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NFL Draft analyst Tony Pauline joins the program to talk the latest headlines around the draft with a week to go.
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00:00Zabe, I'm going to ask you this.
00:01I have paid close attention to Tony Pauline leading up to the draft for a number of seasons,
00:06and do you know what made me a Tony Pauline believer?
00:10I bet you we had a hit on a guy that nobody else was talking about.
00:15He was the only dude in 2018 to say to Ron Payne to the Skins, and you nailed that, sir.
00:20And I have stuck with that ever since.
00:23Tony, what do you got on this draft, dude?
00:25We know what's happening at one.
00:26What the hell happens after that?
00:28Yeah, you know, it's kind of bizarre.
00:30I think we know we have a pretty good sense as to the players that are going to be selected
00:37in the top ten.
00:38It's just the order.
00:39And, I mean, it really starts at number two with the Jets.
00:42A lot of people think, including myself, the pick should be Arbel Reese.
00:46There's noise that they could take David Bailey.
00:48Then you've got Arizona, who also wants an edge rusher.
00:52The Titans with Robert Sala.
00:54You would think defense, but there's a lot of noise out there about Jeremiah Love.
00:58So, you know, it's going to be kind of exciting.
01:01I think, you know, the Giants now, it looks like, could be Caleb Downs.
01:06Caleb Downs is one.
01:08Sonny Stiles is one A.
01:11So, it's going to make for a very interesting evening next Thursday.
01:14Is there anybody that is expected to go in the top six that might fall that would make the commanders
01:24do a serious double-take on what is on their board?
01:29I don't think David Bailey's falling.
01:31I don't think Sonny Stiles is going to fall.
01:34I think Sonny Stiles is there at six.
01:37I think the Browns will look to trade down for a team that wants to move up to get Sonny
01:42Stiles.
01:42I've seen the Browns trade down.
01:45Where is this coming from?
01:46You're not the only one that says this.
01:47I'm curious.
01:48I reported it last week.
01:49I reported it last week that they would like to move down a couple of slots because they feel like
01:55they're in no man's land at six.
01:57They want Spencer for no to play left tackle.
02:00They don't know if they can take him at six.
02:02They really don't believe Carnell Tate is worth the sixth pick of the draft.
02:06So, if they can move down a few slots like they did last year, get some extra choices, and then
02:11get the player that they want that fits a need, that's a perfect plan for them.
02:15So, if they're in no man's land at six, are the commanders in that same no man's land, or is
02:21it different because of their needs?
02:23No, I think there'll be good players there for the commanders.
02:26I mean, would they consider Mansoor Delaney there with the needed cornerback?
02:31You know, would they consider Reuben Bain there because of the needed edge rusher?
02:34If Jeremiah Love falls down, as I said earlier this week, I mean, that's a player that they really covet.
02:39So, I think the commanders are actually in a very good position, you could say, because they have a bunch
02:45of needs.
02:45But I think it's also a situation where the needs fit the value at that selection.
02:52Ah, okay.
02:53So, Tony, you had a report earlier this week, and everybody should check out your work.
02:59Give Tony a follow, at Tony Pauline, P-A-U-L-I-N-E.
03:04You had a report earlier this week how much the commanders like Jeremiah Love.
03:08I was in Ashburn yesterday for Adam Peters' pre-draft press conference where he said,
03:13more likely than not, we're going to stay at seven, make the pick.
03:16Assuming they stay at seven, do you think it'll be Love?
03:18Do you think he gets there?
03:19Do you think Washington pulls the trigger on a top-ten running back?
03:23I mean, Love would have to get past Tennessee.
03:26Love would have to get past the Giants, which I think is a possibility.
03:30And, yeah, I mean, why not?
03:32They've gone with running back by committee.
03:35You want to make Jaden Daniels, you know, more lethal.
03:39You want to get him back to where he was as a rookie.
03:41You've got to give him more weapons.
03:43And Jeremiah Love is not just the guy you hand the ball off to.
03:46He's an exceptional pass catcher out of the backfield.
03:49He's also a terrific blocker.
03:51So, you know, you've got to protect Jaden Daniels.
03:56Jeremiah Love can do that on those blitzes.
03:58So I think he fills a variety of roles.
04:00You've got the franchise quarterback.
04:02You want to improve the franchise quarterback and strengthen him by helping protect him
04:07and giving him more weapons.
04:08And even though he's a running back, Jeremiah Love is a weapon in a variety of ways.
