- 6 days ago
After days of uncertainty, equity markets bounced back, lifting investor mood. However, experts warn that the recovery may not be strong enough to signal a lasting turnaround, with concerns around the rupee, oil prices and global risks still weighing heavily.
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00:09good afternoon dear viewers you're watching the business today show with me sakshi batra
00:13which is where i get you all the stock markets closing action of the last 30 minutes on the
00:18lal street let's take a look at what's hot in the corporate and the financial world
00:26stock markets have erased most of the day's losses in the afternoon trade with it stocks
00:30leading the recovery the sensex has recovered over 1 000 points from the day's lows the nifty
00:35has gained over 350 points though also the broader market sentiment has continued to stay weak amid
00:42sell-off in auto stocks metals and psu banks indian rupee has hit a fresh record low of 96.3
00:54against the u.s dollar falling 33 pese from friday's close rising crude oil prices amid the iran war
01:01and soaring global bond yields are putting pressure on the currency navneet damani of motilal oswal
01:08financial services tells business today and says the rupee could weaken even further to 98.5
01:14to even 100 rupees per dollar
01:20bharti airtel has now overtaken htfc bank to become india's second most valued company with a market
01:25capitalization of 11.8 lakh crore rupees airtel shares have outperformed htfc bank in 2026 while
01:32reliance industries has remained the most valued firm
01:39defense stocks are witnessing a sharp selling pressure with kochi in shipyard hl and bharat
01:44dynamics leading the decline today week quarter for earnings delayed tejas mk1a deliveries and
01:50execution concerns have hit the sentiments dragging hl shares over 11 percent in the last three trading
01:56sessions india's largest car maker maruti suzuki has started commercial production and its second
02:06karkoda plant in haryana with annual capacity of 2.5 lakh units with this expansion maruti suzuki's total
02:13production capacity has risen to 26.5 lakh vehicles per year
02:26let's straight up we look at how the markets are trading at this point in time viewers when we look
02:30at the nifty at this point it's of course in the green 23,644 at this point in time just
02:37about at the
02:38day's high point we are looking at a sharp recovery that's taken place from the lows of the day the
02:43nifty
02:44has recovered about 350 points already it's the it stocks that have to be thanked today with the kind of
02:49reversal and trend that we are seeing two and a half percent almost higher in trade for the it stocks
02:54large caps mid caps all of them are supporting this kind of a move that we are seeing today
02:59followed by some of the other sectors that have also seen some buying emerge in the second half
03:03you have pharma stocks private banks financial services that have also contributed to this recovery
03:08in trade on the nifty today its names like tech mahindra infuses hcl technologies and tcs that are all
03:14rallying in trade along with bharti et al which has now become the second most valued firm in the
03:19company in terms of the stock markets and we are also looking at bajaj twins bajaj mincev
03:24and bajaj finance now driving the recovery in the financial services sector let me go across to
03:29our guest of the day abhishek basu malik co-founder and fund manager of srirama managers pms is now
03:34joining in hi abhishek and thank you so much for taking the time out for this conversation
03:39well first up a quick talk about how are you seeing this extreme recovery that's taken place in the
03:45session today and the reversal of trend what does it have to really signify and of course what is the
03:52key reason behind this and can we sustain is the most important question good afternoon to you and
03:58all the viewers see i think the challenge is that even though nifty is you know has recovered but if
04:05i
04:05look at the you know the overall breadth in the market it's not very you know it's not very strong
04:10a lot of stocks if i look at nifty 500 i think uh roughly 370 stocks are actually in the
04:17red so uh
04:19it's it's not a broad-based recovery which is what uh ideally uh we would want to see uh so
04:26i think there
04:26is a a sense of uh you know a sense of foreboding or a sense of caution in the air
04:35uh until and unless we get
04:38to know that uh the iran u.s situation is getting resolved uh primarily the main concern is that of
04:47the crude and the rupee i think these are the two things that are keeping the market worried
04:52absolutely the markets may stay volatile looking at the you know fluctuating situation on crude oil
04:58prices as well as the rupee remember the rupee has hit a fresh record low today and amidst this
05:04rising global uncertainty and surging crude oil prices there is further pressure on the rupee in
05:08fact we also spoke with namini damani the senior group vice president and head of research at
