- 4 days ago
Indian markets ended the day on a surprising note, with a sudden jump in the final minutes of trade. After a slow and dull session, this sharp rise has raised an important question: Is stability finally making a comeback? An expert shares his view.
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00:00good afternoon and welcome to market closing on our collab show between business today and
00:20India today TV just after 3 and we're here to get you all the closing action let's take a look at
00:25what's catching everyone's attention today rupee in a free fall crashes more than 40 PSA in trade
00:32to cross the 90 to a dollar level for the first time ever it's now one of Asia's worst performers
00:38having fallen 5% against the dollar this year the US tariffs standoff and foreign portfolio
00:44investors sell-off in the markets play havoc with the currency
00:48benchmark indices under pressure for the third straight session as investors turn cautious
00:58after the plunge in the rupee more clarity from the central bank is expected only on Friday when
01:03RBI announces its interest rate decision nifty IT is the only NSE index in the green PSU
01:08bank's biggest losers after the government rules out an increase in FDI limits
01:13retail portion of the me show IPO subscribed within an hour as the 5240 crore issue hit the
01:24street this morning gray market premium rockets to 45 percent the IPO of aerospace component maker
01:30equus is already subscribed nearly three times with a huge demand among retail investors
01:36mcx silver hits a fresh record high of one lakh eighty four thousand seven hundred twenty seven
01:46rupees per kilo as the rupee weakens sharply and global supply tightens high demand again brings in
01:53gray market premiums gold also stayed near record levels now in the comics driven by safe haven
01:59demand and expectations of fed rate cuts India and Russia are set to sign major trade agreements to
02:07lower duties and ease non-tariff barriers a deal is also near certain to allow Indian skilled and
02:13semi-skilled workers to Russia something described by foreign office officials as the single most
02:18important development in president Putin's visit beginning tomorrow
02:22all right let's take a look at the markets then this afternoon and you know while it's not really
02:36been looking pretty on the index in light of the currency fee fall as well as really expectations on
02:42hearing a little bit more from the rbi on friday as well as from the fed uh it's still even steven on
02:48the index but advanced decline ratio has massively skewed towards the declines right now let me bring in
02:53shalindra but nagar who's also joining us as always shell first let's look at the setup we're just
02:58counting down to close 20 minutes to go it's not really looking pretty
03:01well uh abha i would uh look at the glass as half full uh 25 900 has been tested in early morning
03:13and we are now at 25 987 that's a really really uh strong uh hit back by the nifty against the
03:22backdrop of what you mentioned uh a record low on the rupee so five consecutive days of record lows
03:29uh on the rupee uh i think it should run out of steam and you should see the reverse move
03:35happening on the nifty as also aided by the nifty it index and to some extent uh uh private sector
03:44banks like htfc and icica bank so i'm imagining that we'll have a close above 26 000 and there you
03:51have it on the screen uh that's very very positive for the market abha okay well india is the chief
03:58economic advisor mr nageshwaran has said that the government is not alarmed by what's happening
04:03on the currency he's not sleeping not losing any sleep over it uh he's spoken about how the
04:08currency has been largely stable over the last two years and saying that the weakness is not yet
04:12translated into higher inflation or hurt export competitiveness so he's not sounding too concerned
04:18right now he does talk about the the global backdrop in terms of rising u.s interest rates
04:25geopolitical strains tighter final financial conditions saying that it's really against
04:30this backdrop that the fall must be seen and it's been relatively stable against many of the other
04:34emerging market currencies over the last two to three years conditions are only set to improve
04:39going forward in 2026 the rupee is slipping about five percent this year so far also today crossing
04:45that 90 rupee mark and that's really what was troubling everyone uh when we saw the kind of pressure
04:50that was building up on the currency this morning we've got osho krishan also joining our senior
04:54research analyst and on technicals and derivatives from angel one osho good afternoon let's get your
05:00take on the index shell makes a fair point we have also seen a stronger support coming in at lower
05:05levels and looking to end once again perhaps flat on the index a very good afternoon abha firstly thank
05:13you for inviting me at the show well yes no doubt for throughout the session we have seen a very
05:18lackluster trading a day for for indian equity market but in last 30 minutes or 15 minutes so
05:24we have seen a very strong resurgence from very strong support of 25 900 so i'm expecting that now the
05:30market have seen some kind of stability around the 21 day exponential moving average so 25 900 and 25
