00:00What exactly is the White House trying to get out of this weekend's talks?
00:05Well, they're trying to lay the groundwork for and eventually achieve a longer term peace deal
00:11in a nutshell. Right now, of course, there's a two week ceasefire, which the president announced
00:16earlier this week. And what he would like is to have something longer term. So by sending Vice
00:21President Vance, he's sending the second highest official in his government to try and hammer that
00:27out. There are a bunch of hurdles, not least of which the fact that Iran is now saying that they
00:32would like to have their assets unfrozen and to have a ceasefire in Lebanon before even going to
00:38the talks. So that is certainly hanging over this, even as President or Vice President Vance is in the
00:43air. But if if they proceed, then the overall goal is to get something that's longer term and to try
00:50to do so in the next two weeks. What would a successful weekend meeting look like? Like,
00:56what precise objectives would we be reading about on Monday morning where you would deem it a success?
01:03You know, I think probably a success would be if they don't fail, if they don't say we're done
01:08and we're not going to continue and the ceasefire is over. I mean, that's a pretty low bar. And yet,
01:15given the fact that there's a question mark now as to whether they'll even proceed after Iran's
01:20latest demands, I think that that's probably that would probably be seen as a success. No doubt others
01:26would like to see more. But let's be clear, you can't get all of the points that they both that
01:32both sides want hammered out in a weekend. But if they get started, if they establish a decent working
01:38relationship, that alone will be progress from the talks that were going on right before the war
01:44started, which were led by Steve Woodcoff and Jared Kushner.
01:47You know, it's it's this. So this this fragile truce was announced earlier this week, you know,
01:55more than two days ago at this point. And and then late yesterday, the president warned Iran against
01:59charging tolls. He said there are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz
02:04Strait. They better not be. And if they are, they better stop now. He also told the New York Post
02:08on Friday
02:09that U.S. warships are being reloaded with, quote, the best ammunition to launch fresh attacks if the
02:14talks faltered. How is this? I don't know if this is the art of the deal, if this is part
02:21of the
02:22negotiation strategy, but it doesn't seem like things are totally moving in the right direction.
02:27Well, and the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is not entirely open yet either is not in line with
02:32what
02:33the president said he wanted in order for a in order to agree to a ceasefire. Yeah, he's leaving plenty
02:39of
02:40options out there for himself. And that's one reason why he's leaving forces in the region. Again, this is a
02:46temporary truce. This is a temporary ceasefire. If they don't come up with a deal, then the president has said
02:52the shooting will start again. And that threat, of course, is hanging over these talks.
02:57I wanted to go there next. Just talk about how seriously is the threat of escalation? How serious
03:04is the escalation if the talks do fail? I mean, I think it's certainly serious. The president has
03:10said so. And the president has gone back and forth in terms of what he's really wanted, whether he
03:16wanted to escalate, whether he wanted things to end. The fact, again, that these talks are actually
03:21happening and that he agreed on a ceasefire on Tuesday before following through on his threat to
03:26bomb the Iranian civilization and get rid of bridges and civilian infrastructure and using very, very
03:35harsh rhetoric in that pledge is was seen as a huge sign of progress. But that doesn't take away all
03:44of
03:44the hurdles that remain. And it doesn't make a weekend negotiation any easier. Jeff, if we if we sort
03:50of boil this down to the reason we think that the U.S. went to war in the U.S.
03:58and Israel went to war
03:59with Iran in the first place, it was about nuclear weapons and the ability for Iran to actually get a
04:04get a nuclear weapon. How does that factor into what we've heard from Iran with what they want to be
04:10able to do versus the U.S. demand for that enrichment to stop? Where's the daylight there?
04:15Well, that certainly is one of the bigger objectives. I would add, though, Tim, that the
04:21objectives weren't entirely spelled out at the beginning of this war. But you're certainly
04:26right to pinpoint that one. And that is something that the president has said for for a long time,
04:31that he doesn't want Iran to have the ability to to build and have a nuclear weapon. So to your
04:37questions about the specifics, how do they figure that out? Iran still has uranium and it's in the
04:44ground. And the president has suggested that the United States and Iran can work together to dig
04:49that up. I don't know if that's something that Iran would agree to. It is interesting to compare
04:55where we are now with where the world was with the JCPOA agreement, the Iranian nuclear deal that was
05:03forged during the Obama administration, which President Trump was very critical of and eventually
05:08took the United States out of. That included international monitoring of Iran's nuclear program
05:15and of that uranium. So perhaps monitoring would be back on the table. Not sure if that's something
05:20Iran would agree to or not. All of these, again, are questions and are points that they'll have to hammer
05:26out at the at the talks. Jeff, you've been following this for a while. We were talking with a prior
05:31guest
05:32about how global trade has been kind of it's changed indefinitely. And I'm curious how your view
05:40has kind of evolved as the conflict has evolved. Does it seem like we're closer to the end,
05:48a resolution than maybe we were a few weeks ago? Or is the momentum heading in the other direction?
05:54Oh, we're certainly closer. I mean, the fact that they've got a ceasefire is is closer. But that
06:01doesn't mean that the ceasefire is going to last. That is that is an unanswerable question at this
06:05point. It just depends entirely on how these talks go and what other developments happen in the
06:10meantime. The the Lebanon peace has been hanging over the ceasefire and hanging over these talks ever
06:17since President Trump announced it. So that is something that's we'll have to we'll just have to
06:22see if they hammer that out and to see what it's to see to what extent Israel plays balls plays
06:28ball on
06:29that as well. But, you know, broadly, and I think you saw this in the market reaction after the
06:34ceasefire was announced, people see this as progress. But there have been times throughout
06:39this war where people have seen progress or have had the the impression that the president was leading
06:45towards an off ramp only for him to pull back and go in the other way and use escalatory language.
06:50So all of that are things that people should consider when they're trying to decipher where where things
06:55are going next. A little after lunchtime, Jeff, the president saying in a post on his social media
07:00network, the Iranians don't seem to realize they have no cards other than a short term extortion of
07:04the world by using international water rays. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate.
07:09And he signed that president, Donald J. Trump. It does seem like that is a pretty big card,
07:14the Strait of Hormuz. Just 45 seconds here. Like that is the card.
07:18I couldn't say it any better, Tim. That's the card. And they're playing it. And they know that they have
07:23that card. And the president can say that he wants them to open it. And he can say that he
07:28wants to
07:29have control over it or he wants to have joint control over it. But the geography is such that
07:34that is their area of the world. And they know that. And they have seen the impact that having
07:40control over it has had over the last five to six weeks. And that's something they're going to hold
07:45onto and tell or unless they are given something in exchange.
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