05:12motilal oswal financial services who's warned that indian currency could weaken even further
05:16from the current levels let's listen into what he had to say as we speak the rupee continues to
05:22depreciate because there is some kind of a panic which is triggered um maybe from the
05:27finance ministry or from whatever statement we've come from the political bureau because uh we've
05:36revised duty for silver we have revised import quota for gold and silver both and uh not only that
05:42rbi intervention as you pointed out has gone uh probably pretty flat after a knee-jerk reaction
05:48prices continue to head towards lifetime low depreciating levels only so it's like a uh doomsday
05:55scenario probably what we are going through and it looks like there could be some more pain as far
06:01as the rupee goes and i will not be surprised if this kind of momentum continues to take it to
06:0698 and a half and probably hundred also the rupee could slip to 98.5 or even hundred to the
06:15dollar
06:15that's the key expectation there or the worry or the anticipation at this point in time uh let me go
06:21across to mr basu malik the rupee constantly keeps falling of course we all know what is this leading
06:27to uh this is uh definitely making things costlier back home for a lot of uh consumers investors
06:33everything that we use today uh with the usage of rupee is now getting more expensive but give me an
06:40understanding of what can be a major impact if the rupee continues to fall and hits that psychologically
06:47important hundred per dollar mark it's already been such a sharp uh you know free fall of the
06:54rupee from 85 to 96 where we are at currently over the last couple of months um now need the
07:01money was
07:01highlighting that so many times the rbi intervened but it's still uh continuing to decline what will
07:07happen if the rupee really falls till a hundred level so uh first of all i think uh you know
07:13if you
07:13recall uh when the rupee was around 92 we were discussing uh you know i said that uh i was
07:21looking
07:21at around 96.5 uh levels uh for the rupee and and pretty much we are there so my sense
07:28uh and and
07:30there's not too much of uh data that i can back it up with but my sense is we will
07:35see government and
07:36rbi intervention coming in uh maybe 97 is where we could get to before it again sort of uh spools
07:45off a bit longer term i don't know what will happen but short term i think uh you know uh
07:50the pressure
07:51may ease because of interventions from the rbi now coming to your question of what happens if it
07:57breaches 100 nothing catastrophic happens i mean uh what's the difference between uh 90 92 94 95 it's the
08:04trend uh or you know or the decline that matters so uh it's a psychological level of cost but uh
08:12per se
08:13you know there's no difference between a 99 and 101 uh for example absolutely so it's a psychological
08:21mark and uh the way we are seeing uh you know our import bills inflate and the impact on current
08:28account that's likely to continue uh you know with the rupee falling as well and now let's also
08:33understand what ace fund managers are also and how are they viewing the markets uh with fuel prices
08:38rising global markets looking gloomy and many young investors now almost panicking because the
08:44markets have not gone anywhere uh the key question is is this truly a crisis that has never been seen
08:50before rajeev tucker of ppfas mutual fund has urged investors to in fact zoom out and look at the bigger
08:57picture let's look at what he had to say when it comes to the current scenario in the markets and
09:02what
09:02to expect going forward uh in the immediate context things look very gloomy and uh as you mentioned
09:11various things uh depreciating currency rising oil prices uh outflows from foreign investors if we
09:21zoom out a bit if we look at the longer context and uh partly uh india is a young country
09:29a lot of people
09:30would be uh investors in their uh mid-20s or 30s they may not have the long context uh in
09:39the early 90s when
09:40there was a oil crisis uh of something similar where iraq had invaded kuwait and there was this gulf war
09:49uh at that time we had to actually pledge our gold uh we had to put our gold on to
09:56a plane fly it to western
09:58countries pledge it to uh raise some small amount of money to keep our imports uh going uh rupee had
10:08very steep declines at that point in time and uh we had similar situation so today while
10:17uh we are seeing prices increase so we have seen a roughly three rupee increase in fuel prices at the
10:25pump level this would be anywhere between uh three to four five percent depending on whether one is
10:32looking at petrol or diesel even assuming that another 10 rupees increase were to come this will
10:39be a 10 percent kind of increase which is steep and i'm not trying to minimize the impact on the
10:46common
10:46people but if we look at the historical context this is not the first time this is happening in uh
10:532007
10:54there was a steep uh oil price increase uh in uh post the russia ukraine war there was a steep
11:02increase in
