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00:00The U.S. is waiting on an offer, but still striking in the strait.
00:04The Iranian foreign minister said, quote, every time a diplomatic solution is on the table,
00:07the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure. Is it crude pressure tactics?
00:12What is the state of play here? And are we really expecting to get a response any minute?
00:17Good question. As of last night, the president at least wasn't ready to tell us that a response
00:24had come in. You played the clip earlier as he was leaving the White House and he said he was
00:28expecting a response last evening. I hung around the White House for his return from his live golf
00:36dinner and he came back around 10 o'clock-ish and we shouted questions at him then as well.
00:42Did you get a response? Did you get a response? And he didn't respond to those questions and just
00:47walked by. But from what he said and from what Secretary Rubio said, that's what they're waiting
00:52for and still TBD on what it says and whether the Iranians are willing to engage in a way that
01:00the United States wants. The response or the note that you just made that they said about
01:07hostilities impacting their desire to continue has been part of the ups and downs between the two
01:14sides really since the war began. Amir, let me turn to you and we have this statement in a recent
01:19Bloomberg piece from the foreign ministry in Iran saying Tehran's response is under review. Jeff
01:24giving us the latest there from the president who is occupied this weekend with a number of things
01:27including this golf tournament in Virginia. What have we heard from Tehran beyond that? What are
01:33they looking at and how likely are we to get a response from our reporting in the hours ahead?
01:38Yeah, good morning, David. So that is the latest copy that we have essentially the Iranian
01:42foreign ministry spokesperson saying that the proposal where President Trump gave Iran until
01:48yesterday to respond to is still under review. Now, Iran did not give a timeline to the response
01:54that's something else that is worthy of noting here. So we're supposed to hear from them imminently
02:00about this response. Now, Iran did come out over the past few weeks and they have called the U.S.
02:06proposals that have come through maximalists and that a lot of them are actually, and I quote,
02:11some of the Iranian officials saying that some of the requests that the U.S. is putting through are
02:16quite impossible. But let me bring you back to the beginning of this week and the region and some
02:21of the escalations that you guys have mentioned at the top of the show. And essentially, these
02:26escalations that we're seeing across the Strait of Hormuz have caught up to where I'm sitting right now
02:30in the UAE in Dubai on Monday. We had Monday evening, starting at 7 p.m., about four missile threat
02:39alerts
02:39that came through our phones. And essentially, the defense ministry here came out later and said that those were
02:46Iranian attacks that the UAE defense system had intercepted, about 15 missiles all in all and a few drones.
02:56So those escalations are still very much there. They're still very much in the sphere of the Gulf
03:03region. But both the U.S. and Iran came out and said that those attacks do not violate the ceasefire
03:12clauses that have been put through on April 8th. And further, I mean, the escalations that we've seen
03:18across the Strait of Hormuz have so far not impacted the ceasefire that is already in place. So that's a
03:24positive sign. But you're seeing the market reaction to those kind of seesaw requests that are being put
03:32through by either the U.S. or Iran. And they're essentially just behaving markets, whether it's
03:38energy or equities, are essentially behaving in response to those direct calls from either
03:44President Trump or the Iranian side. But as you mentioned, we're waiting to see the Iranian response
03:50again was supposed to come out yesterday, or that's the expectation of the Trump administration.
03:55It's still not out yet. So something that we're keeping a very close eye on over the next few days.
04:01Jeff, I also want to ask you about this Washington Post report, because we've been hearing messaging
04:04from the administration saying Iran is really feeling the hurt. They're getting close to the
04:08breaking point. This has really been effective. But the Washington Post reports on confidential
04:14intelligence analysis sent to the White House. Policymakers are being told Iran can survive for
04:19three to four months before facing severe economic hardships. Do you think that changes the calculation
04:25at all? Because that's three or four months of this and three or four months closer to November.
04:30Well, it certainly raises questions about, A, what the president and the White House are saying about
04:35this and, B, exactly what you just asked, whether or not Iran can last significantly longer than right
04:43now people perhaps expect in the West. Yes, it could delay this conflict or it could extend this
04:50conflict. The Iranians, at least from their rhetoric, have suggested that they feel that they're in a
04:56stronger position than the United States. President Trump has been using rhetoric saying that the war is
05:03over, saying that the conflict is over. That, in part, has some connection to Congress and the
05:09deadline that passed there. But the truth is, it hasn't. I mean, there's a ceasefire, and that ceasefire
05:16has more or less held, with the exception of these skirmishes that have happened in the Strait of
05:22Hormuz. But Iran is not, so far, until the United States gets that response, specifically standing
05:30down. And President Trump, despite saying they want a deal and he wants a deal, has also used
05:37escalatory language to say that if a deal doesn't come, then the strikes, the bombs will flow and fall
05:44again and at an even more intense level than they did before the ceasefire.
05:49Abir, the energy story here is so crucial as it has been since the beginning of this war. We know
05:53that
05:53Vice President J.D. Vance met with the Qatari prime minister this week. They talked about regional
05:57security. They talked about Iran. They talked about natural gas as well. I'm curious what you can tell
06:02us about the level of coordination and cooperation between the U.S. and the prime minister right now,
06:08and sort of what came out of those meetings, and the degree to which they're satisfied with
06:11what they're hearing from the United States about the trajectory of this war.
