- 19 hours ago
At first glance, the market seems calm and stable. But behind this quiet phase, worries around monsoon performance and rising costs are beginning to raise questions about future momentum, say experts.
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00:10good afternoon you're watching the business today show with me sakshi batra this is where
00:13i get you all the market closing action on the last week first up let's take a look at
00:18what's hot in the corporate and the financial world
00:23markets rally on hopes of iran usp stocks crude slips below 95 a barrel sensex jumps over 1300
00:30points and the nifty trades above 24 200 points the it sector real estate consumer durables and
00:38oil and gas stocks are leading the strong buying momentum today
00:46gqg partners raise stake in adani group companies in the march quarter increases holdings in adani
00:52energy adani green adani enterprises while foreign investors and lic remain cautious with mix to
01:00reduce exposure across key stocks railway bsu stocks rally as railtel jumps over 14 percent
01:10after 565 crore rupees of orders coming in the government boosts fy26 rail capex to 1.53 lakh
01:19crores irfc rvnl irctc t taggar and texmacco also in focus as infra orders are seen flowing ahead
01:32india meteorological department flags below normal monsoon for 2026 with rainfall at 92 percent of
01:40normal el nino risks also loom large raising concerns over agriculture fertilizer demand
01:46and rural consumption and agri stocks are likely to be impacted watch our detailed
01:52coverage on economic and market impact right in the show
01:59air india post a massive 2.4 billion dollar loss and seeks fresh funding from tata group and
02:05singapore airlines reports also indicate as widening losses operational pressures and global disruptions
02:12hit recovery plans straight away on to the breaking news viewers this is with regarding tcs tata consultancy
02:25services the tcs harassment case probe which is now seen intensifying anti-terror squad has now reached narshik
02:33for the probe sources are also indicating sit investigation as far as far as the tcs bpo harassment case is
02:41concerned
02:42remember suspect imran linked uh to the case based in malaysia is being talked about as per the sources
02:49and now for more on this i'm joined by india today's divyesh singh as well seems like uh this is
02:57opening up
02:57a mock can of worms in this case of tcs harassment now divyesh there is a malaysia based imran now
03:05linked
03:05so there's an international link to the tcs harassment case that we've been looking at over the last 48 hours
03:17well sakshi this uh uh there's this suspect whose name has come up during investigation uh the suspect is
03:24who's named as imran and his name was revealed by one of the victims to the investigators following
03:30which uh it was being said that this imran was in touch with the accused six team leaders who've
03:37already been arrested who are working at this bpo who've been accused of attempted religious conversion
03:44religious manipulation hurting religious sense uh sentiments and also of sexual assault and sexual harassment
03:54so these six team leaders were in touch with this suspect named as imran who is said to be based
04:02in
04:02malaysia though it the investigators are yet to get or yet to find out complete details about this imran
04:09whether it is his true name whether it's an actual name or it is a name which is being used
04:16as a front
04:17by the accused persons but this name has come to the fore and also it is being said that he's
04:24based in
04:25malaysia whether he's a preacher whether he's involved is somehow with the accused team leaders who've
04:33already been arrested that is part of the probe that is being investigated anti-terrorism squad of
04:40maharashtra police has reached nashek they are meeting the special investigation team officials and
04:47will be exploring the terror angle if there is any in this case which is being investigated as of now
04:55by the
04:55special investigation team of nashek police there are nine firs as of now three more victims have come
05:03forward firs could be registered by them also they can also register firs against the accused and the
05:10number of accused could rise that is what is being told to us by our sources right uh thanks a
05:18lot for
05:18getting us all those details this is definitely an important breaking news coming in viewers it's not
05:23just limited to the um you know accused who have been arrested but a person now uh internationally
05:29based in malaysia that's being seen as a suspect an anti-terror squad is now going to be looking at
05:36any terror angle if there is as far as the nashek tcs harassment case is concerned we'll continue to get
05:42you all those developments on that front getting back to the stock markets well it's been a good day
05:47after a break of uh yesterday's holiday 24 229 we've been hovering around this level uh saying and staying
05:55in a range bound trade since morning session about 384 points higher in trade uh let's also try and
06:00understand uh what exactly is the way forward from here so let's welcome avinash guruk shakar founder of