11:03global uh oil prices so it is a fact of life today uh luckily for india and for the world
11:10there are alternatives now where we have uh ethanol blending which has taken place in a big way in india
11:19we have uh the alternatives in terms of uh the electric vehicles which will uh hopefully pick up in
11:27demand so this too shall pass uh i don't think there's anything specific to worry about in the
11:33current context this too shall pass that's the word that's coming in from rajeev tucker but amidst
11:40this rising concerns of west asia and the impact on global markets its market regulator sebi's chairman
11:47tuheen kanta pande who said that indian markets continue to remain resilient despite the elevated
11:52volatility is also warned of inflationary and spillover risks if the conflict prolongs longer
11:58let's listen in to what the market regulators chief had to say as you know the current crisis is quite
12:06difficult in terms of the reach it has on rest of the world particularly through oil and it is both
12:15price and supply shock on oil to the rest of the world all the economies have got affected
12:23obviously there are inflationary risks to this and also spillover effect second order effect will also
12:31come on the economy now government is taking different steps to do that uh i think uh the sooner this
12:43crisis gets resolved the better it is uh for the rest of the world uh however uh i can say
12:51that indian markets
12:52have remained quite resilient although volatility has increased but it is not beyond uh something which
13:01markets cannot handle abhishe coming to you uh so we are hearing uh that market experts like you um like
13:11rajivji a big fund manager and even the markets regulator chief is all they're all talking about
13:17how the markets have remained resilient the impact has been felt globally and that we might just come
13:24out in case the crisis resolves soon and that's where the hopes are pinned upon at this point in time
13:30for all those fresh investors or recent investors in the markets uh you know for them looking at the
13:36nifty which has not gone anywhere in the last one and a half um years at all uh this seems
13:41to be a
13:42pain point that you know the markets are continuing to bleed uh the the portfolios are company to
13:46continuing to bleed so how how much patience is to be had and what's the strategy in this kind of
13:52a market
13:53then so so first of all i think i completely agree with rajiv uh that this is a passing phase
14:00uh it's not
14:01something that that you know people uh who've been in the markets for long uh have not seen before so
14:09it's it's not something that's happening for the first time and equities by its nature uh you know
14:15it's it's not a it's not like you're putting money in a fixed deposit that every year you will get
14:20a fixed
14:20return uh we had a number of good years uh post covid uh we had about now uh slightly more
14:31than a year and a half uh of subdued returns and that is the nature of the market uh it's
14:37it's not
14:38something that is uh you know that should actually concern a lot of people in fact the longer uh you
14:45know we go through this kind of pain the the the subsequent run-up is going to be even better
14:51because it's like a coiled spring right so you know ultimately if you you just look look at the
14:59corporate results that uh is coming uh you know from from india inc and you will see that the results
15:05have dramatically improved this quarter i mean last quarter was quite good this quarter uh till now
15:10uh eps growth on on the median you know about 18 1800 or companies have come up with results
15:17the median eps growth is close to 19 percent uh the median pad growth is 23 you know roughly 23
15:25percent
15:25and that's something that is uh has been really really missing uh over the last uh one and a half
15:31years so if corporate results continue to do well uh then sooner or uh you know later markets will
15:39recover and when once it recovers then you will get another you know good clean year year and a half
15:46two years of bull run so it's very you know difficult for people to uh you know come out of
15:53uh you know the mindset that uh you know what is happening currently is what is always going to
16:00happen right when when there is a bull market everybody thinks that it's going to last forever
16:04when there's a bear market people think that's going to last forever yeah none of that is going to
16:09happen right i mean after a bull market we'll get a bear market after a bear market we'll get a
16:14bull
16:14market so my sense is we are probably closing in you know somewhere at the end of the you know
16:20bearish
16:20phase uh even in the short term i think uh u.s uh bond deals are getting to a place
16:28where
16:28uh something has to give right i mean uh they have to resolve this otherwise it will cause uh inflation
16:34uh which is i mean already inflation is uh you know yes i think pretty high in the u.s
16:41so uh something
16:42is going to give in the next one or two weeks uh that's going to probably you know make things
