- 6 weeks ago
Nick Baumgarnder joins the program to preview the biggest stories surrounding the first round of the NFL Draft.
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00:28Joining us, I'm a little rusty.
00:30Joining us now is our friend Nick Baumgartner from The Athletic.
00:34Nick, what's up, dude?
00:35How are you?
00:36Good, fellas.
00:36How are you?
00:37Doing well, man.
00:38How you feeling?
00:39I know you are busy this time of year, Nick.
00:42Yeah.
00:44Let's have a discussion about where we are one week out from the draft
00:49and kind of the, this gets to be really silly season.
00:52You've got a lot of people honestly putting out bad information,
00:57trying to generate lots of different things.
01:01So, where do you think we are right now?
01:04That's exactly where we are right now.
01:05I think you're in the ladder.
01:07You know, it's interesting to me, like, NFL teams are still going through scouting.
01:15They're still adjusting boards, you know, and that will continue up until draft day.
01:21That's real, right?
01:22So, you know, when people say, you know, oh, you know, some things are changing or this,
01:27you know, some of that can be accurate.
01:30But, like, the larger picture stuff, like the top 40 players, the top 20 players, no.
01:36They're not, they know who those guys are.
01:38You know what I mean?
01:38Like, the stuff that they're messing with is back-end stuff.
01:42It's stuff that you don't really, that's not interesting, quite frankly, right?
01:45So, we're at the point where agents begin to posture and jockey for position for their,
01:51that's all this is.
01:52You know, usually this time of year, Will, all the crazy stuff comes up and flies around.
01:56That, to me, is where I go with it.
01:58It's like, well, who's that player's agent and how connected is that agent?
02:01And I think that that's usually where you've got to go with it.
02:03So, the thing about, like, all kinds of information comes out,
02:07do you think any of these information that pops out off the field stuff
02:10that these teams don't have a clue of?
02:13Oh, no, yeah, like the Reuben Bain thing, right?
02:15Like, no, no, they're fully aware of all that stuff.
02:18The difference, like, it's always interesting to me, right?
02:20Like, that's something that I feel like NFL teams knew about not,
02:27and I think you heard a lot of people in the media claim that they knew about it yesterday,
02:30and I don't think that they did.
02:32I think that people were saying that they did,
02:34and I think that was something that just slipped through the cracks.
02:36That was something that got through a lot of what have you,
02:39and it comes out publicly after the fact.
02:40But the NFL will sit on stuff like that because, you know, they tell us all the time,
02:45it's not our job to report it, that's your job.
02:46So, you know, that's one of those things.
02:48You know, I look at it like this.
02:49If something had happened, like when it did, and then he does nothing else,
02:53it goes away because what happens when you're a repeat offender at doing things?
02:57You know what I'm saying?
02:58And I think that's the whole thing.
03:00He is.
03:00He had it twice.
03:01He had another incident last year.
03:03Yeah.
03:03So, like, I think certain levels, you get different reactions to it.
03:09Mm-hmm.
03:09Yeah.
03:10Absolutely.
03:10Absolutely.
03:11And I think that that's something for, so we had people yesterday that were like,
03:14do you think that changes Ruben Bain's stock?
03:15And I was like, no, I think Ruben Bain's stock is what it is because those teams have already
03:19made their decision on him.
03:21Yeah.
03:21Right?
03:21Some teams aren't going to care.
03:23Some teams are going to cross them off their board.
03:25And that's just how, you know, so it could affect where he lands in the draft, certainly,
03:30but, you know, his stock is going to be, it was already determined.
03:32I don't think that anything coming out now will change that.
03:34Yeah.
03:35I agree with you, Matt.
03:36But I don't think fans realize the level of kind of investigation that teams do, like
03:43the level of in-depth.
03:45I lived it.
03:46I can tell you.
03:47Yeah.
03:47Right.
03:48You know.
03:49Man.
03:49You know.
03:49They find everybody you've ever met.
03:51And they will talk to them.
03:52They talk to some of my elementary school teachers.
03:53I'm like, damn, I ain't a bit left there.
03:57They will uncover every rock, you know, like this is the NFL.
04:01This is a league where if you're talented and you're playing in, like, Japan, they're going
04:05to find you.
04:06You know what I mean?
04:06Like, that's just how it goes.
04:08So they'll figure it out.
04:09And then they know, you know, that there's another thing, too, is a lot of teams, you
04:13know, they knew about that going into the combine, and I'm sure they wanted to see how
04:15he acted about it.
04:16How, you know, not, you know, is he going to be up front about this?