06:16Yeah, so look, I mean, the meeting that happened between the U.S. vice president and the Qatari
06:20prime minister, we had a readout of that. And it's essentially what you just said. They are,
06:25you know, talking about those LNG shipments that have traditionally gone through the Strait of
06:32Hormuz. A fraction of that is going through. Look, some of our reporting actually suggests this was
06:37a report that came out by Bloomberg a couple of days ago, suggesting that perhaps some oil shipments
06:44and some LNG shipments are going through the Strait of Hormuz that are not being tracked by shipping
06:51companies and that we name quite a few companies that are the biggest ones in the region. That's
06:56Saudi Aramco and the UAE's Adnok, where their ships are essentially having a little bit of success
07:03moving through. Now, again, we're talking about from over 12 million tankers going through the
07:09Strait of Hormuz to about 500,000, so a very small figure. But some of what we heard from that
07:14meeting
07:15that happened between Vance and the Qatari prime minister is that the U.S. and Qatar are still
07:21keeping those relationships that have enabled them in the past to essentially carry through those
07:31wider LNG shipments. But something else that's quite interesting here is, you know, and I allude
07:36to some of what you've mentioned about the relationships between Gulf countries and the United States
07:41and Israel as well, we're seeing a little bit of friction between Gulf countries now. When the UAE
07:48was attacked earlier this week, we saw a flood of world leaders, including Saudi Arabia's MBS.
07:54We saw Egypt's president, Sisi, also coming to Abu Dhabi to show their solidarity. Now, MBS did hold a
08:01call with the UAE's leader, MBZ. But something that I've been hearing a lot about is, post this war,
08:07what happens to this alliance in the GCC, especially in the wake of the UAE leaving OPEC?
08:14What does that mean for the wider cooperation within the six-country GCC? We're seeing a little
08:20bit of friction signs there. And so that is something that I thought was quite interesting
08:24to think about once this war, if this war is over, David.
08:30And I think exactly what you just talked about, you know, Iran has created this Persian Gulf
08:33Strait authority. And I'm sure you're hearing the same thing, Abir and Jeff, but sources I'm
08:37talking to in the region are really afraid that the U.S. is going to leave with some sort of
08:41half
08:41measure that kind of enables Iran to, if not stop traffic in the strait altogether, to taper it or
08:47control it or benefit or tax it or toll it or any of these things. And I think fears are
08:51really
08:51growing. I kind of have the same question for both of you. But, Abir, I'm going to start with you.
08:55Who is running this policy, both in the White House and Iran? Abir, CNN has a report that U.S.
09:01intel says Iran's supreme leader is still shaping war policy, but we haven't really seen him. The
09:06Iranians are saying he's in complete health. Do we know who's running this on Iran's side,
09:10or is that still a little bit opaque as to who's actually making these decisions?
09:15Yeah, look, I mean, you're absolutely right. We haven't seen him. A lot of reasons behind why we
09:19haven't seen him go through a lot. You know, some reports earlier by the Wall Street Journal,
09:24we spoke about this a couple of weeks ago, say that his health condition is in tatters a little
09:31bit, that he needs plastic surgery. Now, none of this has been verified. But a lot of what we're
09:37hearing from the Iranian side is that he's still calling the calls behind the scenes. But this
09:42collection of Iranian officials that have been front and center, now that includes the foreign
09:48minister, Abbas Arashie, who has been in China meeting with his counterpart. We understand as well
09:53that that meeting in China has led to some kind of resolution or not, not necessarily a resolution,
09:59but to some kind of breakthrough in Iran coming back to the table. The spokesperson in the ministry
10:06and the head of the parliament, as well as members of the IRGC, are still very much, you know, the
10:13officials that are keeping track of these conversations that are happening with the U.S., Christina.
10:20Jeff, same question to you. Rubio, Vance, Wyckoff, Trump? Yes?
10:27Who's handling it on the U.S. side or who's handling it?
10:29Who's really driving this policy? Yeah. Is it a combination of all of the above?
10:34Yes. Although I would say that as with all things foreign policy and for that matter,
10:40domestic policy, everything comes down to President Trump. This is someone who follows his instincts,
10:45who can sometimes change his mind on a whim. He has lieutenants, and certainly Wyckoff and Kushner
10:53have been his top lieutenants in terms of negotiation, with J.D. Vance also stepping in
10:59for one set of very high-profile talks in Pakistan, as you well know. But at the end of the
11:05day,
11:06it's President Trump who's driving this train. It's President Trump who is deciding when he's ready
11:12to end and deciding whether or not to issue additional threats or try to be de-escalatory.
11:18And he's done both. He's done both. On that last question to you, Jeff, just about this other
11:22ceasefire we saw between Ukraine and Russia announced by the president at the request,
11:26I gather, of President Putin. What do you make of this coming about? And I guess there's the hope
11:31here that that could be extended further. Any signs that that might be in the offing?
11:34Well, I actually asked President Trump that last night as he was leaving the White House,
11:38and he said that it was possible that that ceasefire between the two could be extended. Now,
11:44I don't know if that's based in anything beyond optimism, but it was interesting that he announced
11:50this in part because the Russia-Ukraine war, though, of course, we know it's still going on
11:56and still very intense, has gotten a lot less attention over the last several weeks, at least
12:00from this side of the pond, as President Trump has focused on the Iran war. So he portrayed it as
12:07a
12:07hopeful sign and as something that either could be extended or could lead to a broader agreement
12:13at some point between those two sides.
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