- 5 months ago
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00:00Dan, I want to start with you. Since you're on the ground there, part of the problem throughout
00:04this conflict has been different messaging from both within these parties and cross-talking
00:08between them. We heard the White House press secretary say they are going to have talks.
00:13Iran has said they haven't agreed to talks. Will they be talking? What's going on? What
00:17are you hearing? Yeah, I mean, the confusion is absolutely palpable here on the ground
00:24in Islamabad as well. The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas al-Rakshi, is indeed in Islamabad having
00:32meetings with Pakistani officials as we speak. Now, what remains to be seen is if the foreign
00:37minister will be meeting with the U.S. delegation, which, as you mentioned, is expected to arrive
00:42in Islamabad at some point this weekend. The two sides are really far apart on a lot of issues.
00:49Of course, the control of the Strait of Hormuz remains the sort of central sticking point
00:54that's holding off talks between the two sides. I think what you may end up seeing here in
01:00Islamabad is sort of, you know, each side kind of arrives, passes messages to the Pakistanis
01:06who are acting as the intermediary in these negotiations, and then they go their separate
01:10ways and sort of continue to talk about talking, if you will. But again, much remains to be seen.
01:16It's still only Saturday here in Islamabad, so we'll see what happens.
01:21Joshua Ingrove, let me go to you next. I'm curious about who's going and who's not
01:24going. So we have Secretary of State Marco Rubio, also the national security advisor, archivist
01:28as well, I should note, remaining here in Washington, D.C. J.D. Vance, the vice president,
01:32not going as well. Here's what the White House Press Secretary Caroline Levin had to say about
01:35that yesterday. The vice president, the secretary of state, will be waiting here in the United
01:41States for updates. And the vice president, I understand, is on standby and will be willing
01:45to dispatch to Pakistan if we feel it's a necessary use of his time. Josh, you're traveling with
01:51the president. And I'm curious what the administration's perspective on these talks is, how much optimism
01:55they have that this is going to lead to not only a ceasefire, but I guess before that,
01:59just a meeting itself.
02:02Yeah, David, good morning and thank you. Yeah, I am traveling with him. Unfortunately,
02:05I'm not on the Mar-a-Lago guest list, you can imagine. So I apologize. I look like I'm being
02:09held in a nondescript location by the emperor of Marriott. Bear with me here. This is life in West
02:17West. That's right. That's right. That's right. The White House, on the one hand, I think, is
02:21wanting to signal disinterest in these talks. If they wanted to put a foot down on them, they would
02:25have sent vans. The fact that they're not, I think, is a signal they want to send. I don't know
02:30how
02:30material it is, though, because Wyckoff and Kushner, of course, have a pretty direct, literally direct
02:36line to the president and are pretty empowered to do that. There's been some sort of frustration in
02:40American circles that they believe that their delegation is being sent and empowered to talk
02:47and negotiate there. Of course, one of the stags that we've heard from American officials is that
02:51they think that the Iranians are not able to do that, in part, out of security concerns in the
02:56undisclosed location of the supreme leader. They don't, you know, so they think they're hitting a
03:00logjam on that. And so I think expectations are low. The fact that on the American side of sort of
03:05some sort of immediate breakthrough, the fact that talks are happening, I suppose, are a positive.
03:10I think it's important just to remember, as we noted there, but just to emphasize it,
03:14the standoff on the strait is sort of a chicken and egg scenario, right? What we have here is the
03:20strait was closed suddenly again by Iran because of the blockade. Trump says the blockade is until
03:27they get a deal, including opening the strait. So, you know, it's a battle of wills right now,
03:32whether that particular piece will open. And there were a lot of great things on the terminal
03:36in the past few days about the mounting pressures on the energy markets in particular,
03:41and how long we can sort of, you know, run on reserves until this thing really starts to
03:45cascade through the economy.
03:47And I want to ask you about how this is being perceived in the region, because obviously we
03:52talk about the Gulf is not a monolith, and we know that. But the GCC states, you know, recently
03:57they've been a little quieter than they were when, you know, they were actively under fire from Iran.
04:01I don't know what you've heard, but diplomats I've spoken to in the region don't have a lot of
04:06confidence in these talks. They don't have a lot of confidence in Pakistan as a mediator.
04:10Do they think the U.S. is approaching this the right way to end this conflict anytime soon?
04:16Yeah, good morning. So, look, I mean, you're absolutely right. And Josh and Dan sort of
04:19alluded to this perfectly. First of all, the strait of Ramuz remains the sticking point here. But I've
04:25been back in Dubai for a week now, and I've been meeting some officials and trying to understand
04:29what the perspective is or how it's changed over the past couple of weeks or so, certainly since
04:34the ceasefire was announced. And what really stood out to me was we reported earlier, about a week
04:41ago, that Gulf officials and some Western officials believe that reaching a deal between the U.S. and
04:48Iran would take about six months. And that was solidified to me when I arrived in Dubai. Speaking to
04:54some officials, they don't think that things are going to go back to direct firings over capital
05:00cities in the GCC. But they do think that the Iranians will take this as long as possible and
05:07not come to concessions. And I'm just seeing some Arabic media outlets reporting here on my screen.
05:14And this is, you know, Dan is obviously there, but this is not verified reporting by Bloomberg. But some
05:19media, Arabic media reports suggest that Araqshi in Islamabad is suggesting that the Iranians would
05:28rather deal with J.D. Vance, that the Iranians are not going to come to concessions, and that
05:34they're sticking to the 10 points that they've laid out initially. Essentially no compromise. And that
05:41brings into the question the double blockade that we're seeing across the Strait of Ramuz and what
05:45contingency plans those GCC countries are considering to sort of avoid that and get their
05:51oil shipments across.
