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00:00To the conflict in the Middle East where President Trump said in a social media post that a peace deal
00:04with Iran was nearing completion
00:06and that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would be announced shortly.
00:10Axios reported the pact would involve a 60-day extension of the ceasefire where the Strait would be reopened
00:16and Iran would be allowed to sell its oil.
00:19U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says there's been progress made on an outline that could open the Strait
00:24without tolls.
00:25And with addressing some of the key things that underpin what has been Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions in the past.
00:37Rubio is in India for a four-day visit for talks with senior Indian officials on issues ranging from energy
00:43to regional security.
00:45Today he spoke with his Indian counterparts.
00:47Some more to come, David and Christina.
00:48Thank you, Lisa.
00:50We're going to start with that breaking news.
00:51As we mentioned, the U.S. and Iran are reportedly close to signing a deal that would reopen the Strait
00:56of Hormuz.
00:57The White House says it hopes the differences between those two nations will be resolved in the coming hours
01:01and that a deal could be announced as early as today.
01:04President Trump posted that the agreement has been largely negotiated and will be announced shortly.
01:09Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke about it overnight on that trip he's taking to India.
01:13He said there's been significant progress.
01:15I think we've made some progress.
01:17I'm always cautious when I say that because you can agree to things on paper.
01:22They actually have to be implemented.
01:23You can agree to things in writing and then you actually have to go out and do it.
01:27And but but I do think perhaps there is the possibility that over the next few hours the world will
01:32get some good news,
01:33at least with regards to the straits and to and with regards to a process that can ultimately leave us
01:40where the president wants us to be.
01:42And that is a world that no longer has to be in fear or worry about an Iranian nuclear weapon.
01:48And and so I do think there's some good news on that front, but not final news on that front.
01:54Either the U.S. or Iran has released a copy of the reported deal.
01:57We don't know what's in it, but Axios cites a U.S. official who says the agreement involves a 60
02:02day ceasefire extension
02:03during which the Strait of Hormuz will be open with no tolls and Iran would agree to clear its mines.
02:08In exchange, the U.S. would lift the blockade and allow Iran to sell oil.
02:12There'd be negotiations on curbing Iran's nuclear program.
02:16And again, this is based on reports that neither the U.S. nor Iran has confirmed those details.
02:20Something missing out of those reports so far, David, is word on Iran's ballistic nuclear program
02:25that was able to wreak havoc throughout the region. Not something I've seen mentioned from readouts from either side.
02:30But we're going to ask those questions of Bloomberg News White House correspondent Jeff Mason
02:34and Bloomberg News Jerusalem reporter Dan Williams.
02:36Jeff, we want to start with you. First of all, we tried to give you a Sunday off, but the
02:39news cycle had other plans.
02:41Do we have any idea how close this is to the finish line?
02:44Any word on if we're going to hear from the president today?
02:47And how did this come together? Who was actually negotiating this?
02:50Because he had this big call with a bunch of Gulf leaders yesterday.
02:52It's unclear to me who was really the powerhouse behind this particular attempt at a deal.
02:59So a couple of things. We haven't gotten any updates on the president's schedule.
03:02There's always a possibility that he'll speak, but there's also always the possibility that he will just
03:07continue to release news over social media, which is what he did yesterday.
03:11I also think, you know, you're smart to note that we don't have a lot of details.
03:15I think it's also worth noting that the president has suggested that a deal was closed before and then that
03:21didn't end up happening.
03:22So a note of skepticism there that actually sort of ties in with what Secretary Rubio said,
03:27which is that at times they've gotten close on paper, but it hasn't materialized in terms of action.
03:33Lastly, just a bunch of open questions about the actual nitty gritty of what that deal is.
03:41What Axios reports that you noted before is interesting in that it sounds like it would go back in many
03:48ways to the status quo before the war.
03:50The strait being open, Iran being able to sell its oil, i.e.
03:54no blockade, and then tabling and going back to negotiations about its nuclear program.
04:00Will that be seen as a victory or a loss politically for President Trump?
04:05I think that's something that we'll be watching as we get more details in the coming hours and days.
04:10Dan Williams, I want to get your perspective on all of this.
04:13Again, we're kind of piecing together the reporting that we're getting from, yes, Bloomberg, of course,
04:16but other organizations, the Wall Street Journal and Axios, offering some detail on what might be in this plan.
04:21And I'm struck by what Axios reported, that there would be some resolution here to that Israel-Lebanon conflict.
04:26I'm curious if that's being reported in Israeli media and, indeed,
04:29what the response has been to the prospect of that happening from the Israeli government.