06:05avinash mentor research as our market guest today to give us an understanding of where does he see the
06:11markets uh going forward from here avinash how are you looking at the current state of the markets uh seems
06:17like um the markets are looking over and beyond uh the current concerns of west asia war we're already
06:24into the seventh week but uh the ceasefire uh continues to hold at least for now despite the
06:29failed one talks but there are several statements from donald trump and from various parties that
06:34there could be a second round of talks and that could further hint at some kind of a peace returning
06:39at west asia yeah good afternoon sakshi i think markets have uh you know uh rejoiced at uh you know
06:47first signal that the war could end i think today nifty is up by almost uh 400 odd points so
06:52i think
06:52that's a very good signal but i think uh sakshi my sense is that you know these talks would take
06:58a
06:58long time i think obviously the war is not going to continue because you know from whatever we are
07:02hearing from uh you know donald trump i think very clearly uh he wants a solution and i think a
07:08solution will definitely come in but maybe it could take a couple of weeks before we could see something
07:13happening in a concrete shape but i think uh in the near term the markets are happy that the quarter
07:18four season has started on a very good note in fact most of the companies as you must have observed
07:22have delivered very good numbers in fact you know the companies that icsm typically you know the banks
07:28i think my sense is that this number season is going to be much better than what the street expected
07:33and
07:33i think hopefully management commentaries are good i think you're going to see a lot of stock specific
07:37action so we continue to be positive on a stock specific level i think uh on a broader market basis
07:43i think now there is no panic in the market i don't think you're going to see any sell-off
07:47but
07:48how the fis operate i think in the near term will decide the near term trend okay so things are
07:53looking
07:53up remains to be seen how the foreign investors really look at this positivity returning to the d
07:58street and the risk on sentiment is back here uh for investors to track as well but we're going to
08:04be
08:04discussing um you know the theme of what uh all of you should be really tracking in uh ahead of
08:10the
08:10upcoming monsoons and that's with regards to what the imf has pointed out and uh there is a concern
08:16of weak monsoons coming in this time around and that's what we are going to be focusing on let's
08:22also welcome on the panel vijay sardana agricultural economist to join in the discussion as well um
08:27vijay we'll start off with you graf noon um to understand what has the imf really uh what has the
08:34imd
08:34really said at this point in time the med department said at this point in time with regards to the
08:38monsoons um you know is it gravely concerning with regards to what they have predicted as um you
08:45know a below normal monsoon this is uh right because uh there is expectation that around the world even
08:53in america india and other parts of major agriculture bears right okay i think uh we'll we'll try and get
09:05back to uh which i think there is some disturbance in that line but let me go across to avinash
09:11here
09:12avinash i think four or five years we've actually had a normal and above normal monsoon and finally
09:18seeing the imd talk about a below normal monsoon this comes right after we've already seen an impact
09:25of the crude oil prices hinting at some kind of inflationary pressures in case we do see a weak
09:32monsoon this time around how are you looking at things escalating on the inflation and front
09:39i think uh you know my senses sakshi uh you know you know we can't control uh natural factors and
09:46i
09:47think after five years of good monsoon uh maybe due to the lino factor you know this time the monsoon
09:52is going to be weak and i think the first impact will be felt on most of the agri sectors
09:57you know
09:57sectors like fertilizers agrochemicals for that reason you know typically fmcg companies you know
10:03because a lot of demand comes from the rural pockets uh in fact two-wheeler sales you know
10:08typically rural india is a large domestic buyer here so i think you're going to see the effects of this
10:13coming in obviously after the june quarter i think after that you know we will probably get a better
10:18signal from the imd as to what is the progress of the monsoon what is the geo you know what
10:24is the
10:24spread of the monsoon across the country and i think definitely it's going to be a challenge because
10:29inflation is not going to be good uh if you know production of food grains possibly if they do come
10:35under pressure then inflation will go up and that definitely is not good for the market so i think
10:39we'll have to keep a wait and watch but yes this is definitely not a good sign uh yeah i
10:44mean in the
10:45rising uh geopolitical scenario this is the next domestic challenge which the country will face