05:37850 is a very strong support level so dip should be argued well and in last 15 minutes we have already
05:43seen a very decent recovery from the lows so i'm expecting now the market can see some kind of further
05:49recovery going forward though outlook remains on the positive front especially bank nifty has seen a
05:56major trigger because majority of the private sector banks have started gaining decent traction in the
06:01last one hour or maybe two hours so from that point of view i'm expecting that
06:07bank nifty can see some kind of a strong resurgence from current levels 59 500 on the technical levels
06:13is the resistance but once it breaches the zone of 59 500 then from here onwards
06:18bank nifty can reach the zone of 60 000 in the coming trading cycle
06:22okay talking about the bank nifty and share let's focus on the psbs for a moment because some
06:30clarification coming in on the expansion of those fdi limits and the government saying that's really not
06:35on the cards with immediate effect at this point of time yes that's led to a bit of a drop when it
06:41comes to the psu bank index three percent actually uh what are you making of that news and it's and the
06:46outlook uh you know in light of that on some of those key names within that basket that we've been
06:51looking at over the past few weeks yeah abha the interesting development that i wish to point out is that
06:59the rise of 400 points on the bank nifty is from an intraday low despite the three percent cut
07:07on the psu banking index where the government has said that uh they don't have a move to raise the fdi
07:14limit to 49 from 20 so all the more strength we are just waiting for a particular trigger in the nifty
07:22uh say around 26 40 if that should happen then even the nifty will turn into a buy zone on a
07:30uh intraday basis and that should sort of keep bulls happy because you've had a 300 350 point
07:38correction on the nifty if not more i think 450 point correction on the nifty over the last three
07:44trading sessions now all heavyweights are in strength hdfc icici access kotak sbi and that's
07:51pulling the nifty up plus the it stuff so all's well let's see what the close is today
07:56okay but i do want to talk about those public sector names particularly i think we were tracking
08:02sbi canada and i think one more because they actually saw a run up on the back of the reform buzz
08:07shell so i do want to address that in terms of what changes for them in light of this clarification
08:11i'll come back to you on that in just a moment we've got some breaking news for you on your screen
08:15there is a change to the government's uh sanchar sati mandate pre-installation on mobiles is not
08:21mandatory sanchar sati can be removed at will uh the government uh says that the one and a half or
08:271.4 core users have downloaded the app 2 000 fraud incidents have been reported per day that's the
08:35latest coming in that the sanchar sati can and will be removed at will uh some new mandates coming
08:42in with regards to pre-installation on mobiles it's not mandatory anymore a lot of frauds have been
08:47reported and it can be removed at will about 1.4 core users have downloaded the app that's what
08:54is the number that we've heard uh come in from the government and um about 2 000 fraud incidents have
09:01been reported per day let's go right across to aishwarya for more on this and what this means
09:06aishwarya take us through how significant this uh this program really was and why the government's
09:11pulling back what have been the key issues well the mandate earlier to pre-install this application
09:18sanchar sati across made in india and imported smartphones uh was earlier given by the dot on the
09:2528th of november including the likes of uh you know android devices and apple of course uh you saw
09:32that they didn't want to be on board as far as pre-installation of the of this application is
09:37concerned what the government uh right now is saying is that the because there's increasing acceptance
09:42uh remember yesterday there were about 10x or 6 lakh downloads of this application and you saw
09:48a lot of hue and cry a lot of negative comments coming in uh with allegations of snooping
09:54just in one day we saw 6 lakh downloads of this application and so the government is saying
10:00because of this increasing acceptance they are now they've now not decided to make the pre-installation
10:07mandatory for all mobile handsets so a big update as far as sanchar sati is concerned the air has been
10:14cleared uh the whole matter about disabling uninstalling has been put to rest by uh union minister
10:21jothra aditya also yesterday and of course uh they've also thrown some numbers that uh so far
10:281.4 crore users have downloaded this app and 2 000 fraud incidents uh are being reported per day as far
10:37as the sanchar sati app is concerned uh this is what their initiative was it it has many other languages
10:44and what the government has said that um people who are senior citizens they don't realize how to
10:50mitigate all of these frauds and pre-installation would have helped this um even in tier two and
10:55tier three cities those who are digitally not so savvy this application would have helped them so
