00:00Seizing terrain or the threat of seizing that terrain can drive the behavior of the enemy.
00:06And I think that's what they're hoping to do by introducing them, drive them closer into the negotiations to try
00:10to bend to the U.S. will in those negotiations or escalate this to try to bring this to an
00:16end.
00:17That was retired Lieutenant General Robert Walsh on surveillance earlier.
00:21President Trump threatening further military action against Iran as the conflict roils global markets.
00:26Joining us now is Dana Stroll, Director of Research at the Washington Institute and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of
00:33Defense for the Middle East.
00:34Dana, thank you so much for joining us this morning.
00:36I was just looking at your thoughts and you said the prospects for a ceasefire or diplomacy via Pakistan are
00:42grim.
00:43Why are your expectations low for any sort of brokered ceasefire?
00:47Well, first of all, there's really mixed messages coming out of Iran itself.
00:51There's been senior officials who have said that American starting positions are non-negotiable.
00:58So it looks like the regime is not at all willing to make meaningful concessions on the problematic behavior that
01:04started this war in the first place.
01:06And secondly, the United States is escalating right now.
01:09It's increasing its military force buildup in the Middle East.
01:13Marines arrive in the Middle East in the next 24 hours.
01:16And then next week, elements of an Army Corps, 82nd Airborne, have already been deployed to the Middle East.
01:23And this looks like the United States is positioning for increased military operations.
01:28Presumably, Iran is watching that as well.
01:31Dana, how might they react with the buildup of troops around them?
01:36I think they've watched this multiple times now.
01:40So Trump had ordered this really massive U.S. military buildup starting in January when he called for the regime
01:47to back off the people.
01:48And that's what led to negotiations with Trump's team and the Iranians through January and part of February.
01:55But this idea of escalate to negotiate, the Iranians feel or have said that the rug was pulled out from
02:00under them.
02:01They were talking, but then Trump went to war.
02:03And so I think they were looking at this and saying, well, this isn't a real negotiation because clearly the
02:09United States is looking for a ground operation.
02:12Well, it's clearly an Iran that's emboldened and realizes that they can wage not just warfare, but economic warfare with
02:18what they're doing in the Strait of Hormuz.
02:20Dana, what kind of negotiating position does that even put the U.S. in?
02:24Any sort of deal reached?
02:25Would it be much worse than the one they would have reached before the outbreak of this escalation?
02:31Well, where we started was Israel and the United States talking about eliminating the ways in which Iran can project
02:39power and intimidate the rest of the Middle East.
02:42It's missile program, it's drone arsenal, it's nuclear weapons program, it's Navy.
02:47And over the past month of war, the United States and Israel have steadily taken out all of those capabilities.
02:53And what we've seen from Iran is an asymmetric response.
02:57By threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, saying that nobody can pass other than the ships the Iranian regime
03:03approves, that's exactly what's happened.
03:06International shipping has stopped.
03:08That's an asymmetric response that has had tremendous and profound economic implications.
03:13And so whether it's Trump saying, well, it's open, or the Iranian regime saying, well, allow ships to pass, what's
03:22I think unclear is when the private sector insurers and shippers perceive that the Strait of Hormuz is once again
03:28safe for international transit.
03:30Well, today, Iran's saying that as part of its necessities in order to negotiate any sort of ceasefire, that it
03:38must exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
03:41And it is and will remain its natural and legal right.
03:44Dana, will that just be a nonstarter for negotiations from the American side, if that's what they're getting, the sort
03:49of feedback they're hearing from Iran?
03:51Absolutely.
03:52And it should be a nonstarter for the international community.
03:55The Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway.
03:58There are international legal paradigms that govern the free flow of maritime traffic and commerce.
04:05And here is a clear area where even if the international community does not agree with the premise for Israel
04:12and the United States to have initiated this war,
04:15everyone should be able to stand together and say no bully and no adversary should be able to close an
04:21international waterway.
04:22And I think that's actually why we've seen more and more coalescing of international coalitions, governments and navies saying they
04:30would be willing to contribute to some sort of international presence here to insist that the Strait remain open.
04:36Well, just to that point, the Gulf states, the Gulf Arab neighbors of Iran certainly seem to be part of
04:41that conversation.
04:42Dana, there was reporting that they're considering joining the U.S.-Israeli war against Tehran.
04:47What sort of role do you expect them to play as this conflict continues on?
04:52Well, first of all, the reason that the Gulf states have been on the receiving end of a tremendous amount
04:58of Iranian missile and drone attacks
05:00is because they have partnerships with the United States, because they host the U.S. military.
05:04And what Iran is trying to do is threaten the very way of life of these Gulf countries,
05:09who rely on international shipping and the ability to get their goods, including energy resources, out to international markets.
05:16And that idea of trying to pressure the Gulf states to sever ties with the United States has backfired.
05:23These are countries that are actually quite aligned with the United States right now.
05:26They are not asking for Trump to commit to a ceasefire right now.
05:30In fact, they're actually, most of them, pushing for a more decisive end where the Iranian regime cannot hold hostage
05:37the international economy.
05:39And they're contemplating all sorts of potential action to support U.S. military operations inside Iran.
05:46I was looking at some of the surveys. Deutsche Bank did a survey, and most of the respondents expected a
05:51ceasefire to be reached in April.
05:53Polymarket pricing in something similar, despite what the noise is happening on the ground, or not noise, rather, but the
06:01facts on the ground.
06:02What is your assumption and whether this is something that can come to a conclusion in the next couple of
06:08weeks or might stretch on?
06:11Well, April starts next week and is a long month.
06:15So when the United States started this, they said four to six weeks.
06:19We're about four weeks in.
06:20And clearly there is active military staging and planning for the next phase of this campaign, which could include ground
06:28forces.
06:29Can all of that be wrapped up within two weeks?
06:32Probably not, but it also depends upon what kind of political process is available on the other side of military
06:39fighting and whether or not Trump can say he actually delivered some kind of conclusive end here.
06:46And that really does hinge on whether or not shippers in the international community perceive the strait to be open
06:53for business.
06:53Yes.
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