00:00About two minutes away from the end of the trading day. Katie Greifel and David Gura and here to help
00:05take us through the closing bell. We have a global simulcast joined now by Isabel Lee. She's in for Carol
00:11Masser and Tim Stanovic. We welcome in all of our different audiences across all the various platforms right now. And
00:19Tim I mean you take a look at the S&P 500. We're not going to finish quite at session
00:23lows but pretty dang close. And boy it was ugly out there today. Yeah just across assets really ugly. I
00:29mean I
00:29don't even know which superlatives to use. The Nasdaq 100 closing or ideas it will close in correction territory. The
00:37S&P 500 right now trading at its lowest level going back to August 21st of 2025. So giving up
00:45all of the gains over the last few months going back to the summer Isabel. What's interesting to me beyond
00:51these market moves are the notes that we're getting. We have Goldman Sachs trading desk saying that investors should not
00:56turn bearish on U.S. stocks. They're saying that current
00:59positioning leaves the market vulnerable to a short squeeze if you know geopolitical tensions ease. So that's really an interesting
01:05take from Goldman. You know having a fascinating conversation here on the TV side just a few minutes ago with
01:10Amos Hochstein talking about how the market is pricing in risk but not disruption. He telling us that we are
01:15actually in the middle of disruption and that those who've lived through this before are no longer trading no longer
01:20active on Wall Street. But he very much making the point that this is a unique moment a novel one
01:25and one that's likely to have broader market implications Katie going forward.
01:27Yeah definitely a big note of warning there. You think we've seen volatility in oil so far. If we do
01:33tip into pricing and disruption as Amos told us we might be headed for then certainly it'll be interesting to
01:40see the different cross asset implications there.
01:44But we do hear the bells ringing on this Friday the end of a trading week and an ugly one
01:48at that. The S&P 500 down about 1.7 percent. That is going to cap off a fifth straight
01:55week of losses.
01:56That is the longest weekly losing streak since 2022. The Nasdaq down about 2.2 percent. You know I am
02:03loathe to mention the Dow but also finishing about 1.7 percent lower. That is going to help it enter
02:10into correction territory. The Nasdaq 100 there as well. And the small caps not escaping the selling either down about
02:171.8 percent.
02:18A relatively broad base decline. If you look at the S&P 500 almost David four stocks lower for every
02:26one stock that is higher. 110 stocks did advance in the S&P today.
02:30391 stocks moved lower though. I look at the IMAX function on the Bloomberg terminals see what's in green what's
02:35in red energy obviously the one that's shining greenest.
02:38The most verdant there on my screen energy up 1.87 percent as we've been talking about on both radio
02:44and television over the course of the day in these last few weeks. Oil prices really animating all of this
02:49and that concern about how high they can go and of course what that duration variable is going to be.
02:53All right. Well there's a little bit of green in the S&P 500. I went to that part of
02:57the IMAP function and found some gainers today. The biggest gainer on a percentage basis in the S&P 500
03:02is Entergy today up more than 6.8 percent.
03:06This is a result of a deal with Meta platforms. It's paying for the construction of seven new natural gas
03:11fired plants to fuel its data center in rural Louisiana.
03:14Meta reaching a new agreement with Energy to build and pay for enough gas plants to provide a total of
03:195.2 gigawatts of electricity for the data center.
03:22The agreement includes a Meta commitment to fund up to two and a half gigawatts of new renewable resources as
03:28well as a memorandum of understanding to explore future development and use of nuclear power.
03:33Entergy up by 6.8 percent the best performer on a percentage basis in the S&P 500.
03:39Among the best performers in there as well. I think it was actually the second best performer. That's right.
03:43Brown Foreman up again on news of a potential acquisition by Bernard Rochow.
03:49So look at that. Brown Foreman controlled by the Brown family up 5.6 percent today. It was up yesterday
03:55as a result of this as well.
03:57The big question is, is the family going to approve because they do have voting power of shares.
04:03And finally, Peloton, a blast from the past.
04:07Yes, indeed.
04:08Out there.
04:08Speaking of 2022.
04:09I was on my Peloton this morning.
04:11What are you talking about?
04:12I was.
04:13Katie has an impressive Peloton streak.
04:14Yeah, it's quite the setup.
04:16All right.
04:16Well, I don't know how to segue that into what the stock did today, but it's up 8.9 percent.
04:22This is actually the result of Eric Jackson out there on social media.
04:25It surged as much as 17 percent before giving back some of those gains, surging the most intraday going back
04:31to July.
04:32Eric Jackson, the activist investor, said he has longed the stock.
04:35Here's what he said, quote, I'm long Peloton at $4, he said in a post on X.
04:39Peloton shares at that point were down about 24 percent year to date.
04:43Up right now, though, we're up today to $4.43 a share.
04:47Wow.
04:48So for decliners, I was very spoiled.
04:49I had a lot to choose from.
04:51We can start with Amazon.
04:52It's down by 4 percent.
04:54No specific news, but we do have the European Commission saying it was hit by a cyber attack that may
04:58have resulted in the theft of internal data.
05:00And the attack struck the commission's Amazon Web Services, or AWS, account.
05:05So before being detected.
05:06So maybe that had something to do in part with the stock's decline.
05:09Up next is Coinbase.
05:10I wanted to talk about this because I wrote about this story yesterday about how Coinbase is teaming up with
05:16Better to really offer crypto mortgage.
