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In this special ground report from Assam, India Today explores the shifting political landscape and who is winning the narrative battle ahead of the assembly elections.
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00:07The last time I was in Assam, two seasons were turning.
00:15Winter was giving way to spring.
00:18A political season was closing to augur in a new mandate.
00:51Also, the last time I was in Assam.
00:57Assam's heart was still whole and beating.
01:03Its favourite son, Zubin, was still alive.
01:08It was late at night, elections were around the corner.
01:12The NRC fire had engulfed the state and its biggest cultural icon, Zubin, agreed to meet me at 1am to
01:23not talk politics.
01:28You are viewed as this overarching icon, as a saviour of Assam's pride.
01:33People love me a lot because I am always rebel.
01:37And I am very blunt.
01:38What I say, I say on stage, in front of everyone.
01:42I never hide anything.
01:43But I can fight with them, for them.
01:46So I have always tried that.
01:47And I have always tried to promote my music, my culture, everywhere, wherever I have gone.
01:54Even now we are trying to promote our silk, our clothes, our food.
01:59Like we are trying to build up a revolution everywhere.
02:02All in all the villages.
02:04With the villagers, with the girls, with the women.
02:06You know, I came here in the morning.
02:08You have a very eccentric, strange way of life.
02:11Can you explain that?
02:12You have got people milling about all day.
02:13You have got your fans who come in, take pictures, who go out.
02:16Yeah, they are open.
02:17Its open for everyone actually.
02:18I know, I was here in the morning.
02:20So that's why I made this place.
02:21Like for sitting and Adda and talking to everyone.
02:25Sharing views.
02:26So it's an open house?
02:28Its open, yeah.
02:29Only the studio is closed because that's my studio.
02:32Only I work there.
02:33Okay, so I want to ask you.
02:34I am a socialist basically.
02:35Socialist?
02:36Socialist.
02:37Okay.
02:38So what is a socialist?
02:39How does a socialist view living in a state governed by the Bharatiya Janta Party?
02:44That is my view.
02:45I followed it.
02:47Right.
02:47And I always worked for society.
02:49So I am non-political.
02:51No dirty politics.
02:53And I love being with the people.
02:55That's it.
02:58Seven years on, I am back in Assam.
03:01Two seasons are still turning.
03:04Winter has given way to spring.
03:07One political season is up to usher in another.
03:15But Assam's heart is not whole.
03:18It's broken.
03:20It's broken.
03:21And the void will never be filled.
03:28Assam's cultural heartbeat has stopped.
03:31Zubin is dead.
03:35It was only but fit that I meet him in death around the same time I met him alive, full
03:42of life.
03:461am, the site designated as his memorial, the same place where his funeral took place, sees a steady stream of
03:55love.
03:55For the Assam's, this is a revered spot that they must visit to tell Zubinda that they will never forget.
04:08Where did you come from?
04:10We went from Assam's, from Hujai district.
04:11From here?
04:12From here?
04:13From here.
04:14You didn't come first?
04:14No.
04:15I came first.
04:16We come here.
04:17When I come here, we come here.
04:19When I come here, we come here.
04:22What do you say?
04:23It's like a temple.
04:27Why did you stay asleep?
04:28It's like a...
04:29It's like a temple.
04:31It's like a temple.
04:32They were like a temple.
04:33Like a temple.
04:36How did you say a temple?
04:38What did you say?
04:39It was like a temple.
04:41It was so nice.
04:42You know, I felt like that for me, my father was in the right place.
04:47Now they're like a temple, my weren't realizing it's the right place, you're like a temple.
04:50I remember a temple, my heart is slowly listening.
04:55And now I feel like a temple was in the right place.
04:57It's not happening.
04:58There are elections,
05:00there are all of them talking about Zubinda.
05:03Do you think that any party will give justice for justice?
05:06What do we do?
05:08It's not happening.
05:10But the party is doing the right.
05:12Do you think that they are doing the right?
05:14Yes, it is.
