00:00You know, we've been describing all of the developments around the straits the last 24 hours or so,
00:06and there have been some notable developments.
00:08But let me just ask you whether you believe now that we are in a ceasefire,
00:14or is it one step further than that, in that it is still a state of conflict,
00:19but actually just a frozen conflict for the time being?
00:24It is still a state of conflict.
00:26There has been some pause in it.
00:30The status of further negotiations is unclear.
00:33And there's been a lot of speculation specked by the facts on the ground
00:38that on the part of Trump, as he's concerned in the decision-making on this operation,
00:46it's just the time that has been taken in order to regroup, think a little bit,
00:50but probably it hasn't been just enough time, there's two weeks that we have seen.
00:56So the ceasefire has been extended, and that was the American initiative in the first place.
01:03Iran, just as we've heard recently, played along.
01:06At first, Iran just said that there is no point in continuing these negotiations,
01:09because even this fragile ceasefire, it was breached.
01:14The US blamed Iran for that, Iran blamed the US, the blockade imposed by the US on Iran,
01:20something that Iran would not expect if the US were sincere about the negotiations.
01:25So it more and more looks just like a pause in order to regroup and renew the hostilities.
01:32And I don't think it's going to work, the recent statements that is going to go on indefinitely until Iran
01:39breaks.
01:41What do you think is more likely, another round of discussions or another round of hostilities?
01:47I think another round of hostilities is more likely.
01:50It looks like Trump has been looking for a casus belly in order to prove it also to the allies,
01:56that he's got a just cause in order to continue with that,
02:00because see, Iran is not agreeing to negotiate.
02:04Iran is also all ready, and I think the stance in Tehran is that the hostilities are going to resume
02:09sooner than later,
02:10and it has been proven by the blockade, which is not, by the way, airtight,
02:16but still is in place, provided by the United States.
02:21What I wanted to say, the point I wanted to make here,
02:24is that this not at all airtight blockade that's being imposed on Iran
02:30is not going to yield any significant results.
02:33They are now saying it will take just two weeks for Iran's economy to break.
02:39I don't think this is happening.
02:40And one of the reasons here is that probably Trump needs to pay that visit to President Xi in China
02:48in the first place that he has been postponing,
02:50because with Chinese support, probably not military, but diplomatic and financial,
02:57Iran will be able to get over this blockade.
03:02Okay, I just want to go back to what you said about the bigger likelihood of a return to hostilities.
03:09What can the U.S. and Israel achieve in another round of hostilities that was not already achieved
03:16in the first seven weeks of this war, six weeks before the ceasefire?
03:20Well, it has become clear that a so-called regime change is not taking place.
03:26People are not pouring into the streets to overthrow whatever remains of the Islamic Republic
03:31the way we used to know it.
03:32So now I think the calculation is that Iran's economy is going to break and either Iran is going to
03:41ask for help or maybe disgruntled people are still going to make the desperate move pouring into the streets and
03:49demanding something from the regime, demanding for these negotiations.
03:53I think that that first option that I named is the more likely one, that Iran will yield to the
04:01need to negotiate.
04:04But it doesn't seem like a plan that is going to work, especially because apart from the Iran's economy,
04:12the whole economy, the whole global economy is suffering and that cannot go indefinitely,
04:16because that's a blockade not only against the Strait of Hormuz and Iran, but that's de facto a blockade against
04:23the whole world.
04:27I want to go back to what you said about China and what role you think China will play in
04:33somehow bringing a resolution to this conflict.
04:37And actually, the question is, do they want to see a resolution to the conflict right now?
04:41Because they are, in relative terms, a winner from the disruption that's going on.
04:49Not as much of a winner.
04:51I think in China, the perception is that it is indeed a part of a larger plan by the United
04:58States to counter China,
05:00just not starting from the Straits of Malacca.
05:02Although we already start hearing some news in the Straits of Malacca on the U.S. effort to counter China
05:09right here,
05:09it has started in the Strait of Hormuz.
05:12So I'm sure that China does not like seeing that picture at all.
05:15And it puts every effort to help Iran.
05:20It has put a lot of effort so far diplomatically.
05:25Pakistan for sure has its diplomatic backing along with Saudi Arabia to be the mediator in this situation.
05:31China is likely to be supplying Iran with not the military technology per se, but reconnaissance, the intelligence.
05:40That's for sure, along with Russia, probably.
05:43And in terms of financial support, China has been and will be supporting Iran for that economy not to collapse,
05:52because it, again, sees it as a part of a larger plan to counter China itself.
05:57on the U.S.
Comments