05:19Tim will be interested in this, too.
05:21Crypto mortgage to Americans.
05:23And now we have TD Cowan saying that the product is mixed.
05:26So that's not really that great.
05:28The advantage for the borrower is that they can obtain credit against Bitcoin holdings, TD Cowan said.
05:34But, you know, it's still questionable how they will move forward with that.
05:38So we have Coinbase down by more than 7 percent.
05:40And lastly, we have cybersecurity stocks down.
05:44But I want to zero in on the ticker PANW.
05:47That's Palo Alto.
05:48Shares are in the red by 6 percent.
05:51It's joined by its peers CrowdStrike and Sailor dropped by almost double digits.
05:57So it's really because of a Fortune report about an artificial intelligence model being tested may be used by hackers.
06:05All right.
06:05Let's take a quick look at the bond market there because also spoiled for choice.
06:10Though you did see an interesting steepening, which we were talking about with Jim Caron.
06:14You can see the two-year yields actually fell eight basis points, a little bit of a rally in the
06:20short end of the curve,
06:21which was certainly interesting when you think about where we were after that ugly auction earlier in the week.
06:26Can't say the same for the rest of the curve, though.
06:29You saw a little bit of selling pressure deeper as you get further out the curve.
06:3330-year yields higher by about four basis points.
06:36It's 10-year yields.
06:38We are back above 440.
06:40Tim, are you scared?
06:41You know, I wouldn't say I'm scared.
06:44Okay.
06:44But what I will say is I wonder what the president's next move is.
06:49Because yesterday after the sell-off, what we saw was a message from the president calling for an extension
06:55and by many accounts perhaps a third sort of extension.
06:59And the idea was that maybe this would give more time for negotiations.
07:04And markets bought it a little bit.
07:06But then this morning, with a seemingly increase in hostilities overnight and more strikes and strikes on infrastructure as well,
07:14markets are not buying the idea that there is a sort of an off-ramp anytime soon.
07:19I mean, look no further than oil prices.
07:21You have Brent right now up above $113 a barrel, WTI hitting $100 a barrel.
07:27That's up close to 6% right now.
07:29And Brent up is about what?
07:31Almost 5% today.
07:32It's really been a while in the oil market.
07:35But I'm wondering if we're a victim of our own quant system, algo system, or just our own fear.
07:41Citi released a note this week saying that selling off on Friday and buying back on Monday has been a
07:46recurring pattern over the past few weeks.
07:48Because investors are just really wary of carrying risk over the weekend.
07:50Because maybe they want to have a nice brunch session or hang out with their kids.
07:54But they buy the dip.
07:56Thank you so much, Katie.
07:57So I feel like that's really maybe something we're seeing.
08:00The Citi also said conviction has been low because, of course, it's a headline-driven market.
08:04And it's really been tough to figure out this narrative.
08:07Picking up on that, I wonder how inured we're getting to this, the way that all of this has unfolded.
08:11And, Tim, I think your point is a very good one.
08:12What does the president say we're due next?
08:14We have this very specific 10-day extension ending at 8 p.m. East Coast time, which I think is
08:183.30 a.m. Tehran time on April the 6th.
08:22I just wonder sort of what power he has in this moment.
08:25I think that's what's been laid bare today is we've seen Israel make those strikes on infrastructure in Iran today.
08:30I think the president feels like he's still calling the shots and running the show and determining how long this
08:34is going to last.
08:35But I will say from what I've watched over the last few weeks, he seems to have limited power in
08:39that regard there, especially as this war widens, Katie.
08:42And I'm sure you're going to be discussing something along these lines at 7 a.m. tomorrow and on Sunday.
08:47But it is interesting.
08:48I mean, you think about the potential endgames for Israel.
08:51You think about the potential endgame for the U.S.
08:53How much of a gulf is there between them?
08:56That certainly is a big question as this Iran war continues to deepen in terms of the time frame.
09:02It's going to be interesting to see how all of this plays out in the market.
09:05I keep going back to this note from J.P. Morgan basically saying that should oil trade at $110 per
09:12barrel for the rest of the year,
09:13that earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies would be shed by as much as about 5 percent.
09:20And that really is one of the last sort of rallying cries of the bulls out there, that corporate America
09:25still looks pretty good right now, Tim.
09:27So that could be the view on what happens to earnings.
09:29But there's also a big political element to this.
09:32We had a great conversation with Joel Lovinger out of our Texas Bureau earlier.
09:36He, along with Jeff Mason, out of D.C., went to CPAC over the weekend.
09:40And what they heard from people was a real difference in sort of their support for the president because of
09:47this war.
09:47But it reminds us that affordability is what this president ran on.
09:50And if oil stays high in affordability, things don't become more affordable for Americans.
09:55I think Republicans really could pay the price at the polls come November.
09:59But before that is Bloomberg this weekend.
10:027 a.m. tomorrow.
10:03David Gurra will be there along with Christina Rafini.
10:08And hopefully you.
10:09I mean, watching.
10:10Yeah.
10:11Comfort of the Peloton setup, whatever.
10:12I will definitely be watching.
10:14Hop on your Peloton.
10:15Put on Bloomberg this weekend.
10:16It sounds like a great Saturday.
10:18It does.
10:19It is going to be a great Saturday.
10:20It does.
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