredictable, looking at, you know, college to the pros.
17:00So, I like Drew Stevens, totally see it for him.
17:03I like the fact he's undrafted.
17:05I have a very dim view of spending a single draft pick on a kicker.
17:10I agree.
17:10This year, there's only one guy –
17:12Yeah, only one guy taken.
17:14That was Trey Smack by the Packers.
17:16All-time name.
17:16All-time name.
17:17Yeah.
17:18And, you know, it's just these guys, they are kind of expendable,
17:22and they're weird in terms of who develops into a reliable pro leg.
17:28My theory with college kickers, it's the only position in football that's harder in college than it is in the
17:34pros.
17:35Because of the hashes?
17:36The hashes are one.
17:37The ball's different, too, you know.
17:38The operation is never as clean as it is in the NFL.
17:41The operation is –
17:43The long stabber to the holder in the NFL is –
17:45The operation in college is a wild ride every single time.
17:49So, that's exciting about Stevens.
17:51I got to talk to him at rookie minicamp, and he told us on the record he had calls from
17:56the Titans and the Bills.
17:57He didn't want to go to the Bills because Bass is obviously an institution there.
18:02But, to me, it seemed like he picked Washington, and he didn't seem cocky at all,
18:07but he feels he can come in and win this job, and that's why he wanted this job.
18:11The last one, you seem very bullish about Carnell Tate kind of immediately in Tennessee with Cam Ward.
18:20Obviously, Tate had a hell of a year at Ohio State.
18:22All the measurables are there.
18:24What makes you think he could hit big right away for the Titans?
18:29Well, I like the situation he's landed in.
18:31You know, number one, Brian Dable is his offensive coordinator.
18:35I think that's great.
18:36I mean, you see what Brian Dable did with Malik Nabors a couple of years ago as a rookie wide
18:40out.
18:40He's got a pretty good track record, right?
18:42Got a lot of Stephon Diggs in Buffalo.
18:44Even a guy like Gabe Davis, who made money that he probably kind of outperformed in Buffalo,
18:51overproduced, if you will.
18:53Cam Ward, I think, is trying to take a big year or two steps.
18:56But I thought the world of how Cam Ward played last year didn't get a lot of attention, I understand.
19:01No primetime games.
19:02They were a terrible football team.
19:04He had three different head coach and play caller combinations, which is almost unheard of,
19:09during his rookie year, and his top two wide outs were day three picks.
19:13I thought, for everything that he's faced, I thought Cam Ward had a really strong rookie year.
19:17I think he's going to take a huge step in year two under a much better coaching staff.
19:21And with Brian Dable as coordinator, you watch Tate on tape.
19:25He was my number one ranked wide receiver the whole way.
19:28Pre-draft process, and I'm glad it kind of played out that way.
19:32There's a lot to like.
19:34He didn't have one recorded drop at Ohio State last year, by the way.
19:37He's got some of the most reliable hands I think I've ever seen.
19:40Honestly, or at least his last five, ten drafts.
19:42Not one recorded drop.
19:44They're huge.
19:45You've seen his hands.
19:47They're massive.
19:48He engulfs everything thrown his way.
19:50He's big.
19:51I think he's got enough vertical speed.
19:53He makes contested catches, but he's also a route-running technician underneath.
19:58And I think the commanders would have taken him at seven if he was there.
20:01In all honesty, I really do.
20:03I think they went into this draft hoping they could get a receiver opposite, you know, Terry.
20:07But I do.
20:08I think the world of Cardinal Tate, and I love the situation with Cam Ward and Brian Dable.
20:12I think it's probably being underrated because they're the Tennessee Titans.
20:16It's going to be fun to watch.
20:17Hey, Justin, thank you for the time, dude.
20:19Really appreciate it.
20:21Pleasure is all mine.
20:22You know where to find me.
20:23All right, man.
20:23Take care.
20:24Everybody give him a follow at JustinM underscore NFL.
20:27Do you know anything about this undrafted kicker?
20:30These draft dudes do I know anything?
20:32I've got an hour podcast with them.
20:34Bro, these draft dudes that are like...
20:37I know.
20:37It's what they do.
20:38It's crazy.
20:39God bless him for that, by the way.
20:41Good booking right there, Stallion.
20:42I enjoyed talking with him.
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