04:14What makes style so good?
04:17Versatility.
04:18I mean, number one, the athleticism, the size, the growth potential.
04:22Former safety.
04:23A guy who's an off-ball linebacker that covers a tremendous amount of area.
04:28He's great in pursuit.
04:30He's terrific in coverage.
04:31Has no problem running downfield with tight ends or running backs.
04:35You can use him in a man coverage.
04:36You can use him in zone.
04:38Not a bad blitzer.
04:39You know, people say he's not a good pass catcher.
04:42He really wasn't asked to do that at Ohio State.
04:45Like, Arvell Reese wasn't really asked to because they play a four-man front.
04:48They get a lot of pressure up front with those four men.
04:50So, I think the thing with Stiles is he's an incredible app who's a developing football player
04:56who has tremendous upside and the bloodlines as well.
05:00So, Stiles is a good player now that could be an exceptional player two or three years down the road.
05:04Is there a comp of a former safety moving to linebacker that you can cling on to to say this
05:10guy did it?
05:13I mean, Erlach is the opposite, right?
05:14Not to the level that I expect Stiles.
05:15Yeah, I was going to say Erlach was one of them.
05:18I mean, but he was even bigger.
05:21And that was a completely different time.
05:24I mean, I guess that would be comparable.
05:28But even with Stiles, I think when you compare the two, I think that Stiles is the better athlete.
05:33Yeah.
05:33I know this.
05:34I love guys that run.
05:36Yeah.
05:37Guys that run, especially at that position.
05:39I can see Stiles just erasing plays from all over at all different angles, which is a great thing.
05:47You know, linebackers, not as sexy as it was, you know, 15, 20 years ago.
05:51But guys that put ball carriers on the ground, pretty useful.
05:56And the thing about Stiles is, you know, he's not just 40 fans.
06:00He's football fans.
06:01Right.
06:01And people get all tied up in knots because they see these great 40 times at the Combine.
06:06Stiles is fast on film.
06:07You knew that beforehand.
06:08Maybe you didn't expect him to run a 4.46 at 244 pounds.
06:11But, man, he is fast when the equipment is on and when the helmet's on his head.
06:15And he's got to run down ball handlers.
06:17Probably because he's diagnosing quicker, a beat quicker than guys, right?
06:21Football IQ.
06:23Like I said, the bloodlines in that family help a lot.
06:27Talking with Tony Pauline here from Essentially Sports.
06:29You can give him a follow at Tony Pauline.
06:31Kind enough to join us on the Rude Guest Hotline.
06:34Tony, I want to ask you a little bit about the receivers here.
06:37Because you mentioned Cleveland might want to move back.
06:40You know, Peters in Washington has talked about maybe the desire to move back,
06:45not being matched with the actual opportunity to move back.
06:48What do you make of this receiver class?
06:51College football receivers have gotten to be so damn good.
06:54I believe the proliferation of 7-on-7 and, you know, spring football and stuff has really helped with that.
07:01But this receiver class does not have one of these true alphas.
07:04There's no Marvin Harrison Jr.
07:06There's no Jamar Chase.
07:07What do you make of these guys that will go in the first round but that don't necessarily have the
07:12same scouting
07:13and evaluations as some of the studs of these past, you know, two, three, five years?
07:19I like the receivers in this year's draft, especially at the top.
07:22I think there's excellent depth.
07:24I think there's no, you know, I think these guys are going to take a bit of time before they
07:30become true number one receivers.
07:32I think they're mostly like very good number two receivers.
07:35I think any receiver that's selected in the top ten, as far as I'm concerned, is going to be overdrafted.
07:42I mean, most of these guys deserve to be from picks 12 on.
07:46And it's not just the first round.
07:48I mean, everybody concentrates on Cardinal Tate, Jordan Tyson, and Mekhi Lemon.
07:52And I know the commanders have a limited number of picks.
07:56You'll be able to get good receivers in the third round.
07:59I mean, you top in the third round, maybe Chris Brazel, Tennessee there.
08:05Jeremy Bernard of Alabama could be there.
08:07Ted Hurst of Georgia State.
08:08You're going to be able to get a good receiver in round three.
08:11So you don't have to reach for one at the top of round one when you can get a real
08:16good athletic developmental receiver that may just take a little bit more time before he's NFL ready,
08:22but has a tremendous amount of upside.
08:24Two guys I like a lot you mentioned, Ted Hurst.
