00:00The ceasefire came after the urging of Pakistan, a key mediator.
00:04Islamabad has offered to host negotiations between Washington and Tehran on Friday.
00:09For more, let's bring in Horizons Middle East and Africa anchor Jumana Versace in Dubai.
00:13And Jumana, how likely is it that this will translate to a durable ceasefire?
00:21That is the big question on everyone's minds, Haslinda.
00:24And I will say it has been a dramatic 12 hours here in the region.
00:28I think everybody went to sleep, perhaps anticipating or expecting the worst after President Trump's latest true social post in
00:37which he threatened to kill an entire civilization.
00:41And, of course, he woke up to the news that a two-week ceasefire had been agreed to.
00:45Now, this after an intense diplomatic effort put forward and spearheaded by Pakistan.
00:51And as we understand, and even President Trump credited China to bringing Iran to the negotiating table.
00:57So a lot of back-channel diplomacy has gone through throughout the course of the evening.
01:02President Trump putting up a post about 90 minutes before that 8 p.m. Eastern time deadline,
01:08saying that they have agreed to the complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
01:14And on the back of that, the U.S. will suspend their military operations for a couple of weeks.
01:19Now, it's important to note here that Iran, too, the Iranian foreign minister, also put up their, well, agreements, or
01:28their principles.
01:30And they have said that they are subscribing to this ceasefire.
01:34But for as long as this ceasefire holds, for the next two weeks, any vessels looking to pass through the
01:40Strait of Hormuz will still need to get approval from the Iran armed forces.
01:44They've also overnight released their 10-point principles for which they would like to see a full cessation of hostilities.
01:52And if you look through those 10-point proposals, many of them are non-starters as far as the U
01:57.S. and broader Gulf regions are concerned.
02:00So I think there are still a lot of questions at this point as to whether this ceasefire can actually
02:05translate into a durable and permanent end to the hostilities.
02:11But one thing we know for sure is that it provides a reprieve and it walks us away from the
02:16brink of, you know,
02:18truly an escalatory situation where military operations keep ramping up and we keep seeing the destruction of civilian infrastructure.
02:26Dan, talk to us about the role that Pakistan has played in this.
02:28I mean, is this a huge surprise, a country that has never quite negotiated a peace deal before?
02:34Yeah, I mean, Pakistan emerged in the past couple of weeks as a key interlocutor between the U.S. and
02:42Iran.
02:43And it's really been in the making over the past year.
02:46If you look back to early last year, Pakistan has sort of been isolated by the Biden administration,
02:52which had really poured a lot of its efforts into courting India as a counterweight to China.
02:58Fast forward to last April, May, you had the fighting with India.
03:04You had Trump intervening in that conflict.
03:08And Pakistan was just ready to declare that Trump helped broker this ceasefire with India.
03:15And India was not ready to declare that, as we know.
03:19And it led to the U.S. really a downturn in ties with India and also very close ties with
03:27Pakistan.
03:27So in particular, their army chief, Asim Muneer, went to the White House a couple of times.
03:34So and not to mention, we had a story in this a couple of weeks ago that Pakistan used crypto
03:41diplomacy to also boost ties with Trump's family business as well.
03:47So all of those things led to Pakistan being in a good position now to help broker this deal.
03:55Remember, they said a lot of stake for Pakistan, too.
03:57It is on the brink of an energy crisis.
04:00Yeah, certainly.
04:02Economically, they need that oil and gas flowing.
04:04So they are right next their neighbors with Iran.
04:08They have a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia.
04:10They also have close ties with China and they have close ties with the U.S.
04:14So they're sitting in a good position with all of those key players.
04:19And as you mentioned, they need that energy.
04:21And so the more they could play a role, the more they can secure supplies that they need to keep
04:27their own population.
04:28And then you talked about China.
04:29Some say perhaps China was the real power broker here, that it was China that actually sealed the deal, so
04:34to speak.
04:35Yeah, there is reporting from The New York Times and others that there was a last minute intervention by China
04:40to get involved.
04:41We know that Pakistan and China had a joint peace proposal last week.
04:47Of course, China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil.
04:50They would presumably be involved in helping to finance any reconstruction after the war.
04:55And they're just a key economic partner for Iran altogether.
04:58So we're still trying to report that out, what kind of exactly went down behind the scenes and what pressure
05:05China put on.
05:05What role, if any, might China play in this?
05:09Well, China's been floating the Iranian economy now since the JCPOA, since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
05:16They put $400 billion into Iran's $400 billion economy and have not seen the return on investment.
05:23And if you look at the amount of oil that China depends on from Iran, they do have a say.
05:29Without China, without Russia, Iran is really left friendless in a way.
05:34And, you know, the way they've treated their divorce attorney, Qatar, and the divorce attorney, Oman, during this conflict has
05:41further isolated the regime.
05:42So China played a huge role.
05:44And this is in China's interest.
05:46It's also in China's interest and Russia's that Iran does not leave the non-nuclear proliferation treaty.
05:52And that's something that they threatened to do in this conflict.
05:54And they've walked away from that.
05:56And I do believe that's because of China and Russia, Russia's pressure on the regime.
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