00:00A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has eased immediate fears of a wider conflict
00:07and raised hopes that pressure on fuel and energy prices here in Britain could begin to ease.
00:12But with the peace still uncertain, there's also wider questions about Donald Trump's conduct on the world stage
00:17and what this moment could mean for Britain's relationship with the USA.
00:22So Trump, too, was always going to be sort of not so much a repeat of the first term, but
00:28the same but worse.
00:30And so it has proven to be in the sort of time since he became president in January 2025.
00:35Having said that, he's had foreign adventures.
00:39We think about Venezuela in particular, which was pretty bloodless, largely,
00:44apart from those that were sort of killed trying to defend the president and a success.
00:48Yes, he had attacked Iran last year and claimed at that point that he sort of terminated, if you wish,
00:55the sort of the nuclear capability. But clearly that was not true.
00:59And that's part of the difficulty that Trump has developed a situation where we're more likely to believe
01:05what's coming out of Iran than what he is saying.
01:09And of course, we've had the situation at the weekend where he came out with this dreadful sort of tweet,
01:15which, of course, was highly full of expletives, but also sort of threatening sort of blood
01:21and whatever else on the Iranian people.
01:24Indeed, he's reinforced that sort of more recently that he's going to sort of destroy civilization.
01:28It all remains to be seen at this sort of the time I'm talking to you.
01:32There's a lot of uncertainty whether he'll sort of follow up on his plan.
01:35He is also known as Taco. Trump always chickens out.
01:39And there is a degree that he is going to sort of to do so because the money markets are
01:43moving against him.
01:44And also more particularly, this is as a president who came to power by promising to make things better for
01:50the American public.
01:51Well, that's probably not going to happen because they're going to be paying a lot more for their gasoline,
01:55as they call it, to drive their cars, which tend to be sort of petrol guzzlers compared to what we
02:01have.
02:01So all that put into a nutshell, Trump is highly unpredictable.
02:06At least in the first term, he was surrounded by people who might sort of have given him sort of
02:10counsel
02:10and stopped him from doing some of the more extreme things.
02:13That's certainly not happening second time around.
02:15Indeed, he's surrounded himself by sort of the nodding dogs.
02:18They said the yes men and women who do exactly what they want.
02:21And if they don't, they are sort of they have got rid of.
02:24And we've seen that more recently.
02:25For people in Britain, the significance of this story is not only diplomatic, but practical.
02:31The ceasefire has helped calm markets, with oil prices falling sharply after fears that a wider conflict could choke supplies
02:39through the Straits of Hormuz,
02:40one of the world's most important energy routes.
02:43That matters because when oil prices rise quickly, the effect can spread beyond the forecourt into transport costs, deliveries, food
02:51prices and wider household budgets.
02:54So this pause in fighting has brought some relief, at least for now.
02:57But the picture is still uncertain.
02:59Britain, Reuters news agency reports that shipping disruption in the Gulf has not fully cleared.
03:05And the agreement itself remains fragile, with mistrust and military tension still high.
03:10For Britain, that means cautious hope rather than certainty.
03:14The sense that the world may have stepped back from the brink, but not yet reached anything like lasting stability.
03:19And what we're already starting to experience is the sort of higher fuel prices.
03:24We're going to see that sort of flow through in terms of sort of higher energy prices when the cap
03:29or the energy price cap is reconsidered in July.
03:33So we'll sort of see the impact of that.
03:35There will also be sort of higher interest rates, we believe, because, of course, the sort of the general sort
03:40of cycle of inflationary flows will feed to the system.
03:43So we're all going to be a lot poorer off.
03:45Now, of course, it's not to say that there might be a sudden cessation of sort of the hostilities, but
03:50the damage that's been done to sort of the infrastructure in the sort of the Middle East and more particularly
03:55the sort of the relationships have been, they're going to be longer lasting.
03:59And we're going to see that sort of around for a long time in terms of the special relationship that
04:04clearly has been sort of damaged.
04:07Trump has for reasons which, of course, we can only guess that little respect for sort of Keir Starmer, who
04:13we prefer.
04:13We do not know, but I suppose we can guess that also.
04:17But, you know, can we rely on America in the way that we once did?
04:21Let's face it. Of course, the Americans helped us during the Second World War.
04:24I don't think that would happen now unless he is removed from the presidency.
04:28And that's not beyond the realms of possibility, but highly unlikely in the sort of the certainly the very short
04:33term.
04:33Then we're going to have to sort of put up with this and see where his next adventure takes him
04:37to.
04:38But Iran is going to be proven to be a pretty costly sort of adventure on Trump's behalf.
04:43And I don't think it's going to do anything that he said it would do in terms of sort of
04:47making Iran a less dangerous sort of state quite the contrary.
04:52While this fragile ceasefire may offer some reassurance for British families worried about fuel prices,
04:58and the wider cost of living, it's still only a pause, not a full settlement.
05:03And politically, it leaves a bigger question hanging in the air.
05:06Whether Donald Trump's brand of high-risk, high-profile intervention makes the world safer, or simply more volatile.
05:13Because of the world and his drauf CAMPUS havetime to show up for instance?
05:13How do we collectively give kişiliраз for right all the way the consumers of the supermarket would come robi?
05:14Think about that one.
05:14Now, look at the world's cleared this.
05:14And I don't know everybody knows what everyone else would buy back to the world.
05:14It's okay, so I don't know what I want to do in the future and I don't understand everybody.
Comments