04:19Is he going to hide it?
04:20For some teams, I think that was an issue.
04:22I don't think he was up front about it as much.
04:24Yeah.
04:24Yeah.
04:24And I think, I think that's the biggest issue with Bain, and I don't want to just harp on
04:29that.
04:29But in your last mock, I think you had the commanders taking Bain one week later.
04:35Or does that still sound right to you?
04:38You know, I still think that that's fine from a football standpoint.
04:41It's all about whether or not, you know, they're comfortable with him as a player, as
04:45a person.
04:45I mean, the only two instances that we've seen really at all of him having an issue is
04:52that right there are those two, you know, the, the, the one word that resulted in the
04:55death of the, of the individual.
04:57And then another incident where he got cited again there last year, there hasn't been anything
05:01else.
05:02And there was no reports really that Ruben Bain was a bad teammate or, you know, anything
05:07like this or a bad dude, you know, a bad person.
05:09There was none of that.
05:10Um, and you know, frankly, also, if you're willing to get into that lawsuit, um, it's
05:14pretty thin, quite honestly, you know, there's not a lot, you know, I'd, I'd be interested
05:17to see how, how far that actually went in court, uh, on top of everything else.
05:21So I'm not sure how much it actually does impact his, his status or did impact his status
05:27with teams.
05:28Uh, to me, I think it's just about, it's going to be about what do you think he could give
05:32you as a football player?
05:33I think that's going to be the bigger thing with him.
05:35I don't think this is like a Jalen Carter situation where that was, there were so many
05:38other things with Jalen Carter.
05:39It wasn't just the driving real fast stuff.
05:42He's not known to be the nicest fellow.
05:43No.
05:44Whereas Bain is known to be like an absolute leader.
05:47Yeah.
05:48And Bain's a, I think Bain's a pretty reserved guy for the most part, you know, and yeah,
05:52a leader by, by example, in a lot of ways to a pretty quiet guy in the field who just
05:55does his path, lets his path do the talking.
05:57So I think in that sense, I think he's still what he is, but you know, it's certainly something
06:01to, uh, that they've already probably put into their, uh, you know, uh, report on him.
06:06I, I should, I should say.
06:07So I, I, he'll be there.
06:08And it's one of those things where I still think Ruben Bain's range is going to be, I
06:12thought this the whole time.
06:13I mean, he could slide into the teens and it wouldn't shock me because there's going
06:16to be some teams that don't think, you know, due to the link concerns and everything else
06:19that they don't love that fit, you know, with him there.
06:22Dude, if he slides, I think it is because they're not exactly sure what position he plays
06:27in the NFL and they're not exactly sure if the arms are long enough and that's going
06:31to matter.
06:31I don't personally think it's going to be about the other stuff.
06:35And I think one thing, one thing you see with the posturing in the NFL at this point
06:39is let's say Bain slides to 17 and the lions take them right.
06:45There is probably a front office person telling some reporter out there like, Oh, we took them
06:50off our board, but you know who might've done that?
06:53Like Denver.
06:54Cause they know they don't have a first round game or like, like if you're the Seahawks,
07:00you know, you're not getting Bain.
07:02So sure.
07:02Yeah.
07:02He's not an outboard.
07:04We took him off.
07:05Exactly.
07:07There's no court.
07:08Like they got quarterback at the beginning of the draft and people have been talking
07:12about the kid from Alabama a little bit, but normally when you got quarterbacks, you
07:15got trades.
07:16Do you anticipate trades this year being that there aren't a lot of quarterbacks?
07:21So I think it'll be interesting.
07:22I think like on day two, I think there'll be a lot because there's so many good defenders
07:27in this class and those guys are going to slide down a little bit.
07:30Some of the, you know, there's so many good safeties, some good linebackers, you know,
07:34even good tight ends on the other side of the ball, but there's a lot of good specialty
07:37players like that.
07:38So I think that on day two, we'll see quite a bit of movement, but I also think, you
07:41know, up high there, the only thing that we would see, maybe I think any movement on
07:46would be maybe Jeremiah Love, if somebody wants to go jump ahead, maybe a contender
07:50later that wants to come up at a piece sliding and Caleb Downs, the other, the top, uh, the
07:55Ohio state safety.
07:56I think those two guys to me are the ones that if they slip a little bit and some team
08:01down in like the late teams, like you mentioned Detroit or somebody lower than that, maybe
08:04even that's a playoff team that wants to get like an impact piece wants to make a move.
