00:00This optimism, it seems pervasive for markets today.
00:04It started in the U.S. yesterday, but U.S. futures, incidentally, pointing a little bit higher, suggesting this has
00:09further to run.
00:10Yes, so they're not pointing as high as we've seen the rebound today in European stocks.
00:15But as you say, we saw a bit of that starting yesterday.
00:18So it does look set to continue.
00:20We are seeing reasonably big gains in the stock 600 this morning, up about 2.7%.
00:26I think it is important to note, though, that when we look at how much retrenchment there's been since the
00:34start of the Iran war at the beginning of March,
00:37this doesn't even go halfway to repairing that.
00:41So it is optimistic, but it's not fully recovered by any means.
00:46There's still so much uncertainty.
00:48We have seen an element of whiplash before in terms of how close to a resolution we are.
00:55This does seem a bit more concrete.
00:56We sort of have a bit more of a time frame for those intentions.
00:59But I think we'll have to wait and see, obviously, what Trump says later today.
01:03I think markets are sort of tentatively optimistic.
01:05We are seeing, you know, broad-based rebounds.
01:08I was reading some of my colleagues mentioning that because volumes weren't actually that high in Asia today,
01:15it does suggest that it's a little bit of a shallow rally.
01:18It's not, you know, fully priced in because oil has come back.
01:22It is below $100 a barrel, but it is still incredibly elevated from where we were.
01:27And a lot of people on holiday, apparently.
01:28What I really need to know more when there is, is my mortgage going to come down now?
01:33I wouldn't be so sure about it coming down.
01:35But we are seeing traders really paring back their bets on hikes.
01:41I have to keep reminding myself we are now talking about hikes.
01:44For so long, we were always talking about cuts.
01:46But there's now fewer than two rate hikes fully priced in for the end of the year.
01:52We started the week with, you know, close to three.
01:56So there's quite a significant retrenchment there.
01:59But we are still looking to tightening compared to the easing that had been expected, you know, for over the
02:07past year.
02:08Actually, if you if you were in the US, then people are starting to add to their bets on Fed,
02:14the chances of Fed rate cut, which and in ECB,
02:19we're also looking at the tightening expectations paring back.
02:22So going in the right direction, but not still not back where we were by any means.
02:26So President Trump could yet get his rate cut this year.
02:29Moena, thank you very much.
Comments