10:49and i think the second quarter of f527 will reflect in numbers absolutely you know um you know we were
10:56looking at in f526 a lot of rural resilience we were looking at um gst rate cuts that lifted the
11:03sentiments and the sales across fmcg around autos as well white goods too do you think that tailwind
11:10is now waning because of these concerns yeah i think my guess is that uh it may not impact immediately
11:16but the spending power or the purchasing power will definitely get impacted and i think you know
11:21unless the government offers some further benefits in terms of cash incentive or maybe a cash spend kind
11:27of approach uh it's going to be a little difficult for you know consumer durables especially the white
11:33good players maybe electrical appliances these are going to be the items which are going to be hit the
11:38of course so i think you know this is definitely not good news maybe this effect will be reflected
11:43fully in the second half of this financial year but we'll have to wait for the final you know monsoon
11:47uh report which comes maybe after another month or so okay we'll uh again go back to vijay he's back
11:54with us uh vijay you were talking about how uh the below normal monsoon prediction is kind of a concern
12:01right now um you know which are the pockets that we should be watching out for where um you know
12:07the
12:08impact will be felt large in case this prediction comes true and what will happen to the karif crops
12:18see we have to appreciate that 70 percent of uh agriculture irrigation comes from monsoon in india
12:26and if there is a problem in monsoon for whatever reasons even if there is a average if you take
12:32out
12:32even if it is a normal but spread is not proper or timely monsoon is not there it will bound
12:38to have
12:38an impact plus there is already inflationary pressure because of high crude prices international
12:44movements are disturbed fertilizer is in short supply so it is monsoon plus many other external factors
12:51which are going to have a serious impact now if there is a problem in monsoon
12:56kharif season if i look at it there will be low sowing and if there's a low sowing first is
13:02monsoon
13:03then there is a lack of fertilizer then there is a high cost of energy which is leading to high
13:07cost of
13:08labor all these things will have a complications it means there is a direct dependency how the agriculture
13:14is going to perform because of monsoon plus external factors and we have to be mentally ready for
13:21inflationary pressure in indian economy and that is going to across the board because pulses we are
13:27importing an international market dollar devaluation is low so our edible oil we are importing pulses we
13:34are importing all these things prices will further go up because of devaluation of rupee so it's a complex
13:40scenario monsoon is you know adding fuel to fire that is what we have to look from right now lower
13:46monsoon will definitely add fuel to fire at this point in time let me ask you on the rural consumption
13:52what is the expectation then so far in fy26 we were seeing you know positive impact of gst rationalization
14:01and a lot of factors of course positive monsoon for last couple of years as well
14:05that you know fueled into that consumption how would you look at the rural consumption then pan out
14:13see all these uh you know in between boosters like gst rationalization and other things these are not
14:20going to benefit india in the long term these may be momentary you can say during festival season or during
14:26election season we continue to extend a feel-good factor problem is structural unless we focus in india
14:35on development of msme sector which creates manufacturing employment which adds value to the economy and
14:43that will build the purchasing power because huge population is engaged in msme and that is actually
14:50a market for rural economy yeah otherwise i don't see that all these lollipops which we keep giving here
14:57and there because of election consideration will benefit india in a long run in fact we are trying to
15:03suppress the problems of indian economy by these lollipops and covering the defects so we have to go
15:11for a structural reforms so that we boost manufacturing in msme sector and that boost will improve the income
15:20of people engaged there including their trade channels suppliers buyers stock case distributors retailers
15:27everyone and they will boost the consumption which will benefit rural economy as well as msme
15:34and that will also boost the gst of india so very quickly very quickly vijay i wanted to understand from
15:40you
15:41in case this weak monsoon prediction does come true what will be the impact on agri gtp growth that's where
15:47the
15:47concern is you did talk about inflationary pressures that we have to get used to what about the impact on
15:52gtp
15:53growth from agri sector see you have to appreciate that one kg of fertilizer adds to three kg of
16:01production two to three kgs of production if there is a shortage of fertilizer we are almost importing
16:0740 50 percent of fertilizer requirement from hurmuz now that state is closed fertilizer is not coming