05:16Everyone is doing the right.
05:18What will happen after the election is not the right.
05:23But for us, justice is a very important thing.
05:26Do you think that they are doing the right.
05:27It's not happening.
05:32And that means that they won't do politics.
05:35They won't do politics.
05:45It means that we don't do politics with the simple people.
05:51Our people, that's simply people.
06:19In depth, Zubin Garg has been politicized.
06:23With the same vengeance with which he hated politics.
06:30What we often forget, the impermanence of life and the impermanence of power.
06:37The quest for power though, eternal.
06:44The BJP first came to power in Assam in 2016 with 60 of the 126 assembly seats.
06:52With allies Assam Gan Parishad, AGP and Bodulan People's Front, BPF.
06:59The NDA's tally was 86 and Sarbanam Das Sonawal became Chief Minister.
07:05In 2021, the BJP retained its 60 seats and raised its vote share from 29% to 33%.
07:13This time, Hemantha was on the ticket and became Chief Minister.
07:242026. Is the stage set for Sarma again?
07:29Or can Gogol stage an upset?
07:37In 2023, Assam's 126 assembly constituencies were redrawn.
07:4326 new constituencies were created.
07:4623 went off the map.
07:49Six were restructured into three.
07:51Seats reserved for scheduled tribe increased from 16 to 19.
07:56Those for scheduled castes from 8 to 9.
07:58The most consequential impact of delimitation has been on Muslim-dominated areas.
08:08How has delimitation turned or changed the demographic map of Assam?
08:14So you know Assam has at least 40% Muslim population.
08:17Official 2011 figure is 34%.
08:20So they used to, the Muslim population, they used to influence at least 35 seats earlier before the delimitation.
08:26The delimitation has decreased that influence to only 22 seats.
08:31So even if Assam has 40% Muslim population and majority of them would vote for Congress or AUDF
08:37and they would get a huge vote share, but that vote share would not translate into seat share.
08:43Because last time also, if you see Congress and AUDF fought together
08:48and Congress got a vote share of I believe 30%.
08:51BJP got 33%.
08:52Right.
08:52But look at the seat differences, 60 and 29.
08:56So delimitation, that is one factor of delimitation.
08:59The other thing is that in Upper Assam also, which not many people have spoken about,
09:04the Ahom sentiment and there are certain communities who may not be very willing to vote for BJP.
09:10They also have been cut out from their constituencies in such a way
09:14that they do not have that kind of impact that they used to have earlier.
09:17So Ahom, which hasn't usually voted for the BJP, now are scattered across.
09:22I would not say they haven't voted for BJP.
09:24They have also voted for BJP.
09:26But if the three go-goes have come together, they are Ahom.
09:29So if that sentiment also works.
09:31Prevails.
09:31But earlier there used to be at least a dozen seats where Ahom should do well,
09:36which Ahom should influence.
09:38But now it has reduced.
09:39That is also the influence of that because of delimitation and of course where the Muslim vote is concerned.
09:43Especially the political rhetoric, Kaushik, that we have seen from the Chief Minister to us in Delhi
09:50and across is very, very disturbing, is polarization.
09:53But I believe that is also a huge factor which is playing out.
09:56Yes, of course.
09:57Because as I said, Assam has 40% Muslim population.
10:00Of them, I believe 99% would be of immigrant origin from Bangladesh.
10:06So they are called Miyas here.
10:08Assamese Muslims have different terms.
10:10Goriya, Maurya and other terms.
10:11Desi Muslim.
10:12So that's not the issue.
10:14Even Assamese Muslims are opposed to these Bangladeshi Muslims.
10:17So that itself, earlier the fight was, you know about Assam education,
10:22the whole fight was against anyone who came from Bangladesh.
10:25Whether it's Hindu, Muslim, it didn't matter to Assamese people.
10:28To indigenous people of Assam, it still doesn't matter what the religion is.
10:32Because they are Bangladeshi, they are opposed to it.