04:35That is the second front to this war and one that's most pressing for Israelis now,
04:40given the daily drumroll of fighting, the mounting death toll on both sides.
04:44It's something Israelis would find very hard to tolerate if, indeed,
04:48they would be expected to hold fire there, given the lack of any kind of conclusive achievement
04:54against Hezbollah, that the Israelis have dramatically expanded their buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
05:01What we've had in the last hour is an Israeli official who requested anonymity,
05:05saying that in that overnight conversation between the Prime Minister Netanyahu and the U.S. President Trump,
05:11the Israelis received an assurance that they would retain what they call freedom of action on all fronts
05:16against threats. So the question there would be whether the allies would agree that a threat is a threat
05:22that's worth Israel striking, even at the cost of whatever ceasefire emerges from this deal.
05:28Also, the Israelis are saying that Trump has assured them that any final deal with Iran would see the removal
05:33of all enriched uranium from Iran.
05:35Then the question is, if this is a ceasefire, is it a de facto end to the war,
05:41or is it another open-ended, liminal state of reduced action, increased diplomacy,
05:47without anything clearly conclusive?
05:50I think the Israelis are worried that this will be kicking a can down the street,
05:56the proverbial street, in order to get Gulf partners beyond the Eid al-Adha holiday,
06:01which is a few days away, Americans beyond the July 4th holiday,
06:04and indeed much of the world beyond the World Cup,
06:06the soccer tournament with the United States will be hosting in the coming six weeks.
06:14Jeff, to Dan's point, this does seem like, although it's being presented by the president on social media
06:19with the aplomb of something that has finality to it,
06:22it does seem like another stopgap measure,
06:24because one of the big things that seems to be outlying
06:27is there is already a disconnect between what U.S. officials are saying
06:32and what Iranian officials are saying about enriched uranium.
06:35Two U.S. officials told the New York Times
06:36that Tehran has agreed to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium,
06:40but three senior officials also told the Times
06:43that deal that's being negotiated says nothing about the fate of Iran's nuclear material,
06:47and that's something that will be laid out in a negotiation,
06:50a separate negotiation, 60 to 90 days down the road.
06:53Right. So lots of contradictory messaging there and questions.
06:58I will tell you just a little bit of color from my last week.
07:01On Thursday, the White House had put together a conference call about the Iran war
07:08and about a potential we thought was a potential deal
07:11and then pulled it down at the last minute.
07:13And that was sort of interesting and also suggestive of the fact that
07:17if they put it on at all, they had something to say.
07:21I also was in the Oval Office on that Thursday
07:24and asked the president about the Strait of Hormuz
07:27and whether or not he would be comfortable with Iran continuing to charge tolls,
07:31and he said, no, no tolls.
07:33Is that something that Iran is going to agree to going forward or not?
07:38That's also not entirely clear.
07:41So lots and lots of open questions,
07:43and really the only ones who have those answers are the folks at the top who aren't talking yet.
07:49Right, and apparently now you have the Omanis talking to Iran about a possible tolling system.
07:54I asked some many diplomats about that,
07:55and they said they are so outraged about what happened with those negotiations in Geneva
07:59that they're maybe putting some interest in there to antagonize Washington.
08:05Feels like another era ago with those negotiations.
08:07But Jeff, let me ask you how this is playing politically outside of the White House,
08:11but around Washington, D.C.
08:12and we heard from the former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Twitter writing,
08:16the deal being floated with Iran seems straight out of the Wendy Sherman, Robert Malley,
08:19Robert, I'm sorry, Ben Rhodes playbook.
08:22Pay the IRGC to build a WMD program and terrorize the world.
08:25Not remotely America first.
08:26He continues, it's straightforward.
08:28Open the dam straight.
08:29Deny Iran access to money.
08:30Take out enough Iranian capability so it cannot threaten our allies in the region.
08:35One of just many variations on a theme there.
08:38I think we saw a lot of similar tweets from Republican lawmakers as well,
08:41who, again, not having all of the facts, not knowing what's in this agreement,
08:44are really pushing back strongly on what may have been negotiated in the Oval Office yesterday.
08:49Indeed.
08:50And that's been a concern for conservatives and the more right-leaning part of President Trump's base
08:57for some time, that he got into this war for what they considered to be the right reasons,
09:02then saw a lot of political pressure because of the increase in fuel prices,
09:07the unexpectedly long time that this has taken,
09:11and the upcoming midterm elections hovering in the background,
09:15and now wondering if President Trump is just looking for an exit
09:19without actually achieving the objectives that he said he would do when he started the war.
09:24Noting, by the way, I would say I would note, by the way,
09:27that some of those objectives at the very beginning of the war were unclear.
