00:00What began as a distant conflict in West Asia is now exposing the growing limits of traditional
00:07multilateral institutions as tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran continue to
00:14escalate. For ASEAN, the consequences are immediate because Southeast Asia remains
00:20heavily dependent on energy imports moving through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea,
00:25and the wider Indian Ocean. But the risks extend beyond oil and gas, as critical supplies such as
00:32fertilizers, helium, sulfur, and industrial feedstock used in semiconductor production also
00:39pass through these maritime choke points. When shipping costs rise and supply chains tighten,
00:45the effects quickly spread through Southeast Asia through inflation, food insecurity,
00:50and manufacturing disruptions. That is why the crisis is forcing ASEAN to rethink whether large
00:57multilateral institutions can still respond effectively during periods of geopolitical
01:03instability. The United Nations Security Council remains constrained by veto politics, while even
01:10within ASEAN itself, the principle of consensus can sometimes slow urgent decision-making. During
01:18periods of stability such caution may preserve unity, but during systemic crises excessive proceduralism can
01:26become a strategic weakness. This is where minilateralism is gaining importance through smaller and more
01:33flexible coalitions focused on practical objectives without requiring universal consensus. Importantly,
01:41this does not mean abandoning ASEAN centrality, but rather adapting regional cooperation to survive an
01:49increasingly fragmented global order. In many ways, ASEAN has already experimented with this model
01:56through trilateral cooperation between Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines against piracy and terrorism in the
02:04Sulu-Sulawesi seas. Similarly, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia have coordinated maritime security in the
02:13Straits of Melaka for years through practical and targeted cooperation. As the war in West Asia drags on,
02:21ASEAN members continue to face different strategic priorities ranging from maritime security and financial
02:27resilience to industrialization to industrialization, energy stability, and food security. In this new
02:34strategic environment where globalization alone can no longer guarantee stability, minilateralism may no
02:42longer be just an option for ASEAN, but an emerging necessity. For the full analysis, read Farkimbing's
02:49opinion piece for ASEAN, minilateralism more practical than multilateralism on FMT.
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