00:00I think we should look at this through the lens of right now, two things, leverage and time, right?
00:04You just covered time. And, you know, does the president have time? How long can it last?
00:08Iranians have to look at it the same way. And the leverage in play is from the U.S. side
00:13after the ceasefire has been this blockade.
00:16On the Iranian side, it's to show they continue to control the straits. And you're seeing those both play out.
00:21And so what's the impact is, you know, clearly we've seen the numbers of ships, right?
00:25Thirty-four ships have turned around. And remember, the U.S. blockade isn't on the Straits of Hormuz.
00:30It's to keep anything from flowing into Iran or out.
00:34And the idea is they've been getting a pass during the rest of the conflict and letting their oil come
00:39out and getting money from that and just their economy.
00:42And when you look at it, 90 percent of their revenue that Iran gets comes from seaborne trade.
00:47So the blockade has an impact, but it's not instant. Each day that builds more and more.
00:53And there's different estimates. But you're talking about four hundred million dollars ish a day in impact to the Iranian
00:59economy.
01:00So this is why time is important for anything, but especially for a blockade, because that builds over time.
01:08And when you compound that with that, the Iranians had 50 percent inflation before the conflict started, that their steel
01:16industry was decimated, that their Internet's been turned off and the complications they just have with their people.
01:24But as we've seen before, the Iranian leadership's concern isn't necessarily with the people.
01:30We saw that in the protests. They're they're willing to hang on.
01:33So so in reality, who you know, how does this time thing play out?
01:38Does do do they continue to let the blockade?
01:42You know, do the Iranians want to continue to endure this blockade?
01:46Are they going to come to the table with something that President Trump can agree with?
01:51Well, I want to follow up on that because you were talking about how much it's costing Iran, but it's
01:55not free for the U.S. either.
01:56And as as Hags said, we're going to expand it. There's another carrier headed there.
02:00And if we look at a prolonged, protracted conflict, the U.S. does not have a good history in wars
02:05of attrition or wars of insurgency or against entrenched populations who have nothing left to lose.
02:10So if it comes down to a waiting game, who wins that out?
02:13Yeah. So you're really talking about what's the patience on the U.S. side. Right.
02:17So what what what's clear, though, is the U.S. is posturing, though, as if they're not going to quit
02:24soon.
02:24Right. You saw that they just moved another aircraft carrier strike group to the region.
02:28That's just to say that if we go back to strikes, you know, which is one of our options, we
02:33have the forces necessary to do that.
02:35And they certainly have the forces in place to do this blockade.
02:38I think that commitment and forces is made now.
02:41I don't think you're going to see a backing out of the blockade.
02:44It would take all the pressure off.
02:45And then also add it. Remember that the Iranians have one hundred billion dollars of their assets frozen along with
02:52sanctions.
02:53So, you know, we'll have to see if this blockade does have an effect.
02:57It will over time, clearly.
02:59But, you know, are the Iranian leadership just going to suffer through this thinking that they'll ask outlast the United
03:05States will.
03:06Talk to us about the psychology of navigating the strait in the middle of this conflict or as it ends.
03:11And the U.S. is determined to get passage opened up once again in a safe way.
03:16But there is this fear of there being drones or these smaller, I'm sorry, mines or these smaller boats.
03:21What's it going to take to assuage those who are worried about navigating a vessel through the strait?
03:25How do you know to to a degree of certainty that you can get a ship through the strait without
03:31without hitting a mine or some other difficulty?
03:33Well, right now we see that the straits, Iran can let let ships pass through a narrow through, but they're
03:39going not through the main channel.
03:41So there's normally like a highway there where.
03:43Yeah, I didn't know this until this conflict, but they usually go this way and now they're going this way.
03:48Right. Normally you go straight through the middle and you stay to the right.
03:51And when you come out, you stay to the right.
03:52So it's like a highway, but it's it's very clear on navigational charts.
03:56And and that allows a lot of throughput.
03:58What Iran said is we've mined that area in the middle.
04:01You have to now come closer to our islands so they can run their small boats out.
04:05So so what's going to assuage the shipping companies, even when this ends, is is the strait clear of mines,
04:11which you've heard the U.S. is even to this day working on identifying and clearing mines there.
04:17And and then our insurance rates going to get low enough.
04:19And that's going to mean that, you know, they're not going to be worried about Iran attacking them because we
04:23do have a lot of ships that are still stuck in inside the Gulf that that that are not coming
04:29out until they know that their crews are going to be safe and that their ships are going to be
04:33safe.
04:33This is why the president has been asking other countries to make sure, you know, try to enlist their support
04:39in the end in ensuring and helping with any mine clearance that that that's needs that's needed to assuage those
04:46mariners that it is safe to travel.
04:48I really think, though, the key is an agreement where the Iranians said, you know, we're not going to do
04:53anything to ships.
04:54And then the mine clearance becomes something that can be done administratively, not under the pressure of, you know, further
05:01attacks.
05:02And they can clear those a small straight relatively quickly, you know, a small passage area through the middle and
05:08then widen that over time.
05:09And even if they manage to do that, and if the straight becomes nominally open, if you are asked to
05:15consult for Maersk or one of these other big shipping companies or a captain called you and said, do you
05:20think it's safe for me to take my crew through this straight?
05:23Would you say yes or no?
05:24Well, right now, clearly they're voting no, right?
05:28And afterwards, I think it's all going to depend on what they hear from the negotiating table.
05:33You know, my sense is if if there is a negotiated settlement, they're going to say yes.
05:39And they're going to they're going to watch and see that.
05:41Yes, there's no mines there.
05:43And the U.S. gives assurances and the international community gives assurance there's there's no mines.
05:48And then I think you're going to see them resume.
05:50But that doesn't instantly get all that cargo to all the ports that they were going to.
05:54There's a there's a time lag in all that.
05:56And there's other experts that can talk about that.
05:58But but at least, like you said, I do think that one of the things that is somewhat surprising is
06:05the price of oil isn't as high as everyone would thought it would have been with the ones just talking.
06:12Yeah. So so so so that is, in essence, giving, you know, at least the president, the global community a
06:18little bit more time than they maybe would have had,
06:21had the not been this much resilience in that in that energy market.
06:26We've got about a minute left, but I want to ask about the legacy of this.
06:29And our colleague Michelle Hussain was sitting down with Ambassador Wendy Sherman, the former undersecretary of state, talking about the
06:34fact that now that this has happened, Iran has pulled this off.
06:36There's going to be a legacy to that.
06:38There's going to be a global fear that this could happen once again.
06:41And how do you think about that, the case that Iran has proved in doing this and what it means
06:46going forward, even after this conflict gets resolved?
06:49I think we saw this the beginning of this when the Houthis closed the Red Sea.
06:53Right. You had a non-nation state saying, you know, attacking ships in an international waterway.
06:58Right. And we saw that that that was detrimental.
07:01But we were able to go around Africa and the supply chain was able to adjust.
07:06You don't have that option here.
07:08And there's other passages in the world where you don't have that option where going around is not so easy.
07:13What we don't want when this is over is a change to the order that says one nation who lives
07:20on one side of an international waterway can charge a toll or obstruct the free flow of commerce.
07:25So I think it's what happens here has ramifications globally, not just in the region.
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