00:00Joining us now is Jennifer Gavito, senior advisor at the Cohen Group. Jennifer has held senior positions at the State
00:05Department and National Security Council influencing decisions on critical regions, specifically Iraq, Iran and Libya.
00:14Jennifer, great to have you on the program.
00:15You know, one of the things, one of the criticisms I've heard a lot over the last couple of days
00:20is that we have now confirmed the power, the control that Iran has over the Strait of Hormuz and how
00:28important that is for the global economy.
00:30Didn't we always know that they had that power?
00:33Like, wasn't this always a risk or was it a surprise to the Trump administration?
00:39I think both of those things are true.
00:41And first, thanks for having me back on this morning.
00:43Interesting. Iran has always had the power to close the Strait.
00:47That has long been known.
00:49But it really had determined that that was a nuclear option and so had never exercised that.
00:54It wasn't until this set of strikes began that we saw Iran kind of realize that vision.
01:02And it seems, at least in these initial hours after the ceasefire agreement, that there is some acquiescence on the
01:09part of the United States and the international community that that control may continue in some form.
01:15So what now, Jennifer, when seemingly ceasefire for two weeks, but seemingly the two sides very far apart still?
01:24You're absolutely right. They are very, very far apart.
01:26And if, in fact, the 10-point plan that has been widely seen as far as the conditions for Iran
01:35for the ceasefire are the basis on which the negotiation is happening,
01:39it is hard for me to imagine that the United States, let alone Israel or allies in the region, will
01:46be able to accommodate some of those demands.
01:48I do think, you know, it has to be said that the ceasefire is a positive step.
01:55We have always said that this conflict was never going to be resolved militarily.
01:59It would always require a diplomatic solution.
02:02And a diplomatic solution was never going to be possible in those, you know, 12-hour, 24-hour, 48-hour
02:08windows that the president had issued.
02:11And so two weeks does provide a reasonable basis to see what may be achieved.
02:17But, again, looking at the conditions I think that both sides have and the red lines that we know exist,
02:24again, for both parties, not to mention, again, Israel,
02:27it is very difficult at this moment to envision how a sustainable end of the conflict is reached.
02:33How much has this excursion cost us, Jennifer?
02:37Pete Hegseth this morning in his press conference for President Trump said that it's only, we've only expended 10%
02:44of our military power.
02:46But we also had a story last weekend that said, you know, before this war we had 23, 2400 of
02:53these long-range air-to-surface cruise missiles,
02:56and now we've only got like 450 and we're collecting them from other regions around the globe and bringing them
03:01to Iran.
03:03Well, so for good reason. Those numbers are not well-publicized.
03:08I think that, you know, it depends greatly on whether you're talking about defensive capabilities or offensive capabilities
03:15and what specific capabilities are in question.
03:18But certainly this has been a costly conflict so far.
03:22You know, over a dozen U.S. servicemen died as a result of it, not to mention the financial cost
03:29and the cost to our national security.
03:32I would add to that that, you know, some of our key relationships, particularly with Europe, have also been strained.
03:39And we're hearing this morning that Israel is quite frustrated by having been cut out of the negotiations over the
03:44ceasefire.
03:45And so I think it will take some time to determine what the military cost of this has been specifically
03:51and how the U.S. may be able to bounce back from that by increasing production lines.
03:58But in the meantime, you know, I think that the problem is a bit broader than that.
04:03I'm not sure if you've seen Alex Wickman put out a story this morning saying that the ceasefire has reinforced
04:08views also among our adversaries,
04:11not just our allies, but our adversaries, that the U.S. is maybe weaker than thought.
04:20That's the view from China. That's the view from Russia. All right.
04:24How much has this set us back in those terms?
04:28Well, first of all, I think it's important to remember that there have been key beneficiaries of this conflict,
04:34Russia being one of them with the removal of oil sanctions that now permit it to restock its war chest
04:40for its fight against Ukraine.
04:42So Russia has been a clear winner in this conflict.
04:46China, it's been reported, played a role in the mediation that led to yesterday's ceasefire.
04:52So, again, contributed to international legitimacy there.
04:56But as far as, you know, where the United States comes out of this, we don't yet know what the
05:01final terms of a long term into the conflict may be.
05:05But I think that there are some key questions.
05:08And chief among them are, a month ago when this began, the Strait of Hormuz was open for free flow
05:14of travel.
05:15This morning, even after the ceasefire, that is not the case.
05:18Iran is, as I understand it, demanding some sort of toll for passage of ships.
05:25And that looks to be its long-term intent.
05:28And so are we fundamentally in a better position today than we were a year ago?
05:32You can argue that the United States has had significant tactical and military success against a wide range, tens of
05:39thousands of targets inside of Iran.
05:41But when it comes to strategic objectives, including the reasons that were initially laid out for entering this conflict,
05:50specifically degradation of the nuclear program, degradation of regional proxies,
05:56and ensuring that Iran cannot project its power outside of its borders, I'm not sure that any progress has been
06:02made on those.
06:03And added to that, we now have arguably a harder-line regime in place than we began with.
06:08Yeah, it's the big fear for this moment.
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