10:34So what BJP and Himanthaviswa Sarma, they have smartly done is that they have also made it a kind of
10:40Hindu-Muslim issue.
10:41But now he has clarified, as you can say, that I am against the Miyas.
10:45Miyas means the Bangladeshi Muslims, not the Assamese Muslims.
10:48So the whole issue of polarization, if you say, you will see it a lot in lower Assam, where the
10:55immigrant Muslims are present.
10:57So it works for the BJP because the threat perception is on your face.
11:02But in upper Assam, it will not work that much because, first, there is hardly any Muslim population of Niyas
11:09Muslims.
11:09There are Muslims, which are local Muslim population.
11:12Then they are not on your face.
11:15Then there are Ahom influence.
11:16Then there are other tribes.
11:17So all these things.
11:18And there is another issue which hasn't been discussed.
11:21The ST status for Sikhs communities, they have been demanding for long.
11:25Congress, the other day when we interviewed Gaurab Guga, he said that they would give ST status.
11:31Because Razanat Singh had said in 2014, which hasn't happened.
11:34So all these things are there.
11:35So that's why in upper Assam, the polarization impact is not that much.
11:39It's not that much.
11:40So, okay.
11:41So Kaushik has called this election.
11:44And he has given it to the BJP.
11:47Correct?
11:47Yes.
11:47For multiple factors.
11:49As I said, the popularity of...
11:50That's very brave, I might say.
11:52In the age of social media.
11:53And, you know, but very brave.
11:57But it can fall on my face also.
11:59Yeah, yeah, yeah.
12:00Very brave.
12:00Because last time I called Jorhat election, where I said that Gaurab Guga is likely to lose.
12:05And the egg is on my face.
12:07So I have been careful.
12:09I have studied the whole demography.
12:11And as I showed you, the breakup of seats district-wise and region-wise.
12:16So based on that and based on BJP's organizational strength, the Congress, in a way, the organizationally, it's not that
12:23strong.
12:23So you are sticking your neck out.
12:24I am sticking my neck out and think BJP will sail through.
12:27I mean, NDA will sail through.
12:28Will sail through.
12:29Yeah.
12:37I want to draw your attention to two boards.
12:39If you see this one in Assamese, it's written that the Aurunoday scheme, which is direct cash transfer to women,
12:44will be up to 3,000 rupees a month.
12:47The one right at the back that we attempt, which is a different scheme for women, is to reach 40
12:53lakh women and give them entrepreneurship with loans.
12:58So two schemes, this one like the Ladli Bahen Yojana, the Ladki Bahen Yojana, and that one like an entrepreneur
13:05scheme, which we saw in Bihar, that will give you an X amount of money and you can start your
13:09own business.
13:10So much has been spoken about the polarization, counter polarization, delimitation in Assam.
13:17Very little has been spoken about the beneficiary schemes, schemes like this.
13:32The other one is a J.I.P.
13:38The other one is a J.P.
13:43The other one is a J.P.
13:48I don't know.
13:50I'm doing this the way, like, for someone and someone.
13:53I get you, but I don't know.
13:55Still, you get me a regular form?
13:58Still, I don't know.
14:00Still, I don't know.
14:01So, you're good for our form right now?
14:03Still, I don't know.
14:03Well, we're not getting the work from now.
14:04It's been working.
14:05But, the government is Okay.
14:07Thanks.
14:08I'm a good sign.
14:08We have news from the TV, right now.
14:10You seem very beautiful with the saddle.
14:12The bad sĂĄdances are very beautiful.
14:13Do you make money for this scheme?
14:16Yes.
14:17We get to get.
14:17We get to get.
14:18How much are you coming from Arunodesh?
14:21How much are you coming from Arunodesh?
14:229,000?
14:23Yes, 9,000.
14:25Okay.
14:26I get 1,250,000.
14:29Okay.
14:30Do you get all of them?
14:31Yes, I get them.
