00:00What represents a good outcome and a win for the United States this weekend?
00:05I mean, really, I think the best outcome that we can expect from this weekend would be an agreement to
00:10meet again,
00:10a specific plan for the next meeting. The two sides are very far apart. Their plans do not overlap at
00:16all.
00:16The Iranian 10-point plan and the U.S. 15-point plan are diametrically opposed.
00:21So I don't expect a lot of deals to come out of this first weekend.
00:25Simply progress talking, constructive discussions about what the key issues are,
00:30a decision about what to focus on first, whether it's the Strait of Hormuz or Iran's nuclear program,
00:35and then a specific plan for when the next meeting will happen and where.
00:41How long do you see this ceasefire lasting?
00:44Because it seems that Israel continues to bomb Lebanon and the Iranians insist that that is breaking the ceasefire.
00:52Meanwhile, President Trump said he'll only allow a ceasefire if the Iranians open the Strait of Hormuz,
00:59but it appears to be closed.
01:02Well, I think that's the question that everyone's asking is, you know, will this actually last beyond this weekend?
01:08You know, both sides do have an incentive to keep the ceasefire going at least through the two weeks.
01:13For the United States, the military options on the table are really undesirable.
01:17In order to accomplish the goals that the president has set out, ending Iran's nuclear program, reopening the Strait of
01:24Hormuz,
01:25these are things that military tools really can't accomplish at any sort of reasonable cost.
01:30And so for the United States, diplomacy makes the most sense.
01:33And Iran, too, has taken significant damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes.
01:39And it's at a point now of high leverage, seeing that it's shown the world that it can control the
01:46Strait of Hormuz and that it survived a war with the United States.
01:51So both sides have an incentive here to actually make good on this two weeks and actually make progress.
01:55If we get to the end of the two weeks and nothing's been agreed, but there's progress ongoing, I could
02:01see this getting kicked down the road.
02:03But as you said, I think the two issues here are, number one, what happens in Lebanon.
02:07Hopefully there are going to be some talks about this next week.
02:10Hopefully that can keep that below the radar.
02:12And what happens at the Strait of Hormuz?
02:15Because right now some number of ships are getting through, but it's a small number, and they're only going through
02:20after paying Iranian tolls.
02:22And it's the president making clear in a true social post that he's not OK with Iran charging tolls.
02:28It's something the GCC would not like either.
02:30The Gulf states would not want to see happen.
02:32Jennifer, what is the alternative, what is the mechanism for getting the Strait of Hormuz open and to remove this
02:39piece of leverage that Iran has?
02:43Well, really, the only real option, like long-term solution, is some kind of diplomatic resolution, a political solution to
02:51this conflict.
02:52And that's true for a couple of reasons.
02:54The first is that the real problem here isn't that companies and countries won't pay Iranian tolls.
03:00So they may not want to, but they probably would if they had to.
03:04The problem is that they're not sure it's safe to go through.
03:07There's still concern about whether or not there are mines in the Strait, whether or not Iran might use missiles
03:13and drones.
03:13So until there's a political solution, that uncertainty will keep shipping companies from going through, insurance companies from providing the
03:21necessary insurance.
03:21And that will keep the Gulf states from putting a lot of their production infrastructure back online.
03:27So really, you need a long-term political solution to restore confidence.
03:31The military options on the table are very undesirable.
03:34If the United States wanted to try to force an opening of the Strait of Hormuz, it probably could.
03:39But it would take something like 100,000 forces on the ground to hold territory along that strait to suppress
03:46any sort of Iranian missile or drone fire.
03:48It would take at least 10 or probably more U.S. destroyers.
03:5310 destroyers is already 20 percent of the U.S. deployable destroyer fleet.
03:57And then you'd need significant amounts of U.S. air power and air cover to protect those ships as well.
04:02So you're talking a massive operation.
04:04This would only partially restore traffic through the Strait, and it would be required indefinitely until you had that political
04:11solution.
04:11So you're talking a little bit about the Strait of Hormuz, and you're talking a little bit about the Strait
04:12of Hormuz.
Comments