08:28I think if Ted Hurst, you know, played at Georgia instead of Georgia Southern, he's probably a first-round pick.
08:33And then Chris Bell was an absolute monster.
08:36Now he's coming off the knee injury.
08:37What do you think of those two players?
08:40I like Chris Bell a lot.
08:42If Chris Bell hadn't gotten hurt, we're probably talking about him as the fourth receiver in the draft and another
08:48first-round receiver.
08:51The thing with Chris Bell is if you're looking to win in 2026, I don't know if you're going to
08:57take Chris Bell.
08:58Chris Bell is a guy that even with the injury, even the fact that he's ahead of schedule physically, I
09:04don't know how long it's going to be before he's in football shape,
09:06but I think if you're a team that's, you know, hoping to win in 2027, 2028, maybe you're looking at
09:12Chris Bell somewhere in the top part of round two.
09:15Ted Hurst, he's a big, long receiver.
09:18He's got sure hands.
09:20He was incredibly productive.
09:22He didn't look like he was out of sorts during senior bowl practice.
09:26And then he goes to the combine.
09:27He runs a 4-4-2.
09:28And that's important because Ted Hurst was considered a 4-5-5 guy.
09:33And when he goes and he runs a 4-4-2, you know he has that innate speed.
09:37It's just a matter of coaching him to transition that speed onto the football field.
09:41Six-foot-four, 206 pounds.
09:43He plays big football.
09:45He's got soft, reliable hands.
09:47Love his upside.
09:48I know that the Philadelphia Eagles like him in round two.
09:51So if there's a trade made on draft night for A.J. Brown, Ted Hurst could be going to the
09:57Eagles in the second round.
09:58What is the consistent difference between teams, Tony, that do the draft well versus teams that just bungle this thing
10:08year after year?
10:09What's the major difference?
10:11Teams that bungle it year after year are always looking for quarterbacks.
10:15I mean, you look at the top of the draft, the Arizona Cardinals, the New York Jets, the Cleveland Browns.
10:20I mean, they're always looking for quarterbacks, and they're always expending a lot of early draft capital on quarterbacks that
10:30never pan out, and it's a vicious circle.
10:34Are they reaching, do you think, at quarterback because they're so starving for a guy?
10:41I think when it comes to the quarterback, it's as much they don't have proper coaches in there and proper
10:46people to develop the quarterbacks.
10:48I mean, listen, we could have said the same thing about the commanders for all those years, right?
10:53Sure.
10:53They finally got the right staff in place.
10:55They got the right culture in there.
10:57They took a quarterback with the second pick of the draft, and the guy looked like a winner right from
11:02the get-go.
11:02So I think, you know, they reach because of need, and I think the hard salary cap makes these guys,
11:10the first-round picks, a lot more expendable now than, you know, selections 15, 20 years ago.
11:17But I think it's more an organizational thing.
11:21It's no coincidence, you know, the Kyle Shanahan, the Andy Reeds, you know, we'll go on and on.
11:29The same people are able to develop quarterbacks while the franchises like the Browns, like the Jets, like the Cardinals,
11:37are always searching to get a signal caller either from the draft or, you know, a veteran quarterback that they
11:43can't get to play up the snuff.
11:47It's going to be a really interesting draft.
11:50Now, if you talk about the quarterbacks, right, quarterbacks get overdrafted.
11:53We all know that.
11:54Luckily for Washington, this isn't a debate we have to have.
11:58Thank God.
11:58For far too many years, we had really bad quarterback debates, you know, talking ourselves into EJ.
12:04Colt Brennan.
12:05Yeah, exactly.
12:06But, Tony, I'm curious, with the Ty Simpson discourse, where do you think he actually ends up going?
12:13I think he's going to be a late first-round pick.
12:15I think a team drafting him in the late first round, maybe the Browns with that second selection, I don't
12:22think the Steelers are going to take him, could roll the dice on Ty Simpson.
12:26I think a team, as I reported today, Arizona could trade.
12:29If we go back to Arizona and Cleveland, right, those teams that always need a quarterback, could trade back up
12:34into the bottom part of round one and draft Ty Simpson.
12:36I mean, there are a lot of things to like about Ty Simpson's game.
12:40He's accurate.
12:41For the most part, he makes good decisions.
12:43He's got a decent arm.
12:46And there are some things to be concerned about.
12:48I mean, he only started one year, which is well-known.
12:51My concern about him is he actually played better football in September and October than he did in November and
12:57December.