14:36Then there is the personal capital of Himanta Biswasarma,
14:41divisive yet very popular.
14:56Gahati University.
14:58This is where Himanta Biswasarma studied.
15:03RRC 1, the hostel he lived in.
15:12The new occupants.
15:14Some see a future in their super senior.
15:18What will you do?
15:20You will do it.
15:21You will do it.
15:21You will do it.
15:22What will you do besides them?
15:23What is your biggest goal?
15:25What is your biggest goal?
15:26What is your goal?
15:28What is your goal?
15:29My goal is very different.
15:31But in the current circumstances,
15:34I just want to give the government power,
15:36that the youth can raise their voice.
15:40Everyone gives the opportunity.
15:41Everyone knows how much unemployment rate is.
15:44That is a big difference.
15:45We give the opportunities.
15:48What do you like to do?
15:50I like my mother.
15:51Your mother?
15:53Himanta Biswasarma.
15:54Himanta Biswasarma.
15:54He's very eminent,
15:55he's very powerful,
15:57he's very good according to me.
16:12The others, not happy with his problematic, divisive communal stand.
16:18Religion politics?
16:22No one is Hindu, but we don't have division.
16:25We say that India is a very diverse country, we have multiple cultures, multiple religions.
16:32We should have unity in diversity.
16:35If the division comes in, if the family comes in, the other people will attack.
16:39Today what we see, they do all the Bangladeshi Muslims,
16:44they will deportation of Bangladeshi Muslims or Hindu Muslims, that kind of politics.
16:48We don't want that, okay?
16:49They don't want that?
16:50Youth doesn't want that.
16:51I look up to one politician, Himanta Viswa Sarma,
16:54because the way he manipulates people, the way he convinces people to do something.
17:00Manipulate people?
17:01Yeah.
17:01You don't like him?
17:02No.
17:03You like the way he does it?
17:04I like the way he does it.
17:07Okay, so you admire that?
17:09Yeah, I admire it.
17:10But you don't like him?
17:11I like him, I like him.
17:12You like him?
17:12Very contradictory statements.
17:16Look, we can apologise, we are having all that questioning of Western countries,
17:25and, you know, I can tell that.
17:26There is no way any explanatory circumstances as you say.
17:27That you already meet the same thing,
17:30and there isn't people from a store of thousands on nursery,
17:33and there's a lotlink approaches likeonteciche Muslims.
17:40Why make them happy to write about their own service?
17:42everyone what has given the BJP a psychological edge this election in a
17:49battle of optics the public disowning of the Congress by its leaders and big
17:53ticket defections the defection of Bhupen Bora and Pradyot Bordulai have
18:02inflicted perceptual damage on the Congress campaign that on the eve of
18:09Poland Congress turncoat Pradyot Bordulai is fighting the election from this
18:14pull on a BJP ticket the pitch queered by a disgruntled former BJP leader turned
18:21independent making things difficult for Bordulai just five minutes of your time
18:32you can see I've lost my voice already see it has been very very hectic schedule
18:42because I really got very little time but I am very thankful to the BJP Paribar you
18:50know the way they have helped me there the way they are which me they are in
18:55fact leading whatever lacuna that I might have they have fulfilled they filled up
19:00all the lacuna and they are helping me and you can see the palpable difference
19:05now you know how we are going ahead and searching ahead
19:09this put is new to you you've you also have someone who's standing as an
19:14independent who is former BJP it's not a you know it started to be a tough contest
19:19see I particularly feel very fortunate that actually I have traveled from the
19:26easternmost corner of the Indian map that Margarita my hometown exactly I
19:31represented Margarita four times in Assam assembly then I moved to the heart of
19:36Islam that is Naga and then from Naga I won twice and for your information you
19:43know in Naga parliamentary seat for long 35 years no Congress candidate I'm talking
19:50about Congress no Congress candidate won you know continuously for 35 years since
19:571984 but when I was asked to contest from Naga is a massive parliamentary
20:02constituency I retrieved Naga in favor of Congress after long 35 years but anyway
20:09then subsequently again I won for a second term today I'm very fortunate that I'm
20:15I've come to the nerve center of the power and governance and you know the