11:00that's the word coming in from the ministry of telecommunications so far
11:04ashwarya thanks for that just to recap for our viewers though ashwarya before i let you go
11:09what was the purpose of the sanchar sati app because uh you know while sim binding mandates
11:14can help with mass volume fraud i think there were some technical issues uh in terms of mule accounts
11:20or digital arrests which you know like you just uh alluded to uh sometimes uh you know lead to
11:26misrepresentation and it's tough to kind of find the the actual fraud accounts versus those that are
11:31just not properly implemented but what was the purpose because this created such a row when it was first
11:36introduced right although you can sort of detect spam numbers and you know some of these fraud
11:42financial frauds that happen even digital arrests have been uh quite uh you've seen some examples of
11:49this in the past uh when you download the sanchar sati app there are five services that they offer to
11:55you you can report the suspected fraud uh fraud communication instantly as soon as you get a call you
12:01can report that through the application if you've lost or uh or your phone has been stolen that mobile
12:07handset uh by tracing your imei number will be able to uh lock it uh at that instance if you report uh
12:15some sort of lost or stolen uh handset of yours so so that misuse can be prevented and uh you also are
12:22able to recognize if this handset that you've bought right now uh is from a genuine oem which is an
12:29equipment manufacturer or a handset manufacturer if this is a original samsung apple or any other
12:36handset that you've bought so these are few of the things that help you recognize uh through the
12:41sanchar sati app is what the government has said we also asked the mos of telecom yesterday
12:47why the need for the for that application when the website already exists as far as sanchar sati is
12:53concerned and he mentioned that the growing number of financial frauds for especially for those
12:59uh who are not digital savvy is the reason and the purpose of the sanchar sati app okay great thanks
13:07for joining us on that aishwarya i think it gives everyone a really good perspective of really you
13:12know what's happening with the sanchar sati app and its uh purpose as well as limitations but let's go
13:18back to the currency and what's happening on the rupee we've talked about how it's been in free fall as
13:23well as the cea's commentary on the currency uh let me also welcome in uh we've got a guest joining us
13:30on the rupee just to talk us through the outlook as well and uh mr mathur just to get a perspective
13:37from you we've crossed 90 which was anticipated um but how much further do you anticipate we could
13:44see pressure building on the currency and is it likely that perhaps any commentary from the rbi coming
13:49in on friday will help to stem the fall or do you see this as being a trend that will accelerate over
13:56the next few weeks thank you very much a pleasure joining in and thank you very much for inviting us
14:03to share our views uh i won't say it's a free fall but yes over the last uh few months we did solve
14:11uh repeat depreciating from levels of around 83 82 a year back to around 88 87 levels against the u.s dollar
14:20uh it got stabilized at around 88 89 against the u.s dollar uh but over the last two days it has
14:31plunged or depreciated against the dollar so we did saw a plunge of around one percent last week
14:39and we also witnessed all time low for the rupee against the dollar today
14:45so rupee did touched briefly around uh 90.29 against the dollar currently at around 90 10 19 11
14:56now the fundamental reasons for india are very strong you have the very good gdp numbers coming
15:03in from the last six months the first and the second quarter uh i think the pressure is largely with
15:10respect to the uncertainty which is still mounting on uh on the tariff with the u.s uh the tariff uh
15:17policy with the u.s the strong dollar and there is a safe haven buying the dollar too so people are
15:24therefore the dollar is appreciating it is around 99.15 where it is stabilizing currently uh fears of the
15:33wider trade deficit uh because of uh the the the the depreciative rupee against the dollar so imports
15:40would be much more costlier and you don't have too many exports coming in with the global economy
15:46still being coming out of the tariff shock so i think all these fundamental factors which are positive
15:52for india per se uh would play in short term but not on the immediate term uh because of uh the pressure
16:02which is bound to come with respect to the trade deficit and at the same time the dollar strength
16:09and tariff definitely is one of the concerning issues so do we expect the rbi to intervene uh to
16:17support the currency uh mr mathur is that something that the street's watching out for because they
16:21don't uh at least the cea right now is sounding fairly unperturbed will the rbi step in at this
16:26point or do you think they'll wait and watch further see the rbi monetary policy is supposed
16:32to happen i mean the fifth of december would be the outcome coming in from the monetary monetary policy
16:38although the large probability or the assumption around the markets going in that the rbi would cut
