00:00Leslie Venjamiri joins us. She's president and CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs but in New York with
00:06us on set. Great to have you here Leslie. Thanks for having me. I was I was looking at the
00:12sort of peace talks if you can even call them that yesterday and wondering if this administration isn't just punting
00:19until Thursday when President Trump is in Beijing and he can ask Xi for a little help here. Yeah I
00:26mean President Trump goes to China wanting to look very strong and in fact as
00:29we all know looking quite weak hasn't managed to open the Strait of Hormuz had to kick that that meeting
00:36with President Xi further back. It's finally happening and now he has to as you said go to go to
00:42Beijing and ask for China's help to get Iran a pretty small state right to to comply to really work
00:51with the U.S. Iran's you know played its hand unfortunately for those of us in the West quite effectively
00:57and China has leverage but
00:59whether China would actually use its leverage with Iran on this dimension it seems very unlikely. By the way Leslie
01:05not just a small state it's a country whose military we have according to President Trump and Defense Secretary Hegseth
01:13completely destroyed. I mean we've rendered their military absolutely useless and there's no leaders left. And you know we've taken
01:22their nuclear program.
01:23Last year we erased their nuclear program. So what cards does Iran have. How can it possibly you know keep
01:32the Strait of Hormuz closed with no military. And why do we care since it has no nuclear program.
01:37Well we you and we all know that Iran has a nuclear program. And even President Trump now wants to
01:43see that that uranium enrichment capability sort of stopped and unwound.
01:48And that's not really seemingly even part of the cards right now in those talks. But what Iran has is
01:54that asymmetric power and it's played it incredibly effectively over the Strait of Hormuz.
02:00And we know the costs right. Americans are looking at potentially if this doesn't get resolved and paying six to
02:06eight dollars for gas at the pumps. It's quite extraordinary.
02:11So you know that that problem sits there. It looms very very large. President Trump goes to China. And what
02:18does he want. He wants to be able to deliver wins. China's purchasing soybeans
02:23Boeing aircraft maybe establishing a board of international trade or a board of international investment which may or may not
02:31have any real significance.
02:32But I think everybody knows that the real crisis the sort of immediate and urgent crisis is Iran. And it's
02:39not the nuclear program. It's the Strait.
02:42And he will be seeking to see whether China will do anything to help unlock that. The other thing to
02:49really watch here right now is that the Brits and the French and 38 other nations or 40
02:54altogether are trying to come up with a plan that could actually help govern the Strait were it to be
03:00reopened. And this is going to be critical. I mean we've been hearing since Davos
03:04about the importance of middle powers from following on from Mark Carney's speech. And we're seeing you know in real
03:12time a bunch of middle powers actually quite powerful ones try to come together with a proposal.
03:18But unless or until the United States can get some sort of deal with Iran hopefully with China you know
03:26helping those middle
03:28powers can't really cut through to keep that straight. Why would Iran ever allow something like this. As you point
03:33out this is incredibly powerful
03:34leverage for them when they don't have leverage militarily or anywhere else. So why wouldn't this threat of Iran being
03:41able to seize and halt the
03:42industry whenever they want just continue from here on out. I mean I think it will. I think you're exactly
03:47right. This and this is the the the deep
03:50trauma because it didn't used to be a problem. This is the trauma that I'm sure I might hope much
03:54of the administration is feeling. The U.S. has things that
03:57can offer. It can it can offer to lift sanctions. Obviously Iran wants that. It can offer to unfreeze some
04:03of Iran's frozen assets.
04:05Those are big gifts. And President Trump wants to be able to demonstrate that he is getting something back that
04:13isn't what
04:13America already had which was a you know free access free free. The waterway was was open and not being
04:19used
04:20instrumentally in this way. So what does he get that he didn't already have before February 28th when those strikes.
04:25What can he get that we didn't already have before. I think what he wants to be able to the
04:30thing he can claim because he's not
04:32getting regime change that that sort of story went nowhere fast is is some sort of commitment to a nuclear
04:40deal. And there was a
04:42nuclear deal as we know the JCPOA which Trump in his first administration let go of. There's been talk but
04:49no movement for a very long time of
04:50getting a new nuclear deal. And I think at some point that might be on the cards. Right now it
04:56does not seem to be on the cards. And it is
04:57important. Right. Iran has capabilities and and and there's a real desire on the part of the U.S. and
05:04others to see those you know
05:06blocked for Iran. There's everything to play for unfortunately. Control over the strait and nuclear program that has capabilities to
05:15be
05:15developed. So unless some other state China comes in or some other incentive comes into play. It's hard to see
05:24how we get we get the
05:25situation unblocked.
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