16:48better
16:49absolutely so we are seeming to be at the end of a bearish phase and in case in the next
16:54one to two
16:55weeks if we get some more signs of things getting resolved that's when uh you know the recovery could
17:00probably uh step in further let's also shift focus to what's happening around the world g7 finance
17:05ministers are met early this morning in paris they're seeking a common ground on tackling economic
17:10tensions and global imbalances in the wake of the bond market sell-off that abhishek also pointed out
17:16and over the inflationary concerns from the iran war these two-day meeting also follows a summit
17:21between u.s president donald trump and chinese president xi jinpin in beijing that yielded few
17:27concrete economic breakthroughs and the tensions over taiwan and trade simmered beneath a display of
17:34diplomatic cordiality so let's uh go across to my colleague karishma who's been joining in
17:38with the perspective on this karishma um you know what could this meeting really yield at a time when
17:44we are looking at a fragmented world uh it started off with the trade tensions then the war and supply
17:50chain risks and the energy crisis that it has all led to what is this meeting seeking to do
17:59um so actually this meeting comes in the backdrop of a very important time that we are looking at of
18:06course amidst the iran war crisis where the biggest concern currently is on the rising
18:12crude oil prices and how the global markets have been reacting on increasing inflation and of course
18:18volatility of the bond market a direct implication and direct impact comes on india because one
18:24uh evidently the rising crude oil prices have already caused a lot of uh challenge and consequences
18:31to india in terms of its uh supply chain issues and also in weakening of rupee uh and uh on
18:39the
18:39inflation concerns that the rbi has also been now working on but the second biggest impact and
18:44challenge is uh from a market perspective from a monetary policy perspective and the volatility of
18:50bond market which has also somewhere uh influenced foreign investors to think of stability and security
18:58rather than investing currently and um that is where the challenge is but uh the the pro out of this
19:06or the opportunity out of this for india is that the g7 finance ministers meeting is also going to
19:13address some alternative uh sourcing besides china and to look at alternative options beside china when it
19:20comes to at least the rare earth metals or components related to electric vehicles or semiconductors and
19:27india has already started building on this and this is where the china plus one policy debate comes back
19:33uh where india could stand could hold an opportunity we just heard a sebi chairman also say that indian
19:41economy is resilient and so far india is one of the least um one of the economies that has been
19:48least
19:48impacted in terms or least impacted in terms of direct impact to consumers we've just increased the
19:55petrol prices after three months of big challenge um so all hopes that uh this meeting could actually do
20:02something good for us right thanks karishma for getting us all those details in fact uh it's um you
20:08know the back home the union ministers who are now talking about how they're keeping their focus
20:13continuing on boosting uh the country's trade ambitions commerce minister piyush koel has also
20:20talked about how india's targeting exports were two trillion dollars over the next five years
20:24he's also hinted that several free trade agreements could also come into force this year
20:29as they continue to move through legal ratification potentially giving a major boost to exports
20:34and global market access for indian businesses let's listen in to what he had to say
20:39a few years ago
20:40and then after a break the rest of the other FTAs are now that are now
20:44there are still people who have been working on paper work and legal documentation that are
20:49going on after one another one will be a place to go on after one another one will be a
20:54place
20:54like the days of the future in the next five years bharat has been planned that we will
21:07All right, let's now look at how the markets are, you know, getting into the closing action
21:14now, 23,645, that's the last print on the Nifty today, just saves the blushes about
21:22two points higher as far as the Nifty is concerned, just, you know, seeing that green on the screen
21:27right after a day full of volatility, it's the Nifty IT index that continued to soar at the high
21:34point, 2.7% higher is where it is ended at, you know, pharma index also pulled up smart,
21:40about half a percent of a move, and of course, we are looking at private banks that also inched up
21:46higher by 0.1%, the broader markets, however, continue to reel under pressure, but IT names
21:51and IT names across the board, TechMind, Ryan Persis, Wipro, TCS, all of them rallied along
21:57with even broader names, like Persistent Systems, CoForge, Oracle Financial Services, these were
22:03the big names that rallied in trade.