16:45rate now i am not sure whether that would happen in this particular policy meeting because if the rbi cut
16:52rates then the rupee might further depreciate against the dollar which would again be up in japan
17:00staking job for the rbi to manage uh at the same time i would say that the rbi is getting into kind
17:08of what international monetary fund has just come out with uh a kind of a note saying that it is guiding
17:15and not guided by uh or guarding against the rupee against the dollar so i think uh i think uh the rbi would
17:25take a very cautious call because the fundamentals for the country are better the inflation is very
17:31much stuck then you don't have uh the gdp questions uh mounting on uh the manufacturing sector the services
17:39sector is doing well except for the exports which might be critical going forward uh with respect to
17:46the services sector so i think uh it's it's a very tough call for rbi but i'm sure 90 is something
17:53where i rbi uh would be watching uh the rupee against the dollar and i don't think uh my personal view is
18:03that uh that the rupee might not depreciate further beyond 91 as we stand today tomorrow the situation can be
18:12a different situation all right so at least some support insight uh mr mathur you know we've seen
18:18silver and gold also uh hit those all-time high levels considering the currencies continuing to
18:24to weaken and global supplies tightening high demand of course also bringing in gray market premium
18:29so when we're looking at this safe haven demand expectations of fed rate cuts all of this leading
18:34to that run up also in precious metals do you expect that to continue given what you said just said
18:39on how most of these factors uh will remain aligned over the next few weeks or in the more immediate
18:45term well thank you very much for this question means people are wondering about yeah um where the
18:52silver and the gold prices are headed means nobody thought about that the gold prices would touch one
18:57like 25 000 we are standing today with the gold at around 127 per 10 grams and uh the silver is
19:05coating at around 182 000 on the mcx futures contract for march 10 grams uh the spot market is uh for silver
19:15is at around 178 000 per kg so i think uh i think uh the major fundamental reason for silver and let me
19:25correct uh about one thing here the gold didn't touch new high today uh it is silver which has touched a new
19:32high at around 58 90 in comics or international markets and in rupee terms the gold did touched an
19:40all-time high in dollar at around 4 381 and that was in october 17th uh and indian markets also did
19:50touched an high of around 1 lakh 32 900 something uh on the 28th of october this year so silver is all-time
19:59high commodity today the fundamental reason is simple and plain that the deficit on silver
20:07means we have the five year long deficit in terms of the production and the consumption balance so we
20:14have a great deficit which is definitely impacting uh the silver demand you have the central banks you
20:23have the etfs across the globe uh looking into diversifying their portfolio uh from dollar uh the
20:31assets to assets like gold and silver so that particular one is rock solid and investor demand in terms of
20:40the etfs is also being catching up uh in the last six seven months so i would say that the silver because of
20:48the fundamental reasons would continue to be on the neutral to a bullish trend uh but gold uh means
20:57as a safe haven i would say would behave within a range so currently at around 4 206 uh in dollar
21:06so i would say the gold would be more or less neutral but uh silver would be definitely neutral to polish
21:13all right mr master thanks so much for joining us and taking us through a detailed look at both the
21:19currency's trajectory as well as what's happening on the precious metals and we'll continue to track
21:24that for you of course over the next few days especially as we keep an eye on the commentary
21:28coming in both from the rbi as well as the fed we're counting down to close now we're just two
21:33minutes to go so let's also take you through some of the major gainers and losers today where we're
21:37going to end up uh yes it looks like we're going to end up back at about 26 000 on the index but let's
21:42pull up uh the gainers and losers it of course having a field day given the fact that uh the
21:47rupee is weakening it's great for it it's great for exporters hindalko icic bank some of the other
21:52gainers there today let's pull up some more of those for you and also take a look at the advanced
21:56decline ratio tcs up over a percent htfc bank access bank so private banks clearly participating
22:03on the downside let's also take a look at fata consumer adani bel two percent cuts coming in on
22:08some of these names lot of profit booking coming in sriram finance m&m ntpc so again two percent
22:13cuts across the board here psu banks i want to pull those up for you and take a look at all of them
22:18because on the back of the news we did see some sharp selling coming in across the board on psu banks
22:24hitting in fact three percent lower on close on the psu bank index um we also had um a whole host of
22:32them let's pull up sbi for you see where it closed today uh bank of baroda and some of the others as