05:53Abir, I want to ask you about the state of Iran today, Iranian leadership. And something the
05:58president brings up here in the U.S. a lot is that there's a lot of fractions there. It's not
06:03a
06:03unified voice coming from Iranian leadership right now. There was a great piece in The Times this week
06:08about the Supreme Leader, just about his health, how he's doing. And I'll quote a bit from it.
06:12He was gravely wounded. He's mentally sharp and engaged, according to four senior Iranian officials
06:17familiar with his health. One leg was operated on three times. He's awaiting a prosthetic. He had
06:21surgery on one hand and is slowly regaining function. His face and lips have been burned
06:25severely, making it difficult for him to speak, the officials said, adding that eventually he will
06:29need plastic surgery. So confirming what we've heard from the administration here in the U.S., that he
06:33was injured in one of these attacks, what is the latest that we know about sort of who is in
06:39control, who is kind of leading the charge for the Iranians when it comes to these talks and
06:42trying to find some solution here?
06:44Yeah. And look, I saw that piece as well. And it sort of, again, brings into light the
06:50conversation that we've had earlier at the start of this. We're about to enter the 60th day
06:56of this war and no sign from the new Khamenei as of yet. And this article sort of explains why
07:03that is. And he remains in a hidden location. There were a lot of reports about his health and
07:07more he is. But it remains, the people that remain in charge that President Trump refers
07:14to as the new people that are sort of more rational, the new regime that he refers to
07:19are those ones that are going to Islamabad. At the forefront of those are Foreign Minister
07:25Abbas Aragji, who is in Islamabad today. There are reports about him likely going to Oman next,
07:31possibly Russia as well. Those are unverified. Yet Oman was obviously a key mediator before all of
07:38this started. But at the forefront, those people are the people that we keep hearing about. You've
07:44got Aragji, you've got Qalbaf, who's also part of the delegation that is in charge of those talks
07:53in Islamabad this week, David. Dan, you heard Abir say that people are thinking this could go on for
08:00six months. Are you ready to hang out in Pakistan for six months? And I also want to ask you,
08:05what
08:05is at stake for the Pakistanis? They've really put themselves out there. They're very proud of hosting
08:09this talks. This is, I don't want to say a first first, but in recent memory, this is the first
08:13time
08:13they've been in this position. If it doesn't work, and if it continues not to work, do they lose face
08:18on
08:18the diplomatic stage? Well, to your first question, I mean, you know, Islamabad is just absolutely
08:26overrun with journalists at the moment, sort of in this, you know, hurry up and wait mode, just waiting
08:31to see what happens. So we'll be here as long as we're welcome. You know, that being said, I mean,
08:37for Pakistan, you're absolutely right. I mean, so much is at stake here. You know, this government has
08:42really positioned itself, gone out of its way to position itself as the go-between between these two
08:48warring nations. It's in a really quite unique position right now in the world of having positive
08:54relations with all sides of this conflict, essentially. Of course, President Trump and the
08:58leadership in Pakistan are quite close. Pakistan has good relations with Iran as well. Pakistan has
09:05good relations with China and other, a large number of the Gulf countries as well that are all deeply
09:10involved in this conflict. So it is in a unique position. It has invited the two sides here once already
09:16and is really sort of putting all its chips on the table and trying to bring everybody together.
09:22And Pakistan itself also has a lot to lose if this war continues. I mean, this is a country that
09:27is
09:27itself economically on the rocks. It's on an IMF program. It has fuel shortages that are being
09:34exacerbated by the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. So it too has an interest and a stake in ending
09:41this war. So it definitely does want things to wind up soon. Now, whether that happens in the coming
09:47days, we'll certainly wait and see. Josh, we don't have a ton of time left, but we talked earlier
09:53about the fact that Vance and Rubio are not going. And I've referenced this a little bit. It's the
09:59inadequacy of the players even going to these talks. You know, in diplomacy, little things really matter.
10:05And the fact that Iran's foreign minister is there, the U.S. Secretary of State is not. His equivalent
10:10is not going to these talks. How does the White House think they're going to get progress if they're
10:14not showing up kind of seriously for the debate? I mean, Trump likes leverage. I'm sure he sees
10:21potential leverage and sort of holding back a chess piece that he can then deploy. But at the same time,
10:28Wyckoff has a remarkably unusual role by comparison to past administrations. So, you know,
10:34this is true. That's a good point. And to say nothing of Kushner. So, you know, this is not,
10:38I suppose, in some ways, all that wild. You know, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has not played a huge
10:44role in these talks that has left the impression that he is somewhat, you know, removed from this.
10:50I think that that's an interesting dynamic in the palace intrigue sort of perspective. But as for the
10:54president, you know, sources have insisted that he's not bored with this, but he does not appear
10:59overly interested. On the flight down last night, he did not talk to us. He was
11:03truthing or tweeting about, you know, renovations of fountains and what they're doing to the
11:08reflecting pool in Washington, D.C. He was talking about crowds at his inauguration the day before
11:13that. I mean, he is on so many other different subjects right now. It does not feel like he's,
11:18you know, facing a ton of urgency. Meanwhile, he is starting to really feel a pinch, not only of
11:22energy prices, but a pull declines, right, domestically at home. So that is, speaking of leverage,
11:28what Iran thinks it has.
11:29So that is,