22:06Very quickly coming to Abhishek and asking you, on the IT stocks, we have a query from one of
22:12our viewers as well, Abhishek.
22:14This is Anshal from Mumbai who says, is the IT stocks rally sustainable?
22:18Can I add into the sector for the next one year? What would you say? Of course, we have seen
22:22some
22:23support coming in from the rupee, but, you know, the sector has been bogged by a lot of issues like
22:28AI disruption, like fading growth, you know, hopes going forward from here. What would you say?
22:34I think mid-cap IT is, you know, if a person has a year or more time horizon, then mid
22:41-cap IT
22:42companies may not be a, you know, bad bet to look at. Valuations are cheap, you know, growth
22:48is there. A lot of the mid-cap IT companies have, you know, reported quite robust results.
22:54Management commentary is quite good. So, you know, look at more in the mid-cap space than
23:00in the large and the mega-cap ones.
23:05Right. We also have another question from Prateek from Baranasi who truly asks you, is
23:09it worth investing in gold jewelry and gold finance stocks at this point in time? We've
23:14seen a painful last week because of Prime Minister's, you know, advisory that came in
23:20and therefore all these companies saw a decline in the stock markets, fearing a sharp drop in
23:26consumer demand. What do you think is happening here? I think gold, you know, per se will continue
23:33to do reasonably okay. They may not see the kind of rise that we saw over the last one,
23:38one and a half years. It can continue to do well simply because of the fact that, you know,
23:46of geopolitics, of the fact that global central banks continue to buy gold as, you know, as a
23:53reserve currency kind of a bet. So, overall, gold can continue to do well. Gold finance stocks,
24:00you'll have to, you know, you'll have to take your call. I don't, I'm not very bullish on gold
24:06finance as of now. I think a lot of the gains have already been made. So, I'm not very keen
24:15on buying
24:15into gold finance right now. Okay. We also have Sartak from Hyderabad asking you the next query and
24:21this one is on defense and shipbuilder stocks. Are they at value buying levels at this point in
24:27time? What would you say? Definitely not. They're not at, you know, they're not cheap by valuation.
24:33But, you know, if you consider the kind of order books that they have, the kind of opportunity size
24:39over the next, you know, three to five years or more, then you can make individual cases for some
24:48of the companies or, in fact, from, for actually probably for a large number of them. Because
24:53defense is something where it's not a short-term theme. If you see globally, you'll find that
25:01after what has happened in the last four, five years, Europe will have to rearm themselves.
25:09India is going to go, India is already going through a very strong phase of rearming itself.
25:15You'll have Japan, you'll have South Korea, Australia, every country pretty much is going to
25:22spend a lot, a lot more money on rearming themselves. So defense as a theme is going to
25:29continue to do well for the next, at least three to five years. So it's, you know, as an approach,
25:36you can look at creating a basket of stocks, you know, where the businesses are slightly diverse and
25:44they're into different parts of the defense value chain and create a portfolio that way.
25:51All right. Okay. Mr. Basu Malik, thank you so much for taking the time out and for advising all our
25:56viewers with their queries and giving us an insight onto the markets. Good to have you with us as always.
26:00With that, viewers, it's a wrap on the Business Today show. In case you too have any questions about
26:04stock investments, gold, mutual fund related questions that you have, then send us your questions on the
26:10number that's flashing on your screens. And of course, we'll be back tomorrow morning at 9am to
26:15catch all the opening action with Abba Bakaya. Stay tuned for that as well. Thank you so much
26:18and stay tuned on India Today.
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