16:13availability is in a short supply supported by bad monsoon so even if i say that agriculture productivity
16:21goes down by five to ten percent i'm not saying too much but even five to ten time five to
16:27ten percent
16:27either shrinkage in cropping means planting of the crop or even the productivity and may also have an
16:35impact on quality or yield aspect as well so if you say even ten percent declined it will have a
16:42significant
16:42impact on inflation and inflation means overall consumption will go down and rural economy will
16:49suffer and agriculture when there is no production obviously price realization will be less that is
16:55where we have to be very important that hoardings and inflationary pressure state government must see
17:02that there is no you know cartel in mondays to jack up the price for the consumers got that thank
17:09you so
17:09much vijay for being with us on the program and helping us understand the current situation there's another big
17:14breaking news that we want to update all our viewers with and this is with regards to the india u
17:19.s trade
17:19talks indian delegation will be visiting us from april 20th to april 22nd viewers this is india is going to
17:27be
17:27sending a delegation to the us next week our trade data has also come in remember india's f526
17:34merchandise exports have come in at 441 billion dollars march exports have slipped by seven and a
17:42half percent coming in at 38.9 billion dollars year on year march imports have also declined by six and
17:48a
17:48half percent at 59.5 billion dollars year on year the trade deficit has however narrowed this is a good
17:55sign
17:5520.6 billion dollars in march but exports to waste west asia have dropped by 57 percent in march and
18:03that's something that needs to be watched out for going forward from here remember india's trade
18:08delegation will be in the us and we could probably hope for further talks with regards to india u.s
18:14trade
18:15deals that have been underway but they got stalled because of the situation let's move on to another
18:23major news as well this is something that we'll be watching out for and now the major development is
18:28coming in from air india which has reportedly posted a substantial 2.4 billion dollar loss
18:34highlighting continued stress in its recovery journey the airline is now reportedly in discussions
18:40with tata group and singapore airlines for fresh capital infusion and my colleague richa sharma is
18:45joining with more details on the same uh richa finally we are seeing some impact as far as balance
18:51sheet is concerned now on air india we've seen how the west asia crisis impacted the entire aviation
18:58industry air india has talked about a 2.4 billion dollar loss right there highlighting continued stress in
19:04its recovery journey the airline is now looking at raising some funds from both tata group and singapore
19:10airlines how grave are the concerns uh thank you sakshi you know airline has been facing uh fiscal
19:19pressure since the start initial right primarily for april may they were in you know they were in the
19:27green zone but since the crash air india crash which we saw on june 12 they have been facing pressure
19:33they had to cut uh you know their flight especially some of their aircrafts were sent uh for renewals
19:41and some of them were sent for refurbishments they had to cut short some of the things then came the
19:48airspace closure because of pakistan so air india would have to take a longer route to fly and they
19:54go to the badly one of the most badly impacted in sick was that when you come from this crisis
20:02to take a flight okay um i think there's some disturbance richa we'll get back to you but let
20:10me go across to avinash uh and uh try and understand from you sir as to how are you looking
20:16at the current
20:17concerns from the aviation industry uh this is air india it's not a listed company right now but we are
20:22clearly seeing some pressure built in um losses of 2.4 billion dollars being reported um and stress
20:29continuing to be seen um you know there was a lot of onus on the tata group to revive air
20:35india as a
20:36brand that will be looked up you know globally as an airline that could be seen as a poster one
20:43from
20:43the indian skies but at the same time the airline is facing a lot of troubles there how are you
20:49looking
20:50at the situation developing the tata group is facing one after the other a lot of troubles on
20:54the tata trusts there are a lot of issues and now with the revival in air india tcs itself has
21:01its own
21:01troubles right now i think uh sakshi you have mentioned it right that uh you know air india was
21:08taken over with a lot of fancy and i think markets expected that tatas would definitely bring their magic
21:14back uh in a very short period of time but i think you know the business is very competitive
21:18uh most importantly you know i think uh the cost element in terms of the employee cost
21:23are significantly higher as compared to other private sector players like indigo and most
21:29importantly you know in a competitive scenario when oil prices have gone up uh other overheads prices
