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00:00We're piecing together what we know of what's in this framework plan from a variety of media sources, Axios among
00:06them.
00:06I'm just going to quote here from what Axios has reported about what could be in this deal.
00:10That is a strait reform that's being reopened without tolls, the U.S. lifting that Iranian blockade,
00:16an end to all fighting, including fighting in Lebanon, Iran being able to sell oil,
00:20and there being discussions about Iran's nuclear program happening not now, but in a few weeks, a few months' time.
00:27Andrew, I'm going to have you channel your colleague, Barak Ravid, here in a few minutes.
00:30But before we get there, Jamana, let me go to you first.
00:32And there was this wonderful line in David Sanger's piece in The New York Times this morning.
00:36He said, it's too early to tell what exactly Trump and Iran have agreed to or if they have agreed
00:41to much at all.
00:43Let's use that as our jumping off point for this conversation.
00:46We have been here before, maybe not exactly here, but there's been the prospect of a deal floated before,
00:51and we've seen that kind of come crashing down when we haven't seen corroboration on all points
00:56from the Iranians.
00:57Yeah, I will say this time does feel a little bit different because of the buy-in from so many
01:02countries
01:02in the Gulf Arab region.
01:04And even the most hawkish social media commentators, and this I'm referring specifically to UAE commentators,
01:12are referencing the fact that there is going to be some form of a breakthrough or of a deal as
01:17well.
01:17And the fact that President Trump, even in that true social post yesterday, explicitly said that, you know,
01:23the final framework needs sign-off from other countries, and there he listed all of the countries
01:28that had been involved, including the likes of UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt,
01:34and of course Pakistan, the main mediator, and then the big one, Israel.
01:38That suggests that there has been sort of a group push to get this over the line.
01:42Now, as you say, the details matter. It's been, you know, almost 12, 24 hours, I guess,
01:49since that post went up, and we still don't have a lot of detail as to what it pertains and
01:54what it includes.
01:55What we don't understand, though, is something that Iran themselves have been pushing for,
02:00which is a bifurcation between the first step of the process, which is a reopening of the straits,
02:06and then a deferral of sorts of all of the thornier topics around the nuclear file,
02:11the proxies, the militias, which are actually the meat of why the U.S. entered into the war in the
02:17first place.
02:18But what we don't understand is, and this is per President Trump's true social post,
02:23it would lead to some fully unconditional reopening of the straits,
02:28with a proviso that the U.S. would be allowed to maintain a military presence there,
02:32should the 60-day or 30-day ceasefire expire, and they would have to go back to military action.
02:41But at this point, you know, we're still waiting for more details on what exactly
02:44this multi-phased framework is going to include.
02:48Andrew, with the details that we do have, and those seem to be the same details members of Congress
02:53are getting based on their Twitter posts overnight, this is not making friends from a lot of people
02:58who are some pretty staunch allies of the president.
03:02Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, Senator Mike Johnson, and even former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
03:08compared it to the JCPOA that his administration pulled out of and then got in a Twitter spat
03:14with a White House official who basically told him to shut the mm up.
03:18So this was interesting.
03:20Talk to us about what this almost immediate backlash from some of President Trump's staunchest allies
03:25in Congress means.
03:27Yeah, I mean, certainly this is closer to the outcome that I think you would see a lot of Democrats
03:34wanting,
03:34which is to say, yes, it's closer to a return to the Obama-era Iran deal than it is to
03:43anything
03:44approaching the victory that folks like Lindsey Graham have been very strongly advocating for.
03:52I think, you know, certainly on the more hawkish parts of the party, you're seeing people who
03:57really want to have the U.S. go in, really take out Iranian nuclear capabilities and cause sort of
04:06maximum destruction in order to get the best bargaining position at the table.
04:13And clearly, that is not what's happening here.
04:17The polling on this war suggests that the public is very much not in line with that position.
04:26And so naturally, you're going to see some some disalignment between, you know, folks like
04:33Lindsey Graham, especially in Ted Cruz, who who want to see maximal U.S. involvement in this conflict.
04:41But with regards to, you know, the rest of Congress, I think Democrats have for a while now been trying
04:48to get in Iran war powers resolution over the line slowly, but surely been able to peel off more Republicans
04:56on the sort of isolationist, more America first, if you will, wing of the party.
05:04They just they were about to have a vote this past week and they pulled it because they were concerned
05:08that more Republicans would defect and vote to end the war.
05:12So I think, you know, at least a little bit, you're seeing domestic politics in the U.S.
05:20driving some of the administration's decision making here when it comes to we need to end
05:24this thing sooner rather than later, because when Congress returns from its recess in June,
05:32they're probably going to have that war powers vote.
05:35Mike Johnson can only hold it off for so long and it might be successful.
05:38And, you know, obviously, the Senate would struggle to pass that and Trump could veto it.
05:43But at the end of the day, that would be a huge symbolic blow to the administration.
05:49It would be the first time that a war powers resolution has managed to pass in the House.
05:54And I think it would reflect a lot of what we've been seeing in terms of public opinion as well
06:01and really just sort of dovetail with that and send a strong message about where lawmakers are on the war.
06:07Yeah, Andrew referencing there that tweet from Senator Cruz, he's saying,
06:10I'm deeply concerned about what we are hearing about an Iran deal being pushed by some voices in the administration.