22:37well just to see how the action was on closing canada bank for instance punjab national bank ubi
22:44all of them seeing major cuts in today's trade oh so let me get a quick call from you specifically
22:49on the psu banking names canada in fact closing the day down four percent and also just in light of
22:54the recent run-up that we've seen on some of these names uh majority of the psu banks were already
23:00in a very strong and stellar bull run but with today's kind of a development there might be some
23:04kind of fault to the momentum and they might see some kind of profit booking because technically
23:09the parameters have already been into the over overbought terrain so i expect that in the short-term
23:14period there might be some time-wise correction or consolidation that uh psu banks can be into canara
23:21bank for instance is at a very strong support of 20-day exponential moving average around the zone of
23:26145 and a breakdown below 145 can drag the counter towards 138 to 136 and technically that should be
23:34considered healthy because with the kind of vertical rally that we have seen in psu banks some kind of
23:40profit booking should be expected and that should be considered healthy from short and even for medium
23:44term perspective so overall the technical structure remains robust and one should look for opportunities on
23:50the dips all right so look at opportunities on dips uh shell coming to you we've just closed and i think
23:59we're at about um just just a touch under 26 000 25 985 i think is where we're landing at the nifty uh on on
24:09the nifty itself it having a field day indalko was back in action private banks as you mentioned earlier
24:14uh but clearly the overall uh sentiment of the market was negative we're still ending with a sharp
24:20skew towards the declines despite the kind of recovery buying we saw in the second half of trade
24:26i think uh abha we've had enough of a weak rupee you'll see a reversal in the rupee from tomorrow
24:33if not uh today till 5 pm and uh the nifties uh recovered 88 points from an intraday low which was 26
24:42uh thousand that's a very very big uh plus uh this is something uh that uh uh should be looked
24:50forward to tomorrow i hope that the rally will now uh take root and tomorrow you'll see a strong strong
24:56close above 26 000 abha all right so some amount of support coming in both on the nifty and anticipated
25:04on the currency so it's not all uh all bad news we have time for a couple of queries very quickly
25:09sumit from katak says which it stocks will benefit if the india u.s trade deal is signed
25:14you know shell i'm i'm almost scared to ask you this question because we've been waiting on this trade
25:19deal signing and it has to happen at some point uh but it's it's like this this thing that is
25:25constantly evading us uh right now uh but for sumit what would you say which it stocks look the most
25:30attractive right now uh well abha i think the itbs make sense because of valuations and not
25:39because of the trade deal uh i don't think so uh with the uh you know the red carpet being laid for
25:47president putin you'll see the trade deal happening fairly quickly so keep that aside but the itbs that
25:55we very often talk about uh are the way forward if you want to have an exposure to the it sector which
26:02i think uh is a very sensible way out yet again please do consider uh speaking to an independent
26:08financial advisor before you step into it staggered buying and for a two three year period abha all
26:16right ramesh of nasik has written in which export oriented stocks will benefit most from the rupee fall
26:21so let me bring that to you uh where do you feel there's value to be found on the back of the weakening
26:26currency uh see overall because of the inr depreciation i expect that it counters can see
26:32some kind of traction some some of the pharma names can see some kind of positive traction overall
26:38there might be some kind of traction in the short term perspective but overall the market remains
26:43robust for majority of the sector so for sector specific i am more bullish on to banking and
26:49financial for our market and majority of the banks and financial sectors is looking very positive so
26:54irrespective of having some counters from other other sectors which are having some kind of
27:01traction in the recent period i will stay with private sector brands where icici hdfc and kotec
27:07bank is looking very positive right well the market action clearly have shifted towards the private
27:12banks today uh we also saw some buzz on on some stocks like in apollo tires did well and some of those
27:17auto ancillary or tire stocks have actually been buzzing lately it of course the other major mover and
27:23hindalco maintaining its uh sustained buying as well thank you osho thank you shell for joining us
27:29we also are going to be heading in for a quick break but before we do here's a look at tesla's
27:34optimus humanoid robot sprinting across the lab floor and what elod musk says is its strongest
27:40performance yet the video shared by musk on x showcases major improvements in balance coordination
27:48and gate key areas that the company has been fine-tuning with each new iteration
28:06you
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