21:34have gone up it's going to be very challenging for almost every airline company and only those
21:39companies which have got deep cash pockets are going to survive and are going to make uh you know the
21:43final you know you know positioning for themselves uh i don't think money is going to be a problem the
21:49tatas would definitely get additional funding but i think going forward you know the markets would look
21:54at the overall operational performance of the airline in terms of their capacity utilization in terms of
21:59their cost management so i think it remains to be seen maybe for the next 12 to 18 months it's
22:04going
22:04to be a challenging period for them to get back into the black and you know deliver positive numbers
22:09but overall aviation sector is definitely going through a challenging period uh food prices the
22:14way they are i think you know markets are looking forward that some solution comes uh from this
22:19geopolitical war if this happens then i think it could be a small breather otherwise i think the next
22:24couple of quarters are going to be challenging for almost all the airline teams okay let's quickly look
22:30at how the markets have shut shop viewers and then we'll take your questions with regards to um
22:34uh you know the queries that are coming in with avinash as well but 24 214 that's the closing level
22:39of the nifty 371 is um the kind of search that we've seen in terms of points on the nifty
22:45bank it's
22:46almost a 700 point search today 1.2 percent higher and we've also seen a lot of sectors supporting the
22:52momentum today look at the it sector it's up by 2.8 percent after some days of weakness that we
22:58actually
22:58saw uh the broader markets in fact doing much better than the benchmarks you could clearly see 2.2
23:04percent rally as far as the mid caps is concerned uh you're also looking at the small caps 2.3
23:08percent higher so the broader markets have really outperformed the benchmark indices in the trading
23:14session today we've also uh looked at this entire momentum coming into zomato power grade htfc life
23:22kind of shares those are the pockets that have moved up three to five odd percent higher in trade
23:27in dalko tech mahindra wipro are some of the other stocks that have also moved up in trade and
23:32on the lower end uh we have dr reddy's party et al and icse bank declining a bit in trade
23:37but amnash
23:39quickly help us understand uh you know what do we expect from here is a bottom now clearly made do
23:44we
23:44prepare ourselves for higher levels on the nifty and what would you suggest the investors do at this
23:49point in time now well i think uh since the earnings season has started sakshi it's better that we focus
23:56on companies you know which have come out with uh their quarter four numbers i would say that
24:01you know a bulk of the company numbers are yet to come out so i think we need to take
24:04a stock specific
24:05call on a case-to-case basis but i think broadly markets are going to be volatile i don't think
24:10the
24:10markets have bottomed out and any negative surprise comes either from us or iran can actually create a
24:17little bit of more volatility so i think you know we'll have to wait and watch for the next couple
24:21of
24:21weeks uh once that happens i think hopefully some solution comes in the markets would definitely
24:26start moving upward but yes the panic is gone and i don't think the markets are going to collapse but
24:30it will be a range-bound market after today's 400 point rally maybe tomorrow the markets would
24:35possibly consolidate so i think it's better to take a stock specific call and stay invested and
24:40use the dips to add into quality stocks okay we have a query for you avinash from our viewer so
24:46sheil from indore he asks you it versus new age tech stocks which sector is better place for returns
24:53over the next one year what would you recommend i think it can be a kind of a dark cause
24:58because you
24:59know most of the it companies have been beaten down very badly and if you see the numbers of tcs
25:03you know very strong numbers very strong commentary i think most of the large caps like infosys or maybe
25:09itself technology is tcs one could definitely expect a much better return because hopefully you know
25:14once the u.s market settles down uh you're going to get a good entry point now and i think
25:19the risk
25:19reward will be much better compared to the new age companies all right okay thank you so much
25:24then aminash for being with us on the show and for helping us with all your insights on the markets
25:28and various pockets that we've discussed viewers in case you do have any questions about your
25:33investments in mutual funds in sips stocks or even gold related questions then please do send them to
25:38us on the number that's flashing on your screens we'll be happy to address that with our top market
25:43experts with that it's a wrap on the business today show thank you so much for watching in but do
25:47stay
25:47tuned on to india today and of course we'll be back at 9 or 5 a.m tomorrow to track
25:51all the market
25:52opening action
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