06:16Jamana, let me turn to you, hearkening back to palliative cashgate from the Obama years.
06:21This was something the Republicans made a big deal about.
06:24The president on the campaign trail.
06:26The president on the campaign trail made a big deal about this as well.
06:28And so central to what we know of this plan or what we're piecing together,
06:31the plan is perhaps the unfreezing of, what, $100 billion worth of frozen assets.
06:38Or a portion.
06:39I think, yeah, or a portion thereof.
06:41How critical is this?
06:42Then I'm just curious more broadly about what we're hearing from in the region
06:46in terms of their response to what's being floated here.
06:48The president in a very rosy light painting the conversations that he had yesterday in the Oval Office.
06:52I wonder sort of how on board Gulf leaders, again, not speaking of them as a monolith,
06:56but those leaders with whom he spoke yesterday feel about the prospects of a deal like this one.
07:01Yeah, so a couple of things here.
07:03The war started three months ago.
07:05And I think you fast forward to today, and it's really remarkable that one of the main sticking points
07:09has been the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which was not a problem before the war started.
07:14So we are centralizing a lot of the discussions around a problem that didn't exist
07:19before the U.S. and Israel launched these military operations against Iran.
07:23So now we're in a situation where Iran have discovered that they have a lot of leverage
07:29over this key chokehold for the global economy,
07:32and they're not going to give it up without getting something in return.
07:35And for them, the incentive is clearly economic.
07:38And what they've been pushing for the last, well, several rounds of negotiations
07:43is for lifting of those sanctions so that they can get their oil free-flowing again
07:50without the risk of sanctions.
07:51And the second point is, as you say, the unfreezing of some of the assets.
07:55And you say they amount about $100 billion.
07:58Now here, there's been, I think, a lot of discussion back and forth
08:00about the extent of how much the U.S. are comfortable
08:04in terms of lifting the current restrictions.
08:09But what I've seen, the numbers that I've seen that have been reported,
08:13amounts around $20 to $25 billion, which is still a substantial stunt.
08:16But it's not necessarily handing over cash.
08:19It's just lifting of assets that have been frozen.
08:23Now, that's just one part of the discussion here.
08:26And I think to come back to your question about the Gulf of Arab states,
08:29they don't want to be handing Iran a gift here.
08:32But the alternative, and the alternative was, indeed, on Friday,
08:35it really did look like the U.S. were facing a big decision
08:40of whether to go down the diplomatic route
08:41or once again restart military hostilities.
08:43And I think the perception is that going down the hostilities route
08:47was just so much worse an option
08:50that the main goal had to be getting diplomacy and negotiations over the line
08:56to avert going back to a scenario
08:58where energy infrastructure and infrastructure in the region
09:01could once again be targeted.
09:04It's early days now because we still don't know what's in the deal.
09:07There will be a postmortem, and we will look back
09:09and see how the Gulf of Arab states are going to come out of this.
09:13But I think the perception now in the region
09:15is that there needs to be a full cessation of hostilities.
09:20And living in this frozen conflict
09:21with the straits still somewhat controlled by Iran
09:24was never going to be a solution that was going to be acceptable.
09:27So at least you get short-term visibility.
09:29Medium-term, long-term,
09:31I think there's still a lot of concern
09:33that this situation could once again flare up,
09:36especially if there's not a full resolution
09:38to some of the thornier topics that we spoke about,
09:40the proxies, the militia, and of course, the nuclear file.
09:43Andrew, if this does come together
09:45in kind of a deal like Jamona was just talking about,
09:48there is no guarantee to her point
09:50that Iran isn't going to change its mind
09:52if it's unhappy at some point down the line
09:54and close the strait,
09:55which to this point wasn't really an issue
09:57before this conflict started.
09:58Do you think when it comes to selling this agreement,
10:02not just to these Republicans
10:03who have been sounding off on Twitter,
10:05but when these Republicans go home
10:06and talk to their constituents,
10:08that that's going to be a harder sell?
10:10Do you think all these things
10:10the president has been hammering about
10:12are going to become liabilities
10:14when constituents who wanted America first,
10:16no intervention,
10:17and even the Iran hawks
10:18who wanted to take out the program
10:20realize we're kind of back to where we were before?
10:23Yeah, I mean, it's sort of a poison
10:28and a gun situation at this point,
10:29which is to say which causes the least amount of pain.
10:33And that's to say, right now,
10:35I think Republicans' main priority
10:37is ensuring that costs go down
10:39and gas prices stay down.
10:41And, you know, every day that this conflict goes on,
10:44the strait remains closed
10:46and oil isn't coming through,
10:48means pain at the pump for their voters
10:50and their constituents,
10:51and that's overwhelmingly
10:52what they're going to be hearing
10:54this coming week
10:55when they're back in their districts.
10:56And so the bottom line is
11:00always sort of a political risk
11:03for them to have the forbearance
11:05to let Trump continue to do this.
11:08And, you know, the alternative, obviously,
11:10is to openly break with him.
11:12And we've seen, you know, in Kentucky,
11:14the political consequences of that.
11:18Certainly, I think they're going to look
11:20at this deal, if not publicly,
11:22then privately, at least,
11:25as a boon, you know,
11:27politically for the midterms
11:28just because it means
11:29that much less headache
11:31in terms of gas prices
11:35and all the other supply chain issues
11:37that come along.
11:38As people go to the polls, yeah.
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