00:00Leslie, you know, the first thing I thought about when I heard about this blockade after
00:04I wrapped my head around the fact that we are closing the Strait of Hormuz is
00:09what happens if a Chinese ship comes through there? Do we fire on it?
00:14All of this is very unclear. I think that everybody was surprised when J.D. Vance came out and
00:22made it clear that the focus of the negotiations have been singularly on removing that nuclear
00:28program. And then the announcement of this closure. The first concern, I think, for many of us,
00:35certainly for me, was does this put the United States in direct confrontation with China,
00:41with India, with others that have managed to get some ships through? I mean, what we're hearing is
00:46that it's just along the coastline. Anybody who approaches a port, not neutral ships passing
00:51through. But this is, you know, as others have said, uncharted territory. It certainly has the
00:59risk of being escalatory. And it reads like a policy by a U.S. administration that it has lost control
01:08and is sort of grabbing at straws for some way to force Iran to allow, you know, movement through
01:16that strait, which is crucial, as we know. The problem, of course, also is not only this possible
01:22confrontation with China and others. It's that nobody, you know, that President Trump and others
01:28have simply not worked with U.S. allies. And that is now, you know, unfolding the consequences of that.
01:36They're not coming along. Britain, France, others have said that they won't support the blockade.
01:40And so this is very unchartered territory. And both sides are sort of digging in at the moment,
01:47so it seems. Leslie, one of the arguments I've heard for why this blockade might work
01:52is exactly China. This idea that this puts direct pressure on the Chinese. It's designed to inflict
01:58pain onto them. And so they, in turn, might be more likely to press Iran to get to a deal
02:04with
02:04the United States. Could that be an outcome of this blockade?
02:07I mean, it's a really great hypothesis. And I think most of us hope that it holds true. China
02:15certainly appears to have used some of its leverage in getting Iran to agree to the truce,
02:22that the two-week ceasefire. But whether it will use that same leverage in this case,
02:28it's hard to predict. I guess one big question is, what is being offered to Iran? Is it simply,
02:36we won't keep bombing you and keep attacking you? Or is there a very clear offer on lifting of
02:42sanctions? Normally, a successful negotiation requires not just the threat to inflict more pain,
02:50but the promise of offering something that makes the situation better for your target. And that,
02:57again, we have very few details. But I'm sure that the Chinese are weighing that up.
03:02Is there no level at which we can inflict so much pain that we just bend them to our will?
03:09I mean,
03:09that seems to be what President Trump and his advisers, or at least his cabinet,
03:18are counting on, that we can simply kill enough of them and destroy enough of Iranian civilization
03:25that they eventually say, OK, we'll do what you want.
03:28I mean, it's quite a statement. I mean, I think one thing is that the Iranian regime,
03:35first of all, as we know, is still intact. And secondly, has for many years been able to deflect
03:42the pain of the sanctions onto the people. That's a common problem with sanctions.
03:48Leaders, you know, it's not great for the overall economy. The people of Iran have suffered
03:52tremendously. But those in charge still managed to, you know, live their version of a good life.
04:00So whether and how far is the U.S. willing to go? Because as we've also seen, it's not only
04:05pain
04:06that's being inflicted on Iran, it's pain that's being inflicted on global markets.
04:11We are weeks away from that pain being felt even worse. You know, I'm sitting here in Chicago today.
04:18We know the story of the food security, the price to fertilizer that is hitting America's
04:25farming community. Those are grave, grave costs. And they will have political consequences
04:33for Donald Trump. So the cost is not simply one side as this goes on.
04:39If Donald Trump, the president, starts to try to react more to those pressures as we get into the
04:45midterms and he feels the political pressure, Leslie, what could you even do at this point?
04:50What does pulling back from this conflict look like at a time that we've left Iran empowered with
04:56their ability to control the Strait of Hormuz?
05:00Yeah, I mean, I think there are some good proposals out there. We need to get to the point
05:05where those could even be conceivably the next step. But some sort of regional security
05:11partnership and governance for the Strait that doesn't depend on Iran, but I think Iran would
05:17certainly need to be part of it. But that included other powers, Gulf states, Turkey and others.
05:24That, I think, is a conceivable proposal for going forward. It seems to be probably the only one
05:30where you really divide up oversight of that critical choke point in the global economy. But,
05:37you know, in order to get to a situation where that's even possible, this stage of the war really
05:45has to come to a close. So keeping that ceasefire in place, some sort of way of moving beyond a
05:54blockade, Iran is going to have to give on the Strait. But the U.S. is also going to have
06:00to offer
06:00something probably quietly behind the scenes to Iran should it agree to opening up passage through
06:08the Strait. And as you've mentioned very importantly, what role will China play in this? I'm sure it'll
06:15be a quiet role. But at this point, everybody's interest is in seeing that Strait open and clearly
06:22in seeing the war remain not only a ceasefire, but getting a longer, more lasting, durable commitment.
06:31These are difficult things to achieve right now.
06:34I mean, can the GCC, which, you know, Saudi and the other Gulf countries have been very supportive
06:40of the United States and in a way of Israel as well, if they turn around and say, you know
06:46what,
06:46we're going to work with the Chinese now to stop the Americans and the Israelis and end this? Is
06:52that a viable possibility? You know, I think that one has to think beyond existing blocks and forge
06:59a coalition. You know, there's a degree of transactionalism in pretty much everything
07:04about geopolitics right now. Forge the coalition that works. If the GCC can be an important player,
07:11they're fine, if not fine. But this is critical, very high stakes. And the U.S. is going to have
07:20to be part of this too, right? All parties are going to need to come together. The problem right
07:25now is that there's not really any grown up in the room. The U.S. used to play this role
07:30and not
07:31always and always imperfectly, but it sometimes did play this role. The question is, who will do that now?
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