20:21collective aspirations of the people of Assam because Kohati Dispur is the nerve
20:29center epicenter radar Mr. Baudalai I would have to ask you for someone who's been
20:35dried in wool where allegiance to the Congress was concerned especially from your
20:39NSUI days it's decade-old association does it feel strange that suddenly from
20:47the hand you are now spotting the Lotus something I have told everybody I have
20:53told the BJP leadership also see it has been a very very painful decision let me
20:58tell you one thing I am NOT hiding my you know initial you know kind of
21:04hesitation kind of you know the torture mental torture that I had or the kind of
21:11you know decision I have taken a very hard decision no doubt about it and I don't
21:15shy away from taking very hard decision when well yes that's for sure but I told
21:21everybody I agree with the Congress party because I joined Congress party when I was
21:26early 60s you've grown old with the Congress party but a young boy when you joined the Congress
21:29party you say I'm old I'm not saying I'm old no no no no I'm not saying you're old I
21:33don't want
21:34to get into any ageist jibes I'm just saying you were a young boy in NSUI when you joined the
21:38Congress and today at this stage of your career in life to move to a different party I had grown
21:44with the Congress party I've learned a lot and whatever social standing or whatever political
21:50positions I've got because of the Congress party at the same time I always took pride that I had been
21:56a first-generation politician in the Congress party you know so I have been very you know I'm very
22:01thankful but I had to take this painful decision because for last two and a half years I have
22:09narrated all this the region and I don't I don't want to sound like a crybaby that you know my
22:15story
22:16gone saw and that's why I'm doing this I didn't get something that's why I'm doing this but it has
22:21been a very difficult and painful decision but today I'm taking it yeah I'd like to ask you one
22:28more question or rather two more questions sir is it ideology or is it unhappiness with your high
22:32command because if it was ideology you would have moved earlier a sound there's a different ballgame
22:37altogether a sound the Assamese people identity is of paramount importance because a long six-year-old
22:45Assamese politician if you see the genesis because Assamese people they are getting outnumbered you
22:52know they are feeling always threatened and you know they are they are being swamped really and in a
22:59situation like that the leadership has to understand it you know they have to really be sensitized but
23:08are many ways I felt that Congress party was basically was you know fearing around only the
23:16minority seats but they were ignoring the interest but what I'm saying are you ideologically aligned
23:22with the BJP after criticizing the BJP listen I told you I told everybody I cannot turn revisionist
23:29overnight but I have a lot of respect for BJP and that's why without any precondition
23:35I have accepted BJP's membership I am learning a lot what do you mean sir without any precondition
23:41no when I join many people who are ascribing to many like you know some motive that I have come
23:47to
23:47BJP but please I want to remind you I was in the second term of the Lukasawa I would have
23:54continued
23:55like a case bar with a lot of mental torture a lot of thing I could have continued till June
24:022029 I was still having a term you know unfinished term of two and three and a half years but
24:09I the
24:10day I resigned from Congress party the same very day I shot of a letter to the speaker of the
24:16Lukasawa
24:17resigning from Lukasawa I didn't I mean I just took a decision and I stuck into that decision and I
24:24don't
24:24have any regret today I'm looking forward I'm not looking back you know I've just come from an interview
24:30with mr. Gaurav Gugwai who's not very far from where you are exactly 500 meters and he has a
24:35message for you he says either mr. Bordoloy was lying earlier where he called the BJP communal and
24:41the kind of language that he used or he's lying right now it's one of the two well I have
24:46to
24:47understand a lot of things I have to understand at the moment I am trying to learn and I'm of
24:54course I
24:55have a lot of respect for BJP that's why I have come and join but then one thing I'm sure
25:00I'm not
25:00going to be a satirian politician I wish you luck thank you thank you thank you thank you nice to
25:06see