09:30But certainly he has been consistent in saying from the very beginning
09:33and is continuing to say that he doesn't want Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon.
09:38And that's what former Secretary Pompeo is referencing there,
09:42and also former Ambassador John Bolton has said,
09:46may not be achieved with this deal and may not be anything even as strong
09:51as the Obama-era deal that President Trump withdrew the United States from
09:55and has been very, very critical of.
09:57Yeah, Dan, I'm wondering how regional allies are feeling about this kind of half measure
10:02because it almost feels like that could be more dangerous.
10:04I know Gulf countries are urgently trying to get that straight open.
10:08I know they've had a full-court press calling the White House.
10:10They were on this press call yesterday.
10:12Diplomats, I'm told, have been working the phones kind of nonstop
10:14to keep the president from restarting strikes on Iran.
10:17But where you're left, are people in the region feeling more or less secure
10:22if this is this kind of uneasy detente that this is left at for the time being?
10:28I think in the Gulf, given what they discovered in the early days of this war,
10:32that Iran was willing to open up a front with them directly at substantial costs,
10:37not just in terms of the flight of tourism and the flight of expats,
10:41but also blows to the lifeblood energy sector of those countries.
10:45I don't think they want to dice with that again.
10:47The Iranians made very clear that should there be a resumption of war,
10:50and it's worth remembering that in parallel to these talks,
10:53we had, at least in Israel, literal reminders every hour or so,
10:58major flyovers by the Air Force, presumably U.S. warplanes as well,
11:02preparing for that potential resumption, which now appears to be in advance,
11:07the potential of open warfare with Iran.
11:10For the Gulf countries being at Iran's doorstep,
11:13that was a pretty fearsome prospect,
11:15and it would appear they wanted to stave that off,
11:17at least in the coming days,
11:18certainly to get past this major Muslim holiday that's only a few days from now.
11:23So they will be looking at this.
11:25It would appear, I think we can describe this deal,
11:27as it's emerging from what we've been told,
11:30as a limited ceasefire around the Strait of Hormuz,
11:33which would ease energy transport and exports for everyone,
11:37including Iran,
11:38which would remove Iran's de facto chokehold from its part,
11:43from that waterway,
11:44and leave other issues to be discussed in the coming days and weeks.
11:49The big open question is how long U.S. forces will remain in the region.
11:52If and when we see Trump drawing them down,
11:54we will know that de facto,
11:56if not de jure,
11:57this really is the end of the war.
11:59Jeff, I want to go back to the latest,
12:01thank you for your attention to this matter,
12:02posed from the president.
12:03One line toward the end of it,
12:04when he says he's had this meeting with all of these Gulf leaders,
12:07yesterday in the Oval Office,
12:08then he says,
12:08separately I had a call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu of Israel,
12:11which likewise went very well.
12:14I'm curious what color you can give us
12:15on the state of the relationship between these two leaders,
12:18and as we've been talking about over the course of this conversation,
12:21there's a lot of hesitancy,
12:23perhaps anger at the way that the U.S. is approaching this stopgap,
12:27this resolution to the conflict.
12:29How is the stability of that relationship
12:31between the president and the prime minister
12:32so much as we know right now?
12:34Well, it's a complicated relationship for sure,
12:36and certainly Israel had a hand in talking President Trump
12:42into going into this war in the first place,
12:45reporting has shown,
12:46although obviously it was President Trump's decision
12:49and he decided to go with it.
12:51But he has been occasionally critical of Prime Minister Netanyahu
12:55and Israel's decisions during the course of this war.
12:59That said, they do share the same objectives
13:02about preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.
13:06And I think the question, again,
13:09and I'm sorry to keep sort of answering your questions
13:12with more questions myself,
13:13the question will be,
13:14is Israel on board with some of the elements of this deal,
13:19including, as you rightly asked of Dan,
13:22the aspect of Hezbollah and Lebanon.
13:26Yeah, and actually, Jeff, we're running short on time,
13:27so I do want to kick it over to Dan,
13:29who wants to answer David's question as well.
13:32He just told us, so Dan, what you got?
13:34I think I would direct you
13:36to the Prime Minister's Twitter account a few hours ago.
13:38He hasn't commented on the Iran talks.
13:40He did remind everyone
13:42that Trump is Israel's best friend in the White House
13:44and commenting on that shooting at the White House.
13:46I think there's an implicit message there
13:47to the Israeli base
13:49that Trump is the best deal
13:50that Israel can hope to get,
13:52that what Trump decides Israel will have to fall in line with,
13:56there's simply no one else to turn to.
13:58And I think that really shows who calls the shots here.
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