12:58That's always a red flag for me.
13:00So it's a situation with Ty Simpson that if you draft him, you know, you better be very patient with
13:06him.
13:06He's an over-aged prospect, which I don't necessarily think is a bad thing at the quarterback position.
13:12You hope that it brings maturity.
13:14I do think he is a lock first-round pick.
13:17I would be surprised if when Thursday night is over, he is still on the board and available.
13:23I tend to agree with you there.
13:24Talking with our friend Tony Pauline here on the Rude Guest Hotline.
13:27Rude makes the most reliable HVAC equipment in the DMV.
13:31If it ain't Rude, it ain't right.
13:33Tony, I'm curious.
13:35I asked you about the receiver position earlier.
13:37What do you think of Lemon at a USC?
13:39I like him a lot.
13:40I think if Washington was to move down, maybe from 7 to, say, it's 16 with the Jets.
13:47I don't know if Lemon's still there, but I would love that kind of pick.
13:51What do you think of him as a pro prospect?
13:53I like with Kyle Lemon a lot.
13:55Doesn't have great size, is under 6 foot tall, just over 190 pounds, but he plays big physical football.
14:02I mean, he wants the ball.
14:04He basically battles people, comes away with the contested grab, runs good routes, sort of a bigger version of Jordan
14:11Addison, if you will.
14:12A guy who doesn't separate through great speed, but he separates through great route running.
14:17Fundamentally sound, the way he extends and snatches the ball out of the air with his hands.
14:22And I just like his ferocity, really the way he attacks and the way his competitiveness.
14:29I would agree with you.
14:30I mean, I think the Rams are a perfect spot for Makai Lemon.
14:34I think it's a great system fit, and they need a receiver.
14:38But I think Makai Lemon, if he's able to stay healthy, he's going to be a real good wide out
14:42on Sunday.
14:44For sure.
14:45Any surprises you think coming in this draft?
14:47I know there's a ton of buzz about the UCF edge rusher, I believe.
14:52Does he crack top 20?
14:55I would be shocked if he's a first-round pick.
14:58You're talking about Malachi Lawrence.
15:00Yeah, Lawrence.
15:00Big athletic guy out of central Florida.
15:04Showed well at the combine.
15:05Didn't have great production.
15:07Really cheesed off a lot of people at his pro day.
15:10People went to the pro day to watch him work out, do position drills, and he stood on the sidelines
15:15in sweats and did absolutely nothing.
15:18At his own pro day?
15:20Yep.
15:21And that really left the back.
15:23Why?
15:23I know teams.
15:24I set up my own pro day.
15:26Talk to his agent.
15:29I don't know why.
15:29I mean, I saw that with the Juan Jones a couple of years ago to Ohio State.
15:33Just stood on the sidelines.
15:34Wouldn't get measured.
15:35Wouldn't do anything.
15:36And really, these guys need to know the lead-up to the draft is the most important job interview of
15:42their life.
15:43Okay?
15:43Because these teams are going to spend hundreds of thousands, if not tens of billions of dollars.
15:48And that really, really turned a lot of people off.
15:51I think if there is a surprise first-round pick, keep an eye on Keelan Rutledge of Georgia Tech.
15:57He's building a lot of steam.
15:59People feel that, unlike Emmanuel Pregnant of Oregon, who I like, Keelan Rutledge can play the right guard position, the
16:05all-important right guard position.
16:07He brings that mentality.
16:08He's a guy who goes hard.
16:09He's also smart.
16:11You know, he's a little bit of everything, Keelan Rutledge.
16:15And Chris Johnson, the cornerback from San Diego State.
16:19A lot of people think that he's definitely going to be a late first-round pick.
16:22Over six-foot tall.
16:24Athletic.
16:25Didn't seem out of sorts at the senior bowl.
16:28Tested well at the combine.
16:29He's got a high upside.
16:30Depending on what Seattle does, they need a cornerback.
16:33They like those bigger, physical, athletic cornerbacks.
16:35He fits the mold.
16:36I read about the San Diego State corner from Essentially Sports in your column this morning.
16:41Tony, thank you for the time, dude.
16:43We'll be paying attention over the next week.
16:46Thanks for having me.
16:47Enjoy the draft.
16:48All right.
16:48All right.
16:49Tony Pauline.
16:50Tony Pauline.
16:50Essentially Sports.
16:53Give him a follow at Tony Pauline.
16:55Thanks for having me.
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