25:14Gaurav Gugwai newly appointed Assam Congress president fighting to keep the legacy of his
25:21father Taran Gugwai alive taking on the heat of Himanta proving to his party his cadre his Assamese
25:29people he has what it is lots of choppers landing I'm so you're going to load the audio there but
25:39if you can we can still carry on now correct me if I'm wrong mr. Gaurav Gugwai I mean you
25:45can correct me
25:46but there is a sense a perception why is that this chunaab that Congress is fighting in your
25:59selection but for twenty thirty one perception or such I mean it's a fair enough a perception
26:04career I'm such a me right there a perception me right here I'm Zabin Ke Saat Reethe Zabin Ke Saat
26:10look Jom Amaree Paas at the local local Kethe Kya Chinta Maat Kuro Aakki Sir Ka Raegi
26:15the schemes and which is direct you know cash transfers and
26:45people are looking at it in at least the ones we've spoken to as deliverance that there is no
26:50middleman paisa aa raha hai and by the last count that we you know me and my team sat 75
26:56percent
26:57of Assam is touched by at least one government scheme in Assam that's a huge number Mr. Gugwai
27:02every incumbent government has has put their schemes but does that mean every incumbent government has
27:07won no and again look at the consciousness of women voters as I said women don't want to be
27:13exploited young people want a quality of education as well so as I said don't look at the quantum but
27:19also look at the quality the quality of our state the quality of our democracy and that's why people
27:24are very much sure I want to ask you uh Mr. Gugwai that um a do you agree that this
27:30is going to be a
27:31huge issue this election for you because there seems to be a very strong counter polarization where
27:37religion is concerned in Assam I think people are Assam you know the way we've done our campaign we've
27:43really taken a lot of the BJP's track record on these sensitive issues to the people now we need
27:49they talk about you know illegal people entering India illegally from Bangladesh but do you not believe
27:55illegal should be thrown out hear me out you know who's done more in in terms of throwing them out
28:00not them it's us look at parliament records look at assembly records far more people who had entered
28:06India illegally were deported during Dr. Manmohan Singh's tenure than during Narendra Modi ji's tenure
28:12look at the border fencing from which you know uh people we can stop people far more kilometers of the
28:18border was fenced during Dr. Manmohan Singh ji's tenure than Narendra Modi ji's tenure look at the
28:24updation of the national registrar of citizens that took place in Assam while that started and it was
28:29initiated during Dr. Manmohan Singh's late Dr. Manmohan Singh's tenure it remains incomplete so this
28:35government just talks but doesn't do in fact the in the last Rajya Sabha election the BJP took the
28:43support of Maulana Ajmal to get votes to help secure the victory for the third candidate most recently
28:50Hemantha Bishwa Sharma took three MLA's of Maulana Ajmal's party and made them join the NDA fold
28:55in an interview he has said that how he and Maulana Ajmal have a close political dialogue and a good
29:01relationship so this kind of double standards hypocrisy people of Assam are now very well
29:07acquainted with and therefore they feel that you know this is uh this is just politics you know
29:13Hemantha Bishwa Sharma says you know I have uh evicted so many people if they are ill people who
29:20have entered from Bangladesh illegally how many of those homes how many of those people have you sent
29:26back to have you sent back to Bangladesh why are they still here if they are people have entered
29:32India illegally why have given them cash grants why have them given them temporary land settlements
29:37so this kind of hogwash and double standards I think this is a very sensitive issue I think this is
29:42a
29:42very important issue I think this is a very complex issue a lot more needs to be done you're already
29:47uh deputy leader of uh your party in parliament in Lok Sabha um you have you're sitting MP from your
29:55seat
29:55in Jorhat and if you were to win if you win if you win your seat because you are from
30:01Jorhat
30:05I think life as it comes I think life as it comes
30:32it is that proverbial night before judgment day
30:48Assam polls on the 9th of April
30:54the people seem to have decided
30:57some say the mandate already clear
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