08:09I could, I could see that maybe being a thing, but otherwise, other than that, I don't
08:12think there'll be too much because I think, like you said, that the quarterbacks always
08:16drive this and there's, there's only one this year and he's going one and there's really
08:19no mystery about that.
08:20So Simpson, I don't think it's maybe at the end of the first, I could see somebody trying
08:24to slip in, but not up high like that.
08:26No, not in the top 15.
08:27Yeah.
08:29It's just funny, whether it's the content game driving it or it's agent driven, like
08:35what you start to hear this last week is just so silly.
08:39Most of the time.
08:40Yeah.
08:41And I think you look back, you always look back and you're like, what were we thinking?
08:44Like, you know, a week or two later, you're like, what, what was that?
08:49Like, obviously that was wrong.
08:50Right.
08:50You know?
08:50Yeah.
08:51I wasn't crazy.
08:52That kind of thing.
08:52We've been doing this show for five years.
08:54I've known JP for about 15 and I've been, ever since I, I've met him, what I call this
08:59type of year.
09:00Lion season.
09:01Yeah.
09:03Can't believe half of the stuff you hear.
09:05Talking with our friend, Nick Baumgartner here on the Rude Guest Hotline.
09:09You can give Nick a follow at Nick Baumgartner, B-A-U-M-G-A-R-D-N-E-R.
09:14Check out all of his work in The Athletic, including his latest mock.
09:18Check out the beast from The Athletic.
09:20There is, there is no draft publication quite like The Beast.
09:23That thing is unbelievable.
09:25I always enjoy reading.
09:27I'm not even going to front, Nick.
09:28I don't read it all, but I sure as hell give it to someone ever.
09:32I know one person reads all of it.
09:34Outside of Dane, I guess.
09:36Dane reads it all and that's about it.
09:39Dane gets through it all, yeah.
09:41So, I'm going to ask you some percentages here, all right?
09:46What is the percentage chance Jeremiah Love is off the board before Washington picks at
09:51seven?
09:54Oh, man.
09:56I would say, it might be like 50-50, honestly.
10:02Like, it's tough because I'm not convinced that a team lower, the Chiefs are the one that
10:09drives this in my mind.
10:10You know, they went out and they signed Kenneth Walker, paid him big money, and I think it
10:12kind of came out like somebody asked him about Jeremiah Love, and it was like, I don't think
10:16he's going to make it to us at nine.
10:19And so, you know, I don't know if he's going to be there, but I also, he's a running back.
10:24And there's a lot of teams up there that could really use a lot of other stuff, like the
10:28Titans, or, you know, if he gets by the Titans, I think he's going to be there.
10:31That's the one that I wonder about.
10:33And the Giants, I also wonder about him, too, with the Giants, because I think that they're
10:37in a situation where he could really help everything that John Harbaugh is about and
10:40all that.
10:40But it's a hard one for me.
10:42I feel like it's almost 50-50.
10:43I feel like either those two teams, maybe a team wants to jump up.
10:47I don't know.
10:47But, like, the other part of me tugs and says he's a running back.
10:50Some of these people get nervous.
10:51Ashton Jeans, he went high.
10:52It didn't really, you know, quite work because they weren't ready for him.
10:55I mean, he had a nice year.
10:57He's going to be a good player.
10:58But they weren't quite ready for him, and it didn't explode.
11:00So, it's hard to say.
11:01But I think it's possible that he could be there for sure.
11:04Pass rushes have been what people talk about with Bailey, Bain, and all those guys up front.
11:10What's the other position you think can be as, at the end of the draft, we go, well, damn,
11:15they were to run on that.
11:17Yeah, there's a couple.
11:18I mentioned those guys on defense.
11:20Safety and linebacker are really, really deep and really special this year.
11:23Really the whole defensive side of the ball.
11:25But the one on offense, I think, that's really deep, deeper than we've seen in some time.
11:29And, you know, deeper certainly than we've seen, I think, in the last maybe five to ten years,
11:34anyways, tight end.
11:36There are guys all the way.
11:37It's not super top-heavy, but there are guys all the way through day three.
11:44That'll be there in the seventh round.
11:46That I think are good enough to go play on a team, make a team, and help a team.
11:50Like, there'll be some UDFAs in this tight end class that'll make a team and be an impact player somewhere.
11:55Because two things, there are a lot of teams out there that are now expanding their usage of the position.
12:00That started last year with the Rams a little bit more.
12:03But that's been a thing that's kind of been going.
12:05And, like, so there's more available jobs.
12:07And these guys are dudes.
12:09I mean, like, there is a lot of them all the way through.
12:12And this has just been a thing that's kind of been building over the last several years.
12:14We've seen more good tight ends come through college.
12:18More colleges know what to do with them.
12:19And more NFL teams have embraced the spot.
12:21So I think tight end is going to be the one this year that we look at.
12:24That's 7-0-7, bro.
12:25They play that, too.
12:26And it's become like a sexy position.
12:28You know what I mean?
12:29Yeah, exactly.
12:30It's turning into that.
12:31It's totally changed.
12:32And I think you see some of these freak show athletes that maybe would have been a linebacker or even
12:37a quarterback.
12:38100%.
12:38And now they're tight ends.
12:41This might be the trickiest question, Nick.
12:45We all know it's going to be Mendoza 1 to the Raiders.
12:48Who goes 2?
12:51Yeah, so for me, it's been, for the Jets, I think it has to be best player available.
12:55And I think all things, you know, the indications are Arville Reese from Ohio State.
13:00I mean, maybe David Bailey, the other edge there from Texas Tech.
13:03But I think Arville Reese, you know, given his youth, the versatility you could maybe get out of him.
13:08To me, he is the closest prospect I've seen, the closest to Micah Parsons since Micah Parsons.
13:15I mean, he's not Micah, but he's built almost exactly like that, more so than Carter was last year, I
13:21think, in some ways.
13:22He's got that just absolute burst off the ball.
13:26He can get into your chest and just kind of rip right through a guy the way that Micah does
13:29with that strength.
13:30And I think that he could just move all over the place and in time be a real dominant force
13:34for somebody up front.
13:36So, for me, I think that the Jets have to be best player available almost the whole way through.
13:39They can't think about the quarterback thing.
13:41They have a lot of picks next year, too.
13:43They can worry about that then.
13:44They need to rebuild the whole roster because the whole thing's kind of rotted out.
13:47So, that's kind of where I'm at.
13:48I feel like those two edges might go 2 and 3.
13:51Reese and then maybe Bailey to the Cardinals are at 3.
13:53What are your thoughts on Sonny Stiles?
13:55I mean, he was the darling of the combine.
13:59I mean, the guy can run.
14:01He jumps.
14:01He's super athletic.
14:02And a lot of coaches talk about that versatility.
14:06Yeah.
14:07Yeah.
14:08And, you know, Sonny Stiles also, when you watch the tape, I think that's more than just the combine with
14:13him.
14:13Because I think that you see over the years, there's been a lot of guys that have gone through there
14:16and ripped it up.
14:16So, Isaiah Simmons from Clemson, it never quite worked out.
14:21And I would also argue, Isaiah Simmons came through at a time, had similar athletic traits.
14:26He was 6'4", 6'5", 230, maybe a little bit lighter than Sonny.
14:30But he ran about the same, jumped about the same.
14:32Came in and they tried to play him at linebacker and it didn't really work because the NFL, I don't
14:35think, was ready for the movement and the hybrid, you know, sort of position.
14:40What we saw last year with Nicky Manwari in Seattle, I think, is what we're going to end up seeing
14:44a lot of from Sonny Stiles.
14:45Is he's going to be a guy who plays in the box, plays in the weak side linebacker spot, but
14:50also kind of floats out, does some coverage stuff, and then even goes up front and rushes the passer a
14:54little bit, too.
14:55I think he's going to be a guy that's a true X-factor.
14:58And that's why I thought maybe Tennessee takes him there at four because Sala, you know, the new head coach
15:02there, I think he's a creative defensive guy.
15:05You know, you let him, you let Stiles get in there and move around and do some different things.
15:09And I think that's why, when you watch the tape, he is a legit former safety that played safety in
15:14college and learned how to play linebacker.
15:15So he can do anything.
15:16Like, there's really not much he can't do.
15:18And I think that the NFL team that figures out how to unlock that is going to be the one
15:21that really knocks it out of the park there.
15:23Totally.
15:24Absolutely.
15:25We're talking with our friend Nick Baumgartner here on the Rude Guest Hotline.
15:29Make sure you read all of Nick's work in the Athletic Draft Expert.
15:32You can follow him on X at Nick Baumgartner, B-A-U-M-G-A-R-D-N-E-R.
15:38Where are you on Carnell Tate's evaluation and where he goes in the draft?
15:44Yeah, I think he is still receiver one for me, you know, and I say that because Jordan Tyson's medical
15:51concerns push him down a little bit.
15:54If Tyson was healthier, I think he would probably be one.
15:57Tate would be two.
15:58However, I would still have Tate in the top 12, I think, overall at the end of the day.
16:02And I still think he could maybe even flirt with the top 10, depending on if somebody likes him enough.
16:07I didn't think the 40 was that big of a deal.
16:09I think that most teams knew that he wasn't a burner, you know, going into the watch the tape.
16:14It's very similar to what Tate McMillan went through last year when he went before he went to the Panthers
16:20and everybody kind of worried about, you know, he ran that 4-5, whatever it was, at his pro day
16:24and at the combine.
16:25And I think that that's kind of similar to what we've seen here.
16:27Tate's a 20-year-old receiver who's played both sides.
16:30He's played X.
16:30He's played Z.
16:31I think he can play some in the slot.
16:32He's really athletic.
16:33He can sink and explode.
16:35Really good in the air.
16:36He got a lot better last year.
16:38He's really competitive.
16:39A good dude.
16:39Like, teammates loved him.
16:41And I thought the biggest thing for me is, look, he played opposite Jeremiah Smith and could have just coasted
16:46and could have been one of those guys who's like, whatever, I'm always one-on-one, I don't care.
16:49But he didn't.
16:50He, like, busted tail and got a lot better and stood out on his own.
16:55And I thought that was telling.
16:56So I think he's going to be a good player.
16:57And I think most NFL teams kind of agree with that.
16:59What is he, 6'2", right?
17:01Yeah, I think he's 6'3".
17:02Yeah, because when you, I think, they've said it all, I know in the past it was, the guy that's
17:076'3", 6'2",
17:09and if you get up past that, you don't need to run 4'1", 4'2", 4'3".
17:13If you're 4'5", that's enough because you're big enough to show separation anyway.
17:18Yes, people forget that.
17:20The separation is the key, yes.
17:21But people forget that physicality is so much more important as a receiver than anyone ever understands.
17:27Not just with the get-off, but also at the top of a route.
17:30I've got to be able to separate from you at the top of a route.
17:32And I can't just 4'2", speed and do anything if you're 2'10", and you're running a 4'5",
17:37you're going to be able to bear down on me.
17:38So it's so much.
17:40The NFL is about power.
17:41I mean, that's really every position.
17:43I think receiver people tend to forget that, yes, speed is super important.
17:46I'm not going to say it's not, but your power tends to get lost sometimes in that discussion as well.
17:50And Tate certainly has that.
17:52And so does Jordan Tyson as well.
17:53Absolutely.
17:53And you think about, like, Darius Hayward-Bey and John Ross and some of these, like, guys that run these
17:58up.
17:58Oh, my God, yeah, John Ross.
17:59Everybody's not Randy Moss.
18:01Just because you see Russell.
18:026'4", run 4'2".
18:05If you can't get off press coverage, it doesn't matter what your 40 time is.
18:10Yeah, because you never get to get top speed anyway.
18:13No, right.
18:13Last thing, Nick, for me, how much, if at all, stock do you put into what Ohio State wide receivers
18:22are producing at the NFL level when you're evaluating a dude like Carnell Tate?
18:27I think that you put some in there based on the culture that has developed, you know, through there.
18:33Because I think you put enough in it.
18:35Because those guys go to Ohio State, I think, in the culture that's developed there,
18:39they go there to challenge themselves.
18:40I think a lot of times you see guys, well, you know, there's another good receiver there.
18:44I don't want to go there.
18:45Another good player in my position, I don't want to go there.
18:47That's not what really happens at Ohio State.
18:49They seem to go there and really stack talent on talent, and nobody worries about it.
18:53And they're not afraid.
18:54Like, Garrett Wilson, I think, I feel like was kind of one of the first guys to do that.
18:58And we've seen him.
18:59I mean, he has gone through some horrible times with the Jets, and he still gets it done.
19:04Like, he is still a guy who shows up every day and works.
19:07At Buka, last year, came in right away, was a pro, perfect, you know, right out of Jackson.
19:13When he got healthy, everybody saw what he was able to do.
19:15So I think that he put a lot into it.
19:17Because, yes, exactly.
19:19Those guys are detail-oriented.
19:21They're ready to play.
19:22They're serious.
19:23And, you know, I think Tate is right in there with everybody else.
19:26And I think that that's certainly a factor.
19:28Nick, appreciate your time, man.
19:29Enjoy the next week.
19:31All right, fellas.
19:31Take care.
19:32All right, man.
19:32Take care.
19:33Nick Baumgartner from The Athletic.
19:34Give him a follow at Nick Baumgartner.
19:36